[Editor’s note: I follow the Atlanta Braves. We are incredibly lucky to have snowshine follow everybody else in the organization, even people who have been here for a day-and-a-half. Thanks]
In this year’s draft the Braves chose seven players from the high school ranks. What sets this apart from other years is that all seven will get overslot deals and be considered real prospects. Let’s get introduced!
Kaiden McCarthy is a right hander signed for about $500k over slot (they really like him!) As a player the first thing to note is his age – still 17 – because he graduated from high school a year early. He would likely have been a top 15 pick next year. While “only” 6 foot, he has a great fastball topping out at 101 and typically sitting 96. He also has an above average curve, a slider and a rudimentary change. Given his arm action, I assume the change will be scrapped for a split. He may get a few innings in rookie ball but more likely fall instructionals will be his first real action. He is likely a slow mover through the minors as the team severely limits innings for young arms.
RHP Jenson Hirschkorn is the new dude, getting a $4M bonus that ties our #1 pick, AJ Gracia, for the largest bonus in the class. Standing 6 foot 7, Hirsch already has 3 plus pitches and better than average control and command. He won’t move fast through the system as he still needs to fill out his body and that takes time but he has the highest ceiling among this year’s draft class. I imagine he starts off at Augusta next year.
Cole Dennis is our first lottery pick. While he already has a slightly plus fastball and slider, scouts think his body will fill out and therefore project much more to come from him. He currently has poor command and control and will almost certainly stay in extended spring training next year until the rookie league gets going or perhaps even longer like Briggs MacKenzie this year. That plan is working well for Briggs so far.
Tyson Grulkowski can really spin a curveball while sitting 92 with his heater. His body is already maxxed out so scouts are divided on whether he will be a starter or reliever. The development of a third pitch will be key. He will likely begin at the complex next year.
The question with Jack Brenner is catcher or third base? His best tools are arm and hit which suggests third as catchers often stall developmentally due to injuries. OTOH, he has put up sub 2 second pop times to second on basestealers and is reportedly already as polished as high school catchers get defensively. He has yet to sign but is expected to.
The Braves announced Ryne Barker as a third baseman but most scouts see him as a better fit in center field to take advantage of his double-plus speed. We gave him 4th round money but he has way more upside than your average 4th rounder. I imagine we will know the development plan by his assignment next spring as he would go to the complex as a center fielder or A- as a third baseman.
Finally, we get to Cole Dorland, a smallish (a little short of 6 feet) RHP from Canada. Dorland is another projection play as the Braves are happy to sign kids from cold weather areas because they often have untapped talent that can be brought out by good coaching. Think Mike Soroka here (I am not comparing them physically or as pitchers). He has yet to sign but is expected to.
Where do they fit in the system?
I don’t like to rank guys before they have played professionally. Put a gun to my head and I would place Hirschkorn at the top of the 2nd tier with McCarthy and Barker somewhere in that same tier. The other guys I will need some data on 🙂

Amazing job snowshine. What an unbelievable class. It’s still a crapshoot, but we could look back at this one as the one that revitalized the system.
I am higher on Gracia than most. The form, timing and pitch recognition he has is just fantastic and would seem to translate well. Wouldn’t surprise me if he is the first (or among the first three) to break into the majors in the class.
Re:Riley via Rob
I think he is a lost cause. Maybe he can somehow be a 90-95 wRC+ player and not be totally a zero. But I think the odds are >50% that the Braves will be eating that contract at some point down the road.
Unfortunately, I think many of us out in the world of Braves fandom think the same thing. This has been a consistent run of bad performance for multiple years for various reasons, including injuries. The issue that stands out to me is his really awful pitch recognition at present. He is getting consistently carved up by the same pitching patterns and seemingly has no way to stop it. I have seen it mentioned many times that his slide began with the sad passing of his personal hitting coach, and that seems to make as much sense as anything. I don’t think hoping he can magically figure it out is a great philosophy but at this point there isn’t much else we can do. We could send him down or eat the deal right now, but I don’t see that happening until next season at the earliest, unless it is a bad contract swap where the Braves and another org think a change of scenery will help.
If he somehow managed a 90-95 wRC, played good defense, and stole a few bags, then he’d be a 3 WAR player and worth his contract. The Braves weren’t paying him $22M in hopes of him continuing to replicate his 3 consecutive 6 WAR seasons, nor would he have signed that deal if he thought he could keep pumping out 6 WAR seasons.
If he could get back to playing every day as he at least is so far this season, hit .250/.310/.400, steal 8-10 bases (6 so far this year), and play good defense, that’s about a 2-2.5 WAR player. Then he’d be paid around $10M per WAR, and I think you can live with that considering he’s also a good teammate.
Maybe he’s washed up but I doubt it, meaning I think he can still physically perform at a high level, but something is obviously very wrong.
This is relevant:
“I’ve talked to so many really good players that have had that core muscle surgery, that sports hernia: They say it takes two years to come back from that,” Apple TV sideline reporter Heidi Watney told me recently on the Braves Today podcast. “That the first year, you don’t feel right at the plate because you use so much of your hips and your torque for your swing.”
https://www.bravestoday.com/p/what-really-happened-to-austin-riley
Maybe that is why he commits to getting started early and gets fooled by the off-speed stuff? If he doesn’t trust himself yet, that could certainly be an issue. I think many of us (me included) “feel” like we are paying him to be a semi-elite level run producer, not a 2-2.5 WAR player. Unfair or not, that is what many of us thought he was on the trajectory to becoming.
