Knicks
I am not much of an NBA fan, and I am even less a Knicks fan. That said, their performance in the playoffs has to draw some admiration. But, for the consequence of the Mets moving today’s game from 8:10 (2:10 am where I am) to 4:15 pm (an almost civilized 10:15 pm) is maybe the best thing the Knicks have done for me in my lifetime.
What an Age We Live In
I didn’t mention it yesterday, but I will mention it today. I am now several miles south of Malaga as we head towards Seville. I am watching a game which, thank God, is beginning at 10 15 pm. The picture is perfect. This is an amazement of the age that those of use who were amazed in our youth when one game a week appeared on our grainy black-and-white CRTs sometimes take for granted. Elon Musk this week became the world’s first trillionaire as SpaceX, which includes Starlink, the satellite service over which I’m watching this game, went public. You are free to think no one should be a trillionaire. You are free to find Elon Musk repugnant (or admirable) in any of hundreds of ways. But you are not free to deny that the existence of Skylink is a public service for which users owe a debt of gratitude that may be overcompensated by SpaceX’s gaudy valuation, but is nonetheless completely amazing.
Spencer Strider
As you all know, he has gone on the injured list with elbow and shoulder pain, as yet unprognosized. Many of you have started in on relitigating AA extensions, which is your prvilege, and maybe even obligation, as a fan. But every deal is a risk. Making no deals out of fear that many of them will bust is a recipe to become a team like the last 20 years in Pittsburgh… a team that refuses to make deals and develops players only to get back crapshoot prospects. Pittsburgh knows better, they just don’t have any money. AA and the Braves are in a very different position. They are not a low-spending team. You might think AA’s job is to make winning bets. That’s not his job. His job is to make a lot of bets and hope that the winning bets compensate for the losers. Strider looks like a bad bet at the moment, but the books aren’t closed on the deal, nor are those who criticize the deal (by and large) taking a portfolio approach. I’m here to say there isn’t any other approach.
I also note it goes both ways. For a long time here, Braves Journal was a place where people asked Frank Wren to pay Michael Bourn “all the money.” Wren didn’t, and it (eventually) turned out to be the right decision. So in the portfolio approach, the deals you don’t make need to be evaluated as well, and since the fans almost never know what they are, actually evaluating the portfolio by looking only at the deals done will give a biased view of General Manager.
The Game
Martin Pérez against Sean Manaea. The early hero was Eli White, who drove Matt Olson home from first on a double and then hit a solo homer in the 4th to make it 2-0. But Perez did his part, efficiently dispatching the Mets lineup the first two times through: 63 pitches and three scattered singles through 5 innings.
A one-out double in the 6th brought in Dylan Lee. He gave up a single to Mark Vientos which brought the score to 2-1. After Didier Fuentes struck out the side on 13 pitches in the 7th, a Michael Harris II solo shot gave the Braves a two run lead back. Robert Suarez followed up with a 14 pitch inning with no danger.
This left Iggy to face the heart of the order in the 9th: Juan Soto hit a homer that was almost Jeffrey Maier’ed but was eventually ruled to be a double. I think the replay guys need some physics training, but now Vientos represented the tying run. He struck out. Marcus Semien walked. Then Francisco Alvarez bounced into a double play to bring road joy after three losses. Game over at very sensible 12:35 am. Thank you again, Knickerbockers.
Win, win, win
I am compelled to note that by even pretty recent standards, that is a hugely quick hook on Pérez. 3 baserunners through 5, 63 (!) pitches, but it was close so he got pulled after one hit.
To be clear, I’m in favor, this is great; he started the sixth on his 19th batter, by my count, which is the third time through the order, and in contemporary baseball if you have an elite pen (and we have the best in baseball) you gotta use it. I love the active managing, using that pen effectively.
Some of that is that the ‘pen had 2 consecutive off days, so Weiss was able to be aggressive.
And if anyone other than Soto had been up, I bet Weiss would have stuck with Perez a little longer. But I agree, when you’ve got Dylan Lee available to face Soto, plus the three who pitched the 7th, 8th, and 9th, the hook there makes sense.
Also, JonathanF, you’ve now been away for 3 games, and we lost the two you didn’t watch and won the one you saw all of. So, you know, make good decisions for the rest of your vacation.
Another early on here in Europe tonight. JonathanF, skip dinner and watch the Braves.
