The famous short story writer, pen name “O’Henry”, became famous for the “surprise ending.” When I was reading his stuff in school in the late 60’s to mid 70’s I remember thinking “why is this a surprise ending?” Well, the “unexpected plot twist” had become the “every plot always tries to fool you twist.” Like does it REALLY surprise you when the daughter on Law & Order turns out to be the real killer of Mom’s lover?
I can identify 3 salient principles as to why this type of result seems to be normal for the Atlanta Braves. 1. We have much wretched “starting” pitching which makes it easy to be behind. 2. We may have the most 1 to 7 or so shut down bullpen ever. 3. Snit and the young un’s maintain a positive attitude and never concede.
Dany Gilbert Kiti Toussaint is the riddle which umpires cannot solve. For quite a few stuff pitchers, it appears that umpires can’t follow the extreme break in the pitches and therefore call what should be a strike as a ball. With the StatCast, Trackman, etc. set ups in Minor League parks and MLB parks somebody has run that and found that, “yes, extreme breaking balls are called balls too often and it is worse in the minors. Well, Monsieur Toussaint takes this to another level. When things are outside the realm of human experience, we don’t believe they happened. Like, when I am outside and feel a “whoosh” go by, I do not realize it is Flash and Superman racing to the end of the galaxy and back, I figure it must be a burst of wind. Thus are mere mortal umpires challenged.
Well M. Toussaint let three in and it would have been worse if Austin Riley hadn’t made a great diving catch and extended the dive to the bag at 3rd for a double play. Grant Dayton came in and put out the next fire. Then Boxcar Ynoa put on a quite dazzling display.
Meanwhile, our old friend Anibal Sanchez tried hard to give up more runs than Touki. Aren’t you glad you don’t owe 2 more 8 million seasons after this one? Sanchez is toast so badly burned you think it is pumpernickel. So, that let the Braves offense keep it fairly close.
So, you go to the 9th down 5 to 3 and then Soto launches one and the gNats win probability goes to around 95% (don’t know the exact number, but hang with me). Well, Adam DuVall launches one to cut it to one and then Captain Dans (he deserves a promotion) launches another to walk it off. Just as O’Henry drew it up.
Dansby seems to have found the mojo again. He is making hard contact on his outs and is rebounding from his little slump. He knew that one was gone when it left the bat.
Dansby’s ability to hit a breaking ball the other way with power is the biggest improvement in his game
‘toast so badly burned’
amid a plethora of good writings this one stands out and will so remain with me for ever…thank you.
Source: FanGraphs
Y’Noah?
No, we did not.
Now we do.
You have to carry him in the outfield… He can’t catch(see FF in the 8th), he can’t throw, he runs slowly and is thus a poor base runner…by some accounts he is not a particularly nice person.
Yet. The home run he hit last night to center was mesmerizing. In the simplicity of his swing and the lack of any real effort. Who could you equate him to, his future in our league, our game, points today at least to the history books. His smile redeems him, the fact he will be a Nat for 15 years horrifies.
The homer was off a fastball, but yes. He flailed badly at outside sliders his first full season. Steady improvement since then.
I’ve been saying it for a while — Soto’s the next Miguel Cabrera. His batting eye is otherworldly.
It is time for the Braves to make some outfield adjustments. First, with Acunior out, the Braves need to move Adam Duvall to centerfield. There is a good chance that Adam will claim this position for the year putting Inciarte on the bench or taxi squad. Next, Marcel Ozuna should become the everyday left fielder. He needs the work on defense and his hitting was better before he became the DH. These changes make the lineup deeper since the DH position can be filled with the hot player or Camargo if there is no one better. It is time for Austin Riley to step up at third base or bring Shewmake or Solarte up to give him something to think about. When Acuna returns, Markakis will be ready to join the DH team. Hechavarria sure looked good at third last night and we know his hitting will greatly improve if he gets regular playing time. Camargo and Riley are on the verge of showing they are not prime time players and the Braves should move on.
Congratulations cliff, on both the win and the typically well-written article.
Dansby may be okay.
Let’s not forget Ynoa put us in position for the win. He also gave the rest of our pen some much needed rest in the process. And the Nats brought in their big horses, and couldn’t hold the lead. This team is so much fun to watch. And we are very clearly the best team in the East to this point.
Just messing with you, but “best” “team” in the “East” makes me want to break out my inner Bennett Brauer.
