94 thoughts on “Joyful game thread: May 29, Braves at D-Backs”

  1. @97 of the last thread: I didn’t mean to use Edmonds’ Turner Field numbers against him. I was just showing that Turner Field isn’t the kind of offensive park that Wrigley is capable of being, especially during the summer months when Jim joined the Cubs. Jim’s Wrigley split is enough for me to pass.

    @98 of the last thread: Does that plus/minus include Dunn’s time in left field? Where as I understand it the pluses come easier, and the minuses are fewer. Either that or it ignores his time in LF, which means the stat is compiled over a much smaller sample.

  2. It’s only in right field. But zero is zero, and -1 (Francoeur’s number) is -1. If your rate is zero, playing more (or less) won’t change it. There’s a sample size situation, though Dunn’s played quite a bit of right field.

  3. That’s really surprising, Mac. Do you trust those numbers? Is Adam Dunn about as good as Frenchy in right? Is he adequate? Everything I’ve seen has indicated otherwise, but I’d be open to rethinking it.

  4. There is no way Dunn’s defense can be so bad, or Francoeur’s defense so good, to make up for the gigantic difference in their current offensive production.

    Francoeur is right now like two more straight 0-fer games from having his OPS in the .500s (currently .616 OPS.)

  5. I buy the stat, but it’s probably just one of those things. Dunn’s not a great outfielder, but he’s more athletic than he’s usually given credit for, he does have a good arm, and his range factors have never been that bad — just a shade below the league. He makes a good number of errors, but that’s usually overblown. And I’m not all that high on Francoeur’s defense, either. I’d rather have speed than the arm.

  6. I’m a little murky on my plus/minus understanding. Does it take into account throwing, or just range?

    I must say I’ve been disappointed in Francoeur’s lacking defense since he won his Gold Glove. I knew Andruw’s departure would increase his responsibilities, but it shouldn’t have hurt as bad as it appears to have.

    I don’t get to watch enough games these days to say for certain, but is there a possibility that plus/minus is (significantly) influenced in the same way that Gold Glove Awards are? That is, what do you think the likelihood that A-Rod avoids a minus that Pedro Feliz would be given?

  7. I don’t get to watch enough games these days to say for certain

    Since when has that stopped you?

  8. I think they use a multiple-observer system, the same way that zone rating (which was originally designed and implemented by the same people) does. Also, videotape. I doubt you can remove all bias from the system, but you can minimize it.

  9. @8: Yeah, I imagined they used multiple observers. I wouldn’t be as worried about it if the numbers were made available to the public on a more regular basis. I certainly wouldn’t discount the figures by any stretch, as I’m sure they minimize bias about as much as possible in such a large-scale operation.

    @7: I can watch one game on TV and get a good look at a batter approach 4-6 PAs and 8-20 pitches. I can even check up Gameday the night of, and get a decent idea of pitch selection. Watching one game on TV will give me a poor look at 3-5 plays in RF tops. The best way to judge a defender is to focus your entire attention on everything they do, and TV just doesn’t allow you to do that.

  10. #9, get a good look at a batter approach 6 PAs with 8 pitches? I wonder who that might be!

  11. I said 4-6 PAs and 8-20 pitches. Just a ballpark estimate, but it was tailored to include those on the more extreme scales, which includes the person of whom you speak.

  12. It would be interesting to know Jeffy’s average pitch count per at bat. it can’t be over 3 pitches.

  13. people have been jumping on wren for the lack of upgrades on offense. wren had a good offseason, but here are 2 things that i think he really goofed on:

    1. not trading kj for a bat. prado and infante have been trememdous, and left field could have been solved.

