Two months ago, I made a runs-scored and runs-allowed model in order to predict the probability that the Braves would win both the runs scored title (which they did, easily) and the runs allowed title (which they didn’t, easily.) Both of those results were pretty well predicted by the models, although to be fair almost any sensible model would probably have given a similar result.
I said at the time that once I had that model, I could do other things as well. One of them is predicting the 2023 playoffs. So here goes.
The Model, Modified
I’ve changed the model a bit since then. In particular, I’ve added the ERA of the starting pitcher for the opposing team in the runs-scored model and the ERA of the team’s own pitcher in the runs-allowed model. That’s great news for the accuracy of the model, but bad news for using the model for prediction purposes because we don’t know the identity of the pitchers for anything but the first round, and even there there’s uncertainty.
There are some good and not-so-good ways around this problem: (a) you can use with the model without ERA; (b) you can substitute some sort of average starter ERA; (c) you can guess matchups. The problem with (b) is that the guys who start in the playoffs are considerably better than your average starter. The problem with (c) is that you’re guessing.
I’m going to go with (a) for now, but once I know who the Braves are playing and I have a good sense of the matchups, I might switch over for the Division Series.
All the Numbers
Wild Card Round
| TOR vs. MIN: | TOR:0.51 | MIN:0.49 |
| TEX vs. TBR: | TEX:0.44 | TBR:0.56 |
| ARI vs. MIL: | ARI:0.43 | MIL:0.57 |
| PHI vs. MIA: | PHI:0.58 | MIA:0.42 |
League Division Series Round
| HOU vs. TOR: | HOU:0.51 | TOR:0.49 |
| HOU vs. MIN: | HOU:0.52 | MIN:0.48 |
| Overall —HOU: 0.52 | TOR: 0.25 | MIN:0.24 |
| BAL vs. TEX: | BAL:0.55 | TEX:0.45 |
| BAL vs. TBR: | BAL:0.48 | TBR:0.52 |
| Overall –-BAL: 0.51 | TEX: 0.20 | TBR:0.29 |
| LAD vs. ARI: | LAD:0.68 | ARI:0.32 |
| LAD vs. MIL: | LAD:0.60 | MIL:0.40 |
| Overall –-LAD: 0.63 | ARI: 0.14 | MIL:0.23 |
| ATL vs. PHI: | ATL:0.64 | PHI:0.36 |
| ATL vs. MIA: | ATL:0.72 | MIA:0.28 |
| Overall –-ATL: 0.67 | PHI: 0.21 | MIA:0.12 |
League Championship Series Round
| ATL | ||
| vs. | ARI: 0.74 | AggProb: 0.07 |
| vs. | MIL: 0.65 | AggProb: 0.10 |
| vs. | LAD: 0.54 | AggProb: 0.23 |
| LAD | ||
| vs. | PHI: 0.62 | AggProb: 0.08 |
| vs. | MIA: 0.72 | AggProb: 0.05 |
| vs. | ATL: 0.46 | AggProb: 0.20 |
| PHI | ||
| vs. | ARI: 0.59 | AggProb: 0.02 |
| vs. | MIL: 0.49 | AggProb: 0.02 |
| vs. | LAD: 0.38 | AggProb: 0.05 |
| TOR | ||
| vs. | TEX: 0.46 | AggProb: 0.02 |
| vs. | TBR: 0.38 | AggProb: 0.03 |
| vs. | BAL: 0.41 | AggProb: 0.05 |
| HOU | ||
| vs. | TEX: 0.48 | AggProb: 0.05 |
| vs. | TBR: 0.40 | AggProb: 0.06 |
| vs. | BAL: 0.42 | AggProb: 0.11 |
| MIN | ||
| vs. | TEX: 0.45 | AggProb: 0.02 |
| vs. | TBR: 0.38 | AggProb: 0.03 |
| vs. | BAL: 0.40 | AggProb: 0.05 |
| TBR | ||
| vs. | TOR: 0.62 | AggProb: 0.04 |
| vs. | MIN: 0.62 | AggProb: 0.04 |
| vs. | HOU: 0.60 | AggProb: 0.09 |
| TEX | ||
| vs. | TOR: 0.54 | AggProb: 0.03 |
| vs. | MIN: 0.55 | AggProb: 0.03 |
| vs. | HOU: 0.52 | AggProb: 0.05 |
| BAL | ||
| vs. | TOR: 0.59 | AggProb: 0.07 |
| vs. | MIN: 0.60 | AggProb: 0.07 |
| vs. | HOU: 0.58 | AggProb: 0.15 |
| ARI | ||
| vs. | PHI: 0.41 | AggProb: 0.01 |
| vs. | MIA: 0.52 | AggProb: 0.01 |
| vs. | ATL: 0.26 | AggProb: 0.02 |
| MIL | ||
| vs. | PHI: 0.51 | AggProb: 0.02 |
| vs. | MIA: 0.62 | AggProb: 0.02 |
| vs. | ATL: 0.35 | AggProb: 0.05 |
| MIA | ||
| vs. | ARI: 0.48 | AggProb: 0.01 |
| vs. | MIL: 0.38 | AggProb: 0.01 |
| vs. | LAD: 0.28 | AggProb: 0.02 |
World Series
| Teams | Pwin (Team 1( | Plose | Series Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI vs. TOR | 0.41 | 0.59 | 0.00 |
| ARI vs. MIN | 0.41 | 0.59 | 0.00 |
| ARI vs. HOU | 0.39 | 0.61 | 0.01 |
| ARI vs. TEX | 0.37 | 0.63 | 0.00 |
