Selling low

What if the Braves had traded Martin Prado before the season? I can’t recall any discussion of it, but the thought should have at least crossed their minds. What quality of prospect would he have brought? A pretty good one, I bet.

At any rate, I see no reason to think that Prado won’t rebound from his subpar season. Leaving aside that he was remarkably consistent from 2008-2010, Prado’s infection clearly caused him serious problems and was probably the main reason for the slump he had in the second half. Prado was hitting .277/.324/.438 when he got sick, and .294/.351/.513 over the last month. After his return, he hit .244/.283/.339. It’s not guaranteed that the old Prado would return if the Braves trade him, but it’s very likely.

On the other hand, I don’t think it would be selling low to trade Jair Jurrjens right now. I doubt his value will rise.

112 thoughts on “Selling low”

  1. I basically agree with this. The problem, however, is that Prado may still be the more valuable trade chip, even with his awful season. To get a top prospect they’ll probably have to deal both of them together, and still they would never land a guy like Myers.

    My guess is that they’ll deal at least one of them for mere salary relief, and then spend a bit to add a new LF. But that’s just a guess.

  2. I was hoping that the Braves would keep Prado but I understand the dollars part of the equation. And there is the gnawing doubt on my part that his good years were the outliers and not his true performance level. Yeah I know that he has been really good at the highest level for 2 years but his value is batting average heavy and thus subject to the vagaries of luck. The Braves must have some plan to acquire a corner outfielder or trading Martin makes little sense.

  3. Interesting fact from the Ala/LSU game. Marquis Maze claims that the last punt that sailed over his head hit a CBS camera wire which completely changed the trajectory. I think this was the biggest play in the game and was the difference in Bama playing conservatively to go into OT or go for the endzone.

    This is not a complaint about unfairness – the same thing could have happened to LSU – but it angers me that CBS camera wires could have such a huge impact on the game, either way.

  4. The problem with losing Prado is that a big black hole opens up at post-2012 3B. Counting on a left side of Pastornicky/Simmons and Terdoslavich/Salcedo in 2013 seems pretty risky. That’s ignoring the fact that Chipper will most certainly not play more than 120-130 games next year and there’s no good fill-in for him then without Prado. I guess Uggla would be an option if such a large portion of his errors at 2B weren’t of the throwing variety, but that just shifts the problem anyway.

  5. @5
    It seems like everyone is already counting Chipper out in 2013. He does have an option.

    Completely agreed on Prado. Trading him seems unwise, especially if the Braves can trade Jurrjens for a prospect and/or LF.

  6. Well getting Chipper’s salary off the books opens up a trade or FA signing. I highly doubt that we try and replace his bat with anyone within the organization.

  7. The thought of snagging Ryan Zimmerman from the Nats is highly titillating. They’ve rather noticeably failed to extend him for a while now.

  8. @4

    Maze shouldn’t have been in the game. He looked like he couldn’t cut at all.

    Don’t worry. They will play again

  9. Prado’s offensive value is somewhat BA heavy, but not as much as you might think. His ISO power numbers were around .150 from 2008-2010, which is actually right on the league average for position players due to Prado’s (overlooked) skill at hitting doubles. He walked a little less than average, but not terribly so. Hitting .310 with those other numbers has made him a significant offensive presence, but (especially in the current climate) he would still be helping if he hit .285.

    Prado’s lack of prospect status still sort of dogs him to this day — even when he plays well for long periods of time, people have trouble believing it. And yet he was putting out a consistent level of performance for almost three years before he got sick.

  10. Can the Braves afford to put Prado back in LF for next year? I dont think they want to transition him back into a super utility role.

  11. @7
    They’re trying everything they can to replace his bat within the organization, including moving both Terdoslavich and Salcedo to 3b.

  12. David Wright and Kevin Youkilis are the only semi-appealing 3B FAs in 2013. The former will be 30; the latter, 34.

  13. David Wright’s career arc is that of a player about four years older than he is, which is weird for someone of his skill set.

  14. @17
    That’s not a fair assessment of Wright at all. He has had over 600 plate appearances every full year except last. Zimmerman, however, has missed significant time twice in his career with multiple DL stints.

