This is a Braves blog, of course, so you might wonder what inspires me to discuss Josh Tomlin’s last three years (2019-2021) in the majors, his time with the Braves in which he accumulated -0.5 WAR, But no. I’m going to discuss his brother from another mother, Mike Tomlin, who left the Pittsburgh Steelers today after compiling a regular season record of 193-114-2 and won a Super Bowl, but even including that magical year, had an overall playoff record of 8-12 and lost his last seven playoff games coached.
Mike Tomlin was in Pittsburgh, and coached football, but he is in many ways the Bobby Cox of football, and he garnered similar loyalty from the guys who played for him. But, like Bobby, he only won it all once and eventually his welcome was worn out and he quit before he was fired. (To be honest, I don’t think Bobby would ever have been fired.)
But c’mon! I watched the Pittsburgh game last night, and Mike Tomlin had about as much chance of winning that game as this blog post does of winning a Ford Frick award. You have a great pass rush against an immobile QB and so the the defense plays close, leaving exactly what theory of offense? You dance with what brung ya, but sometimes what brung ya is a little too drunk on the dance floor to execute the moves. Now I know exactly nothing about the interplay between NFL GMs and coaches, and maybe Tomlin should said: “Don’t give me Rodgers, cos even if we make the playoffs we’re going to get crushed.”
But my real point here is to harp on the crapshoot theory. Getting to the playoffs gives you a chance, but all but one playoff team ends with a loss, and half of them lose in the first round (ignoring technicalities like byes.) And the crapshootiness of baseball is far worse in football, where a single loss is doom. Football has a bigger home field advantage, of course, which mitigates this somewhat, and has nothing like the rotating series of starting pitchers which throw so much uncertainty into baseball, but they call it Any Given Sunday for a reason.
I heard some speculation that the Falcons might be considering Tomlin for their open coaching job. I am not qualified to judge his fit. But what I do know is that an 8-12 playoff record ought to count for nothing.
Back to baseball, and why we should care which set of deep pockets signs Kyle Tucker. I’d pay him myself, but the loss of ad revenue here at Braves Journal diminishes my checkbook, unfortunately.

Tomlin did quite well with the motley collection of QBs he had. It’s hard to get a QB in the NFL unless you tank, and he never did that. He succeeded with the Bucs before succeeding with the Steelers, and I suspect he will succeed at his next stop.
The Falcons are a good bet to make a terrible decision, but so far, I like their decision to promote Rich McKay into irrelevance and install Matt Ryan. I have no idea if Matty Ice is good at this executive thing but I do know he’s sharp and hardworking and he knows something about winning football. I’m hoping for Klint Kubiak but Harbaugh and Tomlin are winners and that counts for a whole lot.
Ultimately if they can’t stop behaving like a losing team (desperate signings, trading away draft picks), they will continue to lose. Thats where a new personality at the top can change the culture. Here’s to hoping.
Hello from the abyss! This is your old pal Ryan C. Sorry I’ve been MIA this past year. I wanted to let you all know that I’ve been lurking about at BJ but haven’t posted. 2025 was the worst year of my life as my father passed, I got the dreaded “cancer” news (bladder cancer…and if you could pick a cancer off of a list, bladder cancer would be the one as most can live a full life with 2-3 small procedures/yearly.)
There are still some starting pitchers out there for the taking, and while Framber Valdez looks like a good target, my guess is AA has 4-5 he’s watching and will wait it out and grab someone on a 1 year deal, similar to Charlie Morton. I’m excited about this 2026 team, and now that 2025 is in the rearview, it was painfully obvious that AA had his hands tied and was told that he couldn’t spend.
Here are my guesses off the top of my head:
1. Chris Bassitt
2. Zac Gallen
3. Jose Quintana
4. Jacob Junis
He could also go the trade route…
Ryan- I am sorry you had the tough 2025 (I lost my father last year as well) but happy to hear you have a great attitude in response to your cancer news and happy that you can manage a long life with this diagnosis. Welcome back!
Sorry to hear, Ryan. My father had bladder cancer years ago and he’s still here with us, so I agree your prognosis is good.
Sorry to hear, Ryan. Wishing you all the strength to get through it well. You are in my thoughts.
Best wishes Ryan.
Welcome back, Ryan. May 2026 bring you completely restored health and a Braves World Series flag.
Should the Braves consider putting Drake Baldwin permanently in the 2 spot?
Consider? Beyond impossibilities, like putting Henry Aaron back in the third spot, I don’t think there’s much they shouldn’t consider.
That said, I have never been much of a batting order guy, not because I think it is unimportant, but because dysfunctional orders reveal themselves pretty quickly. My biggest problem with batting order strategizing is that the important parts of it come from the recognition that players ought to hit differently based on whatever bases/out/score situation they find themselves, but that current hitting thinking doesn’t train anyone to do so (or, what is essentially the same thing, reward them appropriately for doing so.)
