Sabernomics » Blog Archive » Putting Francouer in Perspective
As I mentioned in comments yesterday, the real Francoeur problem is outs.
UPDATE: Leaders in most outs, from THP. As previously indicated, Francoeur leads the NL (by one over Pierre). And Giles is eighth. What makes it especially bad is that the two of them have about twenty fewer PAs than the other leaders.
Maybe if Diaz and Laroche went up in the 9th hacking like Fracouer would, instead of watching pitches, something could have dropped for a hit. Patience is fine, but not when you know that you are not going get the close calls. Putting the ball in play and making an out is better then a strike-out any time. I just don’t see the advantage of working a count full then taking strike three, compared to swinging at the first pitch and lining out. At least there is always a chance with the ball in play, you’ll never get on base watching strike 3 go by.
That’s alot of outs right there. I agree, it’s a pretty big hole in his game..but I think he will improve.
And like dans said..I’d rather have Francouer up there hacking, putting the ball in play…then LaDouche lulling us all to sleep and eventually striking out.
LaRoche has been a far better player than Francoeur this year. His OPS is nearly 100 points higher. He’s also had fewer strikeouts and GIDPs.
posted this on the other thread, but I’ll put it here too.
Gammons thinks the Braves are exploring Andruw trades. How interesting that we were heavily involved in the Gathright trade, but Moore got him before us. Makes you think who has really been behind our success. JS writing a book and taking credit, Moore making the moves and getting deals done! What exactly did we lose here. Moore will you please come back….
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/ …… says we still might get Gathright from KC. Moore is going to clean us out.
I dont want Gathright he’s another Langerhans. Nothing but a decent 4th outfielder with speed. Just interesting how we were involved and Moore was able to make that happen.
Also, I saw this one on that link, any thoughts.
Morgan Ensberg and Willie Tavaras for Andruw Jones and some cash. Chipper can then be moved to 1st. Or, would you rather have another reliever like Qualls or Lidge than cash. Andruw might hit 70 HR’s in that park for them, but I dont think Houston would part with three everyday players for Jones.
Jeff has the advantage in batting average, total hits..home runs..rbi’s..runs scored..3b’s…stolen bases and defense.
Adam’s got more doubles..a higer OB%, higher slugging, higher OPS and less k’s
I’m still taking Jeff..any day of the week
Davey, that is purely the result of opportunity. Francoeur has higher counting stats because he’s played a lot more, not because he’s been more productive. Per plate appearance, LaRoche’s HR and RBI rates are a little below Francoeur’s, not much, and his runs scored rate is better. “Stolen bases” is silly, because Francoeur’s one stolen base comes against five caught stealing — LaRoche’s one CS is a better record by any measure.
Now, LaRoche has the advantage that he hasn’t had to face lefties very much, and he doesn’t hit lefties at all. But LaRoche has created the same number of runs (actually, .1 more) in about 75 fewer plate appearances. Based on what he’s actually done, LaRoche has been clearly superior at the plate, so you’d have to give a lot of credit for defense to argue Francoeur.
Jeffrey is in there everyday..while Adam platoons over at first when lefties are pitching.
If Adam played everyday..and had more plate appearances while having to hit lefties…I think his OB% etc would be lower.
And yes, I think Jeff’s defense is very valueable.
Please, keep as away from Willie Taveras at all costs. The kid is awful. I don’t think I’d mind trading Andruw at this point, provided we got value in return. One one hand, he seems to be playing very well these days, but on the other, his defense has declined a bit, and he’s aging. We’ll need to get at least one good bat in return, though, since his departure will leave a HUGE gaping hole in our lineup.
I also posted this on the previous thread………..
I’m against position moves for what don’t seem to be plausible or necessary reasons. We have a 3B….so why not trade for a 1B instead?? Chipper probably deserves to stay right where he is, after the whole LF disaster and restructuring/deferring his guaranteed money.
Also, Gathright is not only a poor hitter, he isn’t all that great with his glove either.
While I’m also on the downer bandwagon today, I’ll end with this: that mlbtraderumors guy hasn’t gotten one right EVER.
