There has been speculation that the Braves might trade Derek Lowe to the Yankees due to the Evil Empire missing out on all the major free agents, particularly Cliff Lee, and suddenly having a Sabathia and Hughes and Pray for a Deluge pitching staff. The Braves would be foolish to not consider a Lowe trade, but there are some danger points here. In particular, Lowe, whatever you may think of him, is the most reliable starter that the Braves have from the standpoint of “You know he’s going to go out there and pitch five innings every fifth day.” It’s not much, but it’s not unimportant. If you trade Lowe, you are left with a rotation of:
Tim Hudson, two years off of elbow surgery.
Tommy Hanson, still young and mechanically suspect.
Jair Jurrjens, who suffered various ailments all last season and didn’t pitch well anyway.
Mike Minor, rookie who ran out of gas last season.
Brandon Beachy, rookie who came out of nowhere last season.
And with Scott Diamond with the Twins, you don’t have any sort of polished fallback (unless you’re a big Todd Redmond fan) so you’re looking at going with another, very young, rookie in Julio Teheran (or possibly Randall Delgado). Yes, there’s Kenshin Kawakami, but he’s been officially declared an unperson by the front office and they refuse to use him.
So anyway, if you can get something for Lowe, you make a deal. But I don’t think you can trade him right now just for salary relief, unless you have a free agent you think you can sign and work with. Others may disagree.
Lowe is the poster child for the great King Kaufman’s “In defense of league average”:
http://tinyurl.com/2c4rj4n
Also, my JC’d (and JC) trivia:
Juan Castro signed a minor-league deal with the Dodgers. If he plays in the majors in 2011, here’s the list of active position players with longer major-league careers (assuming each also plays in 2011):
Ivan Rodriguez
Jim Thome
Alex Rodriguez
Omar Vizquel
Manny Ramirez
Chipper Jones
I’d like to point out that Cliff Lee’s most similar pitcher through age 31 was Denny Neagle, FWIW. Neagle’s career went quickly downhill after the Braves traded him.
Roy Oswalt’s second most similar pitcher (after Roy Halladay) is Dizzy Dean, though I don’t know if you can compare a pitcher from the 30s-40s.
@1, I had no idea he still wrote about sports. His column was the only sports column I ever read regularly. After he stopped, I stopped renewing my salon.com subscription.
I’ll have to keep his blog on some sort of feed or alert thing.
The Devil Gets Nominated:
http://www.lex18.com/news/calipari-nominated-for-united-nations-peace-award
I really don’t see a scenario where the Yankees trade Gardner for Lowe. He was a 4.0 WAR player last season and is under club control until 2015.
If we actually deal Lowe to the Yankees it will likely be a salary dump with a few fringe prospects in return.
This is probably our only chance to shed the majority of Lowe’s remaining contract, but the trade would weaken our rotation.
I’d pass.
To be fair, there is also a nontrivial chance Medlen could be back after the all star break sometime.
I like Lowe much better now that he’s developed a slider. The Braves should keep him.
Kawakami could be useful in a Buddy Carlyle sort of way, but that ship has clearly sailed. Even though it’s not like he was actually worse than Lowe over the last two years.
(In 2009 and 2010, Derek Lowe had a 4.33 ERA and 93 ERA+, while KK had a 4.32 ERA and 94 ERA+.)
Dont the Yanks have a legit SS prospect? Since Jeter will be there until he cant walk anymore, Id trade Lowe for him. The Yanks would have to take on Lowe’s full salary though, then Id offer a whole lot for Greinke.
If you are speaking of Eduardo Nunez, I’d have a look at this –
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/11/01/dont-count-on-eduardo-nunez-as-derek-jeters-successor/
I like the Lowe for a good prospect idea – hopefully one that can then be flipped to the Royals as part of a Greinke package, or obtain Greinke first with existing prospects (he’d be plenty useful in this roster even as currently constructed) and then try to move Lowe at some point if a good deal comes up.
Bill James notes… “Tim Hudson now has exactly the same career won-lost record as Sandy Koufax—165 wins, 87 losses.”
Remy @8 – agree 100% – it’s made all the difference.
Before that, they’d wait until he got his sinker at or above the knee and just wail.
Well said in the OP, Mac. Derek Lowe isn’t being dramatically over-payed, and if the Braves move him, they’ll be faced with the same sickeningly thin market the Yankees are dealing with. If you want to just play for 2012 (not necessarily a bad plan, although there’s probably some timer on Hudson’s effectiveness), it’s not a bad idea. You’d go into that off-season with over $25M off the books between Chipper and Lowe. But I think the Braves can reach the post-season this year, Phillies or no Phillies, and as such, I don’t think moving Lowe is a good idea unless you’re getting some crazy (and unlikely) value out of it.
If the Cubs think they can move Zambrano we shouldnt have any problems moving KK or Lowe.
Greinke will be tough to get. Royals want “up the middle” prospects. I assume pitching would also suffice, but it’s hard to imagine a deal that doesn’t include Teheran or effectively gut the farm system past him.
I think we COULD move Lowe, it’s a matter of getting the perfect piece for us in return. I’m with Mac, I think unless we get blown away he needs to stay put.
It’s funny how one good month from Lowe, plus a complete lack of impact FA pitching talent, means that his once-untradeable contract suddenly becomes eminently reasonable.
