Yeah, we can blame the umpires, but the umpires weren’t the guys who left all those runners on base.
Yeah, we can blame the umpires, but the umpires weren’t the guys who left all those runners on base.
Hinske played 10 games at 3b last year. Isn’t it supposed to be his top position? Why not him in there against the RHP with Prado shifting back to second?
I do like McLouth being back in the leadoff spot with Melky out of the lineup for Diaz. Also McCann and everyone just moving up a spot in the order is good too.
Lineups:
Bravos:
McLouth cf
Prado 3b
McCann c
Glaus 1b
Escobar ss
Heyward rf
Diaz lf
Infante 2b
Lowe p
Giants:
Rowand cf
Renteria ss
Sandoval 3b
Huff 1b
DeRosa lf
Bowker rf
Uribe 2b
Whiteside c
Wellemeyer p
Predictions for Lowe for the day?
5.1 IP, 6 Runs Allowed, 2 Earned, 5 BB, 108 Pitches, W.
Lowe’s boxscore: 5.0 6 3 3 3 3 ND
P. W. Hjort and Johnny, I think the main difference in our thinking is that I can’t see significant difference between Arb 4 and FA money because they are equally expensive in my opinion. However, it seems like the Braves have adopted my side of logic in their decision making. Since we can’t change anything on that now (unless Jason gets sent down later, which I doubt would happen), we will see how that works out.
While we keep asking ourselves who will be Chipper’s replacement (now it should be Edward Salcedo), Prado actually plays much better at third base defensively than second base.
I think we will win tonight simply because Lowe is pitching, not because he will pitch well!!!
KC,
I’m intrigued by the concept. It would be cool if someone did a comparison of 4th year arbitration rates for players versus the average yearly value of the contracts they signed after that year. And also, call me ignorant and stupid, but there is something that feels wholesome and correct about calling a player up not when it makes complete financial sense to, but when that player is ready for the big leagues. If we have three outfielders capable of making the impact that Jason is of making, the situation could be viewed differently. But I think that Jason, even in his first year, is capable of making the difference. I’m glad that they called him up, and will continue to be so even when he hits free agency.
6,
If you can find me a complete list of super-2 players I’ll do something with it. The only thing I could find is this from MLBTR, which starts at exactly the point where it becomes useless for answering this question (2007).
If Wellemeyer pitches a good game I will be surprised. He had a decent 2008, but 2009 was horrible. His other years have been closer to 2009 – he has a 4.74 lifetime ERA. My thought tonight is Braves 7, Giants 3. Lowe will pitch 7 strong innings and give up 2 runs or less – I hope.
@7 It would indeed by an interesting study, which I definitely don’t have time to do being a father of two. I am just remembering the arbitration figures in the past for impact players like Lincecum, Prince, Howard, and Papelbon, they are getting close to receiving market value even before they reach arb3, can you imagine what they would get if they have arb4?
In a way, you can actually argue arb4 can be MORE expensive than FA1 because you can spread a large sum of money over a longer period of time for a free agent contract while Arb4 is a one year contract which compares to the salaries of players with similar stats at that time.
However, I do realize the limitation of my above logic as I don’t have any numbers to back up my thinking.
Being an Astros fan is starting to become synonymous with being a Mets fan. Or am I late to that party?
Gotta love that .647 batting average of Prado’s…
(Edit) and to hate Glaus’ Francoeur act, grounding into a DP on the first pitch against a struggling pitcher.
I’d rather be anything than an Astros fan.
Ah, the human rally-ender.
PW @ 7,
Honestly, you are the expert on this sort of stuff, but I’ll try my best. 5 years of service time makes a Super Two, correct? That would mean that if a player promoted early in 2002-
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/yearly/debut.php?y=2002&l=NL&s=D
(List is sorted by debut)
is arbitration eligible with five years of service time in 2007, then they would have to have been a super two, correct?-
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2000/04/2006-07-arbitration-eligibles.html
List A will show you player debuts, and list B will show arbitration contract information with service time. Wouldn’t be a whole lot of data, but it would be enough for interesting study, I think. If you can do this, it would be way cool. Thanks!
