Profar away
Doesn’t anybody want to see the Braves win of late
It would be so fine to see your bat at the plate
Doesn’t help to know you’re just locked awayTwo years ago we signed you and you screwed us good
Another chance in 26 to work in the hood
Oh, how I wish you could
But you’re Profar awayOne more song about discipline Manfred’s way
Can’t say much of anything that’s new
If I could only work baseball out my way
I wouldn’t spend a dime on bums like youBut you’re Profar away
Doesn’t anybody want to see the Braves win of late
It would be so fine to see your bat at the plate
Doesn’t help to know you’re just locked away
Yeah, you’re Profar awayDefending last year sure got me down and lonely
Nothing else to do but close my mind
I sure hope the Mets don’t come to own me
There’s so many dreams I’ve yet to findBut you’re Profar away
Doesn’t anybody want to see the Braves win of late
It would be so fine to see your bat at the plate
Doesn’t help to know you’re just locked away
Yeah, you’re Profar away
Hey, you’re Profar away
I don’t have a lot to say at the moment. My first thought is that either he has no idea what’s in his breakfast cereal, someone spiked his breakfast cereal, or he’s the stupidest person in a profession that has a lot of very, very stupid people.
Chief Nocahoma got JC’ed:
He said:
“I’m one of those “it’s fun for me to guess whether players will be a HOFer no matter how early it is in their career” guys.
Based on what you know today, RAJr a HOFer?
I’m going to go with maybe trending to no, which is down from a yes a couple years ago. He simply hasn’t shown the ability to be able to remain healthy,
Paul Skenes – Yes
Skubal – Maybe – he’s older – 54 career wins at 30 isn’t going to do it.
Nick Kurtz – No although I would guess he flirts with 500 HRs.
Drake Baldwin – No (LOL)
Roman Anthony- Yes, weakly while holding my breath and squinting. .292 AVG and .400 OBP as a 21 year old portends well”
I said:
Acuna is tough because you don’t know if he can stay healthy. If he continues to average 3 WAR per year even with the injuries for the next 10 years (age-38 season), he’ll be at around 58 WAR. Can he have a few monster seasons between now and then? Maybe. This year could be one. Will he be broken down and out of the league by age 33-34? Probably. So I agree he doesn’t make the Hall.
Skenes – Yes
Skubal – No. Too late of a start to his peak. He might have 6-7 more seasons of 5-6 WAR, which means he’s only at as little as 45 WAR by age-35. He would have to win at least a couple more Cy Young’s to offset the lack of counting stats/WAR accumulation.
Baldwin – No
Kurtz – Way too early, but if he could somehow get remotely close to his 1.000 OPS last year, then certainly. If he can keep this going for 10 years somehow, he would have 50 WAR by age 33. That gives you a length decline phase to accumulate WAR.
Anthony – No. He’s not well-regarded as an OF already. He will likely decline physically fairly quickly and be a DH.
If we’re going really early, then you need to have a conversation about Wyatt Langford, unless you think he’s going to keep having 3 pulled obliques every year like he did last year.
What about Elly De La Cruz? Hell, he could be 400/400 on HRs/SBs at SS. His sister died last year, and he still put together a really good season.
Jackson Churio? 21 years old, already at 6 career WAR. He’s another potential 400/400 guy.
James Wood? 500 HR potential. Could age into a Fred McGriff-type with even more power.
My brother and I play this game all the time. Lol. He’s obsessed with the Hall of Fame. He texts me a random 32 year old once a week asking if he’s a Hall of Famer. Most of them are no.
I think Mallex Smith could be a Hall of Famer. #IYKYK”
Dom Smith might make the team now as the DH. Though he has the same problem as Yaz…can’t hit LHP, and Eli White is already pencilled in as Yaz’s partner until Sean Murphy returns. I guess Kyle Farmer would be his platoon partner?
Why Smith over Gamel? Gamel hits lefties better although all of he, Smith, and Yaz are lefties. Gamel may have a higher OBP than Smith.
Smith has done more recently than Gamel who hasn’t had that many MLB PAs since 2022.
Smith is younger but they both have the same experience. Gamel has been more consistent and had higher OBP. And I think Smith is on a downward trend (only one really good year when he was 25). Each had a recent season over 100 OPS+ (Gamel in 2024) and Gamel is doing better in ST this year.
