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Random thought game thread: Sept. 22, Braves at Phillies
September 22, 2008
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- Christian Roberts on Is the Sky Falling? Braves Max Fried goes Down
- JonathanF on The Bar, April 1st
- snowshine on The Bar, April 1st
- Cade Harrington on The Bar, April 1st
- MikeM on The Bar, April 1st
what they do!
Joe Morgan was caught with Jon Miller’s ____ in his _____ and Steve Phillips’ ____ in his ___.
Seems like another impending joy-or-despair post-game reality. Let’s see if we can keep that rollercoaster clinking back to the top.
BTW, The O’Jays rule.
I’m working tonight, so I’ll be following online. No Morgan for me!
It’s Joe for me on espn360. But it’s not just Joe… Miller and Phillips push it even further over the top. Good times.
Over/under on number of times Joe refers to the Braves as “Chipper and the guys” because he doesn’t know the name of anyone else on the team? Set at 5?
Love that song – Saw Elvis Costello do an amazing version in 1980.
Say where’s stupup? I’ve been waiting for him to back up his post for a while now.
Tonight, I find out how much lag there is between the iPhone MLB app audio feed and the ESPN television feed.
Cody Johnson hit his 31st and 32nd HR’s last night
Game importance. This probably only matters to me, but I thought I’d share.
I have that pure pythagorean monte carlo, and I modified it to “stick” certain results. So I ran the season 200,000 times each with every possible result of every single game. If you define the importance of a game as the difference between the chance of making the playoffs when you win and the chance of making the playoffs when you lose, here’s the importance.
The game tonight. (Difference of 7.3%)
Each of the PHI @ ATL (7.1%)
Each of the STL and FLA away series (6.6%)
The FLA home series (6.4%)
Both Mets series and the Nats away series (6.2%)
HOU and CIN series (6.1%)
Nats home series (6.0%)
The Rocks home series (except STL?) (4.2%)
Rocks at SDG and ARI (4.1%)
STL at COL (3.9%)
COL @ LA (3.8%)
COL @ SFN (2.6%)
The rest of the Giants games (1.1-1.5%)
The rest of the Phillies games (0.6-1.0%)
The rest of the Cubs games (0.3-0.4%)
Ignoring the result of intervening games (like the Rocks), tonight’s game leaves our chances at 18.8% if we win and 11.5% if we lose.
from previous thread:
“#21 – there’s a winning post.
The idea that Bobby should have magically given Diaz at bats in place of Francoeur at the beginning of the year is ridiculous. Diaz was given an everyday job last season and was sub-Francoeur horrible before getting hurt.
And the organization didn’t decide to pay Francoeur’s multimillion dollar arbitration bill to have him backup a guy who had a OPS+ of 50 last year.”
robert, no one…NO ONE said diaz should have had the job in right field at the beginning of the season. read the damn post. it says, imagine what he could have done with those bats that were given to francoeur. you’re such a bobby homer that you try to make up arguments to defend him.
“The fact that Jeff Francoeur was not qualified to start every day is not an argument that Matt Diaz is qualified to start every day. The one has nothing to do with the other. That the Braves wasted three years on Francoeur in RF does not support nor undermine the case for Diaz.”
werent they on the same team at the beginning of the year? if one is more qualified than the other, then there is a completely valid argument. that makes no sense.
take it out of baseball context: 2 workers, of the same company, are up for an assistant manager position. neither of them are great, but one is better than the other. the company doesnt have the money to keep both guys and hire someone fresh, so who is the company going to promote? the better worker is named matt. there is a valid argument that matt should get the job. then, maybe he gets fired if he doesnt perform.
i think JoeyT needs a girlfriend………….quick.
Giants / Rockies knotted at 1 apiece after 4 innings.
Weird stat. Jason Hammel has thrown 31 pitches in 4 innings against the “swing at anything” Giants. One K, No BB.
Even weirder, if you are as bad offensively as the Giants, wouldn’t you want to take a chance that MAYBE the guy might walk you?
Fish beat Pads, so we need to keep this thing going and keep winning.
Despite where we end up, at least we are fighting and clawing and have some improvements to like and be proud of.
Never thought I’d say it, but Greinke looks like Maddux in his prime today
No Ryan, it doesn’t make a difference. Or, to be more specific, the difference it makes is not the difference being argued (at least not back in the other thread where I posted originally.)