On the other hand, reason and market forces just don’t seem to apply to Kenshin Kawakami. He’s clearly worthy to be a #4-5 starter somewhere, and should be worth his 6.7M salary. For instance, I’d consider KK to be just as good, if not better (the stats say better) than Joe Blanton, who has 2 years, 17M left on his contract… and yet, somehow Blanton could be traded while Kawakami is a complete pariah. Why would the Braves’ inexplicably bad treatment of KK prevent all the teams who could use KK from paying decent value to acquire his services?
Overall, I would be happy if we could trade Lowe to the Yankees for a decent return. I agree that replacing Lowe with Beachy is a probable downgrade – but I’m willing to take that gamble in return for the huge increase in payroll flexibility. A smart re-allocation of those resources (likely into position players) would allow the Braves to keep building a core of good, young, cheap talent, which you need if you want sustainable success on a mid-market budget.
Another problem is that there isn’t exactly a market for Lowe, there’s one suitor. How much could we really demand in return?
I think you’d find Texas interested as well.
Carl Pavano, the same Carl Pavano that has a 14.5 WAR for his 12 year career, is now the top RH starting pitcher not signed. He’ll probably seek a 4/45-50 million dollar deal (and might get it). For the sake of the 2012 season, please God, let the Braves trade Lowe. Otherwise, the Braves will have maximized budget before filling a SS and CF void.
Lowe and a prospect for Swisher.
The Yankees said they were going after Magglio. If they land Magglio, they’ll once again have an outfield surplus (Posada will be full-time DH due to the signing of Russell Martin). Getting Swisher wouldnt be ideal because it would move either him or Heyward to CF for a year, but think of the frickin’ lineup.
Swish could start at 1B against lefties, LF against tough righties, and on Prado/Uggla/Chipper days off. He’d see plenty of time even if he never starts in center. When/if Chipper goes dow, he’s your starting LF. He can start in CF if McClouth doesn’t have it this year. He’s really the ideal candidate.
What if we salary dump both Lowe and Kawakami onto the Yankees and then pickup Beltran from the Mets and sign Millwood to a one year deal. We would still have payroll flexibility in 2012.
spike, i’m convinced!
GET’R DONE, BIRDMAN!
I dont think the Yanks would move Swisher now. I think if they had gotten one of Werth/Crawford then it would be a totally different situation.
Yes, the Yankees certainly won’t try to plug one hole by opening another. That way lies madness.
DLowe for Michael Young?
Is Swisher better than Diaz?
Um… Where would Young play?
Hey, Mac – in your opinion, what happened to the Tide this year?
I’ve been proven wrong, but I still can’t get over feeling like they were the best team in the SEC this year.
@29 – ultimately at 3B.
But you could move him to SS and trade AGON while the market is semi-hot. And, supposedly, the Rangers are after Beltre.
28 – At baseball, yes. Other stuff, I couldn’t say.
1. The offensive line never gelled, and after Florida started packing the front and blitzing, everyone did it and it took away the running game. The interior line in particular was hopeless at picking up blitzes.
2. The young secondary didn’t develop like was hoped, and other than Dre Kirkpatrick we didn’t have any decent cover men. Moreover, the blitzing from the secondary that was so successful in 2009 was a nonfactor.
3. The team’s two best defensive “linemen”, Dareus and Upshaw (actually an OLB who behaved as a DE) played hurt a lot, and nobody else stepped up to help.
4. Without Terrance Cody, some things that worked before became too vulnerable to the run.
5. Both players and assistant coaches lost their hunger/fire and rested on their laurels.
6. Bad luck.
Spot on Mac.
I said the same thing yesterday.
You cannot trade Lowe without a legitimate backup plan. And if Lowe is the Yankees’ backup plan, how does anyone figure we’ll improve from dealing Lowe?
I read earlier today that Lowe’s innings are “not irreplacable.” That’s nonsense.
It only makes sense if somehow we land Greinke, but honestly he’s more of a question mark than an aging Lowe.
@15: Who actually thinks dealing away Zambrano improves the Cubs? He did have a terrible season in 2010, but that isn’t enough to justify getting rid of him.
I promise this is not said with any hint of sarcasm:
It really is interesting to see us arguing about not trading Lowe because of the value he provides. There were times during the last two seasons while he was pitching when folks around here were howling for him to be shot.
Now he is only replaceable by Greinke. Again, not picking on anyone. But it’s funny what happens when you consider the alternatives of a situation.
Also remember that Jurrjens & Medlen were healthy.
Don’t forget the Dark Time that was the late 2008 season, after Hudson got hurt, when the rotation was basically Jurrjens, Jorge Campillo, and anybody who showed up at the ballpark that day and had two arms.
He’s replaceable with a lot of folks. I want to replace him with Greinke though.
Good point Michael, it is interesting to see what a sharp stretch run to end the season will do for your value.
Even so, what pitcher (who is rumored to be or realistically available) would you take over Lowe right now?
Good point about 2008 Mac. I agree that you can’t underestimate the value of a “reliable” (and perhaps not much more than that in 2011) starter. Just think back to any of Kawakami’s starts.
Also, Mac, I have issue with your rotation list should we trade Lowe.
While the comments next to each pitcher didn’t have to all be cynical, I’ve come to respect your style.
However, Hudson doesn’t deserve any cynicism or suspicion heading into 2011.
2010 was clearly his best season as a Brave and his stats would look even nicer if we didn’t ride him like a rented mule to just barely make the playoffs. Some pitchers return from the surgery much stronger. And logic would suggest that his weakening elbow before the surgery accounts for the surge.
