As Ben put it on the radio call, it wasn’t hard to figure out who got the game ball in this one. Bryce Elder pitched the team’s first complete game of the year, and it also happened to be the team’s first shutout. As a matter of fact, the team’s only two complete games last year were shutouts, too, both by Max Fried, on August 20 and September 24.
As it was, he got six strikeouts, only walked one batter, stayed around the strike zone, got some great defense, and got 27 outs with just 106 pitches. The Nats are basically a Triple-A offense right now; Bryce’s stuff is not overpowering, and a team like the Dodgers or Astros would not let him go nine. But that’s a quibble; according to the team, he’s the first Braves rookie to throw a complete-game shutout since 1990.
Unfortunately, the history there is not entirely favorable — the rookie in question was Paul Marak; that shutout was his only major-league win. He went back to Triple-A Richmond in the miracle year of 1991, where he posted a 5.85 ERA in 172 1/3 innings; he never made it back to the Show. Suffice to say that rookies pitching shutouts are rare. Elder pitched the 15th shutout in the major leagues this year, and only three of them were pitched by rookies: Reid Detmers, Hunter Greene, and Bryce Elder.
Bryce has now made eight major league starts, three against the Marlins and three against the Nationals, and so you might look a mite askance at his 2.76 ERA (albeit slightly less askance at his 3.73 FIP) and think, perhaps the lad has not been sufficiently tested against a playoff-caliber offense.
And, sure. On the other hand, Elder has exactly as many starts for the Braves as Jake Odorizzi, and Elder has pitched 11 more innings and given up 11 fewer runs. At a certain point, it behooves a man to set his brow, purse his lips, and say, “Scoreboard.”
Bryce couldn’t help the team out on the other side of the ball, due to that newfangled designated hitter that they foisted on us, so the other guys in the uniform were forced to help out. All of the scoring occurred in the middle innings.
In the fourth, Olson walloped one, which was good. It was also his only hit of the day, as he walked, struck out, and hit a sac fly in his other plate appearances. In all, a fine day at the office, but it would still be nice to see a few more multihit games from him.
In the fifth, Marcell hit a solo homer; 15 of his 22 homers this year have been solo shots. He also hit an RBI double in the sixth; whatever, his OBP is still .272. Despite the production, he’s still been worth about -1 WAR this year. The “fire him into the sun” logic remains sound.
In the sixth, the offense sort of roared to life. After a leadoff walk from Riley, Michael Harris II singled — his only hit of the day in his first-ever start as cleanup man; he also struck out twice and grounded into a double play, so apparently he’s only human — and promptly stole second, setting up men on second and third for Matt Olson, who connected for a sac fly. William Contreras got plunked, the Nats committed a run-scoring error, Ozuna hit his RBI double, and then Orlando Arcia hit a two-run homer, his first home run since August 3rd.
Thanks to the error, only one of the five runs in the inning was marked as “earned.” Still, when the dust settled, it was 8-0, the offense went back to sleep, and Bryce gave the pen a night off. The Mets had a night off, too, so the Braves are back to being just a single game behind in the standings.
Tonight, Kyle Muller gets his first start since August 13. Something tells me that AA sees this capital city squad as a good soft landing for our rookies to try to establish themselves. Couldn’t agree more. Go get ’em, meat!
Thanks, AAR. Bryce Elder. Wow.
I just read, and JonathanF will no doubt tell me if that’s indeed correct, that the Braves are eight games away from completing a 162-game season without a sac bunt and that this has never happened before in baseball history.
Thanks as always, AAR. I think you have a typo in the fourth para – 3.73 is Elder’s FIP, not his ERA.
If the team is thinking of using Elder again this season and/or in the postseason, I would’ve preferred having Rangel pitch the 9th to protect Elder’s arm a little. He had a 104-pitch game in August and has been over 90 a couple of times, so 106 pitches yesterday probably isn’t a big deal. Still, with an 8-run lead, it’s not like pitching Rangel would’ve been too risky, and it might have been useful to get him in his first game in a low-pressure situation. I didn’t know anything about him until checking his BRef page; his full name is Alan Eduardo Rangel, and he’s from Hermosillo, Mexico, where he played winter ball for a couple of years. His K/9 IP rate has been around 11 in AA the last two years, but he hasn’t been all that successful otherwise.
Great recap all.
Funny aside – I caught the post-game interview between Bryce and Paul Byrd. Maybe it was just me, but I couldn’t square Bryce’s mountain-man-from-Texas look – – to his voice/accent. I had to check my sound!