Today at Citi Field, there were more people wearing Knicks jerseys than Mets jerseys. The Knicks, after all, are the one team nearly the entire metro area can agree upon. (Not so many Nets fans, y’see…) The town’s pretty jacked up, as you might imagine. (As a Hawks fan, I’m just watching.)
It’s funny… headed to the late innings, I looked at the Mets lineup & just knew that Fuentes & Suarez wouldn’t have any trouble in the 7th and 8th. Wasn’t sure about Iggy.
BTW, I had a great view of that Soto homer-turned-double in the 9th — it was right below me. I saw the guy reaching over the railing & thought: “Met fans ain’t gonna like this replay call…” I thought they might call Soto out. (And who doesn’t wanna see a Mets version of Steve Bartman?) But the replay did show that the guy, somehow, never touched the ball.
At that point, it didn’t matter whether it was a homer or a double.
Yes, we’ve got some lineup troubles, but this Mets club is pretty bad right now. Don’t lose another to this bunch. Let’s squeeze out a win for the series & move on.
And go Diamond Dogs.
Didi has been a revelation in the bullpen. His stats as a reliever rival those of Lee, Iglesias, and Suarez–and that is an incredibly formidable quartet for high leverage situations. But with Strider’s injury (I’m assuming the worse until we hear otherwise), the team really needs another starter or two. I also assume Fuentes’ long-term future is as a starter. So, do you go ahead and start t0 stretch him out now, so that he can join the rotation for the second half of the season? Or do you leave well enough alone, and wait until next spring to make Didi a starter again?
This is the deepest pen since the early 2010’s. Kinley is 5th on the depth chart at this point.
I think you leave Fuentes in the pen for the rest of the year. For now, make the easy call and put JR Ritchie back in the rotation as you look over the trade options. We definitely could use another starter–I think Ritchie was actually here to replace Holmes, but that might have to wait a bit.
Aaron Bummer was released 4 weeks ago, signed by the Cubs 2 weeks ago, but has yet to pitch in a minor league game. That’s weird. I wonder if he was injured.
Nothing definitive on Strider, per Weiss, but he’s going to see his elbow surgeon, which I think is actually pretty definitive.
I really wouldn’t mind Strider being out for the season. It is so hard to rely on guys like these, so just knowing he’s gone would be nice instead of him being shitty and going down every 6-7 starts.
I’m sad he got neither the Cy Young or the ROY his two great(ish) seasons, but I just think he’s cooked.
Yeah, even if his elbow is structurally sound, you can’t really pencil him in for anything.
I have to say once I saw his velocity dip throughout that last inning, finishing at 88…I kinda thought that was pretty definitive.
Just docked in Seville. I’m taking Timo’s advice, and getting room service after the game. Let no one say I don’t take my role in this team’s success seriously.
Bryce isn’t fooling anyone lately. And the rotation will be stuck with him.
The bad news is that that game sucked. The good news is that at least I know it wasn’t my fault.
Recapped.
I had a weird exchange with Grant McAuley on Twitter yesterday where I compared Strider to Steve Avery. Obviously they’re different pitchers, but the idea is that they’re young pitchers who flamed out due to a lack of oversight. I would also potentially put Schwellenbach going max effort in that group.
Grant said that, in an interview, Steve Avery attributed his flame out to ramping back up too quickly once the strike ended in 1995, which is the first time I’ve ever heard anyone credible completely dismiss how much Avery was ran into the ground before 1995. I cited that Avery’s ERA grew more than a run in 1994 before the strike, threw 766 big league IP before age 24, and Grant just continued to double down saying, “Well, Steve said it was because of the strike, so obviously you’re wrong because he said so,” which I got a kick out of how Grant seems to think athletes tell him the truth all the time. Bless his heart.
I’m still just kinda shocked that 30 years later, there’s any possible narrative for Avery’s demise other than Bobby and Leo ran him into the ground because they were in yearly pennant races. And that we would accept any other narrative for it simply because the athlete told us so. I highly doubt Avery is going to throw Bobby and Leo under the bus.
Like is anyone out there predicting a happy ending for Jacob Misiorowski? Don’t get me wrong, what he’s doing is amazing. But sitting 100MPH and hitting 105MPH almost always comes with a short expiration date. I just found it so bizarre that Grant would die on a hill about Avery.