  15. That’s “200-hit Melky Cabrera” to you, sir.

    Still can’t believe that fat tub of goo did P90X for someone else and turned himself into a productive player.
    —————————-

    Vandy opened as a 13-point favorite over my Cats. Oy.

  16. Looks like we don’t get Melky. You can’t win them all. I’ll never forget his gracefulness as he made his throws from center field into right field. Something I’ll probably never see again.

  17. Seriously though, I suppose that is the starter the Royals were looking for and the trade with the Braves is probably dead.

  18. Just my two cents about Bama-LSU, and I’m probably the only one, but I was not overly impressed by anything other than the defense and I certainly wasn’t overly entertained. And yes, I’m an SEC fan, before anyone asks. I get it – those are two of the better defenses in college football history, but there are other aspects to the game than just defense, and to actually be a “great game” at least one or two of those other aspects would’ve had to be highlighted at some point.

    I did not turn away from that game thinking nobody else has a shot to beat either team. And yes, if there is a rematch at the expense of undefeated Stanford, it will be a joke. Besides, wouldn’t you rather see Stanford’s high-powered offense and likely Heisman winning QB (or to a lesser extent Oklahoma State’s high-powered offense) against one of those defenses than watch that reenactment of the Bataan death march all over again? I know I would.

    This system is already stupid enough as is, it becomes even worse when you decide who the two best teams are at the start of the season and then continue inexorably down that path without allowing yourself to so much as even notice other possibilities. They already played, Alabama lost…at home, no less. They should be done unless LSU loses to Arkansas and the tiebreaker craziness leads to Bama winning the SEC championship. Rematches are only acceptable if we get an actual playoff. Until then, pick a team who hasn’t already had a chance.

  19. I dunno, Smitty, but I bet we were involved.

    Rodgers the Younger begins his Heisman campaign on Saturday.

  20. Indeed. SEC East has three teams in the Top 10.

    Vandy has great players with experience.

    UK has great players with a mix of veterans and freshmen.

    Florida also has a mix of talented returners and one of the best freshmen guards around. In fact, I think the Gaytors will be much happier with Beal than they would have been with Rivers.

  21. @25

    I agree. They lost at home. The SEC just isn’t good enough this year to warrant a rematch if Stanford is also undefeated. Of course, Stanford will probably lose to Oregon, and OKST will lose to Oklahoma, and SEC fans will get their rematch.

  22. FWIW, I think the BCS/college-football title process is a joke (as long as we include voters in the process), but I think that Bama got its chance.

    If there’s another undefeated school left, I don’t know how they get another one.

    BTW, not to be a Debbie Downer or anything, but this Penn St/Grand Jury report is one of the most depressing things I’ve ever read. Aside from the graphic details, the apparent pattern of cover-up is beyond shocking.

  23. Even I didnt know Furcal had been this bad.

    •#Braves fans pining for Furcal: He hit .231 w/ .298 OBP/.646 OPS. Hasn’t had 10 SBs in 3 yrs, or10 HRs in 5 yrs. Played 100 g once in 4 yrs. 1 hour ago

  24. Paterno is not going to last the week. You can’t rest your laurels on the legal minimum. Twelve years since the initial investigation with multiple eyewitness accounts during that time, and it took a high school administration to make something happen. Sandusky being able to have on-campus overnight camps seven years since the eyewitness reporting of a rape to Paterno. He is rightfully going to be crucified (no pun intended) for this.

    /and you can bet we haven’t reached bottom yet. There will be more evidence and complainants.

    //and if by some miracle he does last the week and the student body does anything but turn their backs on him during the game on Saturday, I’ll think a good bit less of them too.

  25. Well, I’m in favor of a rematch. At any event, if there were a playoff and it wasn’t conference champions only, would anyone here care to bet that it wouldn’t result in a rematch? How often have two ACC or two Big East teams met in the Final Four?

  26. I’d be surprised if Paterno survived another week, to be honest.

    If you read the Grand Jury Report, especially the bit about the ’98 university-police incident report on Sandusky, it defies belief (on my part anyway) that Paterno didn’t know something about it.

    As I heard a Penn State grad say today, “We have now ceded the moral high ground.”

    EDIT: Jinx, Spike.

  27. I’m still shocked. How could they not say anything? There are very few things that are black and white, but this is one.

    If Okie St. runs the table, they deserve a spot in the title game. Otherwise, I support a rematch. Though…the Les Miles bowl is somewhat sickening.

