When the Braves added Jarred Kelenic to the team prior to the 2024 season, I thought the price was pretty high, but I loved the pedigree. The problem in that thinking is that I once believed that Kevin Seitzer could fix anyone that was broken. However, 2024 really humbled my confidence, and now that Seitzer is gone, my confidence wanes and Kelenic’s track record doesn’t bode well for the offense. Obviously, Kelenic is on part of the plan but it was assumed that he would be part of the solution for quite awhile.
In today’s piece, we will dissect what it will take for this outfield to get back to where it belongs and that ever sought after word is health.
Braves Outfield Depth Chart
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Michael Harris II
- Jorge Soler
- Jarred Kelenic
- Eli White
- Ramon Laureano (arb-eligible)
Don’t look for help from the farm as there’s nothing remotely close to an MLB ready outfielder. If Acuña can’t go at the first of the season, I’d expect to see a platoon in LF/RF (Soler will play RF at home and LF away). However, I fully expect Alex to do some serious shopping for a good OFer and look to trade Jorge Soler in a need for need swap. Alex (our Alex) discussed his dream of acquiring Juan Soto, but that’s going to take at least $300MM, as he’s only 25 and might be the 2nd best hitter in the game. For me, Anthony Santander seems more like who AA would target in free agency, as he’s a power bat that’s been overlooked on his own team. Also, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Whit Merrifield enter the chat and be a fill-in option at 3B, LF, and RF.
Free Agent Outfielders that Could Help
While Juan Soto is on every team’s list, there are other high quality players that the Braves could use in the outfield, should AA decide to make a move there. Here’s some of note:
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Tyler O’Neill
- Jurickson Profar
- Anthony Santander
- Max Kepler
- Harrison Bader
- Jesse Winker
Every one of these make some sort of sense for the Braves, but I’d like to see a real LH thumper and Santander fits that description at what should be an affordable price. Still, AA seems to surprise us all and, for the most part, it has worked out. Unfortunately, as AAR discussed, some moves didn’t work out this year.
Thoughts on outside additions?
I like Santander as well and would love to see AA add him. In regard to Kelenic, I think it was super telling that he hardly played the last 3 or 4 weeks of the season when we hitched our train to Soler and Laureano instead of trotting him out there. That doesn’t seem to bode well for his future in Atlanta.
The Kelenic trade was very clever but it’s been a waste of time and resources. I hope the team gets a proper 4th outfielder and has him start in the minors. He’s probably a finished product at this point but it’s worth a shot. Worst case, he doesn’t improve his plate approach and you still have a 4th outfielder with solid defense and some power for 2026 and beyond.
You could argue Duvall’s collapse made him look worse because he had to play against lefties more than they planned but it’s not like he was that great against RH pitchers either (95 wrC+). He also had a 29% rate against righties. Even in a platoon he’s basically unplayable.
*29% K rate
Kelenic is what he is, 670 OPS guy. He has had enough time in the majors, 4th OF kind of guy. AA made lots of cute moves to land a backup OF.
I would still like to see what happens to Kelenic if he flattens his launch angle. Hitting homers was a great strategy in recent years, but there is a tradeoff. And when the ball isn’t flying quite like it was, the tradeoff becomes more negative. Same goes for Murphy and Arcia. Kelenic is toolsy enough that I am not ready to totally give up on him, but I’m not willing to bank on him being better than a 1.5 WAR guy either.
What we should obviously do is sign Soto for whatever he asks and enjoy the prime decade of one of the all time best hitters. As long as he stays healthy, he’s a steal.
You are probaby right about Soto, He would cure a ton of ills for this team.
AA, get it done 🙂
Honestly, Kelenic’s biggest problem for me is he has a terrible plate approach. He cannot control the strike zone, and I think a lot of it is confidence-based. He actually posted the worst walk rate of his career this season, and a truly terrible contact rate of 68.8%, compared to the MLB average of 76.8%, and significantly worse than his own previous career mark around 71%. In particular, nearly 30% of the pitches he swung at were outside the strike zone, and he made contact with about 40% of them – the major league average O-Contact rate is 56%.