A Super Two is someone in his third year of ML service time — less than three, but more than two, and in the top something percent of people in that year.
You are missing part of the larger point, KC – at Arb 4, if we let him walk we get picks. And if we offer arb and accept, he has to stay if we want him. This has value, quantifiable monetary value.
Phillies win.
Houston is as bad at baseball as their city is fat.
Chip is such a douche.
Stop peaking at the catcher, Edgar.
Mac @ 15,
Yeah, I’m really not good at this stuff at all. But I’m sure it would make for a good study for someone over at Fangraphs or BTBS who has the know-how to get such information and work with it.
Spike, how is the same not true if his last year is Arb 3?
If Huff botches one, the Giants will bad defense for the cycle.
14,
The sample we want is guys that a) have more than five but less than six years of service time and b) were arbitration eligible for the fourth time during that season. Between guys that get non tendered before they reach free agency, guys that sign extensions, and guys that get 1 year deals during their first year of free agency (you want to remove this group from the sample), it’s going to take a lot of years of data to get anything close to as big a sample as we’d like.
I can get the salary data, just need a complete list of every player that’s ever qualified for Super 2 status from 1974-2006. I’ll email the BtB list and see if anyone has anything.
At least the pitcher got cleared.
If the Braves get rained out tomorrow, do they skip KK?
Glaus sucks.
Not as much as Chip.
It’s close.
need a DP…either way Glaus shouldve caught that liner
Balkin Bob must have dinner reservations again tonight.
does Lowe have only one pitch now? seems like everything he’s throwing is 87-89 on the outside corner and moving back to the middle
Lowe got so bailed out on those k’s by the ump
Davidson has a large strike zone tonight. McLouth just got punched out on an inside pitch.
I actually like the large strike zone, as long as it’s consistent.
P.W. @ 23,
Understandably so.
To make a guide on all the arbitration-eligible players in the world… that was my dream! But I can’t do it!
(+2000 internet dollars to whoever can guess the reference without the aid of Google.)
JCM
it does still have value. That doesn’t alter the fact that Arb 4 is worth something.
Ok, we can’t get shut out by Todd Wellemeyer.
And I don’t think avg value would tell you much. You need comparable values.
IS anyone else listening to these SF announcers? These guys are complete blowhards. They are complaining about the umps like they are getting shafted, apparently they didn’t watch the game yesterday.
Lowe is going to a lot of deep counts.
Loved that at-bat by Heyward. Jonathan Sanchez called him a “free swinger” after that game yesterday. Hopefully he’s made that adjustment– he’s too smart to be waving at pitches in the dirt like he was doing.
It’s not humanly possible to look worse than Diaz at the plate when he’s swinging out of his shoes like a clod
Really? Again?
Heywards AB – very encouraging. Diaz then resembled an old lady trying to swat a bee with a broom.
This sucks.
Yeah, Sanchez, you keep saying that. This is all part of the master plan. (I hope.)
Inning ruined by Diaz
@46
You won’t see that written too often this year.
Swings like that are why Diaz is riding the pine, you simply can not swing at the pitches he does and be a consistent reliable offensive player
So I’m not the only one who watches the Braves alone on a Saturday night? This is encouraging.
Interesting use of the word “encouraging” there, Kyle, both from the Braves’ play standpoint and our social life standpoint.
I agree, except he is a consistent reliable offensive player. Other than that, you’re spot on.
I’ve been so busy and my cable so sucks that this is the first game I’m watching this year. I ended my night early so I can watch Derek freaking Lowe. Fortunately I get tomorrow’s game too, so I’ll at least see a good pitcher.
I’m totally not alone, I’ve got my computer science notes to keep me company here…
I hate Lowe.