Either might be better than McCutchen.
Jorge Soler only has 1 year left on his contract with the Angels…
Though he was bad last season.
Finding someone to take Soler’s contract was AA’s best move in the last 2 years
https://x.com/dobrienatl/status/2028893842221695324?s=46
Unfiltered DOB
Lockout notwithstanding, I imagine Profar never suits up again for the Braves. How do you walk back into that clubhouse next February? I can’t see it happening.
Agreed. Profar will forfeit his salary as I understand it. Cut him. Sue him. He’s useless!
Starling Marte is available…
Marte signed yesterday with Kansas City, I believe.
Darn, you’re right. And only $1 million with incentives. Andrew McCutchen (lol)?
If RAJ has two more MVP seasons, he gets in. If he has none, he doesn’t get in because he almost certainly won’t have the counting statistics. One more MVP and probably not unless he can stay healthy and have several other All-Star-type years. Dale Murphy won two MVPs and had some other very good years and hasn’t made it.
RAJ having a Dale Murphy-type career is certainly within the realm of possibility.
On the Locked In Braves podcast, Jake and Guarav said that they think JR Ritchie will make and stick in the rotation this year. If the FO is indeed correct on that, then they can survive not landing another starter. But if not…
Those guys spend more time thinking about our roster than I do, but Elder and Wentz are out of options. If they don’t make the roster they are gone. One of them probably sticks in a long role in the pen, but I would like to keep both until we know what will happen with Waldrep and Schwelly (and the rest of our rotation TBH—everyone is a question mark due to health).
That’s why I said my money is on Ritchie not breaking camp with the club, but we will probably see him this season at some point.
Sale, Strider, Elder, Wentz… who else? Lopez? Holmes? Are they even healthy and effective? And to your point, they just put Wentz in long relief. But I think you’re right that there are too many guys out of options or have the benefit of incumbency to make the roster out of Spring Training. But Ritchie won’t be too far behind.
Fuentes is out there too as someone who could easily play their way into the rotation with a good spring.
If there are more injuries or someone needs more rehab, there is room for Ritchie, but I assumed Sale, Strider, Holmes, Lopez, Elder and then Wentz as 8th man in the pen.
This off-season officially sucks.
I’m pretty sure the Braves will cut ties with Profar. As they might tell him:
But it’s too late, baby,
Now it’s too late,
Though we really did try to make it.
Somethin’ inside has died
And I can’t hide and I just can’t fake it.
Oh, no, no, no, no, no, no.
Thanks to JonathanF for the Carole King effort–it brought a smile in the midst of awful news.
In terms of getting a right-handed hitter, is there any chance Justin Turner has anything left? For DH against lefties only, I mean. He had OPS of .759 last year against lefties. Apart from who is DH, given Yaz’s platoon splits, someone needs to play left field against southpaws. As of now it will be Eli White, but that does not inspire confidence.
As of right now, we are looking at platoons at both LF and DH. Yaz/Eli in LF and it’s anybody’s guess at DH (speculation on this thread of either Smith or Gamel as the left handed side and Farmer as the right handed side.)
When Murphy comes back the Braves can pencil in one of the catchers at DH while keeping Heim as the 3rd catcher, but until then, they are trying to make chicken salad out of you know what at DH.
Will it be super-weird for the pitchers to have three catchers to deal with? Or will one of the starters get Heim as a personal catcher Maddux-style?
If we didn’t cut loose Oso Grande with all the PR baggage of not denouncing DV, I don’t think we will cut Profar. You’re paying him $15 million next season to play for someone else and for what—a roster spot for Ben Gamel? We will keep him and see if we can milk any value out of him or trade him for at least partial salary relief. Unless we can find legal means to rip up the contract, which should exist if it doesn’t.
As for our DH, I wish Profar had the decency to let us know he was going to miss the year a couple weeks ago so we could’ve just paid his money to Oso Grande or even a week ago so we could’ve signed Marte for Pennie’s. A Gamel/Farmer DH platoon isn’t exactly what I dreamt of during the offseason.
I think Heim’s purpose is that he’s a veteran and wouldn’t be lost behind the plate if needed, while hopefully not being a complete offensive zero. And when Murphy gets back he makes it easier to play a catcher at DH without the fear of injury.
