You could look at this game in one of two ways.
Option A, which many of us probably reflexively took immediately after strike 3, is that this is an unbelievably frustrating loss in which the Braves coughed up a two-run lead in late innings and squandered a chance to win the series.
Option B is it was Cristopher Sanchez against Tyler Mahle and if you had a gun to your head and someone asked you the most likely run margin between the two teams, you probably would have wound up figuring on something like the headline result.
We knew these two teams would be well-matched coming into this series – we just went 4-3 across seven games against these exact same guys just a few weeks ago, and other than the one 12-2 blowout, the other six games were very close. We’re both teams whose offenses are filled with underperforming veterans on expensive contracts and whose starting rotations are banged up. We have a better bullpen and arguably more roster depth, but these guys have killed us before and I won’t rest easy until the stake is through their hearts and the daylight has turned their bodies to ash.
First off: Tyler Mahle was absolutely brilliant this afternoon. The Phillies hit a number of balls hard in the first inning but he managed to limit the damage to one run – with some assistance by Brandon Marsh, who badly expanded the zone on his splitter. The rest of the Philly lineup proceeded to flail miserably at his splitter the rest of the afternoon. (Per Savant, nearly 60 percent of his pitches were splitters.) Across the remaining six innings, he scattered three hits, all singles.
The guy has been such a stud for us. It wouldn’t feel right to write a game story without spending the majority of it in awe and gratitude for just how incredible he’s been – as midyear pickups go, he’s writing a legacy to rival the Crime Dog.
As Mahle departed the game, we were knotted 1-1, and he’d matched zeroes with one of the two or three best pitchers in baseball not named Chris Sale.
The late innings were where all the excitement happened, as is so often the case with this team. In the regular season, our boys hit .240/.301/.393 through the first seven frames, and .272/.340/.467 thereafter. It has made for quite a few joyful moments like we experienced yesterday, but it also ain’t exactly making it easy on yourself.
Anyway, in the bottom of the 7th inning, Bryce Harper utterly lost a ball in the shadows and it fell for an RBI “double”; the following inning, Walt Weiss called on Dylan Lee to get out Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, and they hit back-to-back solo shots to tie the game up, then Alec Bohm hit a wall-scraper for the go-ahead run in the top of the tenth.
It sucks to lose a game you were winning late, but it’s just hard for me to feel as apoplectic as I would have felt if it felt like we in any way deserved the lead – it sure seemed to me like the baseball Gods just gaveth and tooketh.
Back at it tomorrow, as Johnny Wholestaff lines up for what seems less likely to be a pitcher’s duel, although Zack Wheeler is likely making himself hoarse as we speak demanding to get the ball on short rest in an elimination game.
Let’s send these bums home.

Has Mahle pitched so much better for us than for SF because he’s changed his pitch mix? His regular-season FIP was only a run better than it was with SF, not 3 runs better like his ERA, so a good bit of it may just be luck, but that’s still a pretty big drop.
As far as the Braves not really deserving the lead, Bohm’s failure to take the out on Kim’s bunt in the 7th also contributed. Though maybe we should just assume that one defensive misplay per game is standard for the Phillies and only two like today is something we don’t deserve.
We’ve known each other for quite some time, but this take is perfect. Thanks, AAR.
Thank you! I was looking for the research you did (I think you did?) for our numbers vs. starter and vs. bullpen, against league average. If I didn’t hallucinate it, could you post that?
The final regular season numbers: https://www.baseball-reference.com/tools/share.fcgi?id=nBOLx
Ha – yes, I did manage to find by inning and that was actually my source for the stat I put in my article! Do you know of any split vs SP as opposed to vs RP?
That’s a gut punch of a loss. But it’s par for the course for this organization in the playoffs sadly.
At least tomorrow’s starter isn’t Foltynewicz.
Saying that losing in the playoffs is par for the course for the Braves organization is ridiculous. Since 1995 we have 74 playoff wins, which is the 5th most in the majors. This is more than the Mariners, Brewers, White Sox, Marlins, Twins, Rockies, Orioles, Pirates, and Reds combined. Saying it is par for the course for the Reds organization not to win in the playoffs ( they’ve won 2 playoff games in 31 years) is accurate. Saying it is par for the course for the Braves organization to lose in the playoffs is absurd.
It all depends how you crunch the numbers.
In the 1990s, the Braves went 11-7 in playoff series/rounds. Since 2000, they’ve won six of 21. And they’ve been one round and out 13 times in that span, to be 14 with a loss Thursday. One round and out in 13 of the 16 postseason trips from 2000 onward heading into this week actually does make it par for the course. As frustrating as it was in Octobers during the 1990s, the Braves since then are saddled with the albatross of making quick exits.