Look at the Yankees and their OBPs. Phenomenal. Don’t think there is any correlation between OBP and runs scored? Think again. The best hitting teams (and best hitters) are the most patient hitters. Period. That’s why the Yankees won all those World Series and (I think) why the Braves lost. At this point, Francoeur is a mediocre hitter that hurts the Braves as much as he helps. I like him in the long run and it’s unfair to expect him to be a finished product. But he is not a productive hitter.
There is no way to convince some people that Francoeur is failing at the plate. So long as he puts up “acceptable” triple crown numbers, they will refuse to listen, citing his triple crown numbers as evidence of his worth.
Jeff makes too many outs. Hopefully he won’t make so many in the future. Until he makes substantially fewer outs, he will be on net a detriment to the team.
I agree that Francoeur needs some plate discipline, but there is something to be said for the argument that LaRoche shouldn’t have taken that pitch for strike 3. Cox had just been thrown out for arguing strikes, so he should have known close ones would go against him. Though it could be that LaRoche was simply fooled by the pitch.
LaRoche .331 .473 .246
Francouer .271 .440 .250
The first column is On Base Percentage. Davey even you have to admit that ANYONE with a .271 OBP is below average. Power yes, defense maybe but Jeff is a hole in the lineup now. An automatic out on the Neifi Perez scale. Other out machines of note:
Name ba obp slg
Juan Pierre .248 .293 .312 overated CF
Adam Everett .246 .295 .342 light hitting defensive SS
Clint Barmes .207 .239 .320 wishes he hadn’t taken the venison
I know I know…….only 22. blah blah He’ll learn blah blah What an arm blah blah, Tremendous power. Ad nauseaum. All that doesn’t make him a better offensive player than Adam LaRoche or even close to a good player. Its not his fault though. Unless Kelly Johnson was the fall back position I can’t for the life of me believe that the Braves figured him for an every day player on a team they thought could contend.
I like the kid. I hope that he DOES become a star. But he aint until he gets control of the strike zone.
If we’re arguing the relative offensive merits of Francoeur vs. LaRoche, what does that tell you?
Ububba, I was about to say the same thing………….this folks, is how bad the season has gotten.
From David O’Brien on the AJC:
Schuerholz was working on a deal the other day, which was the reason he was late to his book signing at Turner Field. The deal fell through at the last minute, from what I’m told.
Yeah, it was a three-book deal with Warner, two novels and a collection of short stories. It fell through over an option for the movie rights.
LaRoche is somewhat unfairly criticized around here. He’s a dead average first baseman offensively, making up for a low BA with good secondary skills and good defense. That’s not someone you build the team around, but he’s someone you keep, at least to benefit from his age-27 season next year.
I’m on record here as a big fan of trading Francoeur, and this is why. Outs are the clock of baseball, and Frenchy runs off as much time as anyone in the league- only Pierre has made more outs. Frenchy right now is a lower-wattage version of Raul Mondesi or Henry Rodriguez, and would benefit from some time in Richmond. (So would the team in Richmond, which now has a historically bad offense.) His walk rate would have to increase fivefold to make him an acceptable RF offensively.
Wow, just wow! The Roach better than Frenchy….. I wan’t some of whatever you people have been smoking. One thing you are all missing is I can remember Roachy costing us 2-3 games because of defensive miscues. How many games has Frenchy won us or kept us in with his arm/defense? I don’t care how many outs he has he will never EVER be a worse player than that sleepwalking, ADD excuse using, retard at first base.
The Roach also has 56 strike outs in 224 at bats while Frenchy has 64 in 316 at bats. So The Roach strikes out more along with his costly errors. At least Frenchy makes more contact. In fact if you look at the stats he strikes out less often than all of our best hitters except Renteria and McCann!
Landogarner: proving Kyle S right since 2006!
I was going to join this debate, but I can’t say it any better than this:
Marc: Look at the Yankees and their OBPs. Phenomenal. Don’t think there is any correlation between OBP and runs scored? Think again. The best hitting teams (and best hitters) are the most patient hitters. Period. That’s why the Yankees won all those World Series and (I think) why the Braves lost.
