Our Playoff Prospects

A robust debate has broken out here in the last few days, but I think it’s a debate with a simple resolution. No one thinks that 2026 Atlanta Braves are guaranteed to win the World Series or even to get out of a first Wild Card round against the Padres or Diamondbacks. In a profound sense, I’d like to a bit of credit for the sensibility of the debate here, which reads directly from the Gospel According to Crapshoot.

But to the more pessimistic among you, I note that the Braves have played extremely well (by which I mean holding their own) against the Brewers, Yankees, Rays, Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers and White Sox Guardians… the teams that, if we’re going to lose, form the bulk of the teams we will lose to. The elimination of Minnesota and the Giants are the key head-to-head-hurdles.

Now I hear some of you objecting that the playoffs are different, and I agree. But there is no asymmetry here: it’s different for everybody. The Yankees have a great pitching staff, and we played three games against them in the Bronx in which either team could have won any game. Why do you think Gerrit Cole would play better in the playoffs? And whatever reason you come up with, why wouldn’t Chris Sale play better too? Might Ronald Acuña Jr. go into a slump? Sure? But Austin Riley might go on a heater. Mark Lemke hit 0.417 in a World Series and Mike Devereaux was the 1995 NLCS MVP. Nobody saw either of those coming.

The playoffs are different, but the difference largely stems from personnel differences. The Braves have started AJSS and Reylo and Ritchie in the last week with no intention that any of them would be any more than longman support in the bullpen. For the most part, what I’ve seen is playoff teams trying to win games with their best players — that’s playoff baseball, and we’ve held our own. I don’t want to overstate this: we haven’t done a lot more than holding our own either, but that’s what you expect is playoff-level baseball: it’s exactly why they’re a crapshoot.

I think I’ve told this story before, but I was once hired to quantify the difference between luck and skill in online poker. As I pointed out in my report, despite the fact that there is an immense amount of skill in poker, once players are put in tiers roughly corresponding to their skills, most (but by no means all) of what is left is luck, particularly in games like poker in which everyone grants that’s there’s a lot of luck in the very short run. Baseball players are insanely skilled, but that doesn’t mean that battles between the best teams aren’t mostly luck — the skill differences cancel out, more or less.

There was a time not that long ago when watching the Braves play the Dodgers meant we were outclassed — we would have to be unusually lucky to have any chance. I suspect that the probability that the Braves will win the World Series is 10 percent, and I suspect the Dodgers have a higher probabilty than that. But I will take a stand on the simple proposition that the Braves can beat any other team in these playoffs, even though they may not, and even though they could even get blown out in a game or two.

In a word, this team is worthy. They aren’t lucky to get into the playoffs. They aren’t backing in. They do a few things as well as anyone. They have been fun to watch this season, despite the fact that the inexplicably failed to go 162-0. Walt Weiss‘s decisions have been genuinely interesting, and refreshing.

What’s Left

Three games this weekend against Houston, a team that is fighting for a playoff spot. But after that, six games against Cincinnati and Miami, two teams with very little to play for. And unless the Dodgers stumble, or the Phillies go insane, the Braves don’t have anything to play for either. And the Dodgers would have to stumble a lot… they won today to go four games up. So at this point it’s about setting up for the playoffs, given that we will be playing a wild-card series in Atlanta.

A Braves Journal Contest

Please enter in the comments.

  • How many games will the Braves win in the playoffs?
  • How many will they lose?
  • How many runs will they score?
  • How many runs will they allow?

Grand prize commensurate with accuracy and with surprisingness. I’m going (no one will be surprised) with 13 wins, no losses, scoring 39 (just to rib Roger) and yielding 13 (shutouts are not sporting).