We did win the world series in 2021. We may lose our next game but I don’t see any relevance to that and the Braves organization being somehow deficient in winning playoff games. The organization has fielded a pretty good team for most of the last 30 years. At times teams have gotten lucky or hot that weren’t as good as Atlanta and at other times we’ve lost to better teams. I don’t see it as an organizational jinx, just baseball.
Game 3 moved to 8 p.m.
Only because we were the only team to not win in two.
“At least tomorrow’s starter isn’t Foltynewicz.” – – well, that’s something I guess. 😉
I was worried about this Phillies match-up once they came back from the dead – – and yesterday’s game is the type of juice you really don’t want them getting going into a decisive Game 3.
Cautiously optimistic, but hoping the Braves’ bats can wake up for a few innings today and make it a smidge easier for all of us. How ’bout a nice 8 run mini-explosion?
Google says the Braves have a 39-43 record all time on October 1st. Let’s get number 40.
Late game means six more hours of rest for Zach Wheeler. Stronger rumors coming out of Philadelphia that it will be Aaron Nola with the start on very short leash, then Wheeler then all hands on deck so could be Jesus Luzardo.
Strong suspicion that Duran might be unavailable, based on Mattingly deflecting questions about him.
Seems to me like the starting point should be 2018 if we’re looking at postseason performance by “this organization.” Not sure any series that ended before Didier Fuentes was 4 months old is particularly relevant, especially since the team only made the postseason 3 times in the 12 years 2006-17.
That makes the record in series 5-6 going into today, but in 5 of those series the Braves had the better regular-season record and in 6 they had the worse regular-season record, so going 5-6 doesn’t seem unusually bad. There were 3 series in which the Braves had the worse regular-season record & won and 3 in which they had the better record & lost. Unfortunately for our perceptions/frustration, all 3 of the former came in one year and 2 of the latter have come since, when the team won over 100 games, so the first-round losses seemed doubly unfair.
And to head off an obvious point, yes, the 2021 team was “better” than it’s full-season record, but even if you consider it a 94-win team rather than an 88-win one, they were still the worse regular-season team in all 3 series. You’d have to bump it up to 95 to change anything, and assuming 7 more wins in the first half of the season seems like a stretch, especially when it was the pitching that accounted for most of the 2nd-half improvement despite all the attention given to the 4 new OFs.
The writing at the Journel still sets the standard. Well done to all who post and recap. Thank you. Go Braves!
We better get some runs off Nola cuz we won’t get any against Wheeler or Luzardo. I’d imagine Mattingly won’t pitch Duran because we got to him twice.
Also, we better not let Turner, Schwarber, or Harper beat us. I don’t care so much about Bohm but the first three have killed us in the playoffs. Acuna striking out with men on base did not help.
Luzardo? Coming off an injury and he threw 77 pitches 2 days ago. He might throw 1 inning. And Wheeler is on short rest, and Nola is nothing special anymore.
Funny how my brain, apparently, is optimistic, but my heart is nervous and full of dread. A few early runs would be quite nice.
If we lose I will be mad, but more mad at the system than anything else. Holmes may completely shut them down or he may not have it at all. Anything can happen in one game and it isn’t because there’s an organizational problem or heartless players. If we get past Philly I’ll be happy. I think the Dodgers and Brewers are better teams than we are.
Kerr will be the opener tonight.
I know it seems crazy, but is Sale in relief completely off the table?
Maybe he could give us an inning. Might be his side day.
Personally, I’d have him right around Dom Smith on the depth chart. Beanpole with injury history whose back kept him out of the last postseason we played… no, thanks.
I’m with Alex on this. I think the only possible way that you would consider this is if it were game 7 of the World Series. That’s a unique situation. This, while it’s certainly a critical moment, isn’t one that you potentially sacrifice long-term injury for. At least, I wouldn’t.
Ray Kerr?
I hardly know’er!
Phillies starting Nola, no doubt in an effort to save Wheeler for LA. I’m sure Wheeler will be ready to go at any time.
6-1 Braves.
A little ol Carnac
Answer: Dom Smith hitting in the DH slot in a “win or go home” playoff game.
Question: How do you know the Braves didn’t do what needed to be done at the trading deadline?
maybe Dom goes and hits a homer…i’ll gladly wear egg on my face for a few days
Game thread posted (Scott… I’ll move you over)