No one is interrupting any regularly scheduled broadcasting to bring us this developing story, but the Braves are now eliminated from the wild-card chase.
The Mets first 2 batters scored off Julio Teheran, effectively ending the game, as the Braves would manage only 4 hits. The lone Braves run was gifted in the 7th by Amed Rosario, whose consecutive errors led to a Jace Peterson ground out RBI. Â Jose Ramirez uncharacteristically allowed 3 runs in the 8th, presumably to keep the final score from being misleadingly close.
Johan Camargo had 2 of the Braves hits, and A.J. Minter looked dominant in 1 1/3 innings of relief, striking out 3. Rex Brothers struck out his batter; Brothers now has 29 K’s in 19 1/3 innings, and an ERA of 7.91. Go figure. Asdrubal Cabrera had the big blow in the 8th, with a 2 run pinch hit homer, and Robert Gsellman allowed 3 hits and the unearned run in his 7 innings.
Teheran settled down after the shaky 1st, allowing only 2 hits and a walk in his final 5 innings.
The Braves drop the series 2 games to 1, and remain a game and a half behind the Marlins in the battle for 2nd place in the East. The Nationals (delenda est) come to town on Tuesday.
The 2nd funniest thing I ever heard about New York:Â Watch Danny Heep
When I got the alert that the Mets had extended their lead from 2-1 to 5-1, I automatically figured Snit put Wisler in again in a close game in order to remove any doubt about the outcome. Much to my surprise it was Ramirez….
Thank you for the recap, Rusty. You do good work consistently. I wish Los Bravos did.
Tomorrow is another day.
Rusty, thanks, i think some of our boys are getting a little tired with just two weeks to go. The bloom is off the rose for our young kids including Dansby and now Neck is looking positively ancient. Freddie has said he wants no more batting practice, a likely story. The Ramirez fastball is down around the middle fifties and the hitters know it. There is just one guy i consider still fighting fit and up for any challenge, Mr. Minter who looks good. And GoHara i suspect will be straight back to 97 next time. So we must just concentrate on getting the Albies’ of this world through the next fortnight. Such talent, such fragility.
Machado is in arb 3 in 2018. I doubt the Braves feel like they’re that close to contention that Machado would be worth acquiring as potentially a one year rental. I could, though, see them making a similar deal for 2019.
Listened to an interview with Mike Soroka, and man, I was really impressed with how mature he is for a 20-year old. I think he’s a smart pitching nerd that will probably have a really long career. His interview reminded me of Albies, Swanson, Freeman, Inciarte, the really smart players. They know these guys better than we do, and I can see why they like him so much. Very impressive.
There’s probably only 11-12 players I’m legitimately interested in right now: Albies, Swanson, Camargo, Adams, Gohara, Fried, JJ, Ramirez, Newcomb, Teheran, Winkler and Wisler because of what they mean to 2018. Everybody else, both positive and negative, you know what you have.
Not Acuna, Rob?
I meant players currently on the ML roster that are playing.
Wisler’s time in ATL should be up.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mike-minor-returned-in-2017-and-teams-should-be-interested/
Mike Minor continues to attract interest as he approaches likely free agency.
@5
11-12?
1. Flowers
2. FF5
3. Albies
4. Camargo
5. Ender
6. Dansby
7. L.Adams
8. Newk
9. Fried
10. Gohara
11. Minter
12. Vizzy
13. Jose R.
14. Sam F.
15. Winkler
Other callups:
Acuna, Lindgren, Devan Watts, Soroka (I think it’s a real possibility we see him early in ’18).
I think that’s a very solid core to build around and I didn’t list Folty or Teheran.
I’m sorry, I meant players that I’m interested in watching right now. Obviously there are significantly more valuable players, but I was just listing the players I thought were doing things right now that would impact 2018. Sort of a “this is why you should watch” idea.
Looking back, the word I worded it was poor.
Yeah…I should have read it more closely as well. I’m looking forward to 2018, but I’m going to be a bit more cautious this upcoming season on my W/L predictions. Honestly, they could sign a few free agents and they do well, the rookies come up and do well, and be a Wild-Card contending team. Or, the rookies could struggle, the free agents not work out, and they could be a team 15 games below .500.
