Pitcher Injury

The announcement that Hurston Waldrep needs Tommy John (RIP) surgery and that Spencer Schwellenbach needs to reconstruct his just-reconstructed elbow, along with Spencer Strider‘s stop-and-start recovery from, well, exactly from what is not entirely certain, has led to a search for scapegoats. I am not just talking about our new insect overlords, who has never seen a Braves management decision he likes (feel free to disagree, my friend, but bring references) but from others such as Td, who opined today:

I believe Atlanta’s number 1 priority going forward should be a pitching coach or simply a training program throughout the entire organization that minimizes arm injuries I know injuries will happen but we have to do better. I think the Reds are doing a pretty good job with addressing injuries. Why spend so much money on getting elite arms if we can’t keep them healthy?

First, “number 1 priority” is, I presume, hyperbole. I mean, I get the sentiment, but there are, I think, higher priorities.

Second, can you minimize arm injuries and maintain an effective pitching staff? I honestly don’t know the answer to that question. Even if Td is right and there is some secret sauce here, I don’t want Cincinnati’s pitching staff, especially given the fact that their obviously best pitcher, Hunter Greene, had his second Tommy John surgery two weeks ago and will be racing Waldrep to see who gets back first.

As to “getting elite arms and … keep[ing] them healthy,” I offer the two-time defending champion LA Dodgers. They’re obviously shopping in a different aisle, but between Ohtani, Snell, Kershaw (pre-retirement), Glasnow, Diaz, etc., etc. you can have a very successful pitching staff and team without any particular ability to keep really good pitchers healthy.

Finally, though, I haven’t seen any evidence that the Braves organization is actually any worse at this than any other organization. To be fair, I haven’t been looking for that evidence and I’m not sure where I’d go to find it. (There is a Tommy John surgery database with 2719 entries and which will add Waldrep soon as #2720. I think there’s a whole lot you’d have to control for to turn that into a study differentiating franchise competence, and as far as I know no one has done it.) We know that modern every-pitch-at-115% usage causes injury, and that a lot of those injuries are year-plus recoveries and some guys are unable to recover despite the miracles of Tommy John surgery and its offshoots.

I don’t want to sound callous, or be callous for that matter. I don’t mean to suggest that surgical alteration is the price you pay to be a good major league pitcher. It might be right in individual cases, probably not predictable in advance, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t try to create conditions that reduce injuries. But as far as I know, (a) nobody knows what those conditions are (there are some tantalizing hints dealing with pitcher education, but it’s nothing close to demonstrated yet); and (b) if those conditions materially reduced the effectiveness of pitchers, the imposition of those conditons is not a stable equilibrium. I just heard Walt Weiss say something I agree with: “You know what makes managing a pitching staff hard? When they aren’t very good.”

Pennant Race

The Rockies and Angels have 83 losses, tied for the most in MLB. They are playing the Braves and Phillies. Losing teams lose in interesting ways, sometimes, and the Phillies won last night on a two-out pinch-hit grand slam in the 9th. Just win, baby.

Denver

I was never a big John Denver fan. He of course wasn’t born in Colorado, and Denver was not his real name (he was born Henry John Deutschendorf Jr.) There are varied stories about why he chose Denver, and many of them have nothing to do with Colorado at all. While Rocky Mountain High was his signature song during his lifetime, he is today ubiquitous for Take Me Home, Country Roads, a song about a different mountain range entirely. The Rockies get no respect.

Hunting and Fishing Day

Really? Stick to your knitting, boys.

The Lineup

Dubón was back at short, and Dominic Smith was slotted as the DH in the 9 hole. There is something odd about putting your DH in the 9 hole. Through last year, 7/10ths of 1 percent of ninth-hole plate appearances (in games with a DH) have been made by DHs.

The Game

Putative Rockies starting pitcher Ryan Feltner came down with the proverbial flu-like symptoms, indicative either of a night out in Atlanta (“Both of them. Count it”) or a salad with dodgy lettuce. The final possibility, that he just didn’t want to face Atlanta, is rejected out of hand. He is too important to the Rockies playoff push.

So instead they went with a bullpen game, starting with Zach Agnos, who gave up no runs in two+ innings of work, eliminating my ability to make a ‘lamb to the slaughter’ joke. He was followed by Zach Nick Frasso, who was Dodger property until the trade deadline. I hope he hadn’t already spent that sweet playoff money, though he’d spent the season up to now in Oklahoma City. The good news? You’re in The Show. The bad news? You’re on the worst team in the majors in the worst stadium for pitchers. He emerged unscathed. Frasso was followed by Brennan Bernardino, who worked a scoreless fifth. He was replaced by Jimmy ‘Duelling Banjos’ Herget, who mowed down Acuña, Olson and Dubón on 10 pitches.

On the home side, Martin Perez dominated through five and then forgot how to pitch in the sixth, though he only gave up one run, being rescued with the bases loaded by Brent Suter, who then worked a scoreless 7th.

So we arrived at the bottom of the 7th trailing 1-0 for Herget’s second inning of work. Time to get serious. Harris led off with an infield single. At that point, Ozzie hit a foul ball off umpire Ron Kulpa’s mask that staggered him. After an extended period of evaluation, Kulpa left the game which led to a substantial delay (during which they played “Take Me Home, Country Roads.”) Herget then hit Ozzie, leading to two on and nobody out. Yaz hit into a double play, leading to Jaden Hill entering to pitch. He walked Riley who stole second, but Lane Thomas struck out to end the threat. I’m in the Berkshires, and I heard Roger yell from up here.

After another scoreless inning from Suter, we find out why bad teams are bad. With two outs, Olson singled (off the wall) Dubón singled to make it first-and-third. Harris sent a ball into the gap that centerfielder Cole Carrigg (last seen making bad coffee) almost made a great play on. That tied the game, but the decision by the left-fielder to throw to second to try and get Harris instead of throwing home to keep the game tied backfired when Harris was safe and Dubón came home without a throw. Unless you are absolutely certain you have Harris, you have to throw home there. (I would note that Dubón went through a stop sign. Fine him?)

Didier Fuentes for the save. After an opening walk (just for the sake of agita) and a strikeout, a single made it first-and-second and one out (as the agita level rises and the Alka-Seltzer comes out). Zac Veen‘s and Didier Fuentes‘ lives graphically overlapped at this point. (Same basic joke two days in a row.) Veen struck out. A flyout ended it.

81 wins. A losing season is now impossible. Going for consecutive sweep deux tomorrow.