The Braves have some shopping to do this offseason, especially in the pitching category. However, there might not be a lot of $ to go to free agents if all the options are picked up. In today’s piece, we will look at the Braves projected payroll of 2024, utilize 2023 as the bar, and discuss the funds that AA has to work with to fill out a high quality roster.
Braves Guaranteed Contracts
- Matt Olson: $22MM
- Austin Riley: $22MM
- Marcell Ozuna: $18MM
- Ronald Acuna Jr: $17MM
- Raisel Iglesias: $16MM
- Sean Murphy: $9MM
- Travis D’Arnaud: $8MM
- Ozzie Albies: $7MM
- Michael Harris II: $5MM
- Orlando Arica: $2MM
- Tyler Matzek: $1.9MM
- Spencer Strider: $1MM
Total: $128.MM for 12 players
Breakdown: Out of this group, the only questionable contract is likely Marcell Ozuna. If the Braves want to, they could move on from his $18MM and gain a whole lot more flexibility out of their DH.
Braves Arbitration Estimates
- A.J. Minter $6.5MM
- Max Fried $14.4MM
- Yonny Chirinos $2MM
- Michael Soroka $3MM
- Nick Anderson $1.6MM
- Nicky Lopez $3.9MM
- Kolby Allard $1MM
- Ben Heller $900K
- Sam Hilliard $1.1MM
- Michael Tonkin $1MM
- Kyle Wright $1.4MM
- Andrew Velazquez $740K
- Huascar Ynoa $1MM
Breakdown: Of this list, I have a hard time believing that Chirinos, Soroka, Allard, Heller, Hilliard, and Velazquez will be part of the team in 2024 (most of those are out of options), so I’m subtracting that $ and factoring them off of the final total. And while I won’t change the $, I do believe that the Braves will work out a different deal with Nicky Lopez and sign him to a multi-year deal, something like 3/$10MM with, of course, a player option. I also have a feeling that the Braves will at least float the idea that Max Fried is available, assuming they’re ok grabbing a stud on the trade and/or free agent market. However, unlike the above, I will not take his salary out of the equation.
Subtotal: $29.8MM for (7) Minter, Fried, Anderson, Lopez, Tonkin, Wright, and Ynoa.
Total: $157.8MM for 19 players
Braves Players w/ Club Options
- Charle Morton: $20MM
- Eddie Rosario: $9MM
- Brad Hand: $7MM
- Kirby Yates: $5.75MM
- Collin McHugh: $6MM
Breakdown: I’m guessing McHugh and Hand will be let loose, Yates will be picked up, but the other 2 are difficult. Morton will be back if he chooses, but Eddie was barely worth his contract last year and the Braves don’t have any other offensive position in need of an upgrade outside of LF. My guess is they let Eddie walk. Still, the total for this group ranges wildly, but we will know the results pretty soon.
My final guess, for now: Morton and Yates are here. The other 3 are gone.
Subtotal (after buyouts): $27.25MM
Total: $185.05MM for 21 Players
Braves Pre-Arb Players
There’s a slew of player that are pre-arb eligible and their estimated salaries each for 2024 will be $750K. I’m sure the Braves will add and subtract to this mix as they always do. Still, it’s good practice to add at least 3 players making the minimum, so that’s what I’ll do.
Subtotal: $2.25MM for 3 players
Total: $187.3 MM for 24 players
Estimated Total for Entire 40-Man: ~$190MM
Replying to Rob in prior thread, whether it’s better to save money and spend at the deadline:
There’s a lot of hindsight bias in this kind of thinking. Basically, we look at the 2021 Braves and the 2022-23 Phillies, and we think why not win 90 games and a championship rather than get bounced as a 100-win team. The problem is there are a lot of teams who were in the same boat as the 2021 Braves and 2023 Phillies at the deadline–around .500, needed to get hot. In hindsight, it’s easy to say just do what those teams did. The problem is, you don’t know that you’re going to be able to make the right trades and get hot at the right time. You don’t know that you’re going to be able to acquire the right kind of players at the positions of need. A lot has to go right for you. You have a much greater chance if you are built to be a 100 game winner. If you build an 85-game winner, you’re a couple of injuries away from 75 wins, and you need everything to go just right to be the hot team in October.
We are also still dealing with small sample size regarding the new playoff model. My suspicion is that the 5-day layoff hurts, but if you go back 10 years, #1 seeds didn’t do all that well in short first round series even before the big layoff. It’s still quite possible that the Braves and Dodgers flops are just flukes, and we won’t approach certainty for a few years yet.
If I’m AA, I’m trading Fried this offseason. Between forearm tightness, blisters, and the fact that he’s gone after this year, it’s better to get 2-3 prospects (or 1 solid mid-rotation starter for 2-3 years) rather than keeping him. If the Braves were to trade both Fried and Ozuna, that would put $32.5MM back into AA’s gambling money. Sorry in advance to all the SuperFried fans.
Agree 100%. Keeping him is the “conservative” play that’s gonna look pretty bad when he barely pitches next year. Or he might be top-3 in the Cy Young again. Who knows. I just know he won’t be here in 2025 so it makes sense to get something now. Counterpoint: if we have to replace Morton, Fried, and Wright all at the same time, that might be a bridge too far, and maybe keeping one of Fried or Morton makes sense on paper.