Baseball is frickin’ hard to predict.
@12, if Dickey retires, I can see the team being worse next year. Although if you look at Fangraphs, his knuckleball has been one of the worst overall pitches in MLB this year. They basically rate every pitcher’s pitch individually compared to league average.
Corey Kluber’s curveball has been ~ three times as good as the 2nd highest curveball which is insane.
@2,3 – Thanks guys. You’re right Blazon, these are men not machines. Variability will he high for the reasons you list, and others. Best not to get too high or too low over any given week.
@13
I really do think you’re undervaluing this next wave of SPs.
Gohara, Soroka, Wright, Allard, Anderson, Touki, Bryse W. are up a few tiers from Wisler, Blair, Sims, Newk,etc.
I’m really not sure where to put Fried in this conversation as he’s looked outstanding a few times in MLB, but got his butt handed to him in the minors this year. We shall see.
One thing i’ve learned this time around is how little can separate a never wozzer(us) from other teams who seemingly can stay relevant and fight on when it comes to getting a wild card berth. Teams i had thought well out of it a month ago, some have reappeared. Long winning and losing streaks can play havoc with what the observer’s mind has accepted as read. But streakless clubs can catch you out too, they creep up or down.
So we were 45/45 after 3/5 of the season and immediately wasted no time in back sliding. 500 ball, is it that difficult to maintain for 70 games? Because if you do you’re in business come September 1, you have a real chance. On reflection, this Braves team maintaining 500 over 70 games was never practical, thus the never-wozzer classification. But next year? There is a lot more flexibility down the stretch than I had thought. Keep the faith.
@15 Nah. Most of them will not be what ‘we’ think they are. So says 130 years of baseball history…
Fried is 4th or 5th starter 1.0-1.5 WAR IMO.
Gohara maybe 2nd or 3rd
Soroka is a 2-3
Wright is a crapshoot
Allard is 2nd or 3rd starter
Anderson is a crapshoot
Touki is an extreme longshot
Bryse Wilson is a who knows
Chief, you do realize you just gave the Braves a pretty good rotation of 3 “2-3 types” a good forth starter, and some lottery tickets, right? So you think the rebuild is going well…
@16
I’d like to see a blog post here about the “130 years of baseball history” from a prospect based study, especially from an elite system.
I’ll wait…
Not that I prefer to side with Chief on anything, but the #1 farm system in 2007 was Tampa Bay (to be fair their top 3 prospects were all hitters Delmon Young, Reid Brignac, and Evan Longoria).
The top pitchers were:
4. Jacob McGee, LHP, B+ (breakthrough lefty increased velocity)
5. Jeff Niemann, RHP, B+ (can he stay healthy?)
6. Wade Davis, RHP, B+ (I still love him)
8. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, B (breakthrough for 2007)
9. Mitch Talbot, RHP, B (nice find from Astros)
10. Matt Walker, RHP, B- (great arm but mixed results)
11. Juan Salas, RHP, B- (hasn’t received much attention but looks solid)
13. Josh Butler, RHP, B- (nice arm from `06 draft)
14. Andrew Sonnanstine, RHP, C+ (promising control artist)
15. Jason Hammel, RHP, C+ (should be decent starter eventually)
16. James Houser, LHP, C+ (intriguing southpaw from Cal League)
Hon Mention: Alex Cobb
Only Cobb, Hammel and Hellickson have had any success as starters but no aces in the bunch. McGee and Davis turned in to good relievers.
I’d say our bunch outclasses these guys, Niemann was BA 35, McGee 37, Davis 97/compare to Allard 23, Soroka 33, Wright 41, Newk 42, Anderson 55, Gohara 76 so more depth and upside, but far from sure things.
@19 you should because I am right a whole heckuva lot more than the prospectcasters.
Here are the most similarly ranked from BA 2007 list to our guys
Allard/Kershaw (yes please)
Soroka/Hochevar (sounds about right)
Wright/Carrasco (sign me up)
Newk/J Hirsh (who)
Anderson/John Danks (meh)
Gohara/Greg Reynolds (again who)
I’d take that result assuming we hold on to the guys that turn into Kershaw and Carrasco.