Brian J: Outs are the clock of baseball, and Frenchy runs off as much time as anyone in the league
Stu: please point out to me where I meantioned anything about Frenchy’s “triple crown numbers”? Oh, I guess I didn’t! In fact I dind’t mention any batting numbers for either player other than SO’s. K, thx bye. gg no re
I’m not advocating trading Francouer. I’m just wishing that the Braves had a fall back position in RF. Jeff just isn’t cutting it now and he really needs to serve some time in Richmond but because of our dearth of outfield depth he’ll finish the season as the fulltime RF. In the process he’ll put up some funny numbers.
OBP BA SLG HR RBI
.274 .245 .478 30 110
All or Nada.
BTW for those that think Jeff is a great fielder he is last in the league amoung RFs in fielding percentage. Before everyone yells at me I know that it is a misleading stat but its usually misleading when one is trying to say that a guy is a great fielder. Example. Well look at Joe Blow, he has .1000 fielding percentage. Of course he only had 2 chances but thats what they say. Jeff has 6 outfield errors in 154 chances. To contrast Austin Kearns has 174 chances and only 1 error. I wish that everyone would stop saying that Francouer wins games with his glove. He doesn’t hurt us but he aint winning games either.
Landogarner, man you are harsh. Retard? If you go by looks then, yeah sure fast athletic Jeff Francouer sure looks like a better player than LaRoche but the statistical facts say something else.
Well the Apocalypse is upon us…We are debating whether LaRoche is better than Francoeur. This is what the cellar looks like I suppose. I hate to admit that by the stats, LaRoche is having a better season than Frenchy. Frankly he should be, he is 5 years older with a lot more experience. Not to mention that a .271 OBP should not be too hard to beat. Can we please end the trade Frenchy stuff? This franchise does not have the money to be able to trade so many high ceiling guys with minimum salaries.
Not looks Johnny, his huckleberry hound way of slowly running to first error, among other errors that cost multiple runs. Seems like every error he makes seems to be a costly error. And his “I have ADD but it’s not an excuse I am just saying I have ADD” bullshit. Gimme a break.
So I looked at Francoeur’s defensive stats on BP, and, keeping in mind all the potential criticisms of those stats, they list him as below average defensively.
He also makes outs 72.9% of the time. Ick. You only get 27 a game, and we’re wasting them.
In fact that’s my new nickname for Roachy, Huckleberry Hound.
We can keep argueing with stats all day long and I guess it
I’ll take a team with 9 Jeffrey’s over a team with 9 LaRoche’s any day.
Jeffrey plays every day, plays hard, hustles, shows emotion and looks like he’s having fun out there.
And if it comes down to a clutch at bat, late in the game, I’ll take Frenchy over Adam anytime
You all can bash me or call me stupid…I don’t care. We’re all entitled to our opinions.
that sentence above should read “and I guess it won’t get us very far”
TP has got to go…….being a hitting coach has got to be more about having an approach, as opposed to fixing something mechanical with your players. There are some ugly hacks out there getting the job done, and some picture perfect swings that can’t sniff base hits. So, adopting a philosophy that every “swing” can embrace ends up doing the team much better in the long run.
As a hitting coach, telling Jeff Francoeur not to worry about taking pitches is like a personal trainer telling Kirstie Alley not to worry about overeating. It makes no sense. He DOES need to start taking pitches and having an idea at the plate, or he’s got problems coming to him later on.
Funny thing about stats…You can always find some that back up what you want to believe. Right now LaRoche is outperforming Francouer. That is a fact. It is not due to Adam’s play, but rather due to Jeff’s lackluster play. I love watching Frenchy play. He does hustle and give it 100% every night, but as his career progresses he can not rely on hustle and guts while making outs 72% of the time.
Didn’t BP have KJ as one of the top outfielders defensively last year?
I agree Hoboken. TP needs to take some of our hitters to task for not being more patient. It’s his job and I don’t see him doing it. Even the damn Yankee announcers kept making fun of us last night for how many first pitch swings we had. If announcers are laughing about it then you KNOW opposing pitchers are rubbing their hands with glee.
And all of this “We want Jeff to keep his free swinging ways” crap is laughable. We need coaches that will take players to task for this slop.
The Braves are in the top half of the NL in runs scored, so I don’t think offence is what we should be bickering about. Yes, frenchy swings too much, but he still produces runs. Yes, Laroche an OK 1b but he strikes out a lot and seems to be just a lump with no personality. I think this perception overshadows his play.