If Diaz is a better player than Francoeur is relevant if the question is “should Matt Diaz play ahead of Jeff Francoeur?” Obviously so. Without getting into the details of whether a reasonable observer should have thought with any certainty that Diaz was better or worse than Francoeur as a starting option at the start of this season, the question obviously hinges on the differences between Diaz and Francoeur’s relative skill sets.
But that’s not the question we are posing now.
Our current question has nothing to do with Jeff Francoeur. Our current question should read “is Matt Diaz good enough to be a full time starter on an OF corner in MLB?” Diaz could be three times greater than Francoeur and still not be a capable full time starter (if Francouer is more than three times worse than replacement level, for example.)
If you’re asking a historical question – should Diaz have started ahead of Francoeur – then the comparison is valid. Me, personally, I don’t care about Jeff Francoeur any more. He’s a Met. I am not concerned about the Braves players the rest of 2009 and beyond. So the only question I’m concerned with is “is Matt Diaz a full time player or not.” Jeff Francoeur isn’t part of the equation.
The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,
Moves on; nor all your Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all your Tears wash out a Word of it.
… and all your money won’t another minute buy… 🙂
The saddest words of Tongue or Pen
Are those that write “What Might Have Been”.
Don’t look back in anger, I heard you say.
I thought the saddest of possible words were “Tinker to Evers to Chance.”
“Or Bruntlett times three.”
Were you referring to an Elvis Costello show at the Fox Theater in Atlanta?
I saw him do “The Backstabbers” there in 1982 on the Imperial Bedroom tour.
I can’t remember what I ate yesterday, but for some reason I remember all the EC shows I’ve seen.
colorado lost, need to take advantage and win tonight
A photo from tonight’s pregame
#22 – Anderson may be too lazy to pull that off also
“thought I’d something more to say …”
The Phillies cheerleaders have nothing on the Braves’ girls.
With a win tonight, 2.5 out of the WC.
Raul Ibanez Post-ASB:
.221 .301 .407 .708
Daniel, do you have Jason Bay’s Post-ASB numbers by chance?
Both players put up MVP type first halfs, but have definitely returned to Earth.
Looks like Adam is well enough to play! Good man.
Not Gorecki again…
Jason Bay is actually doing better post-ASB
Post-ASB: .250 .392 .525 .917
Pre-ASB: .260 .380 .527 .908
However, his hot streak ended much earlier than the ASB
Happy to see former Bravo Renetaria help us out big time today with a huge grandslam to beat the Rocks. Speaking of long lost Braves – watching Wainwright today makes me wish we’d never dealt him for one year of J.D. Drew. He’s an ace.
Have to win tonight to get to 2.5. The Rockies have lost 5 in a row and that probably isn’t going to happen again.
@29 the problem for Bay hasn’t been .avg/obp/slug it’s injuries and limited RBI chances since June. He had 20hr and 72rbi in the first half – 86 games, but has only played in 36 games in the second half with 9 hr and 20rbi.
Let’s have another blowout, boys.
FWIW, McCann has crazy numbers vs. Blanton.
EDIT: So now he’s 6 for 11.
Anyone elses ESPN broadcast screwy? I should probably be thankful there’s no sound, but the random comcast commercial in the middle of the inning is a bit annoying.
Can beat that first inning from JJ.
True, but couldn’t help but think oh @#$% when utley hit the ball
Reid Gorecki = Ryan Langerhans
Church is a big bitch. Who cares, though. Francoeur is gone.
Church riding the bench is better than Francoeur in the lineup.
Gorecki or Blanco? I think Gorecki is up because he’s a righty and the Braves’ putative outfield is full of lefties. Gregor will be up Tuesday, I’m sure.
The blogger who called out Ibanez is properly sounding more credible by the day.
any news/guesses about other folks we might see Tuesday?
I think Acosta’s coming back to dazzle us with his ability to retire batters.
The reports were that Acosta would be back, but I’ve no idea why. I’d think that Conrad will be back.
Beginning of the end for Chipper Jones….well he has a nice run.
Nice swing chipper. Nothing like joe blanton making bravesjournal’s fav player in chipper jones look like a fool
How much more haplessness do some of u have to see before you realize chipper is on the decline.
It doesn’t matter as long as he knows how to win
I’m guessing there may be one more arm–maybe Valdez. I’d like to see Brandon Jones back. Bringing up Sammons would allow Ross to ph. Some recalls may not happen until Gwinnett finishes its season, though that’s sort of stupid with the big league club being in a playoff chase.