@18 the system is not elite and never has been. Wren Jr. is right about that. It’s devoid of difference makers but has a plethora of MLB fringe plus plus. There is no sure fire #1 SP anywhere in this system. There is almost NO position player talent. Rio Ruiz, come the heck on.
Also, I’d like for Chief to go back and look at the Braves top-10 prospects from years in which they had elite systems (2009 and 2010 for example), and then realize that our MILB system, in its current form, has never been better.
And no position prospects. Get the heck out of here with that nonsense. In fact, Acuna’s likely going to be the #1 prospect in the Majors. You’re so jaded it’s absurd.
@19 It’s true that pitching prospects are quite volatile and most – even a lot of highly-touted guys – never have any sustained success in the majors. On the other hand, there are plenty of examples of middling pitcher prospects who blossom into dominant arms – for instance, Kluber (134), Degrom (272), and Ray (356) weren’t exactly high draft picks (pick spot in parentheses).
Based solely on my objective viewing of recent Braves pitching prospects, I think Gohara is ready to be a mid-rotation guy already and has real #1/#2 upside. His fastball has velocity, control *and* some deception/movement, and his slider is legit. Folty, for me, has all the tools to succeed but lacks consistency. Seems like the most likely outcome is he continues to improve and becomes a good mid-rotation guy. Newcomb… man, I don’t really know. He has a great power pitcher body and throws easy gas, but he simply can’t seem to sustain his pitching mechanics (especially against RH batters). I feel like his chances of making The Leap are a good bit lower than Gohara and Folty. At a bare minimum, though, all 3 of these guys have the physical tools / stuff to succeed at the MLB level, which is something you almost definitely can’t say about Blair and Wisler.
Also, I think we can all agree that AJ Minter looks legit. It’s a shame that both he and Vizzy have been a bit fragile / injury prone.
Also, reposting an interesting piece of a chat transcript from over at Fangraphs:
Oklahomabrave
11:34 If the Braves make a trade this offseason which prospect would you make the case they should sell high on due to peaking value and unlikelyness of taking the next step
Eric A Longenhagen
11:34 Pending a change in opinion based on what I see in the AFL, Riley.
In other parts of the chat, Longerhagen said he sees Allard as a #3/#4 guy, and thinks Touki is a dominant reliever even if he never learns enough control to succeed as a starter.
@22 It’s devoid of difference makers but has a plethora of MLB fringe plus plus.
@16Fried is 4th or 5th starter 1.0-1.5 WAR IMO.
Gohara maybe 2nd or 3rd
Soroka is a 2-3
Wright is a crapshoot
Allard is 2nd or 3rd starter
Anderson is a crapshoot
Touki is an extreme longshot
Bryse Wilson is a who knows
@17Chief, you do realize you just gave the Braves a pretty good rotation of 3 “2-3 types” a good forth starter, and some lottery tickets, right? So you think the rebuild is going well…
Chief, what is your definition of an elite system? Your highlighted list is just the pitchers, which doesn’t include BA Top 20 prospects like Acuna, Swanson, and Albies. We have 9 BA Top 100 prospects right now, but you’re saying it’s not an elite system because it’s missing, in your opinion, an elite starter? Does the system have to have an entire World Series-winning roster in it?
End of the day we still need to buy a top of the rotation guy this offseason
@26 I disagree – we need a TOR guy in order to stand a good shot in the playoffs, but I wouldn’t take that to mean the Braves need to go acquire one this offseason, considering they’re not in position to push their chips in for a playoff bid quite yet. I’d give the Braves a chance to develop a TOR dude internally next season, and put a deadline on having the rotation figured out (including a good 1-2 at the top) by the end of next year.
That said – by all means, if Coppy can find a TOR available this offseason, he should try to get him.
@25 I kind of meant other than Acuna who I’ve been on record for a while saying he’s untouchable and will likely be a star.
Many systems have a legit #1 SP rising star. We don’t even have that.
Swanson is just a guy and Albies is what I’ve described him as.
This is not an elite system. It just isn’t as much as we want it to be it is top heavy and bottom light. There is an almost DEARTH of power hitting. Like, none. We have a bunch of 3rd and 4th starter maybe types and people lose their damn minds.