Riley may never be a good MLB hitter again, but I’m betting he will return to some semblance of what he was. As Rob says, he doesn’t have to be the 6 WAR player he was for three years to be valuable and worth his contract. Bellinger is an interesting comp. He had three terrific years very early (similar to Austin), and then injuries and swing mechanics caused his production to fall off a cliff. The Dodgers nontendered him. He was every bit as bad as Riley is now four and five years ago. He’s recovered a fair amount of his value since then.
One difference is that Riley is a few years older than Bellinger was when he was awful. Still, I dont think Riley’s problem is age-related decline. It’s more in his head as everyone seems to agree.
His bat speed is still great, but it sometimes looks like he struggles rotating. I’m no expert.
Regardless, his approach at the plate has to change or he won’t be playable.
He never had great defense; never had great speed; and he’s not great at drawing walks. His value is hitting mistakes for power. Once that goes away, he’s not even an average player and that’s what we see now.
For the life of me, I don’t understand why the front office decided Freeman’s sixth year was an unacceptable amount of risk, but Riley’s extension wasn’t.
A monomaniacal focus on median aging curves. It’s called “analytics”
The 2027 schedule has been released, and MLB has blessed us with another 7-day road trip beginning with the Dodgers, followed by the Brewers.
https://x.com/Braves/status/2077833412849643856
Saw that. Bizarre road trip to start a season. MLB better not put us on a Sunday-night game in LA before that Milwaukee trip.
Tonight… let’s go Mets — they’re up on Philly 3-1 in the 9th.
FWIW, RAJ hit a GSHR while rehabbing in a Florida Coast League game today. We could definitely use some of that.
I wouldnt worry too much about the 2027 season.
Agreed. There is very little chance that 2027 starts on time, if at all at this rate.
Come onnnnn, we’ve been through this song-and-dance before. They’re gonna posture and threaten and blah blah blah, and then they’ll just have an abbreviated Spring Training and they’ll play 162. It’s too expensive to miss time.
Personally, I’m betting that we’ll see something like 1995. The owners are pot-committed to lock out the players; negotiations will continue to proceed glacially till then, as there’s really little incentive on either side to make significant concessions until that forcing function arrives; and it’s going to come down to the wire. I’d be quite surprised if the negotiations didn’t continue into the time when pitchers and catchers would report, and even into March. At that point, the players’ need for spring training would potentially eat into April games.
They would never admit it, but they will never want to do the damage to the sport that 1995 did. I’ve been wrong many many times, but I would be shocked if there was a significant work stoppage, if any. That’s just so damn bad for the sport, and you just don’t see a whole lot of work stoppages in professional sports nowadays. They get what they can and move on.
Agree with Rob. It should not make sense to repeat 1995 for the owners. The financial hit would outweigh the gain, at least for a few years. Long-term, sure but they are pretty much all making money right now, don’t they.
I just wish the Braves would do SOMETHING to change the mojo right now. Talking about prospects is what a lising team does…… I think Riley will comeo out of it eventually. If it’s really still related to injury then he will still need help recovering his mechanics. Chasing outside breaking balls has never worked for him.
Also, I think that Rob is onto something. Riley does have good speed and his defense has improved. He could be a stalwart for a long time if he recivers some hitting proficiency.
P.S. I doubt we see any Mets or gNats in trades and I’m also guessing we never see Skubal.
I hope you are right Rob.
Today is my 40th birthday. I feel like I’ve been coming to this place since I was knee-high to a grasshopper. Really, I think I started coming here when I was 13 or 14 or 15. And this place has been a constant in my teens, my 20’s, my 30’s, and now into my 40’s. I’m incredibly grateful for everyone who posts here and the impact it’s had on my life as I advance into my geriatric years. Please keep me in your thoughts as I try to stave off dementia and arthritic hips and AARP or whatever happens in your 40’s.
As one of the relative geriatrics, I welcome you to 40. I remember when I thought that was old.
AARP? You probably won’t start getting that snail-mail for another decade. IIRC, my first one showed up in the mailbox smack-dab on my 50th birthday. Funny how that happens…
Happy birthday, young man. Aging is highly overrated, but you’re still well over 20 years away.
Happy Birthday, Rob. You are still a young fella! I guess that means that I “know” you for pretty much 25 years. And thank you for everything you are doing for Braves Journal. Taking over as our boss for a while when we needed you a few years ago.
You’ve aged like wine, Rob, but then again, we all have. Enjoy the day, man!
Happy birthday, Rob. Many more.
Happy birthday, Rob. To quote Satchel Paige, “How old would you be if you didn’t know how old you was?”
amazing what a few days rest will do. I’ve seen a lot of kvetching about the Braves’ record without Acuna, but I’d like to see what the Braves’ record is with Kim. If Jarvis and Hicklen are the answer then Kim must go and maybe someone else. Maybe Riley can go to the IL and Mateo can handle 3rd.
Ain’t this fun?
Recapped