So long as everyone just gets to the plate and does the thing they know how to do… usually swing hard… batting order will sort itself out pretty quickly. If we ever sign some sort of second-coming-of-Felix-Millan, I’ll revisit my thinking on this.
Anybody else got thoughts?
What I really like about Drake’s 2025 is that his OPS was nearly the same no matter which side of the plate he was hitting: .818 OPS vs LHP & .808 vs. RHP. His statcast hard hit rate was in the 85th percentile as well. While the Braves hardly ever get credit for their draft picks, they’ve produced so many homegrown players that have made major impacts in Schwellenbach, Strider, Drake, and Holmes (not drafted by Braves, but developed by them).
I don’t disagree with you. I like Drake a lot. All I’m saying is that whether he’s before Olson or after Olson by itself probably doesn’t make much difference. And are we all assuming that the non-stealing Acuña is going to be batting third? Or will he return to leadoff? Also, you seem to be assuming that Drake will DH whenever he isn’t catching. Maybe? There are lots of batting order questions, some of which depend on what sort of player Riley comes back as. The reason I don’t worry about it in January is that it will sort itself out in April, I predict.
(Oh, and I’ve already welcomed you back privately, but WELCOME BACK!)
Ranger Suarez gone to Beantown. 5 years, $130 MM.
You almost get the sense AA ignores my suggestions and just does his own thing.
I liked Suarez because he’s a gamer. An analytical type once told me there’s no such thing and it’s all in my head and players are just RNGs, but it sure seems like Suarez is better in the playoffs than Clayton Kershaw or Max Fried and the samples on those things aren’t that small. Ah well, at least he is off the Phillies and out of the NL. We won’t face him until the World Series, and I suspect we’ll have a game plan by then.
Tomlin didn’t have a franchise QB after Big Ben retired. Can’t really win in the postseason without either an elite QB or elite defense.
$60 million per annum is just the going rate for an outfielder who hit .260 with 20 bombs.
https://x.com/colincowherd/status/2012148201982468409?s=20
I hate to say it, but Cowherd is right here. If they want to spend $60M on a player, then the Yankees probably can too. And if they want to pay Tucker $60M, then they can knock themselves out. Will Smith is their 5th hole hitter. Max Muncy is getting old. Tommy Edman had a 82 OPS+ last year.
In their rotation, Ohtani, Snell, and Glasnow are no locks to make 30 starts, let alone 25. Snell has averaged 22 starts the last 5 seasons, and he turns 33 this year. Glasnow has never even made 25 starts in his entire career. Their bullpen is good but has holes too.
I guess I’m just not ready to cancel the season just yet…
After much thought, I’d like to see Chris Bassitt on a 2 year deal. He’s been a consistent mid rotation starter that can keep a team with a good offense in the game. 2 yr/$32 MM should do it.
I also just found out the Braves are trying to trade for a SP, but I don’t know who that actually is… fingers crossed.
My guess is Peralta but I hope we would extend him if we trade Ritchie for him. I’m fine with Bassitt. Get er done.
Sorry about your health scare and I wish you a full recovery. 2026 will be a good year for everyone but Alec Bohm.
Peralta makes a ton of sense too. You can clear out some of your SP prospect glut, and he doesn’t make much at all.
Rumor has it that the Braves are interested in trading for Alcantara. My guess is they’re interested in a lot of SP trade targets but Alcanatara is the “fancy” name of the week.
Alcantara is on-brand. We do love those reclamation projects. Some turn out to be Chris Sale. Others turn out to be Cole Hamels.
I adore Alcantara and I would love to buy low on him. He’s yours for 2 years for cheap and he may not cost as much as Peralta in prospects. The velocity is still there. If he rebounds at all it’s amazing value.
That sound you heard was the balloon bursting of any hope that Ronald Acuna might wear only one uniform.
Although, to be fair, as much as I love him, his health terrifies me.
Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers… 4 yrs/$240 M.
The modern Dodgers make the ’70s Yankees look like the Bad News Bears.
Bo Bichette to the Mets… 3 yrs/$126 M… what position is he playing? I guess he & Lindor share SS & DH.
Sounds like Bichette will play 3b for the first time in his career
Well, they still have the rights to Bobby Bonilla, so anticipate a spring training showdown.
Lol, JonathanF.
Baseball fans are funny.
First they complain owners don’t spend enough money.
Then when they do, they complain that players like Joey Votto and Miguel Cabrera won’t be worth their contracts at the end of these insane deals.
Then the owners increase the AAV, shorten the length, and then fans complain about the AAV saying the player is “not worth that”.
Meanwhile, no one cares that teams like the Pirates and Marlins got free stadiums on the tax payer’s dimes and are fielding AAA rosters.
I’m sure I complain about something that I can’t remember right now, but I try not to complain about any of this. I don’t care how owners spend money, how owners don’t spend money, and which municipalities they fleece for stadium deals because those municipalities are complicit in the stupidity. All I care about is whether the team I was born geographically closest to wins the World Series every year, as God intended! And then the next thing I care about is if the team I now live geographically closest to also wins the World Series every year, as God intended!