I’m not responding to anymore of these posts. I’m done and I’ve made my points ad nauseum. You cannot refute any of them and nothing that any of these suspects that have come up have done have dissuaded me from my opinions that out of the 20 pitchers 1-2 will ever amount to a hill of beans.
Who does have an elite system?
Apparently elite systems don’t exist.
“I’m not responding to anymore of these posts.”
Promise?
Braves current farm system is deeper and has more elite talent than any other in the history of the franchise, and that includes the year when this was our Top-10:
1. Heyward 2. FF5 3. Teheran 4. Delgado 5. Vizzy 6. Kimbrel 7. Minor 8. Bethancourt 9. Spruill 10. Hoover
Other notables: 14. Gearrin 16. M. Dunn
Or even who did have an elite system at any point in time? Just one example so we know what to look for…
“it is top heavy and bottom light”
So there are no real difference makers (other than Acuna) but it’s top heavy?
I don’t think you could find anyone who would agree that the system is “bottom light” either. The real strength seems to be the depth of the system, where guys like Bryce Wilson are ranked 20th in the system (per pipeline).
And with that, Chief has flounced out of Braves Journal.
Lane Adams alert. He owns Scherzer anyway.
I get where the naysayers come from that we don’t have someone in the system of which everyone is saying “THAT guy is going to be an ace”. I get that. The best I can look for to that end is that we have BA’s #1 and #4 LHP prospects. What’s better than having stud lefties?
I picked 2010 as a round year that was far enough in the past that top 100’s have been made or broken. Top prospects: #2 Strasburg, #5 Brian Matusz, #9 Neftali Feliz, #14 Bumgarner, #17 Martin Perez, #18 Jeremy Hellickson. So my problem is that even top rated guys can do nothing, become relievers, or be backend starters. And then it can change so quickly; the midseason list saw Teheran move to #6, Hellickson move up to #4, and Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Simon Castro, and Mike Montgomery moved into the top 20. And in the 26-50, you have a bunch of guys who didn’t amount to much but you’ve got Shelby Miller in there. So, at the end of the day, you just don’t know. In 2017, of the top 10 bWAR pitchers, they’ve come from the 12th, 21st, 23rd, 43rd rounds of the draft. They’re just very volatile and it’s an inexact science at best.
I do think, though, it’s unfair to take our position players and grind them into the ground. Swanson, Acuna, and Albies, in a one year period, will all have been in the top 10 or so of overall prospects. That’s important and easy to identify as elite production for a farm, especially since 2 of those are homegrown. And that doesn’t include the player who could be more talented than those 3 (Maitan).
Fixating on players’ prospect rankings is nearly as unhelpful as Chief’s TINSTAAPP-unless-Kershaw “philosophy.” (Gotta love a guy who despairs over no “sure fire #1 SP” in our system while standing in awe of the unheralded Corey Kluber in the same thread.)
I don’t get the obsession with where these prospects happen to stand relative to each other, with something so inexact to begin with. People are like, “But how do I know that Gohara/Wright are different than Wisler/Blair?” Well…you don’t if you think every #5 prospect in every system is created equal.
These players have scouting reports that typically come with grades that refer back to objective criteria. They all get measured against the same standards. Somewhat less importantly in the minors, these players also generate stats that reflect their performance — even stats that aren’t ERA or OPS.
When you have that information, prospect rankings are merely clickbait. The shortest of shorthand, from writers who at best have no way of deciding who should be #8 and who should be #9…and at worst know they can troll you for clicks.
@35, nope. 😉
I want to say that Chief’s comments on the state of the org. are, though I think they are way too pessimistic, almost always interesting and often arguably correct. Lots of dedicated fans are fatalists… something that comes of being repeatedly disappointed, I think.
I agree with Chief on one thing: we cannot refute his position. Then again, neither can he prove his. Time will tell.
I will no longer be moved to respond to one of Chief’s non-refutable, non-provable doomspeeches.
For starters, an elite system would be one in which you could at least with a straight face project someone at any level into every position on a MLB roster.
Do you think we have a MLB catcher anywhere in our system?
