6-3 Redux

Talking Playoffs on June 6th

Braving every form of jinx, I want to talk about the playoffs. Using the tools I talked about yesterday, it is a simple matter to project the rest of the season forward and get expectations for all 30 teams. Here is the result of that process:

NL East

Team	1	2	3	4	5	E[W]
ATL	97.3%	2.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	99.4
PHI	2.0%	60.7%	28.3%	7.4%	1.5%	85.2
WAS	0.7%	30.8%	47.6%	17.1%	3.9%	82.6
MIA	0.0%	4.8%	18.2%	49.9%	27.1%	76.1
NYN	0.0%	1.2%	5.8%	25.6%	67.5%	72.7

NL Central

Team	1	2	3	4	5	E[W]
MIL	76.7%	16.2%	4.7%	2.0%	0.4%	94.0
SLN	13.3%	36.5%	26.4%	16.8%	7.1%	87.0
PIT	4.8%	21.7%	29.2%	29.1%	15.2%	84.1
CHN	4.6%	21.0%	28.4%	29.2%	16.8%	83.6
CIN	0.8%	4.6%	11.2%	23.0%	60.5%	79.1

NL West

Team	1	2	3	4	5	E[W]
LAN	95.7%	3.9%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	96.4
ARI	2.8%	54.3%	36.7%	5.8%	0.4%	83.4
SDN	1.5%	38.9%	48.3%	10.4%	0.9%	81.3
SFN	0.0%	2.6%	12.9%	63.3%	21.1%	72.2
COL	0.0%	0.2%	1.7%	20.5%	77.6%	67.0

AL East

Team	1	2	3	4	5	E[W]
TBA	71.1%	27.2%	1.5%	0.2%	0.0%	94.9
NYA	28.2%	63.1%	7.0%	1.5%	0.2%	90.2
BAL	0.4%	4.8%	40.5%	35.4%	18.9%	78.9
TOR	0.3%	3.8%	37.5%	35.7%	22.7%	78.1
BOS	0.1%	1.1%	13.5%	27.2%	58.1%	74.7

AL Central

Team	1	2	3	4	5	E[W]
CLE	72.6%	23.6%	3.4%	0.3%	0.0%	88.2
CHA	24.6%	56.7%	15.3%	2.9%	0.5%	82.9
MIN	2.5%	16.4%	57.8%	17.5%	5.8%	76.6
DET	0.1%	1.9%	12.1%	38.9%	47.0%	69.9
KCA	0.1%	1.4%	11.3%	40.4%	46.8%	69.4

AL West

Team	1	2	3	4	5	E[W]
SEA	47.0%	27.9%	16.2%	8.1%	0.8%	82.5
TEX	28.0%	29.0%	28.3%	12.3%	2.4%	80.7
ATH	19.8%	30.2%	29.1%	17.5%	3.4%	79.7
HOU	5.0%	11.7%	22.9%	46.8%	13.7%	75.6
ANA	0.3%	1.2%	3.5%	15.3%	79.7%	67.6

With one notable exception, these results aren’t startlingly different than the go-to equivalent tables at Fangraphs. Fangraphs has us at 88% to win the division, while I have it at 97%. That’s different, but the reason for the difference is, to the extent I understand their method, fairly obvious. They simulate the season forward with much more microdetail and they utilize momentum. As ububba points out, in the last 35 games, the Phillies have actually pulled two games closer to the Braves, not because the Braves’ pace has slacked off, but because the Phillies are playing at the Braves’ level since they fired Robby Thompson. If you believe that that level of performance is permanent, then the Phillies’ chances of passing the Braves is considerably higher than if you refuse to ignore their first few terrible weeks. That’s understandable and maybe even sensible.

But what’s up with the Yankees and Tampa Bay? I have Tampa Bay the clear favorite to win the division and Fangraphs has the Yankees. Fangraphs supposedly factors in injuries, so unless you’re going to tell me the Yankees are better without Judge for at least a month I have no idea where this could be coming from. Compare the Yankees and Rays with the Mariners and Rangers. In one case the team with the 1.5 game lead has a 64% chance to win the division and in the other they have a 28% chance. Nothing about their remaining schedules explains this either. I agree that my model appears to make the Yankee’s 1.5 game deficit appear more daunting than I think it probably is, but I certainly wouldn’t flip the percentages and make them a large favorite. I don;t believe in the famed East Coast bias, but thinks like this leave me suspicious.

Anyway… I’ve got a computer program that generates this now, and I’ll update it every now and then. i don’t think you can depend on these numbers with any absolute confidence, but changes in these numbers as the season goes on should be informative.

Talking History on June 6th

June 6th, of course, marks D-Day, the beginning of the end of WWII. Nothing the Braves do this season or any other season, and nothing I have done in my life or will do with what remains of it, comes anywhere near the bravery and valor of those who fought there. Something worth remembering.

I will be on a luxury cruise passing Omaha Beach on June 22nd; without the sacrifices made 81 years ago, I suspect that would not have been possible. (Awkward juxtaposition. I will be on something considerably more comfortable than an LST.)

The Game

Newly purchased Austin Wynns started at catcher today, as Chadwick Tromp is probably going back to Gwinnett. (Does Arte Moreno need the money?) Wynns is 35 and he can’t hit, though he did have a good couple of weeks last year for the Reds. If I were Chadwick Tromp, I’d be pretty depressed… [actually I wouldn’t, as I’d be able to say that I was once a major league baseball player.] I guess Wynns has more pop than Tromp (19 HR in 826 PA) but we’re really just waiting for Baldwin to come back next week, so unless they don’t like the way Tromp catches, I’m not sure I see the point. In any case, there’s a guy in the Hall of Fame with the last name Chadwick, but there’s nobody in the Hall of Fame with last name Austin. That would be my criterion. (He went 0-4.)

Last night, I mistakenly called Braxton Ashcraft the Former Attorney General: that wasn’t him. That was Pam Bondi. Braxton Ashcraft is actually the adopted child of Toni Braxton. And he began to Un-Break the Heart of the Atlanta Braves in the first inning, giving up two runs on four hits. The Braves added a third run on an overthrow of 2nd on an attempted steal.

The Pirates got that run back in the next half-inning on a couple of doubles off Spencer Strider. The third double brought home a second run, but Oneil Cruz was thrown out by a fair margin trying to score from first on a nice relay from Acuña to Olson to Wynns. In the top of the fifth, the Pirates scratched out a run on a single/wild pitch/groundout/sacfly to tie the game.

Ronald Acuña Jr. led off the bottom of the fifth with a single. After a rare out from Dubón, Matt olson singled and they both moved up on a wild pitch. An Albies sac fly got the lead back. The Dom Smith hit a two run oppo to take a three-run lead.

Strider was done after five innings and the mound was inherited by the other Dylan. He passed the baton Dylan Lee for the 7th, and it appeared that yesterday’s pattern was going to repeat, with Dodd substituted for Fuentes. But no. Tyler Kinley subbed in for Robert Suarez. Dtiggy? Letiggy? Nah… I have to put the thinking cap on again for that threesome. Maybe Leeklesias.

Tomorrow, it’s Bryce Elder against Former MLB Commissioner Bubba Chandler for a possible sweep. If it’s 6-3 again, I’ll tell you the last time a three-game series had exactly the same score in every game.