[I remembered you pointing out his altering delivery back in 2006 when he did finally tear his ligaments in 2008, though. Whether or not that actually counts as evidence that his elbow was weakening…I just think it’s interesting that a worthy source such as yourself noticed it. Your prediction was early, but you were perhaps onto something.]
Hudson was also much more reliable than Lowe last year.
As for Greinke, I’m not convinced that someone diagnosed with an anxiety disorder and someone who has never been in a game that mattered that much is actually an upgrade. Or even a great idea.
yep, that rotation was one we’ll never forget
Jurrjens, Morton, Campillo, Jo Jo, and Carlyle. Dont forget that Chuck James and James Parr combined for 12 starts. Bennett, Acosta, Tavarez, Ring, and Resop held down the pen for us. Great times
Whatever happened to Phil Stockman?
I’d replace with him Beachy (if we dont have to include him in a deal) Other than the late last part of last season all we have gotten from Lowe is an average #5 starter. I’d much rather get the same production from someone being paid like a #5 starter and spend the money on the OF and bullpen/
Gotta agree with you Mac on your Bama synopsis – especially on the offensive line. I still think the defense did about as well as could be expected. One other issue was that Dontae Hightower lost a step from 2008 and wasn’t the force we needed.
Hudson is about as reliable as a pitcher can be, really, but I am concerned about last year’s workload.
Hightower was a little better late in the year — I think he lost some weight (he must have been 280 around the Penn State game) but also he or the coaches figured out that he had to be a between-the-tackles player and couldn’t be chasing running backs to the sideline on pass plays anymore.
Lowe has to go even for nothing as it frees up 15 million a year. We don’t necessarily need Greinke. I expect Huddy/Tommy/JJ to form big three with Minor and Beachy in the 4th and 5th rotation spots respectively. We’re solid with Teheran and Delgado waiting in the wings. We could even keep KK as insurance as we’ll be paying the bulk of his contract if we trade him. I’d trade KK if someone pays most of his contract. Then sign Andruw for next to nothing and platoon him with McLoser.
I really think people are counting on a bit much from Jurrjens. I’m clearly in the minority on this here, but he’s a guy without great periferrals and a (recent) history of injury. I just don’t see how you can count on him for 200 good innings this year.
Trading Lowe and not getting another pitcher basically means we’re going to be relying on what should be an emergency plan (Beachy) to give us good innings every 5th day.
45 – You may be in the minority, but for what it’s worth I agree completely. I’m just not sold on Jurrjens. He’s probably fine as a #4 guy, but if you’re counting on him to provide 200 well-above average innings for you, make sure you have a contingency plan in place.
In truth, the best chance for the Braves to have a lot of success this year is for Lowe to maintain his late 2010 form and pitch like a bona-fide #2/3 starter. I expect Hanson to make the leap, and Jurrjens to have a better (though not great) year, but I also think Hudson will regress. If Lowe pitches well the Braves will be very solid; if he returns to suckitude then, in all likelihood, the rotation will post average overall numbers.
I tend to agree with those in the “trade Lowe and get rid of the $15 million a year obligation”, ASSUMING you can get some kind of #4-5 starter somewhere else to pick up the innings. Not sure that kind of pitcher is out there. Would they start Delgado or Teheran out in the majors this season?
On the other hand, Lowe’s slider was awfully nasty there at the end of the season.
How sweet would it be if the Braves could convince the Yanks to take Kawakami and all of his salary in any deal for Lowe? That salary would be a drop in the bucket for them. Alas, Lowe probably isn’t good enough to warrant that kind of deal.
@45, 46 I’m with you both.
@45, 46, 48, I’m not sure why you’d be so down on JJ. He had a good and great year previous to this one, with the same peripherals, other than a spike in his H/9 and HR/9, and he was pretty clearly pitching hurt at times. Zips likes him as the third best starter on the staff, FWIW, and I could see him doing better, personally, assuming his health holds up, just from natural development.
/and he’s maintained a decent K/BB ratio as well. Which peripherals, other than the spike noted above, do you find poor or troubling?
One thing to note: Given the nutso contracts being handed out like candy this offseason, it’s pretty clear that the cost of free agents has gone up. With that in mind, Lowe’s contract looks a little better. Remember, Jayson Werth (!) got 7 years, $126 million.
I doubt the Braves will trade Lowe unless they are certain they can find someone to replace him other than Beachy. It’s highly unlikely that trading Lowe will happen. But it’s fun to think what the Braves may do if they are able to dump Lowe’s contract.
after experimenting with other braves blogs, i realize how great this place is. thanks mac.
ryan, just stay away from DOB’s place. Its awful. I look for his twitter updates, but nothing more.
The Rangers’ second-ranked BA prospect is a SS at AA this year, Jurickson Profar. Let’s trade Lowe for him and then do Profar, Lipka, Delgado for Greinke. /wishcasting
The question isn’t so much Derek Lowe as it is if the 15 MM that is Lowe’s contract can be allocated in a manner that is more beneficial to the team than it currently is.
A look at the free agent markets suggests no, but when you consider that the Braves could take on (relatively) significant salary, you might be able to talk yourself into the trade market. I know others have spent more time with with prospect valuation; I just question whether the difference between Derek Lowe and Zach Greinke is worth what it would cost to get Zach.