I’ll take league average offence any day, its the piss poor pitching that is totally at fault for our record. Playing from behind, catching up, then losing anyway. That’s how most of our losses have gone. Most of the time the offence has tried to keep us in the game.
JoshQ, Yup this is where we are at. Sucks doesn’t it? The Braves and John Schuerholz in particular are guilty of hubris. Examples:
Jorge Sosa was really a good starting pitcher. I think(hope) that he’ll do better in the bullpen.
Jeff Francouer was ready. Despite strong evidence that his July 2005 production was the outlier and not his August/September
Tim Hudson is an ace. I think that he can still be good but he aint no ace.
They could continue to dodge injury. Last year the miracle of the Baby Braves. This year no babies and lots of injuries. organizational depth is a strength of the franchise but you can only go to the well so many times.
Brian Jordan had anything left. They left Jurries twisting. He got hurt and wasn’t playing well but its truly evident that BJ is done.
Ryan Langerhans is an everyday player. Not even league average. If Scott Thorman starts to hit then this could turn out to be a positive.
You can build a bullpen with pieces and parts. Yeah you can and the Braves have proven it year after year but this year no one has stepped up and had a career year like previous seasons. Could Leo Mazzone be the reason?
The best thing you can say about this team is that it has a decent core. Smoltz, Hudson, McCann, Andruw, Chipper (I sure hope he aint pulling a Murphy on us), Giles to some extent, Renteria. Potential in James, McBride and yes Francouer. Hopefully returning better than ever from injury Boyer, Davies, Kelly Johnson. So it aint this year but at least there is some hope for future seasons. I contrast this to the 80’s when all I had to hope for was that no one would ask which team I pulled for.
Sorry dans, we’re all so tired of complaining about the pitching everyday and wanted a day off. 🙂
Dan, I think most of those runs came in high scoring games prior to this streak. Doesn’t seem like we could be at the league average after the past month and a half.
I agree hoboken.
Terry Pendleton seems to be ineffective. I don’t understand why the Braves didn’t opt for someone with experience at a major league level. And McDowell is greener than that damn jolly giant. So not only are we an inexperienced “young” team on the field, our coaching staff isn’t much better.
Davey, If we had 9 Frenchy’s out there at least the games would go faster. Heck TBS might like that idea. More time for Sex in the City re runs.
You can look at stats all you want, but all you need to do to get an accurate portrayal is watch the games, which I assume most here are doing (at least Braves games, when accessible).
This is a team that strikes out too much, swings at too many bad balls and first pitches, and (generally) doesn’t produce with men on base, in which I lump situational hitting as well.
I’d rather have Frenchy mainly because there’s hope that he can improve. Laroche is as good as he is ever going to be. What distresses me is that all of Francoeur’s problems are of a type that are typically address and worked on in the minors. He might get it worked out in the bigs, but its going to take him a lot longer than if he had had the opportunity previously to fix it on the farm. Im affraid we’re slowing down the development of our best talent.
I have no life and spend my time trolling other teams’ fan sites in an attempt to be belligerent without getting beaten up.
And your point Daniel??
I have no life and I must rant.
Heh..it’s like spam.
I have no life so I can keep typing this stuff knowing that Mac is just going to write over it.
Where’s Alex when you need him. He needs to be in here bashing on Huckleberry Hound with me.
What many on here are missing is this…in a perfect world, Francoeur would still be in the minors or just now getting called up…He’d more more ready for MLB play, instead he’s already played 140 games (nearly a full season). It takes longer to adjust in majors, especially when called up prematurely.
The combination of Andruw Jones, Francoeur, and Adam LaRoche serves as a HUGE hole in Braves lineup, esp. when your leadoff hitter isn’t getting on base enough to become and RBI threat.
That’s why Andruw should be traded, imo. He’s gone after next season, and I honestly don’t know that I’d want to sign him to another expensive, long-term deal anyway, b/c his numbers will only get worse. If the Braves waited until the trade dealine of ’07 (assuming they aren’t in contention then) he would have the choice to veto the trade, given he’ll be a 10-5 player.
