What Are You?
Much digital ink has been spilled assessing the Bill Parcells Dictum: You Are What Your Record Says You Are. Allow me to spill just a tiny bit more. Through 61 games, the Braves are 27-34. This is not merely disappointing; it is pretty much disastrous. There are no shortage of explanations, all of which contribute:
- An abysmal lack of offense, with subparts:
- A collapse in power
- Baserunning errors
- Truly epic failures with runners in scoring position
- Acquisitions on drug suspension
- A closer who can’t close, a bullpen that can’t hold leads, an ace starter still getting warmed up
- A manager who occasionally has no knowledge of what went on out there
- Global Warming
- New Management at Braves Journal
But what does any of this foretell? Let’s start with 1961, the year that moved us to 162 games, and ignore the strike/plague years of 1994, 1995 and 2020. With 101 games to go, here are all the teams that were 27-34, sorted by their record for the remainder of the season:
| Team | Season | Win | Loss | Tie | Playoff Games | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | ||||||
| 1 | MIN | 2006 | 69 | 32 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | LAN | 2013 | 65 | 36 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | SEA | 2022 | 63 | 38 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | TOR | 1989 | 62 | 39 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | ANA | 2006 | 62 | 39 | 0 | |
| 6 | PIT | 1974 | 61 | 40 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | HOU | 2024 | 61 | 39 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | NYA | 1984 | 60 | 41 | 0 | |
| 9 | SFN | 1982 | 60 | 41 | 0 | |
| 10 | CHA | 1961 | 59 | 42 | 1 | |
| 11 | CHA | 2003 | 59 | 42 | 0 | |
| 12 | BOS | 1972 | 58 | 36 | 0 | |
| 13 | ATL | 1966 | 58 | 43 | 1 | |
| 14 | CHN | 2007 | 58 | 43 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | SDN | 1978 | 57 | 44 | 0 | |
| 16 | TOR | 1999 | 57 | 44 | 0 | |
| 17 | KCA | 1984 | 57 | 44 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | ATL | 1980 | 54 | 46 | 0 | |
| 19 | PIT | 1973 | 53 | 48 | 0 | |
| 20 | KCA | 2017 | 53 | 48 | 0 | |
| 21 | PHI | 2002 | 53 | 47 | 0 | |
| 22 | PIT | 1987 | 53 | 48 | 0 | |
| 23 | WAS | 2011 | 53 | 47 | 0 | |
| 24 | HOU | 1970 | 52 | 49 | 0 | |
| 25 | NYA | 1972 | 52 | 42 | 0 | |
| 26 | FLO | 2000 | 52 | 48 | 0 | |
| 27 | MIN | 2018 | 51 | 50 | 0 | |
| 28 | BAL | 2004 | 51 | 50 | 0 | |
| 29 | BOS | 2015 | 51 | 50 | 0 | |