Another scenario to consider: Profar appeals and it takes to May 1 to clear. He loses. He is DH until then, followed by Murphy against lefthanders. We really only need a RH bat for 60 days, at most, depending on how the appeal plays.
And no, you don’t release him and pay him and let somebody else sign him for 600,000 (or whatever Major League Minimum is now).
Unlike with a first offense, he’s not allowed to play during his appeal on a second PED offense. He will not be playing until after the appeal is ruled upon and the remainder of his suspension has expired. Even in a fantasy land where the ruling on the appeal is that MLB made a big, fat mistake and the suspension is completely voided, he can’t play until the appeal is ruled upon.
I wouldn’t be surprised if AA doesn’t give Sam Hilliard another chance.
I’m warming up to the idea of Ben Gamel. He does at least have high career walk rates. Even put up a .380 OBP in his last season in 99 plate appearances. Sam Hilliard, the pride of Midland is an interesting guy. I briefly thought we had a nice find with him.
If the DH had existed when Chipper was playing I bet he would have played longer.
I wonder if he could still put up good PAs without embarrassing himself today.
McCutchen signed a MiLB deal with the Rangers. Seems like it’s now Gamel or Smith.
I find myself wondering about rosters and thinking if we have to have a black hole in the lineup, why not have it at catcher, as in platooning Heim and Tromp for now (until Murphy is back), instead of DH by using Baldwin there. It would eliminate having to sit him a couple of times a week for rest. Still not optimal.
I’m old enough to remember the first couple of months of the 2025 season, when RAJ was still recovering, MHIi was horrible, and the remaining outfielders were bad enough that the Braves had the worst outfield in baseball. Along with Ozzie’s ineptitude and Nick Allen playing everyday, the Braves offense was so bad that they dug a hole that was difficult to overcome. Then when Ronald came back, Sale, Schwelly and Shawver went down. So when Harris and Allies finally started to hit a little, it was way too late. It’s true the pitching injuries likely doomed the season in any event, but the horrendous offense from the outfield for the first two months didn’t help.
Why are the names bandied about for DH and left field giving me a sense of Deja vu?
Tristin English with a big hit today. He’s an interesting guy, RHB corner outfielder with pop. The pride of Zebulon, a 28-year-old who got drafted out of GT and hit well through the upper minors, crushing AAA, though in a hitter’s league. He never really got a chance to show he could hit in the bigs. Well, a chance is exactly what we have to offer. This type of player is always interesting to me. Reminds me of Joey Meneses. Clearly can hit but plays a one-tool position where it’s hard to break in.
https://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/onsi/arizona-diamondbacks-news/former-diamondbacks-infielder-signs-braves-english
With the pitching injuries and Profar suspension, I think we should concede we will not likely go 162-0. However, I think it is realistic that we have the same winning percentage during the regular season that we currently have during spring training. Since we are 9-2, I think I will be okay with an .820 winning percentage and a 132 and 30 record. It would be a little disappointing but I don’t want my hopes to be too high. I’m also hoping that Yazstremski’s .571 batting average and 1.933 OPS will be sustainable. I admit that may be slightly optimistic.
First, I’m not giving up 162-0 until someone makes me. But if you’re shackled by data, then I guess 132-30 is defensible. As to Yazstremski’s batting average, I think the easiest data to use is the Grandfather Rule. Ray Boone had a career batting average of .275 and career OPS of .789. His grandchildren, Aaron and Brett, had BA of .263/.751 and .266/.767 respectively. Adding these together, we get grandchild performance of .529/1.518, which is an increase of .254/.729. Applying this Grandchild Adder to Grandpa Carl’s career .285/.841 yields a prediction for Mike of .539/1.570. This is slightly below your estimates, but it’s based on incontrovertible numbers.
PS: I ran the analysis above by Claude, who responded thusly: “The methodology is airtight, obviously. A sample size of two grandchild pairs is more than sufficient to establish a universal law of hereditary baseball performance, and the additive model is clearly the correct functional form — no reason to consider ratios, regression to the mean, or the possibility that the Boone family represents a single data point rather than a replicable phenomenon.
A few refinements you might consider for the peer-reviewed version:
The Grandfather Rule implicitly assumes that Carl Yastrzemski’s genetics flow exclusively through the paternal line, which may undercount Mike’s endowment if his maternal grandfather also had a notable OPS. You’d want to average across both grandfathers, or at minimum control for it.