@ 2,
I think Rangel is a change up artist. He was deadly good in the low minors, but the warnings were “but yeah, nobody at that level ever sees a good change up.”
Thank you Mr. Remington. Actually, I think both Rosario and Ozuna have been trending up a little lately. Not that Ozuna will play up to his contract.
@2, thanks – fixed!
I know the Marlins have a bit more of a pulse than the Nats, but let’s hope recent history doesn’t repeat tonight in Flushing:
Hector Carrasco vs. Marlins in ’22: 4 starts, 3-0, 2.10 ERA, 25.2 IP, 23 H
Pablo Lopez vs. Mets in ’22: 4 starts, 1-3, 11.34 ERA, 16.2 IP, 34 H
Lopez had one winning start vs. NYM (5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H), but the rest were full-on disasters. Time to pick it up, Pablo. We need the Fish to get a game here.
I’ve periodically been checking the playoff odds, and both Fangraphs and FiveThirtyEight have similar odds on the Braves winning to division–25% and 27%, respectively. (Fangraphs also gives the Mets a 17.2 % chance of winning the WS–highest of any MLB club!)
In contrast, Baseball Reference actually has the Braves as slight favorites to win the East (50.4%). Does anyone have any insight into why BR is so out-of-step with the other two, and why Fangraphs is so bullish on the Mets winning the WS?
I’d guess it’s the top of their rotation & their closer.
Thanks Alex. I was discounting Elder, but good point relative to Odorizzi.
@7, it looks like BR uses team records over the last 100 games, plus 50 games at .500, as its measure of underlying team quality. That leaves out the start of the year when the Mets played so well and the Braves didn’t, so it would consider the Braves to be a good bit better.
(I assume because of this,) BR’s strength of remaining schedule formula thinks the Mets have a tougher remaining schedule than the Braves. Each team plays Washington and Miami twice, the Braves play Miami one more time and the Mets three times, while the Mets play Washington one more time and the Braves three times, and the Mets have five games at home while the Braves have only three. Given all that, to think that the Mets’ remaining schedule is tougher, it has to assume that the Braves are the better team.
BR also doesn’t look at individual pitching matchups, which you would think would give the Mets an edge since they will have both Scherzer & deGrom against the Braves in what are higher-leverage games. It also doesn’t know that Alcantara is lined up to miss this week’s Marlins-Mets games but (I think) to start game 162 vs. the Braves.
Good piece on Wright.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kyle-wright-reaches-a-rare-milestone-in-his-breakout-season/
Donnie Baseball finally got fired — or he spontaneously decided to spend more time with his family, and who among us can tell the difference?
Good riddance.
@12. Amen. overrated as a player and a classless mgr
I don’t disagree about Mattingly, but I’m not sure if there has ever been a manager who could have made the Marlins successful over the last 7 years. The Marlins organization is a colossal joke.
Mattingly overrated as a player? Not really. Nobody thought he was Stan Musial, but for about a half-dozen years he was one of the AL’s best hitters.
Overall, he was very good, a former MVP, & a genuinely dominant offensive player (those 6 peak years) until he hurt his back.
@11, Thanks. What jumped out at me was that, while the bullpen has only lost one lead for Wright (that’s good but several pitchers haven’t had any leads lost), the bullpen has lost six leads each for Fried and Morton, tied for the most in MLB. That seems unusual for what is supposed to be a good pen. Of course it may be that, because Wright has had more run support, he may have left with a lot of three-run leads while Morton & Fried have left with one-run leads.
Also interesting to see that, if he pitches 5 or fewer innings the rest of the regular season, Wright will set a record for fewest IP with 20 wins.
@10: Thanks for the explanation.
Kyle Muller is . . . not a Major League Baseball player. Based on tonight’s results so far, he isn’t even a good minor league player.
Money Mike!
Mattingly was a great player.
Man, can you believe Arcia in that joint?
EDIT: B2B… let’s wipe ’em out.
Well now that’s fun!
Alonso 3-run HR… Marlins 4-3 now
Wow, ump missed 2 strike calls to cost Muller finishing the 5th inning…
Michael Harris II. Goodness.
Love Harris.
Also per the announcer’s discussion, I like Tom Hallion too.
Acuna finding his power stroke for the playoffs could be huge!
Get hot, kid
@26,27
Yes please!
Seems like he just needs extended rest once in a while.
MH2 deserves MVP votes.
Not a good night for the 1st base ump or the entire umpiring crew for that matter.