A MLB 1B?
A MLB SS outside of Swanson who is just as I’ve contended, a guy.
A MLB 3B not including Ruiz or maybe Austin Riley, maybe?
MLB OFs outside of Acuna? Anfernee Seymour excites you? Pache? Come on, guys.
I know enough about the machinations of baseball to know that no farm system is going to have 25 future HOFs, 25 future All Stars, or even 25 future positive WAR players in it. But we have ALMOST none other than pitchers WHICH are even MORE of a longshot than position players.
So basically what happens on here is that I get mocked because of A. the supposed basicness of my positions, yet I read Fangraphs every day, look at all sorts of advanced metrics, build a case based on science and sound logic and B. because you don’t WANT to believe that I am probably right. That Alex Jackson is probably worse than Biff Pocoroba. That Kolby Allard is probably more Craig McMurtry than Tom Glavine. Etc.
Jackson, Cumberland, Matain, Riley, Pache, yeah there’s some excitement there. That would check the box for a player at every position. But why such hard and fast rules when they clearly bucked the norm by getting so much of one thing?
The odds of Alex Jackson being a ML catcher/receiver are pretty low. I could maybe see a 1B bomber type **maybe** if he develops.
Cumberland is David Ross very light and has thrown out 22% in miLB of base stealers.
Maitan, well yeah.
Riley is a maybe, I’ll give you that. He did hit 20 HR this season so there probably is hope for him being positive WAR.
Pache has 689 miLB ABs without a HR. So that’s a gigantic nope for me.
Looking forward to watching Gohara pitch tonight.
For starters, an elite system would be one in which you could at least with a straight face project someone at any level into every position on a MLB roster.
This is unnecessary in order for the rebuild to succeed.
Like with your “Freeman isn’t great, he’s merely good-to-borderline-great” take, why anyone would bother to take the bait and try to prove that the Braves meet this weird and arbitrary standard, I don’t know.
@46 It would be unnecessary for SOME franchises. We are not those. Because we are not FA market players basically the FO is putting even MORE pressure on these TINSTAAPPs etc.
I could write reams about why I feel like the Braves strategy is flawed. But the summary statement is: When you refuse to augment your farm with money FAs you damn well better be right in something that a 20% success rate in would be extraordinary.
Not exactly good odds…
@47
I guess you’ve decided to continue to respond.
If one can’t look at Gohara and see something different than the pitching prospects that have come prior, they have their eyes closed.
When you refuse to augment your farm with money FAs you damn well better be right in something that a 20% success rate in would be extraordinary.
We spent $37M on FAs just this past winter, and I’m quite confident we’ll do the same this year. In fact, that’s almost a certainty. We traded for Inciarte, “traded” for Kemp, signed Markakis, and will most likely acquire a 3B via FA or trade using said prospects.
But yes, I agree that mid-market teams will have to hit on a higher percentage of their prospects, and the rebuild so goes based on that effectiveness.
When you refuse to augment your farm with money FAs you damn well better be right in something that a 20% success rate in would be extraordinary.
I question both the need for signing pricey FAs and the timing.
What you’re advocating for the team to have done is the exact thing that’s currently holding the team back. Look at Kemp and Markakis. You want to go farther in this direction? The downside of most big free agent signings shows why the Braves would have been correct to avoid spending earlier.
We’re not going to know what we have and what we need for a little while longer. But what is so great about the most expensive and the oldest players available that you can’t get via trade anyway?
Look, at the end of the day, arguments over whether our farm system is elite mean precisely squat. The only thing that matters is how it translates to the major leagues. Chief may be a tad pessimistic for my taste (though I will say that he’s not nearly as far off as some of you are assuming), but these players still have to translate into major league players. If they don’t, none of this means anything. I think some people on here get so excited about the prospects that they forget that. Or it at least appears like they might be forgetting it.
That the major league team get back to contending for championships is the only thing that matters in all of this. Along those lines, we’re going to have to trade some of these prospects for major league level talent at some point very soon. It’s going to make this team better. And a lot of you will be virulently against it. If that happens, some of you may want to ask yourselves why that is.