I’ve got my monthly budget to keep me company.
Derek Lowe. I would so much rather have him than Javier Vazquez. I’ll never get over that.
When Lowe pitches behind it’s excruciating to watch.
Shouldn’t the guy on third have broke for home?
Lowe can’t walk guys and expect success. He’s lucky to have only given up 1 run.
Lowe’s high wire act would have ended long ago against a less inept offensive team than the Giants. Lowe doesn’t have squat and is benefitting from a bad offense and a generous umpire.
Imagine how bad this would be if McCann hadn’t thrown out two runners on the basepaths.
Derek Lowe: He makes more money than anyone else in a Braves uniform.
Lowe has thrown 74 pitches through four innings. Despite the generous strike zone he has the same number of walks as strikeouts (four, though one was intentional) and nearly as many balls (35) as strikes (39).
I have it on mute. Did Chip say “belted”?
Prado for MVP.
Mac, on the Glaus AB: “Belted, left field.”
It was caught in left center, by the center fielder.
Probably.
Said it that time. Shut up, Chip.
Glaus got under it.
Hah, “belted” to the warning track.
well, at least he got it out of the infield
A better swing for Troy, with the same depressing result.
Dang…Mclouth and Glaus tattooed those balls. I guess you can’t hit one outta that place in center unless you’re roided up.
We’re getting shut out by Todd F. Wellemeyer.
The only reliable thing your getting with Diaz is him always giving 110 percent and swinging with his eyes closed
Lowe has walked 7 and stuck out 6 in 10 innings so far on the year.
To be fair, Glaus’ ball probably would have been a homer in any other park (but Petco) in the league.
Shut up about Lowe winning 15 games Chip and Joe.
Joe just referred to Derek’s “supposedly bad year” while referring to his W/L record.
Needless to say, when your offense scores 16 runs, you know how to WIN.
I think he was listed toward the top, probably 1 or 2, in 2009 run support in the James Handbook. It was over 6 runs per game of run support. That’s how you get 15 wins with a 4.67 ERA.
He was third, 6.2 runs a game.
Does anyone else notice Renteria peaking out of the corner of his eye back at the catcher? That deserves a beaning.
Seriously, is Chip blind in one eye or something? The fans realized that was an out before he did.
Giants announcer : “And Renteria puts a charge into this ONE!!!!!!!!!!!!! and… it’s caught in center.” Not even close to the warning track.
Apparently these guys have no idea how to judge the flight of a ball of a guys bat.
Heyward!
HEYWARD!
Watching Lowe pitch and hearing Chip announce is a difficult combination to endure. I think i’ll go to bed before I watch Catfish Wellmeyer shut us out.
Chip couldn’t tell that one was going out.
Now, that one wasn’t belted, apparently.
JASON!!
I was about to say something snarky about Yunel’s hair, but instead, I’ll just enjoy Heyward’s homer. Shouldn’t Joe be going nuts about it?
J-HEY!
None of the announcers can tell… it’s not just Chip
As bad as Chip may be, I’d take 1000 games announced by Chip than one game announced by Joe Morgan. Joe is by far the worst baseball announcer in the modern era.
I guess we have to endure one more inning of Lowe, assuming he makes it through.
Okay, remind me why it would be wrong to get a high-powered rifle and take out Lowe next time he spazzes out and won’t throw a strike.
Because leaving Lowe’s bleeding, twitching form on the mound will be no more fun for the fans than his pitching?
But they’d only have to see that once.
This is disgusting.
9 walks in 11 innings. Awful.
Did that ealk make any sense to anyone?
Ealk the lefty to pitch to the righty, yeah. Though I’d have relieved the bastard by now.
10 walks.
please go get him
Bobby, why are you doing this to us?
111 pitches, too.
Thank you, Yunel.
As bad as Chip may be, I’d take 1000 games announced by Chip than one game announced by Joe Morgan. Joe is by far the worst baseball announcer in the modern era.