    2. not taking a million dollar gamble on andruw jones. i’m not quite sure that andruw would have had success in an atlanta uniform, but i do know he would have been more successful than francoeur or schafer. he was worth the risk. hell, we gave 7 million dollars away to 3 guys who barely had a chance to be league average (glavine, francoeur, and ganderson).

    with 2 moves and less money, this could have been our lineup:
    infante
    escobar
    chipper
    ludwick (maybe)
    mccann
    kotchman
    andruw
    diaz

    seriously, what would have ludwick cost us this offseason? boyer, jo-jo, and kj? oh well, shoulda, woulda…

  14. #15 I think KJ would have been traded had
    a. Ludwick been good for more than just one season.
    b. The Cards not wanted a pitcher too.
    Wren did right to pass.
    He also did right to pass on Andruw as well. Only Frenchy’ performance has nosedived as precpitously as Druw’s. He was trending downward and his recent success I think is just temporary.

  15. Gotta love how people assume that just because it was rumored, the Kelly Johnson for Ryan Ludwick thing was absolutely true and available for the Braves and they could’ve done it anytime they wanted.

    And Prado’s stats are fading fast. A few days ago his OPS was over .900 and his batting average at .312.

    I also don’t think anyone thought Infante would’ve been so good or that it’s sustainable for a .260-something career hitter with a career OBP lower than that of Francoeur’s career OBP.

  16. Lineup (in pencil):

    1. KJ
    2. Escobar
    3. Chipper
    4. McCann
    5. Anderson
    6. Kotchman
    7. Francoeur
    8. Schafer
    9. Jurrjens

    Yunel in very light pencil, apparently.

  17. @14

    3.18

    Of course, that’s how many pitches thrown to him per PA. How many he sees is another question entirely….

  18. well Andruw is 2-3 and just hit his 5th HR for the season, Nelson Cruz followed with his 13th

  19. I don’t know how much that stat means, though. Yunel is walking 8.5% of the time and Frenchy’s rate is 2.7. It should make an impact, but at least for these two, there doesn’t seem to be a correlation.

    DOB also posted an interesting stat – Frenchy is hitting over .400 on first pitch balls put in play but less than .200 when he doesn’t.

  20. Gadfly-

    You mentioned the Braves might be in a better position to be “sellers”. I’m okay with that, really. What I’m not okay with is this “middle of the road position” that we seem to have been stuck in the last few years. If we are going to out and out rebuild…then let’s do it. Derek Lowe, Soriano, and a few other vets can be shopped. Let’s cut payroll and bring in the prospects. If we aren’t gonna reload, then let’s spend some damn money, shop some prospects, and bring in the bat(s) we need to win. Liberty has to know that they could make a BUNCH more money by a Braves playoff run to the WS.

    But, if we are rebuilding and cutting payroll…then we better spend the savings in the offseason to build a team that can compete. If that ain’t happening, then Liberty needs to sell to Arthur Blank. Reason #23,343 I hate Bud Selig: he trumped Arthur Blank’s bid to buy the team…imagine that, a rich local energetic active owner…to let a corporation buy a baseball team for tax purposes. Selig should be dragged out in the street by his nads and beaten with a Louisville slugger. Severely. But that’s a whole nother story.

    While we’re at it. I’m not sure if I want Frank Wren given that much critical control to rebuild my Atlanta Braves.

    If we’re talking about rebuilding, we might also want to take a look at the front office and all of the coaches.

    This franchise might really benefit from a full-fledged “Ctrl-Alt-Del”.

  21. 1. KJ
    2. Escobar
    3. Chipper
    4. McCann
    5. Anderson
    6. Kotchman
    7. Francoeur <- definition of insanity doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
    8. Schafer
    9. Jurrjens

    Tiger224 – while we are at it lets just move the franchise to Las Vegas.

  22. normally I would want Matt starting over Anderson, but check out Anderson’s #’s vs Garland

    3-34 .147/.171/.294/.466, that doesnt factor in his leadership, defense, and his professional hitter reputation

  23. @22: I was in the middle of nowhere in Montana while the Liberty negotiations were going on. I remember reading that Blank had shown some initial interest, but I’m not familiar with Bud Selig shutting him out… I try the hardest I can to ignore anything Bud does, and that was easier when I wasn’t online daily, so I must have just missed it. What exactly happened?

    As for the “middle of the road” position: I really think the Braves have been in full-fledged reload mode since the second Tex trade, but they have to do everything they can from a PR standpoint to keep it from appearing like a firesale. You don’t always have to empty the clip before you reload.

