On Tuesday night, the Braves beat the Cubs 4-3 in a game in which they had 3 hits.  JamesD wants to know how rare that is.  As he points out there are games in which teams were no-hit and won: actually, there are five, the most recent being almost exactly 11 years ago, when the Dodgers beat the Angels without the benefit of a hit.  But teams that are no-hit have a 2.3 percent chance of winning.  I’m actually surprised it’s that high.  In any case, here are the winning percentages by number of hits:

hits games wins Pct
0 214 5 0.0234
1 885 52 0.0588
2 1953 292 0.1495
3 2977 892 0.2996
4 3762 1581 0.4203
5 4210 2020 0.4798
6 4346 2154 0.4956
7 4378 2186 0.4993
8 4380 2188 0.4995
9 4384 2192 0.5000
10 4379 2191 0.5003
11 4357 2192 0.5031
12 4256 2185 0.5134
13 4086 2179 0.5333
14 3636 2139 0.5883
15 3138 2065 0.6581
16 2590 1876 0.7243
17 1966 1579 0.8032
18 1395 1194 0.8559
19 973 869 0.8931
20 646 593 0.9180
21 372 348 0.9355
22 253 227 0.8972
23 124 120 0.9677
24 72 69 0.9583
25 41 39 0.9512
26 30 27 0.9000
27 19 18 0.9474
28 13 13 1.0000
29 5 5 1.0000
30 2 2 1.0000
31 1 1 1.0000
33 1 0 0.0000

Wait… what’s that last row?  As it happens, the major league record for hits (at least in my database – I only go back to 1920 and there are a few games missing) is 33 and that team lost!  It turns out to be this game.  What a bizarre game.  Eddie Rommel replaces Lew Krausse for some reason after the first inning (Lew gave up 3 runs on four hits), pitches the next 17 innings, gives up 29 hits and 14 runs (only 13 earned) and emerges the winning pitcher in an 18 inning game!

In any case, teams with 3 hits have won almost 30 percent of the time, which strikes me as absurdly high, but we’re going back to the deadball era here.  I repeat the exercise for games in this century:

hits games wins Pct
0 48 1 0.0208
1 236 18 0.0763
2 522 69 0.1322
3 782 231 0.2954
4 993 424 0.4270
5 1101 531 0.4823
6 1131 561 0.4960
7 1138 568 0.4991
8 1140 570 0.5000
9 1140 570 0.5000
10 1138 570 0.5009
11 1133 570 0.5031
12 1111 570 0.5131
13 1055 565 0.5355
14 944 558 0.5911
15 794 549 0.6914
16 656 489 0.7454
17 501 418 0.8343
18 373 335 0.8981
19 256 235 0.9180
20 170 157 0.9235
21 87 82 0.9425
22 64 57 0.8906
23 31 31 1.0000
24 18 18 1.0000
25 10 10 1.0000
26 8 8 1.0000
27 3 3 1.0000
28 2 2 1.0000
29 1 1 1.0000

Pretty much the same.

For completeness, the same table limited to Atlanta Braves teams:

hits Games wins Pct
0 7 0 0.0000
1 11 1 0.0909
2 58 7 0.1207
3 138 35 0.2536
4 227 65 0.2863
5 334 124 0.3713
6 414 175 0.4227
7 473 228 0.4820
8 517 266 0.5145
9 522 290 0.5556
10 487 285 0.5852
11 443 268 0.6050
12 365 243 0.6658
13 301 228 0.7575
14 228 168 0.7368
15 148 122 0.8243
16 106 88 0.8302
17 67 56 0.8358
18 41 36 0.8780
19 22 22 1.0000
20 13 12 0.9231
21 8 8 1.0000
22 4 3 0.7500
23 1 1 1.0000
24 3 3 1.0000
25 1 1 1.0000

How many runs did those three hit wonders score? (This is only the winning three hit teams.)

games runs
316 1
376 2
233 3
99 4
40 5
9 6
4 7

So winning a 3 hit game is not particularly rare, but scoring 3 or more runs and winning is pretty unusual, and the Braves on Tuesday needed every one of them.

Game 2 of the Keuchel Era found Dallas from Tulsa in Chicago, taking on Whirling Yu Darvish.  I have no Chip Caray anecdotes to relate because I chose to listen to Bob Costas and Joe Girardi on MLB Network.  Yes – that’s how much I dislike Chip, particularly when he broadcasts in the Hog Butcher to the World.  Also, there was an unfamiliar player in left: somebody named Camargo – not sure whether he’s related to the Camargo we had last year who had to go into the Witness Protection Program.    Probably related.

Following up from yesterday, the first run scored without the benefit of any hits at all.  Walk, Stolen Base, Error, Passed Ball.   

In the second inning, the Braves decided to score the traditional way – with a hit.  And it was a big hit from McCann.  Added to an infield singled from Freddie and a solid single from Keuchel, the Braves had equaled their hit output from yesterday in the first two innings.

In the third, the Braves had two hits and a walk.  The second hit was yet another big fly – this time from Nick to take the lead to 5-0.

Meanwhile, Keuchel be Keucheling.  Three innings, three double plays.  Only one nongrounder. No strikeouts.

Then came a brief rain delay.  Bears (and presumably Cubs) hibernate in winter.  Braves, apparently, hibernate after lightning delays.  The five runs would be all they’d get.  But the Cubs kept playing.  In the fourth, Keuchel gave up his first fly ball… to the left field bleachers, by their Contreras, not ours. (Ours had a day off today.)  Bryant hit one in the bottom of the fifth to make it 5-2.  Contreras scored again after a triple on a classic Heyward groundout and it was 5-3, and after another single that was all for Keuchel after 87 pitches.  Two Keuchel starts – ground balls early and rockets late.  Webb came on, threw one pitch and ended the 6th.  Unfortunately, he was then lifted for a pinch hitter.  On a day without a full bullpen (Jackson and Swarzak are probably unavailable) you’d like to avoid one-pitch pitchers.

So the bottom of the 7th brings on Newky whose inning was uneventful.  Touki gave up a walk and a hit which brought on Minter with two outs in the 8th.  He wild pitched the tying run to second, but struck out Caratini to maintain the Minter Margin for the 9th. Schwarber: noisy out to left.  Almora: 6-3.  Bryant: K.  Newky, Touki, and Minter, whose favorite Green Day album is Dookie.

One more tomorrow, at 2:20 Eastern.  Go get ‘em.