Everyone just wants their team to win and they complain when it seems unfair to their team. If we had a $500MM payroll and had just signed Kyle Tucker to something ridiculous none of us would be complaining. Now if one team can afford a payroll that is double ours and signs all the free agents, it seems hard to compete.
There’s a lot of commentary online criticizing fans for begrudging athletes their pay or “whining” about how an owner spends his money but it’s just that simple. People want their team to have the good players and win the rings. I doubt many people actually care about the exact number of millions in a contract or how a billionaire owner spends his money otherwise.
My problem is that salaries are becoming unmoored from reality.
The Dodgers are paying Tucker $60M a year because, **** you, they can do it.There’s no baseball reason for paying Tucker that amount of money per year.
Now you have Aaron Judge on a bargain contract of $40M a year, a first ballot hall of famer. He’d get a billion dollars in this market. At least he would be worth it.
And yet they still have holes. I know they’ve won back-to-back championships, but they’re definitely beatable. That’s what’s annoying about crowning them champions every offseason. The Phillies lost their 3 games to them in the NLDS by a total of 4 runs and had the higher run differential. The Jays took them to 7 games, and 3 of the Dodgers’ wins were by a total of 4 runs as well. If they were steamrolling teams, sure, I think people would be justifiably going crazy. But that’s just not the case. I’d throw a healthy Sale-Schwellenbach-Strider-Waldrep (one time through the lineup) against them in a short series with Suarez-Iglesias-Lee-Lopez-Bummer in the pen. I don’t think their lineup is good enough to beat that. I’d love to see which of their 20-start pitchers are actually healthy come next October.
Teams just need to worry about themselves. The Mets’ lineup is hot dog shit and there are plenty of bats out there that they’ll say no to. They’ll let Bellinger go to their cross-town rivals. Marcell Ozuna is still available, probably for as little as $12M per. That’s a no brainer for multiple teams, but they’re out there trying to score a deal on these guys. Teams need to spend money and beat the damn Dodgers.
Rob, you spend a lot of time policing the opinions of other people. It’s a perplexing habit. There’s a political meme where someone says “why are you so obsessed with X” as a way of avoiding an argument. That’s what you’re reminding me of.
Stampton, I have neither a badge nor a gun, so I’m certainly not trying to police anything. However, I do enjoy providing rebuttals to major talking points in my favorite sport, and this website has been known for having offseason discussions to pass the time. I humbly request your permission to continue to do so. Please advise.
Now if I can get the Falcons to trade for Watson, my diabolical plan to transform them into the Browns of the south will be complete!
Kim out till mid May at least, we are starting early with the BS this year it seems.
It’s the only way to beat this team.
Dubon can fill in without much drop off. If he’s back by mid-June, this is manageable. But yeah, how do you lose your $20 million starting shortstop in January?
Apt analysis, stampton. Apt.
Stand back… in response, we’ve signed IF/OF Jorge Mateo.
Dubon is a more than capable fill-in for Kim for a couple months, and Mateo is a more than capable fill-in for Dubon for a couple of months. AA has done so much better this offseason vs. last offseason. Mets and Phils fans are pissed, but our GM has responded to the market and icy situations that have been thrown at him (get it?!) really well.
Yup, fill-ins.
Neither guy can really hit worth a damn. But, compared to Nick Allen, they look like Jimmie Foxx.
I wonder if we’ve ever signed 3 players that were acquired to conceivably start at one position in the same offseason. Dubon was traded for to potentially start at SS if they couldn’t land a bigger fish, Kim was obviously signed to start at SS, and Mateo will undoubtedly start at SS at some point before Kim returns, all in one offseason.
In the last 12 months, the Braves have drafted 3 SS with their top 3 picks, their top international signee was a SS, spent $20M on one FA shortstop, $1M on another FA shortstop, and traded for another making $6.1M. You can’t say they’re not trying hard to fix this blackhole.
Agreed on Atlanta’s effort to fix the issue at shortstop. The thing about drafting shortstops is if they can play SS they can usually play any position on the field and if they can hit and play ss they are worth a fortune. If they can’t hit that well they often end up as utility players like Dubon and Mateo. If all we do is target shortstops and pitchers, I’m pretty good with that – especially since catcher looks to be in good shape.
Even though he is overpaid, re-signing Dansby Swanson would have avoided all this mess at shortstop.
Is Swanson overpaid now?
He was really never overpaid. Atlanta just clearly thought they could replace him for less, and that’s blown up in their face.
2023: 4.8 fWAR
2024: 4.2
2025: 3.3
So averaged out, he’s been a 4 fWAR player per year for $28M per year. Meanwhile, we’re trying to get 4 WAR for around $27M this year.
With that said, he graded out less than elite defensively this past year. I wonder if that’s an outlier of a sign of declining athleticism.
Andruw!! Finally.