49 — His peripherals even during his 08-09 seasons were pretty average just like last year. He was pretty much the same guy in 2010, just not nearly as lucky then he got hurt. I think going forward he’s an average to above average starter who can eat innings dependably assuming he stays healthy, and that’s not a bad thing at all.
Stu, scout.com is saying that Vandy is interviewing Jim McElwain tomorrow. You hearing the same?
RIP Bob Feller, who once struck out Rogers Hornsby (who debuted 95 years ago).
I saw Bob Feller throw out the first pitch at an Indians game
49 – braves14 basically said it at 56. It’s not so much that I’m dismissing his “great” year because of a more recent “bad” one. It’s that I see both years as possible outcomes for an average-to-good pitcher. Indeed, Jurrjens is a valuable piece, and considering his contract he’s even a bargain. I don’t dispute it. All I really dispute is the belief among many Braves fans (a few here, but mostly elsewhere) that he’s great, or even very good. Hopefully he’ll prove me wrong this upcoming season–he was injured last year, after all, and perhaps that explains his increased flyball tendencies–but I imagine he’ll post a 3.7 ERA, 4.0 FIP. Which is certainly useful, but not great.
I like the way Mac has crafted this discussion because it aptly illustrates that losing a pitcher such as Scott Diamond (who I think is better than Todd Redmond) can matter.
That said, I doubt that the Yanks want Lowe and I don’t see the Braves trading him–but they should go into any such conversation with an open mind. Lowe finished the season strong, which is why this discussion is even plausible and so trading him now, might be selling high….
The Phillies have broken the bank to win right now while their aging roster still has legs, so let them. It’s highly unlikely, and therefore counter-productive, to concoct elaborate scenarios wherein we trade a win-now asset (Lowe, under ordinary circumstances a perfect #4 starter for a contender) and still manage to improve our chances in 2011. The debate makes clear that to do so requires too much low-probability cooperation by other parties.
It’s interesting to see more and more people associating the words “mechanically suspect” with Tommy Hanson.
I recall a former MLB pitching coach say last summer that Hanson’s straight down fastball delivery (as opposed to a cross-the-body throwing motion) made Hanson the prohibitive favorite in the “most likely to suffer a catestrophic career-ending shoulder injury” sweepstakes.
Bob Feller died. Here is a great obit from the NYT:
57—Yeah. I’d be surprised if it leads anywhere, though.
I think he’d accept if offered
Don’t forget the Dark Time that was the late 2008 season, after Hudson got hurt, when the rotation was basically Jurrjens, Jorge Campillo, and anybody who showed up at the ballpark that day and had two arms.
I’m not convinced that Jason Shiell had two arms.
Then again, the 2010 Braves — the NL Wild Card-winning 2010 Braves! — allowed Chris Resop to make a start for them, so it just goes to show: you can never, ever have too much pitching.
Actually, Shiell pitched in 2006. It looks like most of the 2008 emergency starts went to Jeff Bennett, Klinger Parr, and the unholy Charlie Morton.
I think Chris Resop made one horrific relief appearance in a lost cause game before he was banished (not a start).
Right you are… I guess I just remembered that he was starting in Japan and in the minors, and signed as a starter, and my traumatized brain connected the dots.
Joe Posnaski’s column about Bob Feller is terrific.
65—I dunno about that, but I don’t expect him to be offered. Happily, I’m able to report that I care less with each passing day.
If the Braves do make another trade with the Yankees involving Lowe, I hope they get back somebody better for the major league team than Melky this time.
ESPN, why in the world would the Braves haven interest in Adrien Beltre? You don’t make sense…
maybe Chipper told them something about his knee
#73
Brett Gardner for Lowe + 5 million bucks would make me the happiest person in the world. We bring up Delgado and let Teheran dominate AAA and promote him in July. KK would be the spot-starter until we promote Teheran. We could then trade KK to a contender who needs an arm (I’m betting it would be the Angels). Our rotation would be:
Hudson
Hanson
JJ
Minor
Delgado
And if we REALLY wanted to be serious, we could dangle Hanson out there for a serious bat (Justin Upton?) and the rotation would still be:
Hudson
JJ
Minor
Teheran
Delgado
with a lineup of
1. Gardner – CF
2. Prado – 3B
3. Heyward – RF
4. Uggla – 2B
5. McCann- C
6. Upton – LF
7. Freeman – 1B
8. Gonzalez – SS
but it’s all a pipe dream.
Stu, I thought Vandy hired James Franklin yesterday. What happened there?
77—Still negotiating, apparently. Sounds like his agent thinks he deserves the kind of money that was being floated for Malzahn. VU disagrees.
Until the school releases official word, don’t believe that anyone’s been signed.
chris, you are living a pipe dream.
I am not ready to bring up one of the young studs to the rotation jsut yet.
Chris, neither Delgado or Teheran are ready for the majors. Their arms couldnt hold up for 200IP. I view Hanson as more valuable than Justin Upton, I may be in the minority. His contract isnt that enticing. We’ll have a lot more trade possibilities next year if Teheran/Delgado/and Medlen all can be counted on for 2012.
@74
When/Where did ESPN say anything about the Braves being interested in Beltre?
It’s in a “Rumors” bit (Insider-only) that I saw. “The Braves may not have other options if Chipper Jones isn’t ready to start the season.” Or something like that. What, exactly, the Braves would do when Chipper was ready, or why Martin Prado isn’t an option, weren’t covered.