Acosta, Valdez, maybe Jo-Jo, Conrad, Sammons, Barbaro, maybe Blanco
Thanks joe morgan haha
Gwinnett’s in a playoff race, too. Actually, they seem likely to win the wildcard…
I think Blanco, B-Jones, or Crab Man, one of them, has to be called up with the major league outfield so shorthanded.
Acosta can’t come up until 10 days after his demotion.
… though you could reinforce Gwinnett by promoting Heyward.
I don’t think that the ten-day thing applies after roster expansion.
@54–if only that were true 🙂
I think Joe Morgan’s sidekick (not the Met GM) just said Blanton should be scared Gorecki
Why didn’t they just call up crab man instead of Gorecki? I mean, they probably both suck, but crab man has the advantage of already occupying a 40-man roster spot.
I’d like to see crab man get a shot.
Gorecki was playing better.
Mac, sorry if you’ve already discussed this or if it’s neither the time or the place… but what kind of chances are you giving to VT with the game being in ATL?
I think we’ll win, but who knows? I just don’t see how Tech will move the ball, but Beamer might have some surprises.
One prediction: Tech will blitz. A lot. If Alabama can move the ball in the same slow-and-steady way they did last year, the Hokies don’t have much of a chance. They need to create turnovers and third-and-longs.
Sound about right. Supposedly Taylor is throwing better, but there was plenty of room for improvement.
Turnovers and special teams can certainly make a difference, and that’s usually Tech’s bread and butter. Still, tough to count on those aspects of the game.
With Hudson now starting on Tuesday, are we actually going to go to a 6-man rotation? That would be cool.
Clutch DP there.
an escape worthy of Houdini
great recovery. thankfully.
That’s like 3 Houdini’s in a week for the Braves. Not to mention 2 in 2 days.
There have been 29 Houdini’s in the NL this year. The Braves have 3 in the past 5 days.
@48 Now you’re moving the goal posts. “On the decline” is a far cry from “done.” What 37 year-old isn’t on the decline?
I can’t believe the Phillies didn’t score with the bases loaded and no outs. We totally lucked out with that dp.
Blanton’s at 97 pitches. Time to get him.
Can we be lucky twice, and get out of this too?
That would be a “no.”
great. they bunt and get extra bases.
ACHE doesn’t care… he just wants to get back to the West Coast
ACHE’s the best.
Hey Mac… nice play there by your favorite player chipper. Cost us a couple of runs
I honestly can’t believe Anderson even got a glove on it. JJ’s teammates have let him down in this one.
On the Chipper front, Jon K is probably assembling his pitchforks and torches.
He beat me to it @ 86
When Prado hit his home run, I found myself thinking I hope that wouldn’t be the only run we got tonight. Unfortunately it’s looking like my fear is being realized. Jurrjens deserves better than this.
OK. Good news. Top of the order’s up.
In this case, the runs are truly unearned. Jon, get a life.
You’re a fool, Jon K. You’ve obviously never played a lick of ball in your life if you think Chipper is an idiot for that play. It’s an incredibly hard play, but the throw was easily within reach anyway. A real first baseman that understands simple physics (a throw made on the run will tail) would have caught it. Your one-note song is getting tired. Take your Ahab-like, factless hate to a Mets forum where people might be stupid enough to buy it.
I have been on Chipper’s case lately, but that was a tough play.
Don’t walk the only guy in a worse slump than Chipper and none of that happens.
That is why the runs are earned.
How in the world did they get an earned run out of that? Kill the unearned run rule already.
No error on Anderson. They just changed the ruling. I’m not sure about Chipper’s play.
Your a fool. You don’t make that play. When your an old 3B who has decreasing skills you should be smart enough to not force a throw and possibly cost your team runs. Don’t sit here and blame the first baseman.
Just don’t kill the rally with a home run.
Yourrr a foool.
Woot. One back.
How about holding your so called “best player” accountable. Don’t make excuses for this guy… he isn’t getting it done
94– Because Joe Morgan said so.
The Prado: 3 hits.
Everyone else: 1.
How did Prado not get to third on that ?
Chipper is one of the best I’ve ever seen at that play. Of course he should have tried to make that play.
Also, wasn’t Prado covering first cause of the bunt? Him running to the base made it pretty difficult to make the catch, but it was catchable.
Make that two. Chipper sure sucks.
The commercial with “The Most Interesting Man In The World” running with the fox in his hand is pretty funny.
The Braves have a real problem getting from first to third on hits to right. It’s sad, really.
