It was the best of seasons, it was the worst of seasons. 

I’m straining a literary allusion to make a point.  Although last year was neither Charlie Morton’s best nor his worst, his 2022 really was a tale of two seasons.  Charlie pitched very well for a couple of months in the middle of 2022, but it was sandwiched between his worst pitching since his first full year with the Pirates.

Indeed, I had forgotten how bad Charlie was in 2010; in 17 starts that year, he went 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA.  (As poorly as Morton pitched for stretches last year, he was never that bad.)  At age 26, there was not much reason to believe that Charlie Morton would even be pitching for one more year, much less another dozen.

As you know, Charlie Morton’s career is a tale of two careers.  The way Charlie turned his career around in his mid-thirties is almost unprecedented in mlb history.  For the four full seasons from 2017 to 2021 (excluding the odd covid season), Morton went 49-22 with an ERA of 3.25.

Back to 2022, and the tale of the two seasons.  Morton spent the offseason recovering and rehabbing from the broken leg he suffered in the 2021 World Series.  You’ve got to figure that contributed to his slow start in 2022.  And slow it was. In April, May, and June, Morton had a 4.73 ERA and a 4.13 FIP.  Hitters slashed .249/.333/.416 and his K/BB was 3.03.  Those numbers are not good, and a far cry from the standard he had established for himself the previous five years. Perhaps most alarmingly, he surrendered lots of long balls–1.24 HRs per nine innings in 80.0 innings pitched through June.

But in ten starts in July and August, he was once again our favorite Uncle Charlie. In 60.1 innings in July and August, he had a 3.28 ERA and a 3.74 FIP.  Hitters’ slash line was a more Morton-like .193/.276/.343 and his K/BB rate was 3.85.  Still, he was prone to the dinger; he gave up 1.34 HRs per nine innings in this stretch.

After such a promising turn, Morton’s last six starts of the season were truly lousy.  In 31.2 innings, he had a 5.40 ERA (5.58 FIP).  Hitters slashed .262/.343/.516, his  K/BB ratio sunk to 2.84, and he surrendered 2.27 HRs per nine innings (welp!). (thanks to Deep Dive into Charlie Morton and his 2022 struggles – Battery Power for these in season splits).

Was 2022 a product of inevitable age-related decline?  He was 38, after all, an age at which 99% of major league pitchers have long since hung up their cleats.  But there are some indications that he still has good stuff despite his age.  His fastball velocity remained in the mid to upper nineties, and his curve was breaking as sharply as ever.  His spin rates are in the 98th percentile of all pitchers.  The problem in 2022, apparently, was command.  Although he struck out as many hitters as he usually does, he walked significantly more.  Moreover, at times he had trouble locating both the curve and the heater.  How many times did he hit a left handed batter in the back foot? It seemed like 3 or 4 times per start. (Actually, he hit 18 batters on the season. I didn’t realize until now that’s pretty normal for Morton. He’s led the league in HBP four times, with a career high of 19; he’s done that in both his good and bad years.) When the curve missed badly, and he came in with the four seamer, it tended to be in the groove and got hammered.  (again, see Deep Dive into Charlie Morton and his 2022 struggles – Battery Power for heat maps to illustrate these points.)

What To Expect from Morton in 2023

The Braves don’t think Morton is washed up.  On September 30, they exercised the $20 million dollar option for 2023 and extended that option for the 2024 season.  Given the dollars being shelled out for pitchers like Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, and Jameson Taillon, twenty mil is not out of line for a number four starter.  Although Morton will be 39, his career arc shows that he’s anything but typical.  He’s smart and a hard worker, he knows his own body and mechanics, and he’s shown he can make adjustments.  (For example, he made a midseason change to his foot position on the rubber last year that led to the better results: Charlie Morton’s Season Saving Adjustment – Baseball ProspectusBaseball Prospectus ) In addition, by all accounts he’s a great role model and mentor to what is otherwise a young rotation. 

Still, the lingering issue is whether Charlie’s marked decline in 2022 is the cliff that will accelerate the end of his career, or just an injury-related bump on the way to more late career success. The Braves have a proud history of pitchers who excelled in their late thirties into their forties.  Warren Spahn was the best pitcher in the league from his age 35 through age 42 seasons.  Phil Niekro had two of the very best seasons of his career during his age 39 and age 40 seasons.  Of course, Spahn and Niekro are HoFers and freaks of nature.  But although Morton won’t join the Hall of Fame, he’s also a freak! His mid-thirties success, after so many undistinguished years, renders forecasts based on ordinary careers pretty meaningless. 

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I’m still in full time employment, past what the Social Security Administration calls “full retirement age.”  In my job, I hope I’ll know when it’s time to hang it up.  More likely, I’ll need others to tell me once it’s clear that I don’t have it any more.  (If they paid me $20 million a year, it would be even more difficult for me to recognize my age-related decline!)  The good thing about sports is that we will all know whether the Braves made a mistake in paying twenty million to Morton when he’s past full retirement age.  I’m cautiously optimistic that Charlie will make the 20 million look like a bargain.