Birdbrain in your dugout game thread: July 5, Braves at Rockies

Do you realize that if the Braves maintain their current record, Fredi could easily be the manager of the year?

114 thoughts on “Birdbrain in your dugout game thread: July 5, Braves at Rockies”

  1. How long will Fredi Gonzalez be the manager? Anyone here think Gonzalez will still be the Braves’ manager at the start of, say, the 2014 regular season?

  2. 2014 is a well-chosen cutoff, as JJ, Prado, and McCann are all here through 2013. Add Freeman, Hanson, and Heyward to that, and I’d say that Fredi’s job is pretty safe through 2013.

  3. As annoying as Fredi is as a manager he still has the Braves on a 94 win pace and is winning the wild card by 4 games. That’s really about as good as anyone could have hoped for and the fact that they’ve done it while Uggla has been a negative player, Heyward has been injured and unproductive for 2 months, Prado has been out for a month, and there have been other injuries in the bullpen to deal with… That’s not bad at all really. I agree Fredi probably takes away more from the table than he gives but it also shows how little a manager actually means to success on the field. So long as the clubhouse stays with him and he wins then there’s not much to complain about.

    As for trading Jurrjens, there is no way that should happen in the middle of this season. Whether or not he’s outperforming his peripherals or not is irrelevant. Yeah, he’s probably not an all-star starter caliber pitcher like he’s been the first half on the year and will likely regress some, but you can’t trade a guy like that in the middle of the season and expect to win anything. This team can win the world series THIS year. You don’t have to be the best team to win it as has been proven many times the last decade, you just have to have starting pitching that can carry you and some timely hits. Edgar Renteria was WS MVP last year folks… We don’t need a gluttony of star players to do this. Trading Jurrjens though would be a mistake.

    I’m not saying that you can’t explore the possibility of trading him in the off season. That makes absolute sense considering what they have coming up and the fact that his value may never be higher.

    As far as in season trades go I wouldn’t want to see anyone higher than Mike Minor get traded. I think you won’t get near enough for Beachy for what it looks like he could be, especially when the market looks like Carlos Quentin or Michael Bourne. That would be a mistake as well. I’d like to see how the team hits in the second half of the year with a healthy Prado and Heyward and maybe if Uggla can ever crawl out from under his ass this team doesn’t need any offensive upgrades. Not to mention that Moylan and Medlen will come back at some point which means less Sherrill, Linebrink, and Proctor.

    Essentially I want to see what this team can do as is because I don’t think there’s good value for what they would have to give up midseason.

  4. McCann is a free agent after the 2012 season is over, isn’t he? Wonder what his next contract will look like.

    edit: Has a club option for 2013.

  5. That all star pitcher from San Fran with the losing record reverted to mean or he is really doing better his record indicate?

  6. 14: Who, Lincecum? He’s having a typically amazing season, and as always, “pitcher wins” are about as good a metric as “nose hairs” to judge an SP’s success or failure. Or is this sarcasm? I can’t tell.

  7. As my friend wisely pointed out, Clint Hurdle from Pittsburgh will save us from such a fate (assuming the Pirates end above 500)

  8. Dear Fredi,

    I’m your only friend, I’m not your only friend, but I’m your little glowing friend, but really I’m not actually your friend. But I am.

    Seriously. Watch your back, man.

  9. I for one do not think it’s terrible that our stud young starter fresh off the DL with numbly tinglepuss in his throwing shoulder might have to take the ASG weekend off completely. I know, I know. I’m evil.

  10. I’d like to come up to Fred and say, “I’d like to change your mind. By hitting with a rock (I said), though I am not unkind…”

  11. FYI Hudson is four wins away from being the winningest Atlanta Brave not named Niekro, Glavine, Smoltz, or Maddux. His 84th win will surpass the not-quite-immortal Pat Jarvis’s 83. Jarvis was second to Knucksie on the Atlanta career list from 1969-93.

  12. #20 – I, also, could care less if any of the Braves players start/play in the ASG. Its a complete joke anyways.

  13. @21, what’s with your new campaign of snark against DIPS-related formulae? I have problems with xFIP, too. I think it can be misleading, and I have some issues with the results that supposedly show it to be a better predictor of ERA than FIP. However, it can be useful. It helps to illuminate when someone has been especially lucky avoiding homeruns.

    You’re not usually one to toss out information that can illustrate a real effect just because it contradicts your thesis. In Jurrjens’ case, just being really, really good by ordinary measures doesn’t explain his level of success in runs allowed, and this xFIP number helps to illustrate how he’s been successful. It’s useful information. Thought experiments like xFIP that normalize the data by a particular variable show us useful things. xFIP isn’t an end. It’s a way of illustrating a point.

  14. I think we’re heading for a 2.60 ERA for Jurrjens this season, whereupon both sides of the debate will declare victory.

  15. @27, because I am seeing an alarming trend of assumption that these new pitching and fielding stats are somehow reliably equivalent to offensive stats for comparative purposes, which they certainly are not yet. I am fine with someone saying “well traditional stats undervalue so and so”. But to hear “well so and so isn’t as good as you think he is and definitely going to regress to the mean” that’s a bit much.

    You can raise your hand and point out trends, possibilities, fine, but to claim it as a lead pipe certainty based on xFIP? JJ has done what he has done – you can’t argue that. But it sets up quite a convenient tautology to say that he’s only done it because of luck, so if he does it more, he’s just still lucky and if he does it less it’s because i told you so. Heads I win tails you lose.