Wow. 3 challenges by the Braves. 3 Overturned calls. I’m not watching, though. Are these umps gonna have an uncomfortable conversation with the league office, or were they reasonable calls?
They’ve all been bang-bang plays.
Meanwhile, Chip: “No RBI on the wild pitch.” Thanks…for pointing that out…
Boys are just having fun now! How bout the leather in that inning from Jesse and Ronald!
https://twitter.com/braves/status/1574936060228177921?s=46&t=cdYS-tV7qAdyEpqi1uLGMQ
Seriously, I love Jesse Chavez.
@33 – He is the most interesting man in the world.
If this is what Matzek is now, a nice MR or maybe a setup guy, I hope he thinks it was worth it. Nobody ever burned their best pitches more effectively or to greater impact.
what the hell is happening in this Mets game
reliever just got called for three balks in one at bat, balking in a run, everybody gettin’ tossed now.
to be clear, i have no idea why this is a balk at all. mayyyybe he’s not coming to a full set? but I think he is.
3 balks called in the bottom of the 8th to gift the mets a run, gotta say I’m a little confused by it, but at least they only give up the one run.
Your (sort of) division-leading Atlanta Braves.
Last year’s team had some hired guns. This year’s team has been a little different. I enjoy this team more.
Mets lose! Mets lose! Mets lose!
@35, he could probably talk to a couple of the Nationals pitchers about it. Seems like they all would think it was worth it; I think I would, anyway. Strasburg & Corbin also got big contracts out of it, but between what he’s made and what he’ll make over the next couple of years if he stays close to his current level, Matzek will be fine by normal-people standards.
@1: Yes, Timo, that is correct. In fact it’s not even close. The fewest sacrifices by a team in a 162 game season before this season is 4 by the 2019 Angels. The Dodgers so far this year have only 3. But the only other years with no bunts are 2020 (60 game) seasons.
https://stathead.com/tiny/e6jrv
The 1917 Red Sox have the record of 310 sacrifices in 157 games.
Thank you, JonathanF. Interesting.
Great win, tied for first. I’m on the way to the US today. Hope that there will be some baseball in Atlanta on Friday or Saturday. Go Braves!
More important of course that everyone is staying safe, especially on the FL west coast.
Amen.
Mets: We’re a different team this year. We won’t IWOTM
Braves: That may be true, but we’re relentless and the better team
Mets: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4iZqXoDKfY8
Three games stand out to me right now:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ARI/ARI202205310.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA202209110.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN202208270.shtml
@46 Team’s tied for first place with a chance to clinch on Sunday (four straight wins will do it) and you wanna fixate on a few tough losses?
There are literally 97 better box scores for you to look at.
https://youtu.be/MI9zyWu_POk
I’m still confused as hell about those three balks in the Mets game. I watched a quick video of it, and the pitcher didn’t appear to be doing anything flagrant.
Seven years without a balk, and then three in one at-bat? Yeah, I’m blaming the umpire (and possibly his ego) until proven otherwise.
@49 That was pretty bad. It seemed like it became a typical umpire ego thing trying to prove a point. Seems like a dangerous time to do that in the thick of a pennant race
I’m surprised to see Justyn-Henry Malloy in AAA so soon. The guy has rocketed through 3 levels, starting with A+, Rome. You have to love his obp of over 400. If he develops a little more power, the sky is the limit. An outfield of Malloy, Harris and Acuna could be epic.
@49: I agree. I saw some commentary last night that the league has told the umpires to put a new emphasis on this. (Why? To goose steal rates in advance of the new bases and pickoff rules for next year?) But this seemed like a hell of time for one umpire to start enforcing it.
I should add that anyone who took calculus knows that every time a pitcher raises his glove and then lowers it, there is a time when the glove is at rest. Puts a lot of pressure on the word “discernible” in an era of instant replay. (And allows me to mention the intermediate value theorem for the first time in my comments here.)
@47, not fixating on them. In terms of winning the division or not, I’m saying those three losses stand out to me as being really important.
Those were Richard Bleier’s first 3 balks of his 7-year career. That should tell you a lot.
But yeah, the end of a terrific division race is a really bad time to overly enforce some new interpretation of the balk. I just kept thinking, “If someone hits a 2-run HR now, we’ll never hear the end of this silliness…”
Of course, if they decide to enforce it on him next week in Miami, we can call it even.
MLB tried to spark a rally for the Mets but it didn’t work…
https://bravesjournal.mystagingwebsite.com/2022/09/28/braves-8-nats-2/