JC’s probably smarter than me… Of what he predicts, I think he’s probably right about the first two, I hope he’s right about the next two, and the last will be interesting indeed.
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- **No Pepper** - Weekend Reading JC over Sabernomics has posted his Brave Predictions for the upcoming season, and I agree with a lot…
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Interesting read…I agree with his points made on Ramirez.
1. Wrong
2. Wrong
3. Correct
4. Correct
5. Maybe
A clarification. It’s not that I really disagree with his thought on Kolb being better suited as a setup, I just don’t think the Braves will replace him as closer.
This is the second time I’ve read someone say, because the Marte OF experiment lasted only two days, it must have gone well. I don’t see the logic, and I believe JC underestimates the difficulty in playing OF on a major league level. If Marte was trying out for the Bad News Bears, and showed he was capable of catching a simple pop-up, then sure, why spend more than two days reinforcing that fact?
But the Braves pay their instructors good money for a reason — to instruct. Does JC really think that, given the order to try Marte in the outfield, a professional instructor would hit balls at him for two days and then say, “OK, he’s got it?” Doesn’t make sense.
1. probably – his luck has to run out at some point.
2. hope not but not implausible. The Braves will stick with Kolb until he has 10 or so blown saves. Thats the unfortunate part.
3. i agree. No freak injuries and the guy puts up a 900 OPS.
4. disagree. I (hope) think that Langerhans and McCarthy beat him out in spring training.
5. contrarian but again plausible view of Marte’s 2 day ‘tryout’ in the outfield. Hope it happens but the Braves have been advancing him one level at a time like they did with Giles so I’m not so sure about this year.
FYI, since Cox’s return to the bench in mid season 1990, the Braves have changed closers in mid season several times. Some of those have been due to injury, others due to ineffectiveness. But its a long list:
1991 Juan Berenguer / Alejandro Pena
1992 Pena / Mike Stanton
1993 Stanton / Greg McMichael
1998 Mark Wohlers / Kerry Ligtenberg
2000 John Rocker / Mike Remlinger / Ligtenberg
2001 Rocker / Steve Karsay / John Smoltz
Also, while Cox has used a firmly entrenched pattern of relievers the last few years, that really only started with the 2002 Smoltz, Remlinger, Holmes, Hammond, Ligtenberg, Gryboski pen. Prior to that time, he would shuffle frequently and ride the hot hand (some would say almost ruthlessly).