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RzARyPALjWU/VYK8NETXBCI/AAAAAAAAIjQ/x36rqI0ptfI/s1600/air%2Bquotes.jpg
#8
Soto is ridiculously good & hopelessly immature. But, of course, that’s what makes him profoundly entertaining.
I love watching his ABs b/c he straight-up challenges every pitcher he faces, whether it’s a mid-season game or WS Game 7. Every visit to the plate is a total street fight. And did you see the look he gave Smith after he knew he hit the HR last night? He’s the bad-guy/heel wrestler.
Nonetheless, I sure wish Gibson, Drysdale or Maglie were still in the league to face him.
Sal the Barber would definitely take issue with the glare.
@ 11, but ESPN chose this morning to run an article saying there is no clear cut best team in NL east. REALLY. The core thing is the run differential. After 24 games the Braves are plus 16. Marlins are 0. Everybody else negative.
I literally own a book publisher and movie studio (well, 40%) and I still come here for the writing. I’ve been lurking for ages, and I keep coming back for good reading.
Also, I think it’s pronounced Boxcar Wino.
Look to the right and it looks like Peanut is saying it is Ynoa or Anderson on Saturday. Not likely Davidson. He has sources. I am curious “why?” If Anderson is ML ready, then he needs to come up. If FO thinks Davidson just doesn’t have it (and it sure seems odd that they would think that), then don’t bring him up
For the record, I really hope we don’t engage in any shenanigans with Soto tonight. The 4-run comeback was answer enough.
In a 162-game season, I’d still think it dumb, but whatever. If we wanna get derailed for a day or two chasing some stupid Miss Manners vendetta, I guess it’s not the end of the world in a six-month season. This season, we just can’t afford it.
And besides, we still have Ronald Acuna on our team, last I checked. So it would be a bit of pot-meet-kettle. Though Ronald is less of a wrestling heel (credit to ububba for that analogy), he’s still capable of pimping a home run every bit as ridiculously.
Though ours wasn’t the only, or even the dumbest, stupid “unwritten rules” beef of the night. Texas was apparently super upset that Fernando Tatis was swinging 3-0 with San Diego up 10-3 in the eighth and hit a grand slam to make it…and you’ll wanna earmuff your kids for this……………14-3!!! I’m so appalled I think I may faint!
I’ve also been called a Boxcar Wino before.
@2 I do think that it was a 96MPH fastball from Hudson that Dansby hit for the walk-off, but his ability to handle the other two pitches for singles shows his ability to handle the entire plate. He’s been fantastic. Really happy for the man, not just the player.
With that said, that 4/29 BB/K is uuuuggglllyyy. He’s moving in the wrong direction there.
Still laughing at Boxcar.
Thought this was an interesting article on 538:
There are a lot of dumb/lazy articles on the Braves up today. There’s the one referenced @15, in which Schoenfield seems to more-or-less acknowledge that the Braves are actually the best team in the division before ignoring that so that he can dream about a five-team race to the finish because that would be more entertaining from a national perspective, I assume.
Then there’s the piece posted on Talking Chop this morning that pretty much proposes that the Braves tank the season. It literally proposes that they call up, like, ALL the prospects, play them without regard to what it means to the record, and if they catch lightning in a bottle, that’s cool, I guess….but what would be even better is if they missed the playoffs so that they could get higher draft picks!!! Because there’s no way we’re beating the Dodgers anyway.
And yes, the “can’t beat the Dodgers in a playoff series so nothing matters” folks are back, it seems…the 10-month respite from their defeatist wailing was not long enough IMO.
the Soto stare…King Leer
Fernando Tatis Jr. is going to make a pile of cash playing baseball.
Nats win probs last night: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL202008170.shtml
Before Soto homer: 92%
After Soto homer: 96%
Entering bottom of 9th: 95%
Markakis HBP: 90%
Duvall Homer: 78%
Camargo Single: 65%
Hech K: 78%
Ender (does it matter?): 89%
Dansby: 0%
There aren’t many plays which change WPA by 0.89.
For the game, Dansby had a WPA of 0.861. That was the 27th best game in Braves history: https://stathead.com/sharing/ray1S
New thread. https://bravesjournal.mystagingwebsite.com/2020/08/18/finding-room-for-3-braves-prospects-and-game-thread/