I feel like ESPN and other sports outlets didn’t get the memo that the Braves have been owned by corporate entity for the last decade. They always seem to throw our name in the hat for big time free agent sweepstakes.
btw, UConn was sold 17,000 tickets for the Fiesta Bowl. Right now they have sold 4,000. The cheapest ticket is $111 and they go up to $268 for club level.
UConn also has a hotel obligation — a total of 550 rooms at three different hotels ranging in price from $125-225 a night, not including tax, with blocks reserved for either three or seven nights.
Their AD is begging people to buy tickets. Right now they have $2.5mil in unsold tickets. Good luck with that.
http://www.sportsbybrooks.com/uconn-begs-fans-to-buy-tix-facing-huge-loss-29342
Meet the two newest Yankee minor leaguers: Buddy Carlyle and Mark Prior.
What? Shilling out four digits to go see your team get slaughtered in a bowl it doesn’t belong in in the first place isn’t appealing? I don’t buy it csg.
Mets 1B Ike Davis is taking calls on WFAN right now & someone asked him his toughest pitchers to face.
1. Roy Halladay: “Every pitch looks the same coming out of his hand. I’ve done OK against him, but he’s the best there is.”
2. Ubaldo Jimenez. “He’s just got the most electric stuff, especially earlier in the year.”
3. Tommy Hanson. “That guy’s just got my number. Statistically, I’ve probably done the worst against him.”
Olney is reporting the Nats have traded Willingham to the A’s.
Wonder what they got for him?
Wow. Much as I like Uggla’s power, Willingham would have been a better long term move.
/well maybe. Now that I think about it, I am not so sure.
Beane has acquired DeJesus and Willingham this winter. See Frank, it’s really not that difficult to find competent outfielders.
Just looking at Willigham’s stats. The past three seasons, 133 is his highest number of games played. Didn’t realize he had been out that much.
I’m excited about Uggla. I know there will be growing pains with Freeman, but I’m also excited to finally have someone who isn’t a stiff manning 1B as well. Should grow into a nice right side of the infield.
Re Willingham. If true, Wow. and Why? for whom/how much?
#90 – I agree with your first statement. Willingham is an outfielder and I think he would be cheaper. He is 31, a year older than Uggla and Prado could have stayed at 2b.
However, to your second point, he is coming off of an injury whereas Uggla is not and Prado can play 3rd when Chipper doesn’t play.
Never mind me, just talking to myself. I wanted us to make a play for Willingham.
Well remember at one point the asking price for Willingham was ridiculous. Let’s not criticize Wren for not trying until we find out what they got for him.
I like what Beane has done. That team could very well win what’s looking to be a three team race in the AL West. The Rangers will feel deflated having lost Lee and the Angels are looking to be more or less the same team as last year. Turning an 09 Braves-esque outfield into a strength in the course of a single offseason is pretty impressive. They still have pretty big holes offensively at 3B and SS, but they’ve made some pretty big strides.
Olney is reporting the Nats have traded Willingham to the A’s.
Jason Werth will be delighted to hear that.
Cafardo of the Boston Globe is reporting a 5 year 60 MM extension for Uggla. I like it.
I don’t. I’m assuming the “extension” includes this coming season — if it doesn’t, I really really don’t like it.
Maybe we can take the KK, McLouth, Chipper Jones (fingers crossed) windfall next offseason and go out and sign Willingham to a reasonable (3 or 4 year) deal, a season in Oakland could very well suppress his value.
Correction to 97
I like it ONLY if Chipper Jones retires during or after the 2011 campaign. If we’re stuck with Chipper in 2012, we’re screwed.
Reports are that the Braves and Uggla are closing in on a 5/60-61 million dollar deal.
@97 I might take that as a sign Chipper’s rehab isn’t going well.
It does include the coming season, reportedly. He could have gotten 6 years 90Million from the Nats if he had hit free agency.
@101
How could shooting at animals with Adam LaRoche not be beneficial to Chip’s knee?
Teheran tops Baseball America’s Braves Top 10 prospects | Atlanta Braves.
Linking because Carroll quotes the Teheran scouting report. Oddly, when I saw him he was throwing a lot of pitches in the high eighties/low nineties, suggesting a slider or a split-finger fastball. Or just a slow gun, I guess.
I’m not sure about the wisdom of a 5/60 commitment to a guy with a sum total of two elite offensive seasons. He’s durable, and has pop – but he could just as easily go Carlos Baerga as Jeff Kent
IMHO, we’re in a “sell high” position with Lowe.
Ok, it’s not that high.
Would be great to find what Wren could do with that money.
@105
Perhaps he has only two “elite” offensive seasons, but his other three seasons have been pretty comparable to the elite ones, he’s been remarkably consistent so far. His lowest OPS for a single season is 805, it’s not like he’s been all over the board here.
I didn’t say he was bad – I just don’t know if he’s 12m/yr for 5 years worth of good.
Neither Peanut nor the AJC has yet reported anything on Uggla.
When Jayson Werth is getting 7/126, this seems like nothing. 30HR RH bats dont get on our rosters that often. Uggla, Heyward, Bmac are a nice power core.
Peanut now has a couple of tweets:
“There’s some reason to believe Uggla is now willing to accept #Braves previous offer. But nothing official yet.”
“Uggla traveled to Atlanta to hit w/ Larry Parrish today. But the extension wasn’t discussed before he began traveling back to Nashville.”
If you let Werth’s contract dictate what you are going to pay people going forward, we may as well move back to AAA. The Nationals decisions are apparently made by an alternating pair of drunkards.