Also, the Boone calibration uses Ray’s career numbers, but Ray played from 1948-1960, an era with meaningfully different run environments. If you park-and-era-adjust Ray’s .789 OPS, the Grandchild Adder shifts, and Mike’s projected OPS could move a fair amount in either direction — potentially back up to td’s optimistic 1.933, which would vindicate both the methodology and td’s hopes simultaneously.
Finally, the model currently has no error bars, which a referee might flag. Given n=2 grandchild pairs, the confidence interval on the Grandchild Adder is somewhat wide — conceivably including zero, though I wouldn’t dwell on that in the abstract.
The 162-0 position, by contrast, requires no defense whatsoever. It’s March.” I love Claude.
Mavis Yastrzemski’s OPS was much more O than S. She was known to slap a dozen strikes foul until she wrangled a walk from an exhausted pitcher. On the bases, she was an insatiable base goblin. They called her Mavis the Maven. After a walk, one little known journeyman pitcher turned to look her back to first but was surprised to see she’d broken for second. By the time he wheeled to throw, she was already at third and she scored as the desperate heave sailed into centerfield.
Anyone want to take a flyer on Ryan Mountcastle as DH? Orioles might take a bucket of balls and $1M of salary relief. A good hitter until last year and could be had cheap.
I’d take him.
We should have plenty of cash, $15M just got opened up.
Nathan, that $15 million will be returned to shareholders in a juicy dividend. There will be a heartwarming article about it in the AJC.
Albies is pumped:
https://x.com/jared_carrabis/status/2030372111575904506?s=46
Good for Ozzie. That said, I was amused that the announcer said the Netherlands “takes the lead” when it was the bottom of the ninth and Ozzie had just won the game.
Also about Ozzie, I wonder how common it is for a player to be as short as he is, be a competent hitter, and still draw walks so infrequently. You’d think a smaller strike zone would lead to more walks.
I had not realized how successful at stealing both Ozzie and Acuna have been. Career totals are Albies 98/23 and Acuna 205/50 (or 104/24 and 210/52 including postseason). Ozzie has only been below 75% for one year, and Acuna has never been below 67%. Given how often both have been injured, I’d just as soon they only tried to steal in high-leverage situations.
https://x.com/mlbbowman/status/2030638989854572883?s=20
Wow, Didier is looking fantastic. I think people will think that his performance as a 19-year old at the big league level is who he is… but they would be wrong.
I’d love to have Giolito or whatever, but if I can trust that if AA is keeping his powder dry to make moves at the deadline a la 2021, then I can totally live with having multiple rotation spots be tryouts for the kids.
Not sure if anyone is paying attention today, but all the Rays runs/rallies are with two outs. I hope this doesn’t play out during the season. Elder/Vines, oy.
https://x.com/grantmcauley/status/2030717061496701021?s=46
Another one bites the dust.
And Littell signed with the gNats. The Braves just scored 8 runs and lost. We gotta get some good pitching sometime.
Man, what Elder is not on, it gets really, really ugly.
Terry Pendleton did not dig The Metrodome:
Notable that he thinks Gants’s drive that was robbed at the wall by Puckett should have been 10 rows into the seats.
Game never should have gone to Game 7 with the Braves winning in 6.
Well I guess Martin Perez stock just went up
Jose Suarez too.
Joel Payamps finally pitched today. Not sure why it took so long for him to get into a spring game.
I knew Payamps’ slider was his main pitch and that it had sharp glove side break, but I didn’t realize just how well he can spin it. His slider averaged almost 2900 rpm today. It’s been in the 2500-2800 range every season of his career. He’s also been pretty good at locating it (106 Location+ for his career) and getting whiffs on it (34.5% whiff rate last year). The starting rotation might be held together with duct tape, but with Payamps presumably in the bullpen along with Iglesias, Suarez, Lee, Bummer, Kinley, and Dodd/Wentz/Harris/whoever, at least the pen figures to be a really solid unit.
Nice! Payamps was a great boom or bust pickup. Where do you get these pitch numbers on spring games? The pen is gonna be really good. I think we have to keep Karinchak with what he has been showing. Anybody with options probably gets sent down because we have a major shortage of relief pitchers with options to fill in if anyone gets hurt.
