When MLBTradeRumors put out their top 50 Free Agent predictions and had Cody Bellinger at 12/$264MM, I got a serious case of sticker shock. Immediately I thought “NO FREAKING WAY”. However, I did think Bellinger would surpass $100MM. However, as the offseason went on, Bellinger remained unsigned and finally took a deal to return to the Cub on a 3/$80MM deal with opt outs after years 1 & 2. MLB is in week 2 of spring training, live games are now occurring daily, and yet 3 of the 4 big Scott Boras clients are still unsigned.
Blake Snell is “continuing talks” with the Yankees, which prompted this tweet from me:
We have barely heard a peep on Jordan Montgomery‘s market. The Giants “remain involved” on Matt Chapman. However, the Boras 4 aren’t the only problem, but it’s Boras that has the market stopped up like a dairy only diet. Seriously, this list at the end of February is absurd:
I think it’s safe to say that Montgomery and Snell are solely responsible for slow SP market, but is there more to it than that? Have teams finally had enough Boras? At least half of this list should be employed by now.
If it’s not Scott Boras, what is it?
It’s time for Boras to get a comeuppance. If the teams that normally “played” with Boras (like the Nats) don’t spend then his clients are gonna get screwed. With the exception of Snell and Montgomery (and maybe Chapman), what advantage do any of those guys really offer except filling a hole? Platoon bats, pver-the-hill guys, most barely replacement level, not a lot to offer, Youth is cheap and I think most teams are opting for youth, potential, control, cheap.
With the exception of HoF type players (or Hall of Very Good), how long have we known that around 27-28 is a baseball player’s peak?
Peaks have been running into early 30s for a few years now.
I think sometimes Boras overplays his hand. He tries to declare where the market is going, and then it doesn’t get there. On average, his clients come out pretty well. However, when that strategy doesn’t work, it hurts some clients.
On Bellinger specifically, his last season rebound is awfully suspicious as a “statistically suspect dead cat bounce.” I can’t believe the Cubs played at that level. They risk being stuck with 1.5 WAR Bellinger for 3 years and 80 million against having 4 WAR Bellinger for one year (with a minute chance of 3 WAR Bellinger hanging around for another year that would still be risky for the Cubs).
As to the Braves specifically and Boras, AA has set his approach to try to solve problems early in the offseason. Boras tries to hold on and wait for the market to rise to squeeze out every last penny. There approaches mean that they will seldom do deals together. Looking at this offseason past, The Braves were too good not to make sure that they were good. They couldn’t wait until February to add an essential component.
Between Boras, the players, and the owners, they’re all consenting adults. Players know what they sign up for when they hire Boras, and Boras clients probably make more money than they otherwise would, on average. What we don’t know is what Bellinger, for example, could have signed for 2 months ago. If the player is willing to not know where they’re going to live until March, then what does it matter?
I do find it fascinating that there are this many unsigned very good players, but I don’t think it’s a problem. Therefore, no one can be the problem with this problem. Some arms are going to blow out in the next few weeks, and Blake Snell fundamentally becomes more valuable. If he’s willing to wait it out, that’s his business and I don’t think we should say whether that’s bad or not.
If I were in Bellinger or Snell’s shoes, I’d be doing the same thing. Does it really matter what team you play for if the team checks the boxes and pays the money? No. They’re probably single, and their friends and family don’t live in whatever city the teams are considering them anyway. The women are the same in Chicago or LA or Phoenix or Atlanta, and you know you’re not in a season of life to commit to whatever gal you meet in whatever city you live in. So might as well just wait out as long as possible until you get top dollar on a team you can win a championship with.
Thanks for making this a post because I had been waiting to give a long form answer on Twitter.
Gimme
https://x.com/jaysonst/status/1762913967771451628?s=20
I saw that. Giles might be a better option than Stephens or Daysbel. Feels like another Kirby Yates.
I forgot we got Giles! He was a real stud for a couple years; he doesn’t have to come all the way back to bump a lot of people in the bullpen down one more notch on the depth chart.
Boras is out for Boras. I’m sure everyone knows that. But some players would be better off signing extensions, etc. Boras knows that but he doesn’t care. He tells them they should do better in free agency, which is true, but should covers over a multitude of bad outcomes and disappointments that figure into the average.
He also really drives these one-sided player option deals that are terrible for the team. If the player performs, he leaves. If he bombs, he stays. No GM with numbers sense should ever sign such a deal. Heads, player wins, tails, team loses.
Boras represents a lot of free agents and in general free agency has been harmed by the sport having a de facto salary cap. I’m sure his negotiating strategy has some effect but I think the spending penalties are most responsible.
The Braves were rumored to be in on Sonny Gray early in the off-season; when he signed with the Cardinals the reports indicated the Braves didn’t like his injury history and were targeting pitchers with known durability, like Aaron Nola. Then they traded for Chris Sale, who has an extensive injury history and the beat writers are now saying the Braves would be thrilled if he pitches 150 innings.
If the Braves wouldn’t have lost draft picks and international slot money would have they signed Gray as opposed to trading for Sale? We’ll never know for sure but I’m willing to bet the penalties factored into their decision making.
If the penalties kept them from signing Gray and Nola, why did they even bother, unless you want to say they were driving up the Phillies’ price. I don’t believe it. We were probably sniffing around Nola and Gray at the same time, and there’s a good chance we were willing to give Nola 6 years but not give Gray 3 guaranteed.
Looks like Forrest Wall is on a mission. 2HR, 6 RBI so far today.
40/100 club, let’s go!
Oh, no.
https://theathletic.com/5311600/2024/03/02/braves-ronald-acuna-jr-knee-exam/
We have a new thread.