Personally, I’d like to see Carl Crawford in ATL, but that won’t likely happen w/o trading Salty, which many seem apprehensive to do, given his potential.
Also, I’d like many others, like to see Chipper move to first in the offseason. And Chipper is the one player I wouldn’t advocate trading (along with Franceour, McCann (obvious), Betemit, etc.)
Finally, assuming we don’t make a run quick and aren’t contenders, then John Thomson needs to be traded, whereas we get SOMETHING out of him.
Basically, I have no problem with LaRoche, A. Jones, and Francoeur, but TOGETHER, they hurt the team…and given option to keep ONE of them…I’m keeping Jeff.
All for now.
How many hitting coaches have the Braves had over the years? Many. Hoiw many really good hitting teams have they had? Few. I submit that a hitting or pitching coach is only as good as what they have to work with. And the Braves organizational philosophy over the years seems to be to go after aggressive “tools” hitters that will hit a lot of home runs. In fairness to TP, you can’t take a 22 year old and expect him to change overnight; you risk screwing him up more. What you hope is that he will slowly learn some patience and discipline over time.
I wouldn’t trade Francoeur because I think his potential upside is great and it’s silly to give up on somebody so young. This is what Andruw was like when he was this age. But I don’t think Frenchy is a sure fire star either.
And I think the hitting is a problem. They ran up some runs early in the season so they still rank pretty high. But if you look at the line up, it’s pretty bad. They struggle against any kind of decent (ans sometimes even mediocre) pitching.
So the guy hitting .281/.347/.516 is as big of a problem as the guy hitting .250/.271/.440? That makes no sense. For contractual and age reasons, there’s every reason to want Francoeur instead of Andruw, but Andruw is a far superior offensive player.
I also wouldn’t blame JS for bringing up French too soon. What options did he have? It’s not like he can go out and sign a real major league outfielder. Bobby and JS are not fools despite what people here seem to think; they are good corporate employees and spin it the way they are supposed to. Last night, ESPN quoted Smoltz as saying he has beenexpecting this to happen for the last several years. That’s absolutely right; they have been staving off the inevitable for years.
Who was it again who signed the Jones to contracts out of whack with the baseball market? Who traded for Mike Hampton? Who wasted money signing Mondesi and Jordan? Who protected Mike Hessman and Onil Joseph over Adam Stern? Who signed Vinny Castilla and pushed Chipper to the outfield?
Let’s leave Time-Warner alone. The Braves have a big payroll. JS is a big boy and he knows the rules. Some deals work out, others don’t. If he’s going to get credit for the run (and he deserves it) he bears blame for what’s happening now.
Andruw’s hitting as well as he has always hit. His .516 slugging percentage would be the 3rd-best of his career, and he’s on a pace for 38 HR, which would be his second-best total for a full season. He is part of the solution, not part of the problem. He is worth resigning at his current salary for another long-term deal.
LaRoche isn’t really either. He’s as average as you can be for a 1B. His good defense is a minor plus given that the rest of our infield is mediocre-to-brutal. The problem is that there’s no on-site replacement who will be as good until/unless McCann moves over there for B. Pena or Salty. Sorry, Thorman fans.
Frenchy is Part Of The Problem. There’s potential here, but he’s hurting the team on offense, and his defense doesn’t make up for it now that he’s not throwing out a runner every 5 games. He needs to go to Virginia, and go directly to Virginia, until he adds at least 60 points to his OBP one way or another.
The other part of the problem is the bench. Langerhans (I presume he’s riding the bench now) and Betemit are OK, but Pratt/ Orr/ Thorman are bad enough that I wouldn’t voluntarily use them as anything but 9th-inning defensive replacements.
JC, the Andruw contract was an excellent deal for the Braves- six years, $75 million compares awfully well to, say, Manny Ramirez’ 8/$160. Chipper’s contract was the real mistake since it forced Marte out for an injury-prone hitter already in decline.
I disagree that Andruw’s contract was a good deal. Last year, I estimate that AJ’s offense was worth $10.28 million. His defense probably gets him to $12.5 in 2005, but that was, by far, the best offensive season of his life. Furthermore, the free agent market wouldn’t have paid him that big of a deal, especially if you excluded 2005. It’s not a horrible deal, but I think he overpaid.