Compare it to Adam Dunn and Crawford then.
Dunn’s current contract or the one he had to sign two years ago? I mean I am positive things could never go back to that point, but I thought I’d make sure.
Wow, all that it took for the A’s to get WIllinham was a minor league reliever with a career minor league WHIP of 1.579(!!!!!) and a 25 year old CF with pretty good number, he’s not a great prospect though, what I don’t like about him is that he’s been old at every level he’s played at.
@112 If you’re going to ignore the market altogether when anticipating the market of next year then you may as well live on mars.
The fact that teams have handed out bad contracts is no reason to do so yourself. Keeping up with the Joneses is a poor idea for a franchise with a budget.
You have to pay for power. I suppose ideally you’d pay for power and maybe some defense or something supplementary, but given what the Braves have run out as an excuse for power lately I’m not going to complain too much.
At least he (theoretically maybe) plays 2B.
I didn’t like the idea of an Uggla extension, but at 5/60, as long as the 5 includes this year, I like it. That’s a really good price.
I was talking about the 4/56 deal Dunn just received.
Werth would be making 50% more per year than Uggla. That’s hardly keeping up with the Joneses.
Do we know if Uggla can play 3rd? Considering Chipper’s got maybe a year or two left at best, I can see a potential deal playing out a lot better if Prado shifts back to 2nd and Uggla can be only moderately below average at 3rd.
12.5 MM at 3B is fair if he keeps his hitting up.
I don’t see this as keeping up with the Joneses, it seems to fit into the Braves game plan. Trading for borderline elite talents who are resignable for BELOW market value, because they want to play in Atlanta. In fact the acquisition of Uggla and the extension is pretty much the polar opposite approach to what the Nationals did with Werth. Uggla makes sense for this team going forward, this deal isn’t meant to simply make a splash, he’s a right handed bopper to put between our great lefthanded bats who we know are going to be around for the next few seasons. Uggla would have commanded 4-48 or 5-60 in the 2003 free agent market, let alone the 2011 one. I refuse to look at this deal as simply the Braves throwing good money after bad for PR reasons or whatever reason you’re suggesting..is the 12.5 Million probably too much for his age 35 season? Probably, but the deal seems pretty shrewd otherwise.
DOB’s got something up on the probably Uggla extension… quoting the Boston Globe figure of 5/60.
@122 Ethan, if I recall Prado is supposed to be better defensively at 3B… so if he holds up in LF next year, we can sign him to an extension and have him for 3B when Chipper hangs em up.
Apparently, James Franklin will be the next VU football coach. Thank God that process is over.
Rany Jazayerli had a blog post the other day on the most recent former Braves/current Royals, Frenchy & the Melk-dud. I thought it was interesting to see his take (which I overall agree with), but was wondering who could put the funniest spin on this quote – “It would be one thing if the Royals signed Cabrera with the intent of having him eat into Alex Gordon’s playing time” – from the article…
http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2010/12/francoeur-comes-home.html
I wish David Wright wasn’t under control by the Mets for so long. Not only do I believe he’d flourish here, but I also believe he’d love to play here, so much so that he’d accept a team friendly contract. He makes 14, 15 and 16(team option) the next three seasons. Sigh, if only.
Trading for borderline elite talents who are resignable for BELOW market value, because they want to play in Atlanta.
I am unconvinced that either of these statements is true. Uggla is a nice player. So far he’s had two “12M seasons” out of five. Forgive my skepticism , but if the next 5 are like the last 5, in his purported prime, you really aren’t going to like paying 60m for it.
Uggla would have commanded 4-48 or 5-60 in the 2003 free agent market, let alone the 2011 one
And would have commanded nothing like it in 2008. The market is volatile, not linear.
I refuse to look at this deal as simply the Braves throwing good money after bad for PR reasons or whatever reason you’re suggesting,
You can look at it any way you like. I am suggesting that 12M a year is a real gamble for a franchise that will suffer severe consequences if it doesn’t pan out. The team will have 40M committed to 3 players next year if this goes through. I would have rather seen them bet more on a better pony, or not at all. To me, Uggla was the perfect one year rental that will pay off on the field and in draft picks at year’s end or prospects if the team is struggling at the deadline next year.
I like the deal. However, if Chipper doesn’t retire after this next season or if Lowe isn’t traded, our 2012 payroll could be horrifying.
Just under half of our 2012 payroll (around 40 million) would be dedicated to Uggla, Chipper, and Derek “replacement level” Lowe.
*breaks cold sweat*
#127
If I hadn’t lived through the ’70s & ’80s Braves, I’d probably make more fun of the Royals.
That said (and I’m sure it’s been mentioned somewhere), but the recent Braves/Royals “relationship” seems like the opposite of the old Yanks/KC A’s connection.
Instead of siphoning KC’s talent (Maris, C. Boyer, Ralph Terry, Ryne Duren, etc.), like the Yanks, we find KC welcoming our unwanted leftovers.
I mean, they have both Jeffy and Melky now… What can you say? They got a delusional RF & an ever-expanding CF.
Come to think of it, the Royals could be weirdly fascinating in the suckitude department. I imagine I might pop in a time or two on MLB.TV next season, just to witness the freak show—and thank our lucky stars that they’re playing way, way beyond The Perimeter.
@127- I like Posnanski’s line that if someone is going to get the money, he’d rather have it be Jeff Francouer than David Glass
Holy shit! Tell me that Cliff Lee doesn’t look exactly like Ralph Fiennes in Red Dragon.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Dolarhyde
#132
True dat.
