The prestaging for the postseason continued. As of last night, the Braves have clinched the home field advantage through the NL playoffs. The magic number to have World Series home field advantage is now 1. So unless the Braves lose the last 4 and the Orioles win their last 4, we add that (however slight) advantage. All in all, a pretty good “Winsday.”
The last two nights it seemed as if the offense said “hmm, the starting pitching is craps and scraps, so we better keep it going.” One issue in early clinching is if the team lets up and can’t get it going again. This offense seems to have taken a breath, and then put it right back together.
Many new words are created by technology. Sometimes, older words become more fashionable or amenable to the broad masses. In recent years, one that emerged from somewhere was “penultimate.” I had thought the ultimate pen was the Cincinnati Reds “Nasty Boys” or the 2002 Braves. Such a word which has become common on Braves Journal is “cromulent.” This means acceptable or adequate.” For this set of Braves to get through this remaining season, the level of starting pitching we need is more like “just not damn awful.” Last night, Darius Vines probably met “cromulent” but certainly exceeded “just not damn awful.”
The line of the Vines was 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER (and we will talk about the one unearned run a little more), 5 K, 2 BB, 90 pitches with 55 for strikes. In analyzing this performance against “adequate” and “acceptable”, with this offense, that is pretty good. In fact, it is one EARNED run better than a “minimal quality start.” So, thanks to Darius and looking for continued success for him.
As to the UNEARNED run, this is apparently one of the great umpire fails of the replay era. Part of the reason is that it was a “non reviewable” situation. Did the bat hit the ball (foul ball) or was it a swinging strike with a catcher miss (passed ball). I think it is a situation where the other 3 umpires were more worried about not getting shown up on their mistakes than getting the call correct. But the first Cubs run probably doesn’t score without that umpire screw up.
The remaining 4 innings (that is right, one inning of “free baseball”) were handled by Michael Tonkin (2IP,10 H, 0 BB, 3 K, hooray that there wasn’t an “Incident”), Kirby Yates (who gave up 1 in an inning to turn a tie into a “trail”), and Jesse (how do we love thee, let us count the ways) Chavez who got a win for only allowing the Manfred Man to score in top of 10.
The offense got 1 in the first “as is its custom.” But then it got to 3 to 1 Cubs before the Braves bats started the frightening sequence. In 7, the Braves almost got it going and got one on a probable double play in which Nico Hoerner tried to flip with the glove and missed Dansby Swanson. that only scored 1. Then Ronald Acuna, Jr. got a one out single in 8, stole second base (for number 69) and Ozzie Albies singled him home. That tied is up at 3, but not for long. Then, in 9, Yates gave up one and then in the bottom Marcel Ozuna earned the beer joint by homering to tie the game and send it to the 10th.
As aforesaid, Chavez couldn’t stop the Manfred Man, but Acuna then singled in our Manfred Man, stole second (number 70 as in 40 / 70) an, Ozzie drove him in with a single to win it and walk it off,
So, little to play for except not getting people hurt, getting people well, getting people a little rest without letting them get rusty, and figuring out which pitchers to take on the postseason roster.
What an amazing year. God, I wish Mac could have seen Ronald.
What a fun game that was. I know I’m incredibly biased, but in my mind, Ronald cemented his MVP case last night. And how about Ozzie continuing to come through in these big moments? He’s been great all year, but with all the attention understandably being focused on Ronald and Matt, his performance (and that of others, like Austin Riley) has sort of flown under the radar. Ozzie’s almost at 4.0 WAR now.
If Dansby holds the ball, is Ronnie out? I walked in the door just before Ozzie singled and only saw the replay.
Hard to say as Dansby had to jump off the base to reach the ball anyway.
OK, so who would rather have Vines or Winans start instead of Elder? All of a sudden now, there’s some real choosing to do on the pitching staff. Chavez is back. Which of Wright, Vines, and Winans should be the long man or piggyback in the pen?