@50, Kemp and Markakis are NOT the types of FA signings that I’m talking about. That actually makes me chuckle. I’m talking 6 year 120 million type guys. We SHOULD be able to sign 1-2 of those in a market with 6M people that JUST built a new stadium with retail out the wazoo. If not, they effed the eff up.
@51 Yes, the prospectization on this board is literally comical. I’d recommend that they spend a few oh, hundred hours over a year or two like I have and look at what actual MLB players and pitchers did in the minor leagues and compare it and contrast it to what many of our guys have done in the minors and compare.
Or look at the flame out rates of TINSTAAPPs over a few decades or so.
The fact is, this rebuild will be stuck in neutral UNTIL the FO spends big money on proven, dependable, non-injury prone, 150+ games per year MLB proven talent. And you can use what the farm produces to add to THAT.
Frankly, the rebuild is in stasis BECAUSE they AREN’T spending FA money, or at least wisely. Honestly, I expect next season to be just as bad as this one has been, perhaps worse.
@48, yeah he got lit up like a Christmas tree again tonight and has an ERA in the 6s. So no.
Facts are that between Wisler, Blair, Newcomb, Sims, and Gohara, the Braves have almost nothing long term to show for that.
Wisler and Blair are never will be’s. Newcomb has mental issues, Sims isn’t good enough and Gohara is too young.
Gohara is too young.
Lol. You realize that it’s a good thing that he’s even starting in the majors at 21, right? His stuff looks great, he has yet to issue a single walk to Washington National, and the more innings he pitches this year, the more he can give us next year.
You say you read Fangraphs…enjoy: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pitcher-spotlight-luiz-goharas-mlb-debut/
Kemp and Markakis are NOT the types of FA signings that I’m talking about. That actually makes me chuckle. I’m talking 6 year 120 million type guys.
Matt Kemp was signed for 8/$160…
The idea that there are people on here on believe in our prospects so much that they want to graduate and keep them all is a straw man. As far as I can tell, no one on here loves our prospects more than Rob, and Rob wants to trade them now for established players.
I don’t have as much confidence in players like Touki or Newcomb as he does, and I can definitely see trading a few of them if the price is right.
Chief, you might be the one with the fetish here…
The fact is, this rebuild will be stuck in neutral UNTIL the FO spends big money on proven, dependable, non-injury prone, 150+ games per year MLB proven talent. And you can use what the farm produces to add to THAT.
…then again, this is more or less what everyone else here is saying. Except, why not trade prospects for players who have yet to reach free agency, Chief? You still haven’t answered the question.
What is it that gets you so worked up about players who’ve been through six or seven MLB seasons? Players who are more expensive, older, and so far likelier — according to the websites and literature you claim to have read — to decline or become injured?
The biggest FA signings this past offseason weren’t as big as what Chief wants, unless you’re counting the size of the disaster created…
Behold: Aroldis Chapman for 5/$86.
Dexter Fowler for 5/$82.
Ian Desmond for 5/$70.
Kenley Jansen did as well as could be expected of him and for 5/$80 is the kind of thing only a team that’s absolutely swimming in money can do.
The Justin Turner signing looks like the best by far. 4/$64 for a 31 year-old who has only reached 150 games-played once. He’s fantastic and worth it. He also didn’t want to leave LA.
Should we go back to 2016?
Jason Heyward, 8/$184. Any takers???
Chris Davis, 7/$161
Johnny Cueto, 6/$130, and he gets to opt out after sucking this season.
Justin Upton, 6/$132 — Finally, a mega-contract that looks like a good value. And he can opt out of it. A Chief type of player if there ever was one. Maybe we should resign him? /sarcasm
Wei-Yin Chin, 5/$80
Mike Leake, 5/$80 — Another decent value. But Good Teheran gets us the same value for cheaper.
Ian Kennedy, 5/$70
Not encouraging.
I’m taking a leave of absence. I’m not sure how you guys deal with this on a daily basis. It’s not even a conversation, merely a bashing session on any and all things related to the team we root for…no one wants that.
As far as I can tell, no one on here loves our prospects more than Rob, and Rob wants to trade them now for established players.
