Comparisons to fellow Curacaoans can feel a little lazy, but here’s something Ozzie Albies shares in common with Andruw Jones: he is incredibly good and has been since the moment he entered the majors as the youngest player in the league, but his flaws are annoying enough (and are visible enough) that he draws more than his share of flak from fans.
But the back of his baseball card really speaks for itself. He just turned 27 on January 7th, and he’s played the equivalent of about five full seasons in seven years, including his abbreviated rookie campaign, the too-short 2020, and his injury-shortened 2022. It’s easy math: he’s been the equivalent of a four-win player from the moment he stepped into the majors at the age of 20. He’s a sparkplug, a glue guy, a cornerstone at the keystone. (Not the first time I’ve used that phrase.)
Why is he frustrating? That’s easy: he sells out for power. In the low minors, he was a high-average guy with higher walk rates, lower strikeouts, and lower ISO. His Fangraphs player page contains a now-amusing snapshot of the player he seemed to be back then, before his 2017 callup, with 20-80 scouting grades for his skills: 45/70 hit tool, with 20/30 game power. That meant that once he maxed out his ability to hit for average, he’d be contending for batting titles, and when he maxed out his power, he’d be struggling to hit double-digit homers.
Instead, when he got to the majors, his power jumped while his OBP plummetted as both his walks and his average dropped. That was frustrating as hell at times, since it so clearly looked like he made a choice. That said, obviously, it’s hard to say the choice was wrong; who’s to say that, with a different approach, he’d still be able to post a 110 wRC+ in the majors?
Last year was his best offensive performance in the majors by wRC+, as he actually jumped to 124. That said, he’s been pretty consistent. Compared with 2021, his walk rate grew a bit (though not quite to where it had been in his 2017 cup of coffee, or in 2019), while his strikeouts dropped slightly (though not as much as they had in 2019), and his ISO was four points higher than it had been in 2021. Essentially, in 2023, he didn’t do anything he’d never done before, but by combining some of his best individual performances across his past seasons, he set a new overall offensive high-water mark.
One interesting note from baseball-savant suggests part of what he does so well at the plate. His exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate are all relatively unimpressive, below the 50th percentile. But his Sweet-Spot rate is 83rd percentile. Somehow, despite all his propensity to chase and whiff, when he makes any contact at all, he is extremely good at squaring it up. (That may be a corollary of the postulate that he’s selling out: he’s making up for his lack of natural raw power by engineering a swing that catches the ball on the fat part of the bat.)
Unfortunately, his fielding took a downward turn; while it was a true strength earlier in his career, the numbers assessed his defense quite negatively this year, and time will tell if that’s a blip or a trend, though it’s quite likely his performance continued to be affected by the broken foot he suffered in 2022.
Still, the falloff was severe. From 2021 to 2023, his Fielding Run Value fell from 50th percentile to 10th, his Range (Outs Above Average) fell from 80th percentile to 2nd percentile, and his sprint speed fell from 83rd percentile to 54th percentile. It would be reasonable to expect some of those numbers to bounce back after another offseason. If not for his worse-than-usual fielding numbers, he likely would have posted a career high in WAR in 2023; as it is, 2019 remains the career mark.
In the end, Ozzie Albies defines the contradiction in the word “consistent”: too often, in baseball, the word “inconsistent” is applied to a player who fails to be like Freddie Freeman: someone who doesn’t go 1-3 every game, but who follows an 0-4 game with a 3-5 game. Ozzie’s plate approach may be inconsistent from at bat to at bat. But his results are extraordinarily consistent from year to year. If his defense bounces back to normal and he manages to continue to improve offensively, he could be a 6-win player.
In the end, how can you not love the guy?
Good job, Alex, as usual.
Hs speed hasn’t declined nearly as much as range. Maybe there is some loss of mobility in the foot. Who is designated infield butt kicker in chief now that Wash is gone?
Is it range or changed defensive alignment with the new defensive placement rules? Maybe he’s forced to be farther from the average grounded than he was. Maybe the inability to move Riley into short right field has changed where he plays. How can we know?
Hard to believe he’s in the bottom two percent of fielders if he’s fully healthy, especially when he’s a former shortstop and we’re used to seeing him as one of the better glove men at his position.
Jim Powell no longer in the booth. Not his decision, and I can’t say I understand it. Always liked him.
This is a shame. I’m a huge fan of his.
Agree. Jim Powell is a class broadcaster: called the game straight and honestly. He will be missed.
Interesting that he did not thank the current radio play-by-play man.
I thought that too.
It seems that Ben Ingram came onto the scene and ended up taking Jim Powell’s job. Either the Braves noticed the talent and promoted Ben over Jim to keep him around, or Ben somehow strong-armed the job away from Jim. But there does seem to be some hard feelings implied. Jim is a good broadcaster, but I really enjoy Ben Ingram. It’s business, unfortunately.
I suppose it could also have nothing to do with Ben, since Jim was paired with Joe for the vast majority of his work.
New thread: https://bravesjournal.com/2024/01/26/smith-shawvers-meteoric-rise/
Ozzie Albies has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season for the Braves. His hitting and baserunning skills are truly elite, and it’s exciting to think about his potential for growth in the future. Keep up the great work, Ozzie!