    Same with someone saying Matt Kemp was unquestionably -25 runs in CF because whatever website published that figure. Heck we don’t even have agreement on how these things ought be calculated in some cases, let alone confidence in what they represent. I just wish folks would take a step back and realize these things are far from mature, and you can’t just throw them out as game set and match evidence of anything.

  16. I am not putting words in anyone’s mouth here, for the record – I used “someone” rather than a name to make it clear these are examples of the type of speech I hear from time to time, not just here but in other places.

  17. Does Ron Gant just make stuff up as he goes along? How does Gant figure Schafer was specifically looking to get a hit up the middle? Or assert that he’s been a “spark” in the leadoff spot with his current stats?

  18. Whatever Freddie’s having for breakfast, I want some.

    Whatever Fredi’s having for breakfast, on the other hand, needs to be taken off the shelves by the FDA.

  19. Also, my favorite side effect of Freeman’s HR binge is that Powell and Sutton have been giving Keith Law hell for a comments he made on 680AM in Atlanta about Freeman not having much power potential. Two of my favorite people dissing on one of my recent least favorites makes for very gratifying radio.

  20. The one nice thing about having numbers as bad as Uggla’s is that you can go 1-for-15 and no one can tell.

  21. @32

    Nothing compares to one of the pregame guys (Lemke I think), complimenting the decision to bat Agon 2nd on Saturday. To paraphrase, he said Alex got 2 hits batting 2nd a month ago and that hes a good on base guy. I almost wrecked my car on the way to Turner Field

  22. 45 – As long as those are not the thoughts of the guys who run the front office, I’m ok with it. The media will be the media, and groupthink is nothing new.

  23. They are the thoughts of the manager: who apparently never wants the best catcher in baseball to have another multi-RBI opportunity and is thus batting Schafer and Gonzalez in front of him.

  24. Oh look, another stubborn moron fails at his job by refusing to set his ego aside to get it right. When will MLB deal with this persistent incompetence?

  25. @46

    Apparently the front office doesn’t have to much of a problem with it, it keeps happening again and again. I know guys are hurt, but someone should have noticed by now that “we” (fredi) fills out some strange line ups.

    Also, McCann 2 at bats, yet to have a base runner. I believe that makes 6 straight such at bats

  26. Heyward = not going well right now. We haven’t seen the guy capable of a 1.000 OPS at all this year. What’s worse is, it doesn’t appear to me that his swing is hampered by injury right now – he’s just not hitting.

  27. @67, Brian was nailed in the balls. He’s playing through it. It looked painful.

  28. @67 – BMac just took a foul ball straight to the nads. He was on the ground writhing in pain.

  29. @67 the best catcher in baseball just got hit in the worst place for a foul ball. but he’s staying in!

  30. Ron Gant: “Uggla needs to look to hit this up the middle…”

    [Uggla hits home run]

  31. So… I just read the MLB gameday correctly? I assumed there was some mistake.

  32. Out of Dan’s last seven hits, four have been home runs. Of course, he’s had 51 plate appearances and 46 at bats in that time (13 games, including this one).

  33. Me to my wife: “I wonder if he’s had his vision checked? It’s a valid question.”

    Uggla: Boom!

  34. Yup, I’d say Venters is still not right. Just like his last outing, he’s got the velocity but is missing his fine control and the ball isn’t sinking like it did early in the year.

    EDIT: That strikeout pitch to Iannetta was pretty sweet. Sorry for doubting you Jonny V.

  35. I don’t see how the catcher for the Rockies could possibly complain about a strike call after some of the ones they’ve gotten tonight.

  36. Believe it or not, this is only the second time all year that Duggla has had two extra base hits in one game.

  37. So… with Pitch F/X, it’s entirely possible to tell what percentage of pitches each umpire calls accurately (I believe the average is 85-90%). There is also nothing preventing the institution of an umpire merit system whereby the worst umps each year are demoted and the best of the minors are promoted, kind of like the English Premier League. Well, nothing preventing it except the umpire’s union. Anyone here good at union-busting?

  38. Really hope Fredi stays true to his word and stops abusing JV so he’s fresh in Sept/Oct.

  39. @98: I had a thought but I think it violates the no politics rule. So, um, never mind.

  40. How many times to we have to hear “Most Saves By A Rookie Before The All Star Break”? I can’t think of too many more insignificant records

  41. When Kimbrel gets that first pitch 96+ fastball in for a strike, the hitters are so forked.

  42. 105 – What about pre-All Star Break holds by a second-year player? Venters has got to be getting close.

  43. 109 – I think Uggla is probably close to setting the record for the worst first half by a 6th year 2nd baseman in the first year of a 5-year, $62 million deal.

  44. “I think Uggla is probably close to setting the record for the worst first half by a 6th year 2nd baseman in the first year of a 5-year, $62 million deal.”

  45. Maybe he’s chasing the record for HR’s with an AVG under .180. I know Rob Deer hit 25 with a .179 AVG one year. I’m too lazy to see if that’s the “record” or not, but Uggla is almost right on pace for that.

  46. 112- It is, and Dan’s now tied for second. (Interestingly, another Brave is high on that list- Ron Gant hit .177 with 9 HR in 285 PA in 1989.)

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