The Braves won 104 games in 2023 and had one of the best regular rotations in baseball coming out of spring training. However, injuries plagued the starting rotation right out the gate. Alex Anthopoulos had what seemed to be a vast amount of “5th starter” depth at AAA, but that depth turned out to be an absolute dumpster fire:
- Yonny Chirinos: 9.27 ERA in 22.1 IP
- Dylan Dodd: 7.60 ERA in 34.1 IP
- Jared Shuster: 5.81 ERA in 52.2 IP
- Allan Winans: 5.29 ERA in 32.1 IP
- Kyle Wright: 6.97 ERA in 31 IP
- Michael Soroka: 5.40 ERA in 32.1 IP
- Kolby Allard: 6.57 ERA in 12.1 IP
When the offseason kicked off, AA, in a cryptic manner, discussed a secret plan that would mold his offseason and I came up with a few theories. Of the theories, one was that he wasn’t happy with the depth of the roster, both active and 40-man, especially in the pitching department. I don’t think it’s coincidence that of the above 7 players, only 2 remain in the organization. Anthopoulos did not have a depth problem. He had a quality of depth problem and overhauled the entire 40-man to create real depth that wouldn’t cost games.
The Bullpen is LOADED with Entrees and Desserts
Assuming health, when the season kicks off the bullpen should be stronger than any bullpen we’ve seen in quite some time. Raisel Iglesias will once again don the closer’s role with A.J. Minter, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson, Reynaldo Lopez, Aaron Bummer, and 2 of Tyler Matzek, Ray Kerr, Jackson Stephens, Dylan Lee, Daysbel Hernandez, and Huascar Ynoa.
What’s even more impressive is that the Braves picked up 2 legit relievers in Penn Murfee and Angel Perdomo. Murfee could see some games by year’s end, but Perdomo will sit 2024 out, but should be ready to go in spring of 2025.
The Regular Rotation… and Then Some!
The Braves have one of, if not the best rotation in baseball. With Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Chris Sale, Charlie Morton, and Bryce Elder, there’s a whole lot to like when that group is on the mound. However, last year, due to the injuries to Huascar Ynoa and Ian Anderson, the rotation was thin, and when Max Fried, Kyle Wright, and Charlie Morton went down for extended periods. the replacements were… to be frank, horrible.
Fast forward to the offseason and it was apparent that AA was out to fix the one glaring flaw and he traded the lot. Then he signed Reynaldo Lopez, a chameleon that can alter between reliever and starter. After Lopez, there are 4 that form a great group that can swing between AAA and the bigs in AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, Huascar Ynoa, and Darius Vines. And, if AA needs to dip in the well a little deeper, Allan Winans is always an option (and actually performed much better than his above statline).
And don’t forget…Ian Anderson should be ready to go around the All-Star Break.
With so many quality options, the Braves are in good hands.
To sum it up, here are the pitchers that could start in 2024:
Strider
Fried
Lopez
Ynoa
Morton
Sale
Elder
Shawver
Waldrep
Winans
Vines
More than 2 rotations and such quality.
Thanks, Ryan. AA is a wizard. While I am excited to see what Shawver and Waldrep can do, I am most curious about Elder. Will it be First-Half-Elder or Second-Half-Elder?
I wasn’t confident that he would be a key factor in 2024 but after hearing him talk, he’s a really intelligent pitcher. I think he’ll be alright.
There was a strong narrative around here that Elder succeeded with a combination of luck and lack of familiarity and just got exposed. I think it’s more likely that he tired, being such a young pitcher and lacking experience at such inning totals. He is always going to be a pitch-to-contact guy, but I think that plays well enough to be a solid starter. The fact he was not packaged in a trade shows the Braves think so too.
I think that rings true. AA seems to have packaged up everyone they had little confidence in or had no path to playing time and shipped them out. The fact that they kept Elder is a good sign for his future. I thought he might go he way of Bryse Wilson.