| 30 | SLN | 2007 | 51 | 50 | 0 | |
| 31 | TOR | 2002 | 51 | 50 | 0 | |
| 32 | NYN | 2018 | 50 | 51 | 0 | |
| 33 | SDN | 2014 | 50 | 51 | 0 | |
| 34 | MIA | 2017 | 50 | 51 | 0 | |
| 35 | BOS | 1962 | 49 | 50 | 0 | |
| 36 | CIN | 1966 | 49 | 50 | 0 | |
| 37 | CHN | 1996 | 49 | 52 | 0 | |
| 38 | SEA | 2015 | 49 | 52 | 0 | |
| 39 | SDN | 2000 | 49 | 52 | 0 | |
| 40 | SEA | 1998 | 49 | 51 | 0 | |
| 41 | SDN | 1997 | 49 | 52 | 0 | |
| 42 | SEA | 2012 | 48 | 53 | 0 | |
| 43 | MON | 1975 | 48 | 53 | 0 | |
| 44 | MON | 1977 | 48 | 53 | 0 | |
| 45 | OAK | 2009 | 48 | 53 | 0 | |
| 46 | CHN | 2010 | 48 | 53 | 0 | |
| 47 | TEX | 1987 | 48 | 53 | 0 | |
| 48 | SFN | 1977 | 48 | 53 | 0 | |
| 49 | DET | 1977 | 47 | 54 | 0 | |
| 50 | TOR | 2013 | 47 | 54 | 0 | |
| 51 | SEA | 1985 | 47 | 54 | 0 | |
| 52 | OAK | 1998 | 47 | 54 | 0 | |
| 53 | OAK | 2011 | 47 | 54 | 0 | |
| 54 | CIN | 1983 | 47 | 54 | 0 | |
| 55 | BAL | 2000 | 47 | 54 | 0 | |
| 56 | PIT | 1996 | 46 | 55 | 0 | |
| 57 | PHI | 1970 | 46 | 54 | 0 | |
| 58 | ATL | 2017 | 45 | 56 | 0 | |
| 59 | CHA | 2007 | 45 | 56 | 0 | |
| 60 | KCA | 2012 | 45 | 56 | 0 | |
| 61 | CLE | 1972 | 45 | 50 | 0 | |
| 62 | WAS | 2024 | 44 | 57 | 0 | |
| 63 | BOS | 2014 | 44 | 57 | 0 | |
| 64 | CHA | 1988 | 44 | 56 | 0 | |
| 65 | NYN | 1996 | 44 | 57 | 0 | |
| 66 | NYA | 1991 | 44 | 57 | 0 | |
| 67 | MON | 1991 | 44 | 56 | 0 | |
| 68 | SDN | 2011 | 44 | 57 | 0 | |
| 69 | MIN | 1998 | 43 | 58 | 0 | |
| 70 | CLE | 1983 | 43 | 58 | 0 | |
| 71 | TBA | 2004 | 43 | 57 | 0 | |
| 72 | MON | 1972 | 43 | 52 | 0 | |
| 73 | PIT | 2000 | 42 | 59 | 0 | |
| 74 | MIL | 1993 | 42 | 59 | 0 | |
| 75 | SDN | 1977 | 42 | 59 | 0 | |
| 76 | CLE | 1978 | 42 | 56 | 0 | |
| 77 | COL | 2015 | 41 | 60 | 0 | |
| 78 | SDN | 1979 | 41 | 59 | 0 | |
| 80 | MIN | 1997 | 41 | 60 | 0 | |
| 81 | COL | 2022 | 41 | 60 | 0 | |
| 82 | CHA | 1969 | 41 | 60 | 0 | |
| 83 | TOR | 2004 | 40 | 60 | 0 | |
| 84 | BAL | 1987 | 40 | 61 | 0 | |
| 85 | CHA | 1968 | 40 | 61 | 0 | |
| 86 | NYN | 1980 | 40 | 61 | 0 | |
| 87 | ATL | 1985 | 39 | 62 | 0 | |
| 88 | SDN | 2018 | 39 | 62 | 0 | |
| 89 | NYN | 2003 | 39 | 61 | 0 | |
| 90 | KCA | 2009 | 38 | 63 | 0 | |
| 91 | SE1 | 1969 | 37 | 64 | 1 | |
| 92 | CHA | 2013 | 36 | 65 | 0 |
92 teams is a larger sample that I though I’d have — I was prepared to shade the win requirements a bit, but I really don’t have to. What a motley collection of teams, but what a wide range of results, from the 96-win Twins in 2006 to the 99-loss White Sox of 2013.
