Sending Runners
Not sure if anyone cares, but my continuation of yesterday’s inquiry into sending runners home has been delayed by life. Watch this space.
Is Regular Season Offense Destiny?
This morning, sdp points out:
In 16 playoff games in 2021, the Braves scored 64 runs.
In the 10 playoff games since, the Braves are 2-8, and have scores 24 total runs.
The pitching is an issue, but this offense hasn’t produced in the playoffs in some time.
That’s fair, but just a bit of randomness to consider first: since 2000, 9 teams have scored more runs per game in the playoffs than they scored in the regular season. That’s only 36%, but of course the pitching faced in the playoffs is much better than the pitching faced in the regular season. And of course that doesn’t even consider teams that got hot late in the season.
And Now Timo Asks a Question
In his first two at-bats today, Jake Bauers (who is not being played by Kiefer Sutherland) had 11- and 12-pitch at bats against Martin Pérez culminating in a walk and a homer. timo asks:
How many pitches is the record for a nine-inning game that a hitter has seen?
We don’t have pitch counts going back all that long, and I’m going to do something I think is more informative than an inning count; here’s what I came up with:
The most pitches seen in a game is 55, by Julio Franco in this game. But that was an 18 inning game and Julio had 9 plate appearances, so I don’t think that’s what you meant. The highest average number of pitches seen in a game is 17 by Marty Barrett in this game, but that was only one at-bat — he was a pinch-hitter — so I don’t think that’s what you meant either.
So controlling for the number of plate appearances in a game, here are the most pitches seen:
| Game | Batter | PA | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAN201805280 | Pedro Florimón | 0.0 | 11.0 |
| MIN200709040 | Joe Mauer | 0.0 | 11.0 |
| BOS198906040 | Marty Barrett | 1.0 | 17.0 |
| BOS199108010 | Jody Reed | 2.0 | 22.0 |
| CLE199806260 | Ricky Gutiérrez | 3.0 | 30.0 |
| MIL202206090 | Willy Adames | 4.0 | 37.0 |
| HOU202506290 | Isaac Paredes | 4.0 | 37.0 |
| HOU201606030 | Marcus Semien | 4.0 | 37.0 |
| ARI200109070 | D’Angelo Jimenez | 5.0 | 43.0 |
| CIN201708270 | Joey Votto | 5.0 | 43.0 |
| KCA200304030 | Joe Randa | 6.0 | 47.0 |
| BAL199806190 | Roberto Alomar | 7.0 | 50.0 |
| KCA201207130 | Alejandro De Aza | 8.0 | 49.0 |
| KCA199106060 | Julio Franco | 9.0 | 55.0 |
| PHI201308240 | Tony Campana | 10.0 | 52.0 |
Anyway, controlling for plate appearances makes more sense to me than controlling for game innings.
With 23 pitches seen in his first two PA, Bauers would have had the record if he’s been pulled after two plate appearances. But he struck out on four pitches in the 5th, putting him at 27 pitches in 3 PA. But he still had a chance. Then, on his fourth plate appearance, he flew out on his first pitch. 28 pitches after 4th and final PA.
Names
The Brewers’ pitching coach is named Hook.
The Game
Eventually the Braves will start scoring runs again. I’m on a recap hiatus until that starts.
Williamsport
One more game between these two until they meet in the NLCS. It will be in Williamsport, PA. If they kept the Little league dimensions, the offenses would be really challenged. Could anyone ever hit major league pitching from 46 feet away? I suspect that is well beyond the reaction time of major league batters. A 95 mph fastball with a regular 6 foot extension would have a perceived speed to the batter of around 138 mph. The batter would have to start his swing before the pitcher released the ball.
I’m told, though, that they will be playing on a regulation MLB field, tomorrow night at 7.
Jack Bauer would let this team have it. Tables flipped. Screaming in faces. Let’s go.
Phillies winning again. This might be done by Labor Day.
