It’s pretty extraordinary that our Atlanta Braves lost Spencer Strider right out the gate and were still 3rd in the league in pitching ERA (3.58). The Mariners and the Royals were the only 2 teams that outpaced them. With phenomenal performances from Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Max Fried, Spencer Schwellenbach, and swingman Grant Holmes, the Braves starting staff showed glimpses of the glory years. Charlie Morton was his normal, steady self, providing league average numbers while leading the team in starts.
The Depth (or lack thereof)
Outside of the above 6, the Braves sent 7 other pitchers for the first pitch of the game, and overall it was a dumpster fire:
- Bryce Elder: 10 GS, 6.52 ERA
- Ray Kerr: 2 GS, 5.64 ERA
- Spencer Strider: 2 GS, 7,00 ERA
- Darius Vines: 2 GS, 8.56 ERA
- Hurston Waldrep: 2 GS, 16.71 ERA
- Allan Winans: 2 GS, 15.26 ERA
- AJ Smith-Shawver: 1 GS, 0.00 ERA
While I believe in the skillsets of Kerr, Strider, Waldrep, and A.S.S., the rest are seemingly just org filler, and will continue to ride the AAA/MLB shuffle to provide rest for the rotation when entering the sweaty months.
Is There Help From the Farm?
Both Shawver and Waldrep could prove worthy of a promotion at any point, but it’s going to take adding another pitch for Waldrep and a clean bill of health and regular reps for A.S.S.
The Braves top prospects list is full of starting pitching, and good ones at that. However, it’s anyone’s guess as to when they’ll be deemed ready to compete for a regular spot in the rotation. While the names we all know in guys like Owen Murphy (recovering from TJS), J.R. Ritchie, Waldrep and A.S.S. could see some starts, the one to keep an eye on is probably Drue Hackenberg, who had a meteoric rise through the farm. While the high profile names get most of the attention, no one would’ve predicted that Spencer Schwellenbach would be the first to get promoted and stick when there were so many names seemingly ahead of him.
Will the Braves Add a SP?
I think the answer is yes. They could just convince Charlie Morton to stick around 1 more year, which would give them starts and provide immediate depth for the team. However, I feel like a need for need trade could happen. Jorge Soler‘s skillset just doesn’t work with this team and the Braves could utilize his contract to make an equal swap. However, one free agent starter to keep an eye on could be Matthew Boyd, who had a rebound year and could be had for cheap on a 1-2 year deal.
You don’t mention Ian Anderson or Huascar Ynoa. Have you given up on both of them? If AA has not given up on either of them, does that modify your opinion that we need somebody (at least, relative to any other needs?)
Also, tell me what you mean by an “equal swap?” A roughly league-average pitcher who’s owed about $30 million? Can you give me an example?
Apologies on leaving Ian and Boxcar out. It was unintentional. I discussed that in an edit to the post.
As for the “equal swap”, you kind of nailed it. Yes, a veteran presence that could eat innings and sit at the back of the rotation. While I did type it, I didn’t research a pitcher that would fit that bill, but someone like Sonny Gray or Tyler Anderson come to mine. Both would likely take more than Soler.
Ynoa at 96 on the 4 seamer and 88 on the slider was deadly. Taking 3 or 4 mph off, leaves him barely above useless. Certainly useless for a starting pitcher.
Anderson has also lost velocity, but I perceive he has more chance of getting it back.
What about seeing if Uncle Charlie would do a 7 million contract to who up at Northport (20 minutes from his house) on June 1 to start a “spring training routine” to add to the rotation depth on July 15? That way, he can be at home for more time and that is awfully good insurance for a starting pitcher injury.
I sure didn’t have Schwellenbach on my becomes-a legit -4th-pushing-3rd-starter bingo card.
I would say legit 4 and pushing 3 might be even low for how he performed. I would say with more of a sample size he would be legit 3rd pushing #2.
Me neither!
Repeating myself from last off-season’s prospect list:
Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP, 24, A+, 2025
“In his first season back from Tommy John, Schwellenbach was initially treated with kid gloves and didn’t see the 5th inning of a start until the last day of May. The giddyup on his fastball returned but has thus far not resulted in strikeouts possibly because the team was severely limiting his slider usage to protect the elbow. The pitch had excellent metrics as to spin and movement. Scouts remain impressed and the development staff is extremely pleased with his progress. Still likely a reliever in the end but they will give him every opportunity as a starter first.”
And then the kid took about 4 giant steps forward (he developed the splitter during his stint in the majors!). A 124 ERA+, 3.35 era, 3.36 xera, 3.29 fip, 3.36 xfip is incredibly consistent and indicative of a strong #2 with only his innings being a little short of what you want from your #2. If he can throw 180 innings this year he will be in the Cy Young conversation.
New hitting coach:
https://apnews.com/article/atlanta-braves-hitting-coach-3fe9a3ec898b115b12e771bf9fb14747
This seems like a great hire, but I would certainly look to other people to tell me otherwise.
Ryan, I’m going to push back on our depth being a dumpster fire. Only 4 teams had 4 guys make 25 starts like us, and one of them was the Nationals only because they’re paying Patrick Corbin a boat load of money. Only 3 teams had 5 guys make 20 starts the way we had. So I’m going to assume that when teams barely have guys to fill out their rotation consistently, their depth is wayyyy worse than ours.
I know I beat this drum a lot, but if your team has 4-5 guys who consistently make starts for you, you’re farther ahead than about 25 teams in baseball.