I’m stepping in for some last-minute game thread duties, so I hope JonathanF and the rest of you will forgive me for the thinness of the methodology behind the following comparison:
Chris Sale is Alex Anthopolous’s new Josh Donaldson.
Both are bearded Florida-born Southerners in their mid-30s who in their twenties were among the three or four best players in their league, whose checkered injury history started shortly after they turned 30, making them available on a very short-term basis at a quite reasonable AAV, but whose underlying components when healthy suggested that their talent had not yet been unduly diminished by Father Time nor by the extensive doctor’s bills.
When we signed Josh Donaldson, I wrote a rapturous piece, concluding: “The Braves don’t need Donaldson to be Mr. Right. They just need him to be Mr. Right Now. Truly, I don’t think they could have done any better.” I think it held up extraordinarily well. (Far better than my vain requests that the team re-sign him.) I was thinking of writing a similar piece about Sale, but lacked the courage of my convictions.
Screw it. Chris Sale is legit. While he never won the Cy Young, unlike Donaldson, who was the 2015 MVP, Sale’s peak was far longer than Donaldson’s – Donaldson is a four-time All-Star with three top-four MVP finishes and one 8th-place finish; Sale is a seven-time All-Star with four top-four Cy Young finishes and three other seasons in which he finished fifth or sixth. When Donaldson joined the Braves, he had roughly 35 career WAR; Sale had 47 heading into the 2023 offseason.
The Braves control Sale for two more seasons past this one; he only turned 35 two weeks ago, and his fastball has as much life as ever.
Furthermore – take this with a grain of salt, but:
Sale’s current average fastball velocity is higher than it was the last few years, though to be fair, average fastball velo does tend to dip over the course of a long season. His 10.97 K/9 is also nearly identical to the 11.06 K/9 he has posted over the course of his career; his 1.69 BB/9 is actually *better* than his career average. His BABIP is also higher than average, but his homer rate and strand rate are both lower than average. Nothing in his numbers suggests that regression to the mean would necessarily entail *worse* performance.
Naturally, it’s ludicrous to analyze 10 2/3 innings to this degree, however: the Atlanta Braves starting pitcher who has been wearing a Chris Sale jersey has also been pitching, inarguably, like Chris Sale.
[/spurious analysis]
The Braves have had some experience with high-velocity strikeout pitchers aging gracefully, from John Smoltz to Charlie Morton. We are way too early to draw any conclusions about anything and all the normal caveats apply to anyone who earns his living by throwing a baseball off the mound.
However! Today, Chris Sale will be throwing baseballs against the Marlins! What could be better than that?
Excelsior!
Positive assessments based on 10 innings require no tergiversation. Only the negative assessments do.
Thank you!
Also thank you for teaching me a new word. I had to Google to learn what it means: “The act of tergiversating.”
Jarred – what a catch! Man, this kid can play.
A little less good by Kelenic there, but a phenomenal double play by Arcia. Sale has not been excellent, but to my eyes, he’s been victimized more by doinks than by ropes.
Runners on base every inning… gotta get a 2-out hit somewhere.
Still, nice to see RAJ really pop the ball there. Hope he’s finally finding his power stroke.
I swear every time we walk someone they score
Vintage Sale, this is not.
This one’s on me.
Well, Sale did give us 7 IP, which is much appreciated, I’m sure. It’s been a rough week for the bullpen.
OK, let’s make this interesting…
The walk that led to the final three runs was aided by two bad calls, so I’m giving Sale a pass on that one.
This is not the first time this year that the Braves have been victimized by more bad calls than the opposite team especially balls and strikes. Did you see Sale’s reaction? Two bad calls in the same batter led to the last two walks. Kranitz had to go out to keep him from pouncing on the ump.
The Marlins still might have won 2-1. One run scored is never gonna cut it. Everyone seemed to be swinging at pitches off the plate.
I have said it before and it bears repeating. It seems like the Braves don’t consistently win until Acuna is hitting and getting on base. I also think that Acuna acted a lot like this when he was protecting his knee year before last. He only went wild when he had 100% confidence in his knee. That scare in Spring Training may have left a lasting impression.
It’s twice this year we have let bad teams playing badly get up off the mat. First the Mets now the Marlins.
Three times, Roger , white Sox too
If nothing else, some of the defense last night was pretty solid, Kelenic’s error notwithstanding. I loved rewatching Arcia’s play in the 7th — starting deep in the hole at SS, charging in and to his left, picking it on the short hop, and immediately firing a bullet to get the runner at first by half a step. Beautiful play.
Recap and game thread up