He was getting himself out by making really poor swing decisions.
I’m guessing that there are a couple of different things going on. I think his mechanics got out of whack – which wouldn’t be surprising, as that often happens during prolonged slumps when players are pressing. And I think his confidence plummeted, as we learned that he’s a very emotional player who can struggle with feeling the weight of expectations.
Obviously this is an armchair diagnosis, but I think he needs to spend the offseason working with a sports psychologist who can help him get to a point where the game is fun again, and where he can learn how to stay confident in his abilities and his game. Then he’s got to work with a coach who can help him stay in his mechanics. Again, as much as he struggled in Seattle, he walked more, made more contact, and swung at fewer pitches outside the zone. That tells me that a lot of his problems are between his ears. That doesn’t mean that it’ll be easy, but I still think there’s a ballplayer in there.
Clearly, the Braves coaching staff struggled with a lot of their hitters this year. One of the biggest challenges the new hitting coach (or hitting coaches) will face will be helping Jarred Kelenic finally unlock his potential. And I think it’s worth it. As a true center fielder with real power, he’s got a lot he can offer to a team, and if he could hit enough to stay on the field he could easily produce 2-3 WAR. He’s still just 25, the farm system is thin, and he’s a highly talented low-cost outfielder. I think it’s worth doing all we can to help him get better.
Agreed with everything you said, Alex.
I think Uncle Steve from Queens may have already written the Pay-to-the-Order part of that check. The numbers will come later…
This year, I’ve had the privilege of watching Soto closer than I ever have before and, on a day-to-day basis, he is one of the most impressive offensive players I’ve ever seen.
Yes, he bats in front of Judge, but most importantly, he has that Pete Rose trait: He never, ever gives up an AB. Every AB is a deep personal struggle. Every AB is a test of his own manhood. His level of confidence & competitiveness can be completely intimidating. Even if you get him out, it seems as if he leaves some pitchers unsettled from the experience.
Ain’t gonna happen, but it’s still fun to imagine Acuna (27) & Soto (26) hitting B2B for awhile.
Back to reality, yes, Santander (30) sounds interesting. We’d have another low-OBP/less-than-great OF defender, but he’s a switch-hitting masher.
Soler actually hits LHP as well as Santander, so I would probably just stick with Soler over Santander. O’Neill hits LHP really well, so if you wanted to upgrade, he’d be the move.
If Kelenic could muster a .775 OPS, he could be a 2.5-3 fWAR LF for very little.
I just don’t know how much of an educated opinion I can have without knowing who the hitting coach will be. If there’s confidence the lineup could return to 2023 performance, then I would like to run Kelenic back.
Laureano produced 1.3 WAR in 225 PAs for us. That was a big reason we made the playoffs. He could be the best 4th OF and injury insurance in baseball, but I wonder if we are wiling to pay what he will command through arbitration. And for his career, he has been a fair bit better against LHP. So if we need a LHP thumper, maybe look within.
Do you just platoon Laureano and Kelenic in LF, deal Soler, and ride?
Laureano had a .380 BABIP over that time, though. I don’t think there’s much chance that he repeats that, and if he were to come back down to his pre-2024 career BABIP of .309, he’d immediately return to being the replacement player who got waived by the
GuardiansAthletics, one of the worst teams in baseball. His salary last year was $5.15 million, and while I imagine that we’ll tender him a new contract in recognition of how terrifically he played over the last few months, I wouldn’t count on him both beginning and ending the year in an Atlanta uniform.Maybe Laureano will be the next Duvall or Chavez. Trade or let him walk; get him back … repeat 2 to 3 times. I think we’ve seen the last of both Duvall and Chavez, unless Uncle Jesse comes back as a player coach (just kidding).
I could see Jesse settling down with his family in Atlanta and being a coach on the staff. He seems to love the baseball life.
Not sure if this was posted here, but this is how his seemingly final outing begins. Can’t help but get a little emotion along with him. https://x.com/MinSub4/status/1844793624803913975
Thanks for sharing that, Rob. Definitely emotional. It was a good run, Jesse.