In a move that really caught me by surprise, the Braves sent 2 (of what I assumed to be 2 of the 3 top candidates) Starting Pitching candidates, Bryce Elder and Ian Anderson, back to MiLB camp. The surprise wasn’t in the actual move, rather the timing of the move. This type of move is normally reserved for players on MiLB invites, players that are buried on a depth chart, or players that are not on the 40-man roster or do not have MLB experience. If this were a multiple choice test, the test-taker would have had to bubble in “E ” for N/A.
There’s a possibility that Ian and Elder are just being sent to MiLB camp to work on a few things, but I’m not sure I see it that way. Both Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd have looked lightyears better in all facets. However, the biggest difference I’ve noticed is that both Shuster and Dodd’s comfortability with the new pitch clock, which isn’t actually new to them. While Shuster looks like he just tolerates it, Dodd looks like he’s meant to not think and just sling whatever number the catcher throws up. I don’t think this aspect of the game has been discussed enough and I think there’s real value in having a good pitcher that’s already comfortable pitching under the new rules.
Other Braves Reassigned to MiLB Camp
Early yesterday, I mentioned that we’d likely see more moves, and while I did not expect Elder or Anderson, cutting down camp normally happens around the midway point so the players competing for actual roster spots can get more looks. Here’s the rest of the list that was sent back to MiLB camp:
Overall, 10 players were reassigned and none are really surprising. The only one worth questioning is Adeiny Hechavarria. Rarely do veterans on MiLB deals with a ST invite get reassigned so quickly, but my guess is that AA is giving Hech an opportunity to get picked up by another team and if he doesn’t, he can accept his place at AAA.
Here’s the full list of the 42 Players that are left in Braves MLB ST Camp:
*Because Tyler Matzek and Huascar Ynoa have not been put on the 60-Day IL, theh must be considered to be “in camp”. At least, that’s what I’m going with I’ve scoured and I’m not sure who I’d be missing.
- Pitchers (20): Kolby Allard, Nick Anderson, Max Fried, Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jimenez, Dylan Lee, Lucas Luetge, Collin McHugh, A.J. Minter, Charlie Morton, Michael Soroka, Jackson Stephens, Spencer Strider, Michael Tonkin, Kyle Wright, Kirby Yates, Jesse Chavez, Jared Shuster, Dylan Dodd, and Danny Young
- Catchers (4): Travis D’Arnaud, Sean Murphy, Ryan Casteel, Joe Hudson
- Infielders (8): Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Vaughn Grissom, Orlando Arcia, Austin Riley, Ehire Adrianza, Braden Shewmake, Yolmer Sanchez
- Outfielders (8): Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II, Eddie Rosario, Marcell Ozuna, Sam Hilliard, Eli White, Jordan Luplow, Kevin Pillar.
If there are no injuries on Opening Day, the Braves should have *3 Starting Pitchers, 7 Relief Pitchers, 2 Catchers, 5 Infielders, and 4 Outfielders locked in, which total 21 locked spots.
*At this point in spring, I’m guessing that Kyle Wright will start the year on the IL with hopes of pitching at some point in the 2nd week of the season. It seems very likely that the Braves will need to find 2, not 1, SP to break camp with the team.
The 5 Roster Spot Battles
Outfield and/or Infield Reserve (2): Jordan Luplow, Eli White, Sam Hilliard, Kevin Pillar, Ehire Adrianza, Yolmer Sanchez, and Braden Shewmake.
Starting Pitcher (2): Jared Shuster & Dylan Dodd (Allard & Soroka, both injured).
Relief Pitcher (1): Jesse Chavez, Michael Tonkin, Jackson Stephens
Predicting the Unpredictable:
When camps get near the end, cusp players get released and what was trash for another team might be some serious booty for another. Let it be known that I think an external option, especially at SS, is highly likely. However, if we’re just talking internally, my predictions for the roster battles are:
- SP: Shuster and Dodd
- RP: Michael Tonkin
- OF/IF Reserve: Sam Hilliard and Ehire Adrianza
I think AA will start the year playing the option game and neither Sam Hilliard or Michal Tonkin have MiLB options. Ehire Adrianza provides quite a deal of insurance as he can play all over the field, providing some additional flexibility that Orlando Arcia cannot provide.
Adding 2 SPs with 0 MLB experience to the back-end of an Opening Day rotation is a serious risk, but both pitchers have thrown really well and it’s such an odd thing to say, but both have more experience with the pitch clock and could provide their cohorts with some much needed adjustment advice.
Baptism By Fire: Braves First 2 Weeks of Real Baseball
The Braves play their first game of the season on March 30th against the Nationals on the road. Like most years, the next day is an off day to act as a safety net for rainouts. From there, it’s a brutal stretch of 12 straight games with the first 2 series on the road against the Nationals and the Cardinals, then 2 series at home with the Padres and Reds.