I fear you may be setting up strawmen of your own…
I literally scrolled down to a random thread, clicked on it, CTRL-Fed for “Rob Cope,” and found this right away: http://bravesjournal.us/2017/09/14/braves-8-gnats-2/#comment-2153151
@56 The team stinks and to a lesser extent the FO may prove to have sucked, potentially… What are we supposed to say, its amazing to be an Atlanta Braves fan?
Don’t leave because of me because as abrasive as I seem on the outside, that would bother me…
@55 Just because those guys failed doesn’t mean that signing FAs long term is verboten. That’s ridiculous. The truth is that Liberty Media runs this team like misers.
Just because those guys failed doesn’t mean that signing FAs long term is verboten.
Just because most prospects fail doesn’t mean that developing them is verboten.
If you’ve taken away from my posts that we shouldn’t develop prospects, you have completely misread my treatises.
My point is that the FO, IMO is putting TOO MANY eggs in the prospects will develop basket. And nothing will change my mind on that.
@58 Riiiight. Some are really, really good, and you don’t trade them. Some, you do trade. Not really tracking your point.
So, instead of what the Braves did, you would have…done what, Chief? Signed Ian Desmond?
Not really tracking your point.
I can tell.
Chief is saying Braves Journal are a bunch of prospect hoarders. I’m saying that you, the person with the most sanguine outlook period and certainly on prospects, would actually trade many of the prospects rather than hold onto them. It’s not an insult to you.
@63
Sorry, force of habit. I was also scanning through so quickly. Plus, I just get lumped in with this Pollyanna viewpoint on this team, so I have my guard up.
“It takes a big man to admit his mistakes, and I am that big man.” -Michael Scott
So, it brings me sadness to bring to your attention some developments. Sean Rodriguez -yes, that Sean Rodriguez- is now hitting .162/.262/.284 in 84 PAs with Pittsburgh. His BABIP is a good bit lower than his career norm, so more PAs will probably better explain that, but it seems this once great pioneer of ball is not currently the man he once was.
In all seriousness, he still sucks, and it’s possible he was simply rushed back and with a full offseason, he’ll be fine. So at least the Braves were right to shed the remainder of his 2017 salary, but we’ll see if it made sense to shed his 2018 salary.
Chief – I agree with Adam @63, we could probably move this conversation in a productive direction if you could articulate your preferred rebuild strategy for the Braves in terms of real-life player moves. Which players do you believe the Braves should have acquired in this past off season? Who would you like to see the Braves go after this off season?
My guess is you want to bring in the same caliber of excellent player that everyone else on here does, it’s just that you’d be willing to sell Braves prospects for less than others would due to your outlook on their likelihood of success.
Really, though, this whole debate will work itself out in short order and maybe even as soon as December. There are so many jumbled assets right now that aren’t working for the short-term. You’ve got prospects with no place in future plans, some fringy players that have some trade value, and about $30M in available payroll next year. So you’ll see some trades, some FA signings, and you’ll see some existing players move around. I think this offseason will see more transitioning of the roster than you’d expect at this stage of the rebuild, and that’s because the areas that need upgrading are clogged by players making money (Markakis, Kemp), the areas that need upgrading also have FAs available (rotation and pen), and you have players that no one will miss just itching to be traded. Jason, the system is elite, and you’ll see how elite it is in due time when a portion of it is traded for impact players, a portion of it comprises a really good roster, and we still have a top third system.
There is a good point, however, that a lot of the impact FAs carry a rate and term that the Braves don’t want to touch at all, and I don’t know how the Braves will incrementally improve their roster by not swimming in that pond. And if the same is true with prospect currency, then it’s going to be even more interesting to see what they do.
Okay how about we just do Allard, Pache, Anderson, Soroka and Riley for Longo and Archer. Would that make everyone happy?
A variation of that trade would make me happy. Longoria is getting up there in age.
Like… if you prefer that we had:
– drafted more position players instead of pitchers
– kept some combination of Andrelton/Wood/Kimbrel
– and so avoided acquiring Kemp or even Markakis
…then join the club.
@68, Something sort of like that. I’m not sure I want Longoria for this team.
@69 Longo is about to turn 32, and these days he’s good for about 20 HRs / .750 OPS a year. Sounds like Just A Guy to me, to use your terminology.
