The Braves were apparently in on Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, but word on the street is that they just couldn’t pull the trigger due to the qualifying offer penalties. While I’m not pro or anti-Manfred, sacrificing a 2nd round pick, 5th round pick, AND $1MM in international money is a direct contradiction to the notion that MLB wants the owners to spend.
And while I don’t know for sure that AA didn’t go the Nola or Gray route because of the penalties, it has to be a major deterrent for teams like the Braves that are not working toward a window, but want a team that has long-term sustainability.
So, it is without surprise that the Braves front office will, once again, likely pivot to the trade market for players that meet their needs and the most glaring of needs is starting pitching. We fans know that the Braves front office is so tight-lipped that a tic tac would have a hard time penetrating AA’s lips, but just because the Braves are tight-lipped doesn’t mean that other front offices are and that’s where we get this first real trade rumor involving the Braves this offseason.
Dylan Cease, a native of Milton, Georgia and a Vandy alum, is apparently available, has 2 more years of control, and could very well be another trade and extend guy that AA has become known for these past few years. However, make no mistake that Cease will not be cheap. While the MLB Trade Simulator suggests that his trade value is ~$40MM, my guess is that it would take at least $50MM in assets considering there’ll likely be high demand for a pitcher so young and talented.
Building a Package for Cease
Any package that the Braves build for Cease likely begins with Vaughn Grissom then one of Hurston Waldrep or AJ Smith-Shawver. However, there is a chance that the White Sox would take a more bulky package and the Braves can keep their bigger prospects and the White Sox can get immediate and future help. If I’m AA, here’s my offer:
If this doesn’t get it done for the White Sox, the Braves would have to insert Shawver or Waldrep and while I’m at least a little optimistic that this trade package could work, I’m also fully aware that it could be inevitable that the White Sox want more.
No .way that package gets the job done. Just sign Yammamoto which only costs money
Yeah, it seems like the best of all worlds since we don’t want to give up current prospects or draft capital. Plus with Cease you get a couple of years and then Scott Boras happens. Can’t we just sign someone for once?
Great trade for the Braves, not so much for the ChiSox
Ryan, thanks for raising this for discussion. It sure seems that a trade for Cease is the best option at this point to acquire the kind of starter the Braves need. I cannot imagine, though, that the Chisox would do this without getting at least Waldrep or AJSS.
I agree, unless they really think highly of Elder.
I doubt the league is as down on Elder as we are. Not that Chisox brass is stupid, but Elder was an all-star in his first full season. Some may look at Elder and the poor September performance and conclude that he tired down the stretch due to being young and not having experience with those inning counts. Actually, I look at Elder a bit that way. I don’t think his success was a total fluke, and as much as I’m not excited about him, I do think there’s a chance he is a reasonably effective pitcher next year, though never a top-of-the-rotation starter. A guy who can eat 180 innings with a 4 ERA isn’t a bad thing for a team with a good offense.
How about Elder and AJSS for Cease? That should work value-wise. Extend Fried and Cease. Grissom in LF and Ynoa at SP5 and/or swingman. That still leaves us Waldrep, Ian Anderson, and others to compete for rotation spots. I think teams like the Wihte Sox may look sideways at recovering TJS players like Ynoa and Anderson. If the Braves like Grissom as much as John Adcox says then putting him in LF is better than Eloy. Especially as he can be insurance for a MI injury. If any one of our pitchers gets ready by next season (Waldrep, Anderson, Ynoa, Vines, Schwellenbach, Murphy, etc…) then they can replace Morton next year.
Both Elder and AJSS have long years of control able to fit into the White sox’s next window.
I’m trying not to get my hopes up. If the Dodgers want him — and it appears they do — they could probably beat any offer we throw at Chicago unless we include both AJSS and Waldrep in a package with Grissom.
I’d be tempted to do it. AJSS is a live arm but not a sure thing; Waldrep looks incredibly nasty but there’s some reliever risk there.
Not that it matters — Cease was a Vandy commit, but never actually made it to campus. Actually, he’d fit right in with Ian Anderson and Matt Olson in that respect. (Old pal Touki Toussaint also in the Vandy-commit-but-signed-pro-then-played-for-the-Braves club).
Cease would be a valuable addition to the rotation, if the Braves could acquire him. His 4.58 ERA last year wasn’t great, but that’s partially due to the terrible defenders that played behind him (the White Sox collectively had -8 OAA when Cease was pitching). His peripherals looked fine (4.07 xERA, 3.72 FIP) and he still got plenty of strikeouts (tied for the 8th-best strikeout rate in the majors), so the stuff is still there.
Ultimately, his true talent level probably lies somewhere between his excellent 2022 and his comparatively lackluster 2023, but that’s still a very valuable player to have. I do think that the Braves would have to part ways with either AJSS or Waldrep (along with Grissom, Elder, and others) just to get Cease, and that they’d have to give up even more if they wanted an additional player like Jimenez.
Off topic: I am not a whiz with fielding metrics because I generally find them boring, but it looks like things like UZR/150 say Ozuna and Rosario are roughly equivalent in LF in their time with the Braves. Anybody have insight? Yes, I’m asking bc I’m rosterbating about Ohtani at DH and thinking of a lineup with 5 40 HR hitters
There might’ve been a time when Rosario and Ozuna were on the same level, but that time has come and gone. Ozuna has bulked up these past few years with added muscle and a formidable gut. Unless he comes to camp in BSOHL then we are seeing an everyday DH, not someone that trots out to LF.
New thread.