And yes, expect roster manipulation mayhem from Alex Anthopoulos.
I can’t imagine any advantage gained from added clock familiarity would withstand more than a couple of weeks. It’s not something I would be basing roster decisions on, at any rate.
The rotation has not done a lot to infuse me with confidence this spring. Thank god for Fried and Strider, but we could be looking at a lot of ugly starts in between if Wright can’t go and Morton is still feeling his age.
I think it’s likely that only 4 starting pitchers are on the Opening Day roster, and that they go with an extra reliever until they need a 5th starter.
@1
Wholeheartedly disagree. I think it’s going to be a HUGE adjustment for a whole lot of folks.
@2
I’ve thought about that and could be a possibility. I’m not sure they’ll do it though. My guess is they go with 5. Giving Fried an extra day of rest would seem more important than going with 4 starters. IMO, 8 relievers are plenty to begin the year, especially if one is Jesse Chavez. I think they’ll start with 5 and re-evaluate after 2 rotations. From there, one of Wright, Allard, Anderson, Elder, Soroka, or Vines could be deemed ready should either of the back-end guys prove unfit.
3 — Even then, they could go with an extra reliever for the first 4 games and call someone up for the 5th game. Classic manipulation.
@2 @3 @4 Strider started out as a reliever. I think Dodd could do that too. Maybe he could count as 5th SP and 9th RP. I think I’d go for Nick Anderson over Chavez or Tonkin. I also don’t really want to see Adrianza on the OD roster. I’m not sure who I’d prefer, though, except maybe Pillar.
Oh, and BTW, Baldwin was sent to minor league camp. Need to count Ynoa if you’re counting Matzek.
Who are the locks? Especially in the relief corps.
Fixed the mistake. Thanks
@3 — Adjustment? Sure. Massively changing the way guys are valued, and what makes a good pitcher? I severely doubt it. There are probably going to be a few bloopers early in the season where a veteran lets a game get away from him due to a few badly-timed clock violations, but by May or June pretty much everyone is going to be used to it. I doubt there’s a single guy in the majors or minors who has had his long-term valuation significantly altered by the pitch clock. No mediocre pitcher is suddenly going to become a real piece because he’s a master of clock management, and no solid pitcher is going to have his career wrecked by it.
You start with Shuster or Dodd because you think you see something in them that’s going to let them punch above their weight, at least for a while. You don’t do it because you think you’re rules-lawyering the clock somehow.
As to the pitch clock, I was at Anderson’s home debut last year and he was having a terrible time (the fact that he had no command at all was not helping). This was his 3rd start of the season with the clock and he had 2 violations and could have been called for several more but the ump was being nice to the major leaguer. It very well could take significant time for some guys to adapt.
I would have guessed that the tighter balk rules would actually be trickier than the pitch clock. Hitting is about timing; pitching is about disrupting timing. Max Scherzer’s already gotten famous for being one of the first guys to figure out how to turn the pitch clock to his advantage in his eternal war against batters.
But if the balk rule is tightly enforced, that will require pitchers to actually alter their mechanics. And mechanical changes are nontrivial.
Honor also compels me to reiterate my longtime stance: the balk rule is deeply, deeply stupid.
@5
I think RPs, at least for OD, have been set for awhile because 6 are on guaranteed contracts: Iglesias, Jimenez, McHugh, Yates, Luetge, Minter.
The last one is Dylan Lee. I wrote him off earlier but that was only because I thought the Braves had signed Dennis Santana to a guaranteed contract. With Santana now gone, Lee is surely guaranteed a spot.
Kirby Yates got hammered again today. I wonder if he might be IL’ed or if they straight up release him.
Anderson over Yates?
Unfortunately, Kirby’s pitching up to his big brother’s reputation. (I don’t know how many of y’all remember Tyler Kali Yates, but he was… not good.)
I have to wonder what will happen to Kenley Jansen with the pitch clock and balk rules. I guess his windup will be allowed but I hate it. He signed for 2 years and $32 million with the Red Sox. That is a contract I’m very happy Atlanta doesn’t have to pay
Mike Foltynewicz’s compound in Phoenix can be yours!
https://redf.in/E7azP3
@13, sounds like Kenley is well aware of how much he needs to get his butt in gear!
https://theathletic.com/4241419/2023/02/23/red-sox-closer-kenley-jansen-pitch-clock/
Fangraphs has updated their WAR projections and the Braves are now #1 (but basically tied with Padres and Yankees).
Edwin Diaz injured his leg celebrating Puerto Rico’s win over the D.R. and was carried off the field and left in a wheelchair. Assuming we’ll find out tomorrow the extent of the injury.
How very Met-like…
I can’t celebrate injuries, but damn that’s a horrible turn of events for them.
@14 Nice place. Folty has a bit of a sneakers-fetish. Photos 27-29.
Sounds like it might be the ACL.
Oh, God. I wouldn’t wish that on anybody.