  28. I would imagine Joe Pa announces he is hanging it up at the end of the year.

    Really a bizarre story.

  29. I’m thoroughly shocked by everything about this, other than the early attempt to protect Paterno. The crime is shocking, the venue and perpetrator are shocking. Other than the crime itself, the saddest thing about it is that Paterno not only won’t be able to exit on his own terms, but it turns out he doesn’t deserve to. Sure, he’s not everyone’s kindly grandpa he gets painted as being, but he essentially built the program and the facility from nothing, and I loved how he thumbed his nose at everyone telling him it was time to go, because who the hell did they think they were? When Penn State got good again after a few down years, it was a particular and rare sort of triumph — an old but immensely accomplished man telling the snot-noses where to stick it.

    And now it turns out the critics were right, in the sickest — really, the sickest — possible way. Sandusky enjoyed the patronage of an absentee king, who is turning out to be, at best, a ridiculous old fool. It’s a capital-T tragedy.

  30. So, I have to wait until 1:00 on Thursday to hear a final word on Poythress? I’m already sick…

  31. Speaking of feeling sick, CAC thinks Jack Wilson is a possiblity at SS for next year until Pastornicky is ready.

  32. @40
    If the Yanks are suitors, I’d like a prospect (Mason Williams looks like he’d be fun to watch develop) , Joba Chamberlain, and Nick Swisher.

  33. JoPa is just about senile so he may get a pass. My school, UVA, interviewed Sandusky for head football coach in 2001 with glowing reccomendations from JoPa. But for the grace of God ……………….

  34. If we miss on Poythress, we’ll get Jarnell Stokes, Gary Harris or both. Football recruiting grays my hair. Basketball recruiting helps me sleep.

  35. Frank Wren is going all Chuck Lamar on us.

    I like it!

    In all seriousness, I would rather take a tighter deal centered around one or two great players/prospects instead of the “quantity over quality” that Kansas City reeled in for Greinke.

  36. @49

    I was hoping Stokes would go to the Vols.

    I can’t wait until we can hire Pearl back in three years…

  37. The PSU situation is awful, but the media surrounding it right now reeks of “guilty until proven innocent.”

    From what I gather, Joe reported the accusation to the AD and campus police. I don’t know what else was expected of him unless it was to put on a cape and take care of matters himself (which is illegal, even in a non-ridiculous sense).

  38. @50

    I don’t know. Odds are Alcides Escobar will be better than anything we trot out at shortstop, Lorenzo Cain has nothing left to prove in the minors, Sickels has Jake Odorizzi as a B+ prospect, and Jeffress still has an arm if he can lay off the weed.

    Not bad for two years of a head-case pitcher at 13 MM per who choked in the playoffs

  39. @34

    Apparently, if DOB receives more than one reply to a tweet, the fans have spoken. #stilladouche

  40. Access to the Penn State football facilities, and thus to the kids who attended football camps there, was Paterno’s to give and take away. Given the nature of the allegations, just kicking the problem upstairs isn’t enough. This isn’t recruiting violations or steroids or other garden-variety sports issues, it’s years of child rape. The moral obligation goes beyond buck-passing and plausible deniability. The term “lack of institutional control” wasn’t invented for this type of situation, but it certainly fits.

    For what it’s worth, all the coverage I’ve seen has included plenty of caveats about the ongoing nature of the investigation.

  41. Mac would not approve of this line of convo, but seriously, an eyewitness tells you he’s seen one of your coaches with a boy in the shower after hours, you know he’s already been investigated at least once, and you don’t even bother to follow up? These facts are not in dispute. No one even bothered to learn the little boys name and all that implies. Sorry, that’s plenty for me.

    /perhaps biased dad

  42. And ffs, Joe Paterno IS Penn State University – reporting it to an AD who wouldn’t exist without his say-so means the only way the Schultz/Curley lame-ass “they were just horsing around” story is the end of it is with his tacit approval.

  43. Hasn’t Prado been on the DL every year, multiple times? At least Chipper waited until he was in his 30s to start missing time.