You’re at 7 with Payamps, Iglesias, Suarez, Lee, Bummer, Kinley, Karinchak. Wentz is probably #8 with Elder in the rotation, because you need an insurance policy/long man. If Elder keeps being a flaming sack, I think he’s finally cut loose in favor of Martin Perez, who has been what you hope Elder could be–a decent (above replacement) 5th who gives you a chance to win most of his starts.
Oh yeah, I forgot about Karinchak. The high-IVB fastball and hammer curve make for a deadly combination. He’s got a good chance to win a bullpen spot.
To get those kinds of numbers I referenced, you can go to Baseball Savant and view the stats for a game. You should see a “Player Breakdowns” tab. (On mobile, it’s part of a dropdown menu.) On that Player Breakdowns page, you can see all sorts of data for each pitcher that appeared in the game, broken down by pitch type — average velocity, whiff rate, spin rate, induced vertical break, etc.
https://x.com/FoulTerritoryTV/status/2031018419538059339?s=20
Rosenthal says the Braves are keeping their powder dry on the Profar money until they know definitively that he’s lost his appeal, which could take weeks or months.
I would assume that if the money does get spent, it’ll be spent at the deadline. In defense of AA, he did try to spend the Profar savings last year by taking back $3M of Montero’s salary and a couple of other small deals. So I do trust him to re-spend the money.
Being one of the few teams that can absorb $15MM at the deadline is actually pretty valuable. I’m not sure which pending FA high dollar players could fall into that category but assuming there are some, you could take advantage of a limited market. Or we might be terrible and it won’t matter.
I don’t see what more Carlos Carrasco needs to do to show you he was done 4 years ago.
Neither he or Elder were impressive in their most recent starts. That being said, I would rather we go with Elder over Carrasco every day of the week.
Aaaand Joey Wentz has a torn ACL.
Lol. It’s so predictable at this point.
Tough for him. This was a pivotal season for him and I do think he had a spot. For us, it is a shrug of the shoulders. Perez or Suarez can probably offer the same thing.
It’s frustrating that it’s more of the same with his injury, but Joey Wentz was looking for a job this time last year. And I’m sure we have more than enough internal replacements.
Julio Teheran has retired.
https://www.mlb.com/news/former-braves-pitcher-julio-teheran-announces-retirement
Eligibility for Social Security will soften the financial blow. jk. He is, of course, only 35. He left the Braves 6 years ago and has only made 26 appearances since then. We squeezed just about every ounce of juice of Julio that could be squeezed. He earned 20.2 WAR with the Braves and -.5 with everyone else.
Actually, come to think of it, I’d happily replace Carrasco with Julio, but I don’t think either one would make the team.
RAJr. has homered.
Has anyone heard anything about how negotiations with cable and satellite systems are proceeding with BravesVision?
No. I’m eager to hear it and they are running out of time.
I’d like to know as well. I need to get out from under an expensive cable deal and could use some clarity about where to go next.
Of course, the official Braves line is that BravesVision will be everywhere.
I assume it will all sort of come together much like our rotation.
Today, Suarez said buy Martin Perez stock
Yeah, Suarez may make his way back to the waiver wire.
I listen to Locked On Braves as my Braves podcast of choice, and he’s been having Twitter guy Guarav on to discuss prospects. First of all, he is about as blindly optimistic about prospects as I was 10 years ago with our pitching prospects. He’s said at different points that Caminiti is a bonafide front of the rotation starter, and he’s said at different points that Ritchie, Braun, Didier, and Murphy will see time in Atlanta this year. I’m not sure how many rotation spots he thinks a MLB franchise has, but he’s rrrrreal optimistic.
He’s either rrrreal optimistic about our prospects or rrrrreal pessimistic about the health outlook for our starting five.
I will be stunned if Strider, Lopez and Holmes stay healthy all year.
I see two outcomes for 2026:
Starting pitching average, offense rocks: 90-95 wins.
Starting pitching average, offense sucks: 75-80 wins.
Anything less than 162-0 will be a bitter disappointment and a blight on the reputations of AA, Weiss, the entire organization and the fans who enabled it by not being demanding enough. On the other hand, once we go 162-0, a loss in the first playoff round would be the result of overconfidence.
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