And TJ for Cade Cavalli, one of the Nats’ top pitching prospects. The cruelties of March continue apace.
Bowman just reported that Wright will get 2 starts during ST and will be lined up to pitch in the Cardinals series. So…those people that have voiced that the Braves will go with 4 SPs out the gate with 1 extra reliever, will likely be right.
There needs to be a BP/FG/SABR level review on the effect of layoff on baseball players.
If a player has a layoff of X months, their future production is hampered by Y, over time.
In theory, there’s probably a value for X, where it would almost be impossible to have Y be anything but negative. I’d posit that Soroka is probably approaching it. It’s the baseball equivalent of ring rust.
It’s an interesting point. I’d say we witnessed it with Dallas Keuchel.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/draveda01.shtml
This discussion made me think of Dave Dravecky. Which… because of the majesty of baseball, made me think of another ‘thing’. Who in X amount of games pitched or Y ABs is the most consistent player in baseball history. Not how good, or how bad they were, but how similar was their output from Y/Y over a non S/S/S level of competition.
Dravecky was REMARKABLY consistent. I know Brett Saberhagen would be the converse.
Before I do this, Chief: you don’t care about results? Just Games Pitched and At Bats? Not (say) ERA and/or OPS? Aww… heck. I’ll take a stab at all of this today.
It would be interesting to see it at thresholds. Say a player with 2000 ABs, 4000 ABs etc.
1000 IPs 2000 IPs and so on. BTW, only 30 players in MLB history have 10K ABs. Chipper had 8900.
Torn patellar tendon for Diaz. He’s out until at least mid-September, optimistically.
I am just so heartbroken to hear of Mr. Diaz’s unfortunate fate.
Turns out, Mets closer Edwin Diaz tore his patellar tendon. He’s out for the season.
I’m in Queens at the moment & I can hear the gnashing of teeth from blocks away.
Hate to see anyone get injured, but at least we probably won’t have to hear that Godforsaken Timmy Trumpet song this year.
Diaz is in all likelihood done for the season. Wow.
The crazy thing is that I don’t think this actually affects much? The NL is so stratified between good and bad teams that it would take an act of god to knock one of the top five teams out of a playoff spot. The only real drama is whether one of the teams in the Brewers/Giants/Cubs/D-Backs bucket can make a run for the last wild card.
The Mets w/o the game’s best closer is kind of a big deal.
I’m sure they’ll acquire someone, but he won’t be as effective as Diaz was last year. Nobody will be.
Diaz only pitches the ninth, so it doesn’t really impact innings 1-8, but blown games could easily be the difference between 1st and 3rd place in the NL East.
The Mets’ fortunes largely now hinge on the aging arms of Verlander and Scherzer.
He was about as good as you could be last year (Timmy Trumpet be damned). Also, he wouldn’t just pitch the 9th in the post-season. Given the chance, Buck would use him like Torre used Mariano Rivera.
Not having Diaz can be the difference between advancing & not advancing. One blown save in a short series — as Braves fans of the ’90s know all too well — can have a catastrophic effect.
Can Bill Contreras play the song now?
This is so awesome!
Something’s amiss. Whether it’s a small injury, getting off field work, or a pivot, Grissom isn’t in the lineup Anton for the 3rd straight game.
Though constantly lurking, I have no idea who Anton is.
That said, and hoping all is well physically with Grissom, is it possible the Braves might be looking to resolve their outfield issue by moving the wunderkind to left and inserting more production than Rosario, Ozuna or the wannabees in center?
Optioning Elder and Anderson now means they can be recalled that much earlier, if needed.
I don’t believe that has anything to do with it. They can be called up the moment Matzek/Ynoa/Allard go on the IL.
I think they’re seriously considering Shewmake, not as a permanent option, but to give Grissom some reps in AAA until Shewmake isn’t a viable alternative.
I do not understand why the Braves aren’t bigger believers in Grissom. The kid can flat out rake. Find a place he can play without embarrassing himself and leave him alone.
@37 – I rescind my assessment of Carlos Gomez as a six-tool player.
I guess it’s also possible that someone is interested in Shewmake and wants to see him play.
I can’t really say I’m all that excited about choosing between the guy who can maybe hit but can’t field and the guy who can maybe field but can’t hit.
From a more optimistic perspective, Shewmake is part of the generation of prospects whose development was stunted by the pandemic. It wouldn’t be the craziest thing in the world if he figured something out, even if it wasn’t on the usual timetable. He was a real prospect not that long ago.
…Jesus, I typed that out and it seems even more unlikely than it did when the thought first crossed my mind. Is it too early to note that the Braves could have just given some money to a guy who can both hit and field and saved themselves (and me) the headache?
New thead.
https://bravesjournal.mystagingwebsite.com/2023/03/17/braves-spring-training-updates-vaughn-grissom-and-michael-soroka/