    Some people point to the Lowe and Vazquez moves and think that this shows we aren’t rebuilding, but I view it exactly opposite. The only real thing we gave up for Vazquez, apologies to Misters Gilmore, Lillibridge, and Rodriguez, was a prospect near his peak value who wasn’t in the long-term plans. We added Vazquez who had two years left on his deal, meaning we could move him at the deadline this year, or next, and we added a young live-armed lefty who might be ready to contribute in the Majors soon. We didn’t give up any players for Lowe. It was a hefty financial commitment, but his pitching style isn’t too prone to breaking down with age, meaning he may still be a viable veteran starter in 2010 or 2011 when we’re ready to make a run. Vazquez and Lowe (as well as Kawakami and Glavine) also give us the luxury of not rushing our young pitching talent to the Majors, so that they can develop at the appropriate pace.

  24. Gadfly, your posts are well-reasoned and enjoyable to read IMO when they’re not about Francoeur lol

  25. The race to the bottom for OPS among our outfielders is really getting heated:

    Anderson .617
    Francoeur .616
    Schafer .612

    It’s like they’re all coalescing into one great big ball of suck. And game in, game out, that ball OPS’s .615.

  26. We are one of the most forgiving teams I’ve ever seen. Need 4, maybe 5 outs to get out of an inning? Happy to oblige.

  27. Joe “You know, 1-2-3 innings will really help Jurrjens keep down his pitch count.”

    this mans knowledge is unmatched by all

  28. “Keeping down” pitch count is a foreign concept to me. Pitch counts always rise. You can’t keep them down, unless you pull a Carl Pavano or Mike Hampton.

  29. I hope I don’t sound too negative, but Frenchy hardly ever looks like he’s trying to take it to right, he just looks late.

  30. If we win this, we will not have pulled ourselves out of the slump … the D-Backs will have pulled us.

  31. So, who bet on Jurrjens hitting a bases-clearing double tonight?

    McCann just missed it.

  32. Amazingly, Chris Young is worse than Francoeur.

    That BS call on ball 4 to Reynolds cost us a run.

    Schafer!

  33. I know Francoeur had a RBI single and everything, but Ted Lilly could’ve hit the pitch he got the single off of. You’re supposed to hit those out of the park or for doubles, not singles.

  34. Worst of all, Francoeur is selfish, a condition made obvious by his at-bats, where it becomes clear that he pays no attention to what his teammates do at the plate. He has no clue when a pitcher is having control issues, and just flails at the first thing he sees instead of forcing a struggling pitcher to throw strikes. It’s all about what he does in his own mind, to hell with everyone else.

  35. crikey Esco hit that one a ton!

    edit–this can’t be the same pathetic bunch we’ve seen over the past 4 games

  36. Garland is really bad.

    The announcers earlier said if you took out his two worst starts this year, his ERA would be under 3.00. But you can probably say that about a lot of pitchers.

  37. Esco has to stay healthy. If the Braves can keep Esco, McCann and Chipper in the lineup somehow, then they have a chance. I believe Anderson is coming along.

  38. David O’Brien says 452 is probably a conservative estimate, too. That thing was a no-doubter. As soon as it hit his bat I knew that thing was out of there. And so did everyone in the park.

  39. 67–Glavine is coming to Rome next Tuesday–pretty cool b/c my son’s little league team will take the field with the team–unfortunately Pee Wee plays 3B not P

  40. So why do we do this… hardly score any runs for the longest time, and suddenly score 9 in one game…

  41. Wow…Garrett is slow, lazy or both. What was that??

    Chipping away. This game is far from over.

  42. A lousy effort at a foul ball by Frenchy.

    10-5 currently…bottom 5 Bravos.

    If Dbacks come back and win this game…I’m burning my couch like a rapid WVU’er.

  43. #48–Don’t scare me: the player that Donovan Tate (who the Braves might well draft) has been compared with is Chris Young….

  44. Boog is talking sabermetrics to Joe again–a pointless endeavor if there ever was one

  45. @17
    go back and read my post dan. gotta love how people dont really read before they post…

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