Even more than Francoeur’s salary, it might pain Mr. Glass to know that he has full medical & dental.
So far he’s had two “12M seasons” out of five. – Spike
I guess it depends on which site your using. Fangraphs has him at $14.8, $9.9, $20.4, $12.7, $20.4.
Gotta say – I like the reported Uggla deal. It sure looks like a below market price for an asset we have been lacking for a half decade.
I wouldn’t have minded the prospects either. But a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and apparently much more in this case.
It seems to me Uggla has been durable and consistent, and brings a particular talent that we’ve sorely lacked. He’s fairly unlikely to be playing at this level five years from now, but there’s every chance he could exceed the value of the contract a couple of times before then. If he plays like a $7 million player in Year 5 — well, that’s hardly a disaster.
Also, $40 million is on the low end of what most NL teams are paying their three most expensive players.
You’ll forgive me if I take those values as comparative, rather than actual. Were that really the case, why on earth would ol’ Dan sell himself for 12/yr? I mean even 16/year is a bargain that some other team would have offered, right?
/ZiPS projection for Uggla – 259/.346/.469 116. I take these with a huge grain of salt, but that’s pretty close to Dan’s career average. Doesn’t really scream 12M to me, but maybe I’m just cheap.
Also, $40 million is on the low end of what most NL teams are paying their three most expensive players.
But are they better players on aggregate than Chipper/Lowe/Uggla? It’s not the money, it’s what you get for it.
Right, and your most expensive players are least likely to bring a full return, just as a mathematical truism, and a reflection of the existing pay scale. Most veterans are overpaid, most youngsters are underpaid. But if that’s the wheel that’s spinning, that’s the game you have to play, right?
@138, that’s a good question. I have no idea why Uggla would sign for 5/60. Maybe he’s petrified of a career-ending injury or his production falling off a cliff.
I think 5/60 is pretty swell for Uggla’s production. Power doesn’t fade as quickly as BA or speed, and he’ll probably be popping 30 a year for the next 4-5 years.
I thought that when he declined Florida’s 4/48, there was no chance he’d sign for 5/60, so talks of an extension worried me. Honestly, I’d peg him at 5/70 or more. I actually think it would be strange for Uggla to be worth less than $60 mil over the next five years.
@135 – As you note, Fangraphs calculates that Uggla has been worth $78.2M over the first five years of his career.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3442&position=2B#value
Whether he can maintain that pace over the next five is anyone’s guess; however, if Wins Above Replacement are now going for $5M or so each, Uggla would only need to be worth 12 WAR over the next 5 years, or 2.4 per year. Uggla has been worth as low as 2.4 WAR in his career only once, and has averaged 3.8 WAR. I think he’s a good bet to provide $60M in production over the life of his contract (though I wish the 5th year was a team option, just in case his defense has deteriorated too far).
IF player salaries continue to rise, that $12 million will probably be fine five years from now, for a first baseman with average offense for the position. Of course, we’re hoping first base is blocked, so he’d have to play left field, which is more questionable.
Well, he could DH, since we know that the DH will become universal in 2014.
Are we overthinking this? Perhaps Uggla has found his happy spot and is quite happy to be paid $12 million per year to guarantee he’ll stay there awhile.
Any Braves fan that heard the interview between Chipper and Uggla (Dimino refereeing) would be convinced.
I’m delighted with the signing AND the extension. Especially with all the contract nonsense going on right now. I mean, I no longer think DLowe is drastically overpaid – that’s how much the market has moved.
If Chipper’s healthy, this could be a memorable year. Taking down the $hillies is gonna be sweet.
You can take or leave Fangraphs’ methodology for how much wins are “worth,” but I think you’re underrating a second baseman who can mash, spike. The number of guys who can play second base and hit like Uggla is extraordinarily scarce, and $12 million is no longer superstar money. It’s basically role player money.
I don’t like the deal if true, because I don’t trust Uggla to keep hitting and be playable at second base for five more years, but to this point in his career, he’s been awfully good.
As I said, I may well be cheap. but when it comes to mashers (and just about anything else), my theory is buy the best and only do the crying once. It’s a much better gamble, imho, to overpay ginuwine superstars. As I said, Uggla is a perfectly cromulent player as constituted, but there is only room for a couple of position players at that salary level on this club, and I’d rather save it for the Chippers of the world. But there is definitely more than one way of looking at this, so I’ll be happy to drop it.
I mean, they have both Jeffy and Melky now… What can you say?
And into the bargain, their hardcore fans love it!
When you say “Chippers of the world” I assume you mean Chipper in his prime, this is a fair argument. But Chipper took a hometown discount, actually so did Andruw around that time. Chipper agreed to an extension at 15MM a year in a market where he could have raked in something probably pretty close Jeter’s 180Million or A-Rod’s 250 Million. The thing is, getting a hitter like Chipper in his prime costs lots and lots of assets, extending them is even tougher. I guess I just don’t really know what kind of approach you think the braves should be taking here. What in the world is 12MM annually going to buy? Superstars migrate to a couple key clubs and they’re drawn to annual salaries much much higher than 12MM. You constantly detract from what the front office does, or what others suggest as a good plan of action, but it seems more and more like you just like to flex your muscles as the resident blog bully.
well, boys and girls, I turned 30 today. Its not as bad as I thought it might be.