He’s going to want to spend on Moustakas. So would I, but we’re going to get outbid.
@72 But Mike Moustakas has a career OPS of .730 and this is the very first season he’s hit more than 22 HRs… Just Another Guy! #Sad!
(From a statistical standpoint, Moustakas looks pretty meh – a fine hitter, but more like ‘marginally better Matt Adams’ than a difference-maker. He looks like a 2 war/season guy to me.)
Hitting-wise, Moustakas appeared to figure it out in 2015. He was hurt in 2016, which obscures the point — and maybe should our top concern with him. I think it’s reasonable given his track record to expect better defense than WAR gives him credit for this season. So I think he’s more a 3 WAR player. But this is all moot because someone will pay him more than we will.
Rosterbation in September. We’re going to be chaffed by December.
I hope everybody stocked up on lotion. We should consider trading for Josh Donaldson.
Wouldn’t it be cheaper to trade for the guy who dresses in all white and sits out in center field at the Rogers Center?
Different positions admittedly and apples to pears, but I doubt Salad Swanson ever has a season as good as Mike Moustakas has ever had.
@78 LOL. Unless you want to append some arbitrary qualifiers to “season” or “good” then you’re already wrong – Moose had 0.2 fWAR in 2011 (365 PA), 0.5 fWAR in 2014 (500 PA), and 0.7 fWAR in 2016 (113 PA). Dansby had 0.8 fWAR last year (145 PA).
More to the point – Moose’s second worst full season fWAR is 1.2. I would bet you any amount of money you want to wager than Dansby will have a season fWAR higher than that number.
He’s hit .230 this year with crappy defense. Throw a party.
Nice move of the goalposts there.
Chief – dude, it’s fine if you want to play the pessimist, but you should at least make the effort to put forth defensible positions.
As to your *new* contention: Dansby has rated as a positive defender since he joined the Braves last year. As far as his offense goes, here are some splits for you to look at:
2016 – .302/.361/.442
2017 (before demotion) – .213/.287/.312
2017 (after return) – .292/.394/.400
Dansby is only 23 years old, and with only 170 games played thus far in his MLB career it’s way to early for us to say he’s a meh hitter (which is what his career line looks like right now) or if he’s Derek Jeter With Better Hair (his 2016 and post-return 2017 stats).
Look… Dansby very likely isn’t a middle of the order bat, and that’s OK. I look at him as a guy with a good OBP and decent power – probably something like .280 / .360 / .420 – with positive SS defense and base running. That’s a good team-controlled piece to have.
I disagree. BR has him at average or slightly below average. At any rate, I’d prefer my neutral fielders to hit more. I can suffer an all glove no hit SS, maybe in 1968 more, but not in 2017. He is not that. He makes a few spectacular plays but is not good at the routine plays, much too often.
Yes its too early. On that I agree. His career (1.25 years admittedly) SLG is .360. He better improve a lot to get that up to .420.
New thread.
I can’t be bothered to rosterbate when all I see are Kemp and Markakis. I need new fantasy material.
I know there’s a new thread, but I’ll just post this here.
I suppose if you take the long view, the goalposts haven’t moved at all…
Chief: Our prospects suck. None of them are “elite.”
Acuna?
Chief: Except Acuna.
Seems like the #1 prospect in baseball is a pretty big exception…
But since even Mike Trout can’t carry his team to a championship singlehandedly, why does this standard matter?
Chief: It matters because our farm system is not “elite.” Elite farm systems can project a major leaguer at every position.
Then what team has an elite farm system?
Chief: …
And if you can acquire quality players via trade or free agency, why does this standard matter?
Chief: It matters because this team will never spend on big ticket free agents!
Big ticket free agents aren’t particularly great investments. Lately, they seem to bust at similar rates to prospects.
Why not trade prospects for younger, cost-controlled players instead?
Chief: …
And who’s to say this regime won’t spend in the future?
Chief: We should’ve been spending on free agents earlier! I would’ve spent on free agents and then tried to plug holes with prospects!
Then what specifically would you have done differently? Who would you have signed?
Chief: …Dansby sucks.