Nope. I’d take Morgan over Chip Caray.
Don’t slide in to first, you idiot.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is a “quality start.”
Eli Whiteside has gotta be the only guy who wants to forget this game more than Lowe. As for Lowe’s 112 pitches of frustration, it was a quality start that we will never speak of again.
104 — It’s why he makes the big bucks.
The defense bails Lowe out, and Joe says that he “did his best pitching” in the inning.
hahaha Joe Morgan??? we are talking about “Dr.” Joe Morgan right? This is the same guy that thought Pesky’s pole was 280 feet away. Joe Morgan is the least intelligent announcer going
I’m glad Damian Moss doesn’t pitch for the Braves anymore. Well, only metaphorically.
Yea but Moss had some sweet mutton chops
Wellemeyer is working slower than Steve Trachsel.
Take the out!
Stupid Giants.
Bunting with Prado will just take the bat out of McCann’s hands.
“Hey, let’s bunt with the guy hitting .632, knowing they’ll just walk McCann to pitch to Captain Out!”
Not sure about the Prado bunt, though I get the thinking. Problem is, they walk McCann so Glaus can hit into another double play. Sigh.
Prado bunting with 2 on and 0 out? this team is the epitome of desperate
Joe Morgan is the least intelligent announcer going
Turn on the volume on the Braves game.
Wow, genius observation by Joe. Martin Prado is a “baseball player.”
Any chance that this ealk won’t work for the Giants?
I’ll take it!
Good job by Glaus of driving in that run without an AB
Glaus pulls a Homer, but I’ll take the run anyway.
Some wild pitching tonight.
Wow, genius observation by Joe. Martin Prado is a “baseball player.â€
Yeah, what does that even mean? Prado and Omar Infante are “ball players” and apparently Chipper Jones and Brian McCann are not, according to Joe Simpson.
Why are the, apparently, non-ball players seemingly a better class of players?
“He might have broken his bat.”
Uh…
What game is Chip Caray watching?
Did Chip Caray say “he might have broken his bat”?
Apparently, being a ball player is impossible once you reach a certain talent level.
mlbtv crapped out. Did Glaus take one for the team?
@129 – Caught the jersey.
Well, league, there was your adjustment period. Did you enjoy it?
That’s a free swinger right there.
Chip gets a C- and Joe Morgan get’s an F in the announcing category
Is Lowe eligible for the win now?
Nice comeback game for Heyward.
Let’s hold onto this one, fellas…
I love it. This stream is pitch-modulating Chip and Joe’s voices. They occasionally sound 50% tougher.
134 — Yes.
Yes, Kyle, he is. Any other questions about the uselessness of the Win stat?
Least surprising thing I’ve heard all night– “And here’s Pete Moylan, and this is already his fourth appearance.” He might pitch in 120 games this year.
@ 138 – Since he only pitched in the bottom of the inning I wasn’t sure.
As Eastwood said, “Deserves got nothing to do with it.”
mlbtv refuses to work now. It’s only a few games into the season and it’s already really getting on my nerves. Is this pretty normal or am I just lucky?
He was the pitcher when the Braves broke the tie. He was pinch-hit for in the inning, but Moylan had not come in yet.
@141
The MLB extra innings package is free right now, so the game is on if that helps
141 — one of these days… (I don’t have cable). Thanks, though.
@141 – The first week of the season is usually pretty glitchy.
I guess the umpire is trying to make up for yesterday on that one.
Is Eli Whiteside the worst player in baseball? Seriously, he’s been a disaster all night. Who can’t find a backup catcher who can at least play defense?
Well, the Braves usually couldn’t between the Eddie Perez and Dave Ross eras. Remember Todd Pratt? (Sorry for reminding you.)
McLouth always has a weird expression on his face.
Corky the hamster?
Yeah, him too.
Prado went 2-4 and will see his BA drop after tonight’s game.