I’m with spike. Don’t like the deal. Incidentally, Peter has a nice piece up about how comparable players have aged poorly through their age-31 to 35 seasons, and that, among other things, is one reason I think it’s too risky.
Oh, and happy birthday csg. You’re surprisingly lucid for the evening of your 30th birthday. Then again, I have found the first few months of my 30s to be rather calm, if not sobering.
Happy Birthday csg, here’s to hoping that your ages 31 through 35 years go better than those of comparable Braves Journal posters.
Congrats csg!
thanks….I honestly forgot about it being my birthday until I started reading some of the post about Uggla being old and fragile.
Yeah, I wish someone had offered me a 5-year deal at age 30, because I was already planning to mail it in.
I remember when I thought 30 was old.
Congrats, csg, but no sympathy from me!
I think we have found out by now that power hitter is harder to find than we realized. Once we have it, we better keep him. Otherwise, we would be in the same position again next offseason. 5/$60 including 2011 season is a fine deal. It’s not cheap, but I don’t think we are overpaying.
No body offered me 5/60 when I turned 30 either, Sansho. And now that I’m 40, I can’t even get Jamie Moyer-like contract offers. Damn I wish I was a soft-tossing, crafty™ lefty. [/end bitterness]
22 years old, suckas! 5/60 is gonna be chump change when I turn 30.
I agree with KC. What’s the alternative to extending Uggla ? Keeping him for one year and getting the draft picks ? As kc said, we’d be in the same position next winter, unless Chipper retires or Lowe is traded. I doubt a FA right handed power hitter can be had for 5/60 next winter. I’m not thrilled with the fifth year, but the money isn’t crazy.
Not that my opinion means much, but put me in the “I’m ok with the deal” camp. It’s a little risky, but I think it’s a risk worth taking.
Vandy is going to make their coaching announcement on Facebook.
@159
That’s about the time that the Werth deal ends…will that deal look like chump change too?
@162 Are you sure it’s not Twitter?
162—I only wish that were a joke. Instead, it’s just our football program that is.
csg,
Hope you’ve got all your affairs in order. We’ll miss you.
165 – Ouch. I feel for you. If it makes you feel any better (and it probably won’t), I went into a deep depression when Rich Brooks was announced as the new UK football coach a few years back. I lobbied long and hard for Norm Chow, the coordinator du jour at the time. It’s safe to say that things worked out really well and I had a heaping spoonful of crow. Hoping the same for Vandy.
Blog bully? Goodness.
Tim Kurkjian thinks the Braves are a bat short. His reason – remember how poorly the Braves swung the bats in the postseason last year?
Yeah Chipper and Prado had a big postseason. Im just glad Melky and Ankiel are going to be getting a ton of AB’s next year also.
Congratuations csg!
Congratustions to Bethany! (from an earlier thread)
I miss Bobby.
I;m quite comfortable with giving Uggla that kind of money and years. We’ll have him locked up for his prime, he COULD move positions (3b or 1b) if we needed him to, and his contract is moveable. All this for Mike Dunn and Omar Freakin Infante……The Bird Man is a genius!
csg,
I’m a day late, but happy 30th. I turned 32 this year so it wasn’t too long ago when I was sharing your pain. 30 really wasn’t that bad. All of my older buddies were pointing to my 30th birthday telling me, “You won’t be able to do that when you’re 30!”
Now, they’re saying 40. Hope you had a good one and keep on truckin’!
csg, folks my age call you a yungun. Happy Birthday.
for me:
30 – no prob
40 – no prob
50 – dang.
Yeah, I mean I have a friend who’s 33, parties several times a week, and just broke off his engagement and is shacking up with a 21 year old. There’s plenty of life left to live!
Happy 30th csg… I’m only 35, but 30 still seems like a REALLY long time ago.
I don’t LOVE the Uggla extension… but I don’t hate it either. He’ll probably be worth the money, and as long as there isn’t a no-trade clause we’ll be probably be able to move him if his defense drops off but his hitting doesn’t. I figure we’ll try and extend McCann next year so he’ll take over the Chipper money when he comes off the books, and Heyward and Hanson will take over Lowe’s contract money he comes off the books (and then take over Uggla’s when he comes off the books as their contracts rise). It’s not a total steal, but it is probably a good bet to be worth the money for us.
I kind of love the news on Renteria and the Giants. When they offered $1M and he found it a little insulting and said if that’s all he’s offered he’ll walk away. I really like that he’s willing to walk away and spend the time with his family because he has his money invested wisely. On the one hand I find it shocking to walk away from a million bucks (and maybe “insulting” is a bit harsh as the Giants hardly got their $18M worth out of him already… except in his WS MVP-ness), but I love it that somebody who was blessed with the obscene amount of money a ballplayer makes ($82M through his 20s and early 30s) wasn’t an idiot with it, and is thinking of using his resources to enjoy his kids while they’re young and enjoyable.
Happy birthday, CSG. With the modern improvements in medical technology, you’ll look back at this comment thread in a hundred years and wonder what all the fuss was about.
Enjoy the day!
166—To clarify, I’m happy about the actual hire, and I’ll be ecstatic if we land the top target at defensive coordinator. (Not sure how likely that second part is.) I’m just embarrassed by the Facebook announcement.
In other embarrassment news, I present the University of South Carolina.
So does this Vandy had to change their relationship status from “It’s complicated” to “In a relationship”?
178 – Smitty, good work.
Touche, indeed!
New post. First part of a serial if I get around to writing the rest of it.