Typical chipper hit right there. That’s what chipper is good for at this point in time, these seeing eye singles from our 3rd hitter. Yeah he just had an rbi single but it’s upseting that this team is still relying on him to be there go to guy. It’d be nice to have a true power hitting 3rd or 4th guy where chipper could be sloted down to 5th or 6th and just knock it through the holes. Chipper is being asked to do wayyy to much with his current skill set
@96 Did you really just say not to make that throw? You’re an even bigger idiot than I thought. How about leaving the baseball talk to people that actually know something about baseball. Your previous whining that Chipper isn’t worth his pay has already been empirically disproven, so now you’re left to petty sniping and cherry-picking in your inexplicable quest to prove the impossible.
Now that’s what a real rally killer looks like.
[DELETED — MT]
That was abusive, Jon. Watch your language.
Way to make up for your misplay, ACHE.
If Chipper was worth his 22.75 million dollar contract, he would have scored on McCann’s groundout.
Not to mention kinda strange. A Mongolian idiot? Is that worse than an American idiot?
And when did Chipper stop being 28?
Oh, right. 9 years ago. Thanks for the update.
Robert, I hope I can tell Mac is struggling.
Jon, your enthusiasm is great, but it is showing up in a very negative way.
Why is Soriano in for the lefties?
Because Bobby wants to see how far Howard can hit one.
Since my comment was deleted because I called GRST a slain term for Trisomy 21, I told GRST to go back to his armchair and keep thinking he’s Casey Stengel with his “I know the game” posts. haha your a joke buddy, settle down
Don Sutton is making the case for Howard to be the MVP. That’s moronic.
I mean, Bobby is the king of matchups. I just don’t get it.
Well, he’s looked like the MVP against us, and that’s what Sutton’s seen.
Did Ahab really just tell me to settle down? Projection can be ugly.
ESPN: Giants sweet Rockies
Keep up the fighting guys… I really feel like a breakthrough is coming when all the misconceived glory will land in the winner’s circle.
Why do the Braves always seem to score after the other team does in these late-and-close tie games?
It’ll go to the eighth inning 0-0 and the opposing team will score four and then the Braves will suddenly score two it seems.
What is this, the Ibanez Walking Festival?
@125 That’s ESPN quality!
LaRoche is going to take Lidge deep. (Where’s this coming from? I’m usually a pessimistic fan.)
If Yunel reaches, Bobby will probably have Adam bunt.
This team is a joke… thanks for coming out to watch this team tease us all the way to a 3rd place NL east finish
@129 Of course, Gorecki will get our last at-bat. Why is he on our team?
losing a game where KJ and Infante dont get any AB’s, but Gorecki and Norton do = unbelievable
I hate Greg Norton.
yes thats Greg Norton the guy who deserves to hit while KJ and Infante dont
So this is how it ends? Not with a bang, but a Norton?
Jon, you shouldn’t have expected this team to be in a race from the beginning, and your expectation was too high considering this is our rebuilding year. I think that’s why you are so angry.
i am seriously a better hitter than Norton. I will take the minimum to at least look good striking out.
It’s comical… this team is truly a comical joke. It’s almost as if they don’t want to make the playoffs. At every point this season when they have had the chance to capitalize in big situations and get key wins they just throw up the white flag
Oh, perfect. Norton to finish the game!!!
Robert, I hope you are watching Bobby’s magic!!!
they can score 2 runs on no hits but we can only get 1 run on 3 hits, pretty much sums it up
Im glad Infante was on deck to pinch hit for the pitcher!
So if everyone’s expectations were just to win some games and finish above .500 why are you all on here? Of course I expect my team to make the playoffs, if I convinced myself that they weren’t I wouldn’t watch or come on here and bother talking about them.
3 winnable ballgames lost in the last 7 days.
Yes, clearly they don’t want to win. Playing baseball isn’t competitive at all. No one is trying to stop the Braves from winning just as hard as the Braves are trying to win. Oh no. All a player has to do is WANT to do something, and he can do it without fail! Why didn’t my coaches ever teach me that one?
@148 I think we have to be realistic. Of course we all hope we can make the playoff, but it’s obvious from the beginning that we will not have enough weapons to get in.
@149 That’s all because of our rotation. Our rotation will keep us in every game. That’s why it’s driving us crazy, but we just do not have enough offense.
Release Greg Norton. Today.
I definetly think you should send your resume to the Atlanta Braves front office. Your knowledge of baseball is so vast and expansive, it’s mind blowing! I think you’d be a shoe in to be the next manager.
Everyone stop with the personal abuse.