| ARI vs. TBR | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.01 |
| ARI vs. BAL | 0.32 | 0.68 | 0.01 |
| MIL vs. TOR | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.01 |
| MIL vs. MIN | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.01 |
| MIL vs. HOU | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.02 |
| MIL vs. TEX | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.01 |
| MIL vs. TBR | 0.39 | 0.61 | 0.02 |
| MIL vs. BAL | 0.42 | 0.58 | 0.03 |
| LAD vs. TOR | 0.62 | 0.38 | 0.03 |
| LAD vs. MIN | 0.63 | 0.37 | 0.03 |
| LAD vs. HOU | 0.61 | 0.39 | 0.07 |
| LAD vs. TEX | 0.59 | 0.41 | 0.04 |
| LAD vs. TBR | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.06 |
| LAD vs. BAL | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.10 |
| PHI vs. TOR | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.01 |
| PHI vs. MIN | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.01 |
| PHI vs. HOU | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.02 |
| PHI vs. TEX | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.01 |
| PHI vs. TBR | 0.38 | 0.62 | 0.02 |
| PHI vs. BAL | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.03 |
| MIA vs. TOR | 0.39 | 0.61 | 0.00 |
| MIA vs. MIN | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| MIA vs. HOU | 0.37 | 0.63 | 0.01 |
| MIA vs. TEX | 0.35 | 0.65 | 0.00 |
| MIA vs. TBR | 0.28 | 0.72 | 0.01 |
| MIA vs. BAL | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.01 |
| ATL vs. TOR | 0.66 | 0.34 | 0.04 |
| ATL vs. MIN | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.04 |
| ATL vs. HOU | 0.64 | 0.36 | 0.09 |
| ATL vs. TEX | 0.62 | 0.38 | 0.04 |
| ATL vs. TBR | 0.54 | 0.46 | 0.07 |
| ATL vs. BAL | 0.57 | 0.43 | 0.12 |
Overall Results Table
| Round | WC | LDS | LCS | WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Survival Prob | Survival Prob | Survival Prob | Survival Prob |
| ATL | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| LAD | 1.00 | 0.63 | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| BAL | 1.00 | 0.51 | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| HOU | 1.00 | 0.52 | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| TBR | 0.56 | 0.29 | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| TEX | 0.44 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| MIL | 0.57 | 0.23 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| TOR | 0.51 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| PHI | 0.58 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| MIN | 0.49 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| ARI | 0.43 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| MIA | 0.42 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
Baseball is amazing. You can be a historically great team and not even be as good as a coinflip to get to play in the championship round. In light of that, it has always been mind-boggling that out of 8 playoff appearances from 1996-2003, the Yankees made the world series 6 times and won it 4 times including 4 consecutive times. A results-minded person (which is really all of us–nobody is immune to cognitive biases) concludes that the Yankees were clutch. Maybe a more nuanced take is that the greatness of Mariano Rivera helped the Yankees win the close ones. But the truth is probably closer to amazing luck.
As much as I was frustrated with Bobby Cox for postseason managing blunders and always including a third catcher on the roster because what if something happened to the starter, and as much as I blamed Schuerholz for not getting a true closer, the 1990s Braves dynasty was more than anything just unlucky. The most unlucky series we played in had to be the 1993 NLCS where we outscored the Phillies 33-23 and lost 4 games to 2. We were a lot better than those Phillies, but in a 7 games series, only 1/3 of the variance is due to who is better and the rest is due to luck.