I had forgotten that the 1966 Braves, the team that still makes me tear up a little bit when i think about them, was one of these teams, and had a very repectable record in their last 101 of 58-43-1. The total of 85 wins still wouldn’t make the playoffs today, but it was enjoyable baseball to watch. At the other end, the 1985 Braves (final record 66-96) were not much fun to watch — new manager Eddie Haas was fired in his first season as manager and the dreaded Chuck Tanner years were to follow. I think Eddie Haas is the only manager ever to have been fired in his first season as a manager, but I’m still trying to find a counterexample. (Obviously, plenty of interim managers weren’t rehired, but Haas was hired at the beginning of the 1985 season and fired 121 games in. Bobby Wine finished up the season and was replaced by Tanner.) [note: I’ve now found a number of other examples, so Eddie is not the only manager to be fired in his first year…. but there aren’t a lot of them.]
Of these 92, teams, only 18 won the 54 games required to get to 0.500. The 1980 Braves were the only team to get back exactly to 0.500.
More importantly, Crapshoot season. 8 of these teams made the playoffs, for around a 10 percent chance. Some of these teams, however, were really lucky to do so — looking at you, 1984 Royals and 2007 Cubs. 84 or 85 wins is going to see you fishing at the end of the season this year.
Finally, lest you think this is all in the distant past, last year’s Astros were 27-34. They didn’t get very far in the playoffs, but they got there. Maybe Rafael Montero has some secrets he wants to tell us about.
I know we’re all depressed now, and this season seems like it’s going to suck. I hope the above demonstrates it doesn’t have to…. though odds are it will.
What Is To Be Done?
Beyond the preparation of a number of rockets for solar excursions, I depend on all of you for this. That’s what the comments are for.
Tonight
Game 62 in San Francisco tonight. (Boy, that must have a great transcontinental flight yesterday….) It’s Friday night, which is Shabbos, so it’s Spencer Schwellenbach on the mound against Hayden Birdsong (not to be confused with Otis, who’s my age.) First guy to tweet Birdsong loses.
Repost from last thread. Honestly I think we’ll have a pretty good idea by the end of the month whether we will contend for the wild card spot or for a high draft pick.
We lost our first 7 in a row against two pretty good teams on the road- Padres and Dodgers. That was concerning but not devastating. We’ve won 1 of our last 6 games at home against the Red Sox who just lost 5 in a row, and the Dbacks, who were 2 and 9 before coming to Atlanta. This has been devastating
I agree. We’re still in it, and an 8-2 streak really changes the look of things, but a 2-8 streak seems to close the book. This team doesn’t have the starting rotation depth to run off 2 months of .700 baseball like the 2021 team.
I hope to be fast asleep by the time the game starts tonight, which I have found greatly increases my enjoyment of the games above baseline.
RE: Stampton and the rotation
We went into the season hoping Sale, Strider, Schwellenbach, Lopez, AJSS, Elder, Ian Anderson, and maybe even Waldrep (8 pitchers) could form a rotation. And they wanted a competition for the 5th spot. If we signed a Jose Quintana or Flaherty, there would have been no competition. And at the time, I was fine with penciling in Sale, Strider, Schwellenbach, and Lopez into 1-4, and then letting Elder, AJSS, Ian, and whomever duke it out for the 5th spot. The only issue with this was that Lopez was almost doomed to never be able to repeat last year, and Strider is also a perennial health question mark. And of course, Lopez went down immediately.
I do agree, however, that we could have absolutely added to the pen with all sorts of cheap, middle reliever options. That’s 100% on AA. And he ended up doing it immediately with Montero, so that was terrible, terrible foresight.
Assuming our top 4 would all be healthy was the problem. If you could guarantee me the health of the top 4, I would agree that adding a 5th wasn’t a top priority but Sale, Lopez, and Strider had all finished the previous season injured and we knew for a fact Strider wouldn’t be back right away. It didn’t require great foresight to imagine we’d need another arm in the rotation.
I think the starting rotation is pretty much the only part of the team that has met expectations. Even with Lopez and AJSS going down and Strider struggling.
Ballgame.
Andy Fletcher is having a rough night behind the plate.
Kimbrel is sitting 90-92. Yikes. Fortunately the Giants got a runner thrown out stealing and another picked off.
Recap tomorrow
Recapped