  44. A Jurrjens/Greinke comparison…

    Jurrjens and Greinke comparison with B-ref’s WAR:
    Greinke: 24.4 WAR in 1279.2 innings
    Jurrjens: 11.9 WAR in 702.1 innings

    If Jurrjens continues same production, here’s where he’d sit after 1279.2 innings thrown:
    20.7 WAR (3.7 WAR less which equates to about .5 WAR every 200 innings)

    Considering that Jurrjens will come at a price tag around 13-14 million less over 2 years than what Greinke did, the reported scenario shouldnt be that far-fetched especially considering the Royals didn’t particulary “sell high” on Greinke.

  45. @61

    I agree to a certain extent, but injury history should play a large factor in any potential deal. Or rather, JJ’s extensive and Greinke’s (outside of mental) lack of.

  46. @61, It’s not just the objective value of the player in question, either. It’s also what the market will bear. Lots of teams want SP, and even with his injury history, Jurrjens is the best thing on the market that’s not C.J. Wilson.

    Wren should wait until Wilson is signed and let the deal come to him. It won’t be the Greinke package, but I think he could get close.

  47. Happy birthday, Alex!

    #53
    The media are merely using the Grand Jury report as a source & that report is as damning (for the football program and the university) as anything I’ve ever read. Read it & I tend to believe that the media aren’t on your list of villains.

    http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/uploadedFiles/Press/Sandusky-Grand-Jury-Presentment.pdf

    At the very least, Paterno did nothing to follow up on the original 2002 complaint that he passed onto the AD. You can only conclude that he cared more about the perception of the Penn State brand than he did about any of the kids.

  48. Greinke and Jair’s first 4 years (taking into account the injured year for Greinke and the partial year for Jair)

    Grienke: 658IP 1.338WHIP ERA+106 11.4 WAR
    Jurrjens: 702.1IP 1.284WHIP ERA+120 11.9 WAR

  49. If..
    Florida adds a stout pitcher to go along with Johnson and a top-notch offensive FA to go along with Hanley, Stanton, LOMO,and company, they’re going to be really good.

    And if…
    Washington adds a stout pitcher to go along with Strassburg and Zimmerman and a top not offensive FA to go along with Zimmerman, Werth, and Morse, they’re going to be really good.

    Our division already has the best collected pitching in the NL. Add a few elite hitters and this is going to get really tough.

  50. @73 Nats want Oswalt, apparently. And I keep reading that the Marlins are ready to spend money this offseason. So you’re probably right.

  51. @72 – The scouting video made me a believer. Guy can leg press 1200 pounds including two of his friends!

  52. Washington has the potential to be really good. Strasburg, Oswalt, Zimmerman has a lot of potential but they would have to stay healthy. Their offense is very good, watch them add Fielder and move Morse back to LF.

  53. Georgia folks – don’t forget to vote on at least one issue that is near and dear to my heart today, if it’s on the ballot in your county….cheers!

  54. I hear Poythress to Vandy. If so, congrats. Sounds like a great kid.

    Oh, and when I vote alone, I vote for my old pal Jimmy Beam.

  55. I assume it’s true but I haven’t heard any more on it. If it did, it’s just a part of the field and nothing can or should be done about it. It’s still a bummer if it affected the outcome, but as others pointed out, there were several other mistakes that were made that put them in that position.

  56. Watching the kick with like 4 other people, no one seemed to think the ball had hit anything, and I don’t imagine it could’ve gone as far as it did in the air if it had hit into something. Just looked like the punter really boomed it line-drive style, and Maze wasn’t expecthing that. I don’t see how a wire can knock a ball 5-10 yards further. Just don’t make a lot of sense.

  57. So, a second shot from the fan of the program who has had to replace all three of the head coaches of all three major sports due to improprieties.

    Even my Vol in-laws have had to back off that refrain lately. (But they still get me with chants of “TWENTY-SIX! TWENTY-SIX!”)

  58. What a terrible way for Joe Paterno to go out. 46 years of good erased instantly.

    After watching a day’s worth of Big 10 football the LSU Alabamba matchup was instructive. I get it that these are the SEC’s elite teams but the difference in team speed especially on defense is very evident.

    Carlos Beltran for left field. I know we won’t get him but …

    Still on a high after Northwestern’s upset win over Nebraska. It almost takes the sting out of our loss to Army early this season. Hoping to get to Shreveport for the Poulan Weedeater Bowl. Does that still exist?