I can’t imagine trading Fried without, like, signing someone like Yamamoto first (which is never going to happen).
But I’m also glad not to be the first/only commenter to have reservations about Fried, such that I probably wouldn’t give him the contract he could command.
Whatever pitcher you now have or acquire is a risk for injury (sufficient to either tragically lower effectiveness or preclude pitching at all). I figure at this point the Braves org is fairly good at identifying pitcher problems (we aren’t the Mets). So, I trust them to decide if Fried’s elbow is a banana peel waiting to slip or just pitcher crap. And yes, the blister thing is annoying, but it is probably something in how he achieves major league necessary spin rates. Also, if you keep him, it is likely you can get a comp pick after giving a qualifying offer. So, I would rather have Fried’s risk than what you could trade him for.
Agreed that we are at least one proven major league pitcher short. I mean that to also include Morton coming back. I believe at one year risk, he is likely to produce playoff caliber no. 3 results and you don’t have anywhere with as little money and as little commitment that you can find that.
Our quality starting pitching is so thin “suddenly”, I don’t think we can afford to trade Max and win big next year,
I feel like the Braves could get Sonny Gray on a 3 year deal. He’s a TN native, he’s about to turn 34, and could replace Fried’s production on the mound.
If you trade Fried, you have to get a major league mid-rotation (at worst) starter back. World Series contenders do not trade their best pitcher for prospects, period (or at least if they do, they’re not World Series contenders anymore) . If you do make that trade, you still need to sign (or trade for) a top-of-the-rotation starter in addition to that. And then if Morton retires, you need yet another mid-rotation starter.
Our rotation already wasn’t good enough, and Fried leaving makes it a one-man rotation with a bunch of shrug emojis after. And there are legitimate questions to be asked about whether two-pitch Spencer Strider is legitimately a No. 1 (the answer could very well be yes, but I wouldn’t assume that it is as a matter of course).
It seems like it would be a whole lot more prudent just to let Fried pitch on the arbitration contract next season unless you think his elbow’s about to disintegrate in the next 12 months.
“bunch of shrug emojis” lol. I agree that I would not trade Fried unless you get a historic return to include a young top of the rotation starter (why would that even be offered?) or you have inside info that he is a high injury risk
Hey all. I really messed up on those salaries as I left 2 off in the calculations. After arb, the estimated total is right at $200MM for the 40-man.
Unless we think Fried is going to implode, I think we probably get a better deal to resign him now on a 6 year deal than we do signing a Snell or comparable pitcher on the FA market. I don’t see how Fried is a particular injury risk even with his recent issues. I mean Zack Wheeler was a huge health risk as a FA and all he has done is shove in his 30’s. Lots of pitchers give you their best performance and durability after age 28.
If we are going to just let Fried walk bc of an organizational strategy not to pay pitchers, we just aren’t going to be a contender. We will have some impressive position talent under contract, a fun starter who can lead the league in K’s and then a bunch of journeymen and soft tossing 4/5 guys. As much love as AA gets, he is largely coasting on the young pitching acquisitions of Coppy, which were frankly exceptional. If he lets Fried walk, he will replace him with someone much worse and probably not save all that much money in the end.
My reasoning to trade him combine many factors:
1. Last year of contract and likely to head west.
2. Already had 1 TJ surgery.
3. Sat out over 1/2 a season with a forearm strain.
4. On top of the forearm strain, blisters put him out of commission several starts a year.
ZiPS projects Fried to have a 3.4 fWAR season next year. I’m not sure if these projections have been updated to reflect his injury-ridden 2023, but if he’s able to stay healthy, there’s no reason to assume he won’t have another great 3-4 fWAR season (or better).
I know that’s a big “if,” but I’m thinking the Braves would rather take their chances with Fried than give up their last guaranteed year of control.
Ranger Suarez is clearly the best pitcher of all time.
Sorry, this comment has nothing to do with your post, Boss – but I’m checking to see if my guy stampton just saw Alec Bohm strikeout in the bottom of the eighth and break his bat on the ground like a first grader at tee-ball? LOL
LOLOL. Watching the Phillies lose to the worst playoff team in MLB history was the next best thing to seeing my Braves win.
I mentioned a week ago that the Phillies looked unstoppable, and I would bet on them, but I also wouldn’t be suprised if they hit a wall. All this talk of being a team built for October is based on hindsight bias and small samples. It turns out the Phillies got hot for a week and the Diamondbacks got hot the next week.
Moreno’s AB vs him in the first inning was a thing of beauty. He took 4 pitches down and in. One was called a strike. The 3-1 pitch was low-middle and he lined it into right field for a base hit.
That’s baseball Suzyn.
Yup, that’s baseball… especially when you water down the post-season until it begins to resemble the Stanley Cup playoffs — #5 AL vs. #6 NL in the WS. Can’t be too surprised anymore.
Nonetheless, big up to Arizona for a helluva comeback & some serious smackdown moundwork. If Harper had hit a 3-run HR in the 7th last night, nobody in the world would’ve been shocked.
And I can’t say it breaks my heart to see a Rangers/D-Backs World Series. The Astros have won enough and, believe it or not, I’d begun to suffer from Phillie Phatigue.
Lick your wounds, Phils. See you in Florida.