I honestly think he’s worse defensively than those guys.
Just a bit outside.
I think every Giant in the infield has committed an error or a Prado tonight.
The Giants might have a worse defense than us.
Our infield defense has been pretty awesome tonight, actually… I can’t imagine what Lincecum and Cain would do with a good defense behind them.
Yeah, I suppose that’s the only way Lowe gave up 1 run.
I really wish McCann would put his right arm behind his back.
is there any site that keeps up with each pitch from Lowe in the game. Ive watched most of this game. I can only remember two pitches that he threw less than 86mph and zero over 89. Seems like there is nothing offspeed. A starter cant survive with no command and everything being the same speed. Its like all he throws is a two seam fastball that sometimes sinks
159 — I’m with you.
160: Your estimation of Lowe’s pitches seems right to me too, but he was surprisingly effective (minus the walks, of course)– when he threw the ball over the plate, he got swings and misses and ground balls right at infielders. Weird.
What are the odds that Wagner pitches the 9th, regardless of whether the Braves score in the top half? 1-2? 2-5?
Pretty low since they just showed him hanging out on the bench.
Would be a good time to use Chavez methinks.
165- Good call. Here’s hopin’.
Chip says Wagner is up, but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything.
whee!
Eric Hinske makes his case to play ahead of Glaus.
Did Chip just say “comfortly?”
Um, Jo-Jo didn’t pitch yesterday, genius.
Chip Caray compared Eric Hinske to Babe Ruth and Matt Stairs in the same sentence.
I kinda hope the game against Lincecum gets rained out.
defensive and offensively – this giants team is far from impressive
Good God, the incompetence at SportsSouth goes all the way to the bottom.
You’re right Mac, Whiteside is really bad.
Man, the Giants look like the Bad News Bears tonight. Whiteside’s terrible, but he’s not getting any help from these pitchers. These guys are slinging the ball all over the place.
But, but, but…I WANTED to hear it in McCann’s own words.
With Uribe, Whiteside, and the Giants’ bench up next, this is a perfect example of Reitsma room.
How can you blame Whiteside? some of these pitches are hitting short of the plate. If he sets up inside they are throwing it three feet outside. I kinda feel bad for this kid, I cant recall having to watch a catcher work so hard
165, your wish is granted.
@160
http://www.brooksbaseball.net
The home of pitchFX. Great site. Keeps a live log of all pitches thrown by every pitcher in every game, with a wide variety of data sets. You can pull data from this site to graph the flight paths of any pitch as well.
According to them, Lowe threw 5 sliders that averaged 80.22 mph, and 2 change-ups that averaged 82.9 mph. Though I would be of the opinion that the two “change-ups” were actually hanging sliders, as it is a given that their computer system will categorize bad pitches wrongly on occassion.
You know how some pitchers, their radar gun reading is deceptive because they make it hard to see the ball? I think Chavez is the opposite. He sits at the top of his motion and lets everyone see what’s coming.
C’mon Chavez. Give Wagner the day off.
Maybe Chavez will yet get it done….
The worst thing about this is that it will reinforce Bobby overworking his best relievers.
seriously? Why is Wagner warming up?
Braves win!
alright. Braves win. Well done.
douglass, thanks
so out of Lowe’s 112 pitches, he threw 7 total pitches less than 86mph and 105 pitches between the range of 86-89mph
Chip Caray: “And a couple of hits from Jason Hey-lerd…”
I’ve had five-run wins that I’ve enjoyed more, but I’ll take it.
Now let’s pray for rain to avoid Lincecum.
Maybe someone’s already posted about this, but I’m a little tipsy so bear with me…
…what’d you guys think about Chip’s comparison of Hinske to Babe Ruth?
😆
what’d you guys think about Chip’s comparison of Hinske to Babe Ruth?
See: #171 in this thread.
“Line drive base hit…caught!”
HA, glad I missed that comparison
Recapped.