This magnificent team has lost 4 games in a row 4 different times this season. Two of those included multiple losses to the White Sox and Marlins, hardly powerhouses. We have put ourselves in position to not need quite as much luck as the Marlins to win a championship, but we still need a hearty dose to win.
The Braves’ slumps, I think, always came for a reason – heels of a tough winning series, layoff at the All Star break, something like that. The CWS debacle came after the All Star break. The MIA episode came after knocking the Phils out and clinching. Even the OAK episode came after a tough series against the Dodgers on a West Coast road trip. The HOU losses came after a long winning streak. The TOR losses came after tough series’ against MIA/BAL/BOS and before tough series’ against TEX/SEA/LAD. It was a long season and the Braves were the best team in the game.
The Braves’ record against winning teams is as good as their record against losing teams. I think it was OK (though frustrating) for them to have let downs against lesser teams in the regular season. The only playoff teams the Braves have a losing record against this year are the Astros and Blue Jays. We only have to face one of those two at most.
For that Yankees club, Rivera’s greatness was the constant. If you faced him in October, you could certainly consider yourself unlucky. His October numbers are simply astonishing. There has never been anyone like him in the post-season.
There were plenty of odd, genuinely unlucky things in the Braves post-seasons btw 1991 & 2005 — Hrbek/Gant, MetroDome AC shenanigans, RF ump getting in Jermaine Dye’s path in ’96 WS, Eric Gregg, etc. — but what also stung was the number of bullpen failures.
Whether it was Jeff Reardon (G2 ’92 WS), Greg McMichael (G1 ’93 NLCS), Mark Wohlers (G5 ’93 NLCS/G4 ’96 WS), Kerry Ligtenberg (G1 ’98 NLCS), Mike Remlinger (G3 ’99 WS), or Kyle Farnsworth (G4 ’05 NLDS), the Braves bullpen coughed up plenty of pivotal post-season games, certainly enough to fully appreciate what Rivera meant to those Yanks. If the Braves win any one of those games, things could’ve turned out differently that particular post-season.
And yes, the ’96 WS was easily the worst experience.
Man, ububba, that Rolodex of bullpen failures is going to keep me awake tonight. So much heartache and heartbreak in those moments. And yeah, Rivera was unbelievable in October!
ububba, Reardon still gives me night terrors. Regarding luck, there are the obvious sort of things we all remember like Dye, Gregg, or the infield fly rule, and then there’s just regular old batted ball luck and ball-strike type of luck that nobody remembers. Kerry Wood’s 2-out, bases-loaded, bloop double in game 1 of the 2003 NLDS decided that series. David Justice’s smash to center field in game 3 of the 1992 World Series is so often a double or homer, but it became the oddest double play (CF unassisted) I have ever seen. That one still makes me ill. There were just so many odd plays that seemed to go against us in crucial games.
Yep. But a 40% chance to get to the World Series is nothing to sneeze at. Me? I’ll never ever get over 1996… and 1991 felt so good to get there that you neglect how easily we could have won that one as well. So that would have been 3 or 4 out of 14 which is well above expectation. So while we were unlucky , we weren’t Minnesota-eighteen-losses-in-a-row unlucky. Not even close.
You are some kind of cheat-code, JonathanF. Those numbers have my head spinning, and I like the Braves chances. My hope is that our top two pitcher pitch, and that at least three of our hitters hit. Oh, and I hope the Marlins force a Game 3 tonight. The Phillies having to burn up both Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez make feel a whole lot better going into Saturday.
Regarding the entire post-season, this is what I want to remind myself along the way: This team has been phenomenal and such a joy to watch all season long. The playoff system does not reward the best baseball team, though. It rewards the hottest team at the time (insert the ’21 Braves here) and I daresay even punishes the best teams with the days off and the short series. Make the Wild Card series five games, and the NLDS and World Series seven-game series and it is more fair to the best teams. I hate that the best are punished for being the best…because the Braves are the best team in baseball in 2023.
Best team from USA plays best team from Canada in a 21-game, winner-take-all world series. Boom
Sold! Except we’re not good against the Blue Jays 😂
Anyone here have an extra ticket for Saturdays game? It might be the only one I can go to this postseason. Obviously, I’ll pay!
Well, looks like it’s gonna be Philly on Saturday afternoon…
And 4 WC sweeps (if Az hangs on)… 2 home, 2 road
With Wheeler having the potential for two starts. Buckle up, boys,