I also think that the Braves have had trouble filling the bench for the playing time reasons stated. Lots of MiLB signings that I thought might be good for the Braves (Brian Anderson being the most recent example).
I’d love to be as optimistic as everyone else here but I don’t think this rotation is anywhere near the best in baseball.
AA added the most injury prone starter in baseball to a group that is already depending on a 40 year old and a smoke & mirrors guy. Fried and Strider are great but behind them are a bunch of “ifs”.
“If Sale can stay healthy for the first time in 5 years….”
“If Elder can get big outs with a 90mph fastball…”
“If Morton can give us another sub 4 era year at 40 years old…”
We still have Waldrep, AJSS, Lopez, Ynoa, Winans, Vines, and Dodd who could make starts if needed.
I don’t think everyone is so optimistic. I am still bitterly disappointed we didn’t sign one of the available aces, and we could’ve done it with Morton’s money. At the time, I wondered out loud whether picking up his option meant we didn’t have that money, and sure enough. I’m all for the acquisition of Sale as a buy-low guy, but I worry we are going to be without a reliable #3 in the postseason for the 5th straight year.
I certainly agree that there is plenty of risk in the rotation, and I wouldn’t even dismiss the risk of Strider and Fried, especially Fried. I do think there’s a lot more upside in this rotation, though, and the floor is still higher than last year. Morton and Sale can probably still be good pitchers if they’re healthy, and Elder will probably stay healthy but it’s a question of if any he’s good. I’m ok with that level of risk since the depth behind it is so drastically better than last year. And since we’ll roll with 6 SPs for a while, keep in mind that we have probably the best 6th SPs with options in baseball.
If I remember correctly, we had 16 guys make starts last year. One, I think this rotation is assembled so that we don’t quite have to have 16 people make starts next year. But if we end up having 10–12 pitcher make starts next year, I think this group is much, much better than last year.
Here’s my pass/fail situation that I’m going to evaluate the rotation on: will we be in game three of the NLDS on the road in the third inning having a gassed or figured out Bryce Elder pitching to Bryce Harper with the game of the line? Do we have a better SP on the mound? Do we have more than one lefty we trust in the pen to burn with the game on the line? I think we’ve built both a rotation and a pen that avoids that. I think we have a really, really good pitching staff top to bottom.
I agree with Ryan that this season’s pitching depth appears to be much better than last year’s. At the same time, I also have many of the concerns shared here in comments.
But here’s what really matters to me today: I looked at gameday on my mlb app and saw baseball being played. It’s a very good day.
A good day indeed.
What a great start by MoneyMike today. Maybe he’s ready to be the superstar we all think he can be. I always thought he did so well in the 9th slot because he was like a second leadoff hitter. I wonder if it might be an idea to swap him and Ozzie depending on the handedness of the pitcher – Mike hitting 2nd against righties and Ozzie hitting 2nd against lefties (and the other hitting 9th). Seems like Ozzie is such a great hitter against lefties and Mike is weaker against lefties (and vice versa). That would also solve the AB quantity issue.
Seems to me like the most efficient lineup would be:
Acuna
Harris/Albies
Riley
Olson
Murphy/Ozuna
Ozuna/d’Arnaud
Kelenic
Arcia
Albies/Harris
Off-topic, but found this interesting— a piece written by an anonymous pro pitcher who points, in part, to the pitch clock for an increased # of TJ surgeries happening last year. With his idea being dudes are already throwing at crazy-insane-max effort these days, and with less time to rest between every pitch, it increases the potential for injury. And that there’s no real incentive to ‘take a little off’ to preserve your arm because the stakes are so high for everyone (and b/c there is always someone else throwing 100+ knocking on the door & ready to take your spot if you do). I am 100% ignorant of the science/biology here, but hadn’t heard anyone else make this connection before w/r/t the clock.
https://defector.com/a-pitchers-view-on-the-tommy-john-epidemic
Elder picking up where he left off
New thread with Lots of Nacho.