I’ve read that major league hitters have trouble hitting top women’s softball pitchers (who throw around 70mph, per AI) from 43 feet if they haven’t practiced against them, though I imagine part of the problem is recognizing the ball’s path coming from the different arm motion.
The Phillies have an 8 game winning streak and have moved to within 3 games of first.
Thanks a lot, JonathanF. Very interesting.
Braves offense is really struggling now against string pitching. That does not bode well for the postseason. Feels like MHII is the only reliable bat currently. Gotta get that W tonight.
And I am sure Jim Jarvis is a really nice guy but he should not be in the lineup almost every day. He doesn’t really hit and his defense is not great. Free Kim (I know, likely no improvement but at least gotta try at this point). Or make Dubon the regular SS. Gotta shake things up a little.
Our SS situation is truly ridiculous. Jarvis is terrible, at least mateo could play several positions and run really really fast.
Dubon and Kim at SS, see what happens, this aint working at all.
I think they fell in love with a new toy and may have made a bad decision. The Braves aren’t really in a position to goof around anymore, and Dubon is really the only option.
Not once in my time at Braves Journal have I ever dared to say “I told you so” to Alex Anthopoulos. This is the first. I didn’t understand not sending Jarvis down and giving Kim a chance to do actually do something and we seem to be reaping the rewards of the decision to cut Mateo loose as well. Mateo is now the backup shortstop on a playoff team — exactly what he should be. Eli White used his speed last night to score the walk-off run for another playoff team — exactly what he should be doing as well, though I was explicit at the time that the move to replace him with Lane Thomas was debatable but sensible. The SS situation right now is entirely baffling, and I’ve been baffled by it from the moment it happened, and… I told you so then.
Just to be clear… the error was NOT bringing Kim back. It was bringing him back and not giving him a chance, and not sending (and retaining) Jarvis down while they did so.
Almost like AA is bad at his job.
Should have paid Dansby. It’s a hill I will die on.
Overpaid, streaky, yeah, but he is worlds better than what we’ve suffered with at SS since he left.
Agreed 100% JF. No point in keeping Kim on the roster and cutting Mateo if Kim’s not going to play. And Jarvis clearly isn’t ready and should have been optioned, while Eli could have stayed and made positive contributions when needed. No second guessing here, we said this on Braves Journal before it happened with predictable results.
Chad Bishop says Reylo is making a rehab start for Gwinnett today. Guess he might make a few more rehab starts than usual since they will have to figure out where he will fit, barring injury.
Brewer Hicklen is the 26th man tonight.
Kim is gonna have the walk off hit in the World Series and we’re all gonna have a good laugh.
Boy, when even Jonathan F is calling AA out, you know it’s bad.
Phillies just won on a walk-off. They will win the division. As Andrew (in)famously said, “Count it.”
Let me be clear. I’m completely certain this decison couldn’t be nearly as stupid as it looks. What I don’t know is why it’s not as stupid as it looks.
Michael Soroka to the IL with shoulder inflammation. Poor guy can’t catch a break when he’s going well.
Single, single, double, walk. Just 1 run because the double bounced over the wall, Murphy popped out and Harris K’d. Typical.
The no ABS tonight is annoying. Particularly when the umpire is squeezing both pitchers.
The Braves should move heaven and earth to send Murphy on his way this winter.
They’ll have to eat part of his salary. Framing isn’t as important in the ABS era and that’s his best skill.
Does ESPN have to do an interview while ignoring the game on the field every single half inning? Why even bother carrying games anymore and just do your stupid talk shows 24/7 since clearly that’s what you want to do and let other networks do this.
Ronald just isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed.
But a very powerful tool!
Jumping on my comment from a couple days ago
Tyler Mahle 1.45 ERA, 19 K since the trade deadline (not counting today)
I feel great about the pitching staff. Offense is super-streaky and needs to break this slump.
Mahle has been a great pick up though his first 4 starts. Clearly the #2 right now.
Recap will be in the morning.
Leaky bullpen, bad baserunning, complete offensive void behind the plate with Murphy in the lineup. This team is not good at all right now.