  59. Johnny, at least the players will enjoy getting their snakeskin boots.

    I keep thinking about Joe Posnanski. There he is in Happy Valley, already committed to living there through the football season to write what was surely going to be a valedictory biography of JoePa. This is a job particularly suited to Posnanski who, by his own admission, is easily awed by sporting legends, and who projects decency to the point of overselling it sometimes.

    So what happens now? The publisher will presumably cancel the hagiography, but they’re also in prime position to commission the definitive inside account of the scandal — a book which, by the way, will probably sell many more copies. They already have boots on the ground, so to speak. But this new story requires a Halberstam, or a Mailer, or someone of that ilk. I wonder if Posnanski is up to the task, or if he even has the stomach for it.

  60. Frank Wren discarded the idea of Pastornicky being the ’12 starting SS on MLB radio today. Said they’d likely upgrade via trade.

  61. @86

    We only had to replace one head coach due to improprieties.

    Fulmer and Raleigh was performance and Kiffin left.

  62. #88 – I had a college buddy from Shreveport. He called it Shrevepatch. I doubt any of our younger bloggers will get it since I don’t think L’il Abner is published these days.
    Around here the ‘tucky’ suffix is used to disparage our southern suburbs. ex. Grove City OH is almost universally known around here as Grovetucky.

    Before my fellow bloggers from the great state of Kentucky flame me, remember I am from Wrong Carolina.

    Carlos Beltran for left field.

  63. Definition of IRONIC
    1 : relating to, containing, or constituting irony

    Example of IRONIC
    1. It’s ironic that Smitty mocks Calipari for improprieties when multiple Tennessee coaches have been terminated for similar offenses.

  64. That’s really all I can think of csg. And each has baggage. Maybe Jason Donald or Asdrubal Cabrera out of cleveland?

    The problem is, teams don’t really trade good shortstops.

  65. Can E O’F be replaced by people in system? How much could he bring. Hate to lose him, but if someone wants to overpay.

  66. No excuse for Paterno, but …

    It turns out that it wasn’t he, but the President (who had publicly supported the two administration officials who were arrested – one of whom was in charge of the campus police)that canceled the press conference.

    Seems JoPa was prepared to sing. And he may just have told how he reported it up the chain and was told “We investigated. Just a misunderstanding. Nothing to see here. Go back to sleep.”

    If he had done so convincingly, the mob would have SPRINTED to the President’s office. His dwellings might seriously be on fire right now.

    Just a theory.
    ————-

    Oh, and yeah, those cosmopolitan Ohioans.

  67. Not saying JoPa is innocent. Just saying there is some real evil here. And I don’t think it’s Joe.
    —————

    No, Billy Clyde Gillispie was the worst hire in the history of hires. Unless Joker Philips turns out to be the worst hire in the history of hires. (Which is saying a lot, because Bill Curry retired the award.)

  68. Jim Harrick has an argument. And I’m not sure if they meet the criteria, but Ray Goff and Ron Jirsa are at least in the room.

  69. #102
    Penn State is about to be leveled with lawsuits. The school canceled the press conference because they don’t want an 85-year-old man speaking on behalf of the school anymore & perhaps saying anything that can be used against it. I’d guess that the university is being run by lawyers at the moment.

  70. @102

    JoePa doens’t take orders from the President of Penn State.

    Also, from Paterno’s appearance earlier today:
    JoePa:

    “It’s hard for me to tell you how much this means to me. I’ve lived for this place, and I’ve lived for people like you guys and girls, and I’m just so happy to see that you could feel so strongly about us and about your school. The kids that were victims or whatever they want to say, I think we all ought to say a prayer for them. Tough life, when people do certain things to you. Anyway, you’ve been great. Everything’s great, all right.”

    Does Joe Paterno understand that 20 victims (or according to him “whatever they want to say”) have now come forward? Kids that were raped, sodomized, molested, you name it?

    Coach Joe Paterno, you are a joke and merely a shred of what your reputation belies.

  71. 105 – Personally, I think there’s a special place in hell for those who would turn a blind eye to pederasty. And it probably has a window where they have a nice, clear view of what happens in the special place reserved for those who commit pederasty.

    IF it can be determined that Joe did so much as fail to follow up on the original allegation, because he didn’t want anything to come out and harm the football program… then he should be sodomized.

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