I’m a big Andruw fan, and I expect him to have a better season this year. But, from 2002-2004, AJ wasn’t worth the money he was making.
I wouldn’t compare AJ’s contract to Manny’s since Manny’s was really bad. (Well, he’s nicer than Hitler.) Also, Manny is a more valuable player than Andruw. His career OPS is 150-points higher. Manny is awesome.
Just to interject here. It is worth pointing out that it’s too early to abandon Ffrenchy entirely given his age.
Jose Reyes had one of the top out-making seasons of all time last year, but Willie and the Mets were patient with him and he learned from the experience. Wright, Beltran, and Julio Franco have all been really good role models in teaching him the strike zone.
This year, he’s not swinging at bad pitches, working deeper counts, has already walked more than all of last year, and, as his current hot streak demonstrates, is driving the good pitches he does see to all fields.
The point here is, if the Braves truly do consider this a lost season, they should let Frenchy learn (and get more experience). Have Chipper and Druw sit down and talk to him too. But I don’t think you should send him to AAA – let him learn in the majors.
Maybe the 90’s spoiled me, but I tend to think that if you are able to score 3 or 4 maybe 5 runs per game, the team should be assured a win. If the pitching staff routinely gives up 6,7,8 runs a game, you can’t expect any offence to score like that all the time.
I’m not a stat head so I not sure of this, but it seems to me that the majority of the wins by our big 3 of the 90’s were along the lines of, 2-0,3-1,2-1, not 10 run blow-outs and rarely 9-8 type games.
You don’t fix bad pitching with more offence.
JC, I wonder where you’re getting your figures. Current estimates are that a win is worth about $1.5 million, so he needs to be about 8 wins above replacement to be worth his money now. He’s done that three of the past four years, according to BP’s WARP statistic (taking offense and defense into account)- 10 wins in 2002, 9 in 2003, and over 8 in 2005.
Jason,
good point on the Jose Reyes-Jeff comaparison.
It’s WAY to early to even CONSIDER trading the possible “face of the franchise” for years, b/c he isn’t producing on a big-league level.
His patience will improve, but he’ll always be high-risk/high-reward, which isn’t always a bad thing…you just obviously don ‘t want a lineup full of Jeff’s. He likely never even flirt with a .300 season, but I fully project his average to be around .260ish with an OBP at least around .320, at worst case-scenario.
Andruw needs to go, however, getting sufficent return on him will be tough, considering the teams I’d think that would be interested in, don’t really have enough to give in return.
The estimates are my own. They’re based off estimates of winning on team revenues as reported by Forbes. Basically, every run produced/saved is worth about $127,000, although the impact isn’t linear. So, according to Bill James Runs Created, AJ generated about $11.3 million (89*.127). I didn’t use RC, which overstates AJ’s contribution, but you see how it gets us in the ballpark. Sorry to be so brief, but the method takes a long time to go through. But, I will detail it in my book, which comes out in March. (Sorry for the plug. I will plug it, but with much shame.)
I will add that the deal wasn’t awful.
Now we need to get rid of Andruw? Yeah and we need to get rid of that McCann kid he’s only hitting .350 something, what a bum.
I vote for getting rid of Landogarner next…
Stu Didn’t you get warned for making things personal the other day? Try sticking to the topic.
That was a joke, big guy. Take it easy.
I also wonder what impact trading Andruw would have on ticket sales. He is a fan favorite despite the treatment he’s getting lately. We need all the revenue we can get.
I’ve only skimmed most of this thread, but it seems to me that right now Laroche is at least mediocre, whereas Francoeur is hurting the team. Getting a .270 or so OBP out of any position, let alone an outfield position, is utterly pathetic. And the fact that he’s being rewarded with all this playing time only will reinforce this crappy behavior. Rafael Belliard’s career OBP was .270, but that’s better than Francoeur’s because most of his playing time was not in this high-offense era.
Some people find francoeur exciting. I find him to be one of the most annoying players I’ve ever watched, he swings at so many bad pitches. he is young enough and has plenty of time to learn, and he has the tools to be dynamite, but right now he has the mentality to squander it all. But first and foremost he needs someone to tell him that making that many outs is simply unacceptable and needs to change.