Right now, I would rather have either Vines or Winans start over Elder. I expect Snitker to “go with the one that brung him.” For multi inning pitchers without respect to role (starter, multi inning guy, bulk guy, opener) I would rate them Wright (he has looked o.k. and has the greatest short term upside), Winans (He has at least pitched “o.k.” on several occasions which means we can outscore what he allows more easily), Vines (small sample, but not crappy), then Elder. Elder should only be used (for me) in event of need for MANY innings (everybody is pitched out or extra innings, etc.) or when behind and needing innings and hoping to hold it as is (again, mostly if everybody else is really taxed). Elder may have better days of pitching ahead of him, but since the All Star break, this is just not good.
The only argument for Betts in the MVP race is that his WAR might be slightly higher (haven’t checked lately but it was a tick higher). His WAR is higher only because of superior defense. Not saying defense doesn’t matter, but the voters tend to discount it steeply if not ignore it. For example, Andrelton Simmons had 7.9 WAR compared with Altuve’s 7.7 several years ago but Altuve won the MVP while Simmons finished 9th. Aaron Judge actually finished 2nd with 8.0, but I think that’s an example of voters valuing premium positions like middle infield over pure sluggers. You also have the sexiness of a 40/70 season and a gaudy batting average, and I don’t think there’s anyway a significant portion of voters turn into WAR-obsessed bean counters and ignore that for the abstractness of right field dWAR.
Currently, Fangraphs has Betts at 8.3 WAR and Ronnie at 8.0 WAR. Since WAR isn’t meant to be a precise measurement and is really meant to help us separate players into different talent levels, a difference of 0.3 WAR is pretty negligible. Like you, I tend to think (and sincerely hope) that voters won’t be too preoccupied with who ends up with the highest WAR total by season’s end.
It’s worth noting that while Betts has been better in the field than Ronnie, he hasn’t exactly been great. He grades out at -3 OAA at 2B and -1 OAA in the outfield. Sure, it’s great that he can play multiple positions, but I sure hope voters don’t give him the nod just for that reason, because the defense hasn’t been stellar.
These two guys have been equally valuable for their respective teams, but Ronald is having an historically great season, not to mention the fact that he has been consistently productive all year. I’m super biased, obviously, but I’d give my vote to RAJ.
For what it’s worth, BRef has Betts at 8.5 WAR and RAJ at 8.2, so the same difference.
The WAR difference is relatively negligible, certainly within any margin of error.
The argument for Acuña is, really, the round numbers: it’s like when Miguel Cabrera won the MVP because he had the Triple Crown. There’s something awe-inspiring about the sheer numbers. Beyond that, Ronald is pretty easily, pretty obviously the best offensive player in all of baseball; by Fangraphs, his Offense Above Average is 69.1 runs, more than 10% better than Mookie, who’s in second place, at 61.9.
The argument for Betts, really, is the word “Valuable” in MVP. When his team suffered catastrophic injury, he gamely agreed to play shortstop, which he had never played in the major leagues, and then allowed his manager to plug him in in the infield or the outfield depending on need. (Sort of like when Freddie temporarily agreed to move over to third base – but that was much earlier in his career!)
And – unlike Troy Glaus at shortstop – by all accounts, he has been a good defender both in the infield and in the outfield. Ronald, unfortunately, fails the eyeball test for outfield defense: while his arm is terrific, his routes remain atrocious.
If I weren’t a Braves fan, I’d be happy for either guy to win, and frankly, I wouldn’t be sorry if they awarded a co-MVP. I think they have both been equally valuable, though they get to that value in different ways.
(As a lengthy aside, I also think it’s pretty incredible that Betts has basically been the second-best player in baseball for nearly a decade – first behind Trout, then behind Ohtani. He’s just 30 and he’s pretty much already a Hall of Famer. Acuña certainly has the talent to be in that conversation, but not yet the track record. And, again, I just feel like his defense holds him back from Best Player in Baseball discussions, even though it obviously doesn’t keep him from being MVP-worthy this year.)
As a Braves fan, of course, I’d love Ronald to win!