Last week, I sat in this very seat recapping a somewhat frustrating but ultimately not-the-end-of-the-world loss to the Giants. The game was winnable and the Braves had had a chance to sweep their opponents from San Francisco, but in the end, two out of three ain’t bad…or something like that.
Well this week, I can tell you that tonight’s game was winnable and the Braves had a chance to sweep their opponents from San Francisco, but in the end, two out of three ain’t bad…or something like that.
Jared Shuster got the start in this one, and truth be told, he wasn’t very good, especially early. He allowed a run in each of the first two innings and left after 4.2 with four runs on his ledger, which he allowed on four hits and two walks. He had some help with those second two runs, though, about which more in a second.
Shuster did hold the Giants scoreless in the third and fourth innings, though, and that allowed the Braves a chance to get back into the game in the fifth. Matt Olson walked to lead off the inning and, with one out, Eddie Rosario doubled to put runners at second and third. Travis d’Arnaud followed with a two-run single to tie the game and, after an Orlando Arcia infield single, scored on a Nicky Lopez single to left, giving Atlanta a 3-2 lead.
However, the replay umps seemed to invent an out on a bizarre play one batter later. There was an extra throw to get Acuna at first and then Arcia tried to score and seemed to, as it sure seemed like Giants catcher Patrick Bailey missed the swipe tag on him and the call on the field was safe. They came back and overturned the safe call, though, meaning Atlanta had to settle for three runs and the one-run lead.
That sent us to the bottom of the inning, and Shuster got himself into a jam by allowing two runners on but struck out Thairo Estrada for the second out. What the harm would’ve been in allowing him to face the next batter and get out of his own jam with two outs and 83 pitches in the fifth inning, I don’t know, but Snit came out and went to Collin McHugh.
All McHugh did was have maybe the worst relief outing I’ve seen all year. 1.1 innings, 3 hits, 4 runs, 4 walks, and he obviously allowed both of his inherited runners to score as well. The talk in the game thread about how this loss was all his fault inspired me to go to Fangraphs to see what his WPA for this game was, and it didn’t disappoint. It was minus-.626. Now look…I’m not an expert on all the ins and outs of WPA, but unless I miss my guess, one player being responsible for 62.6 percent of a loss in WPA is probably not good.
Put another way, if I go up to the win probability chart, the Braves had a roughly 60 percent chance to win the game when he entered and a roughly 95 percent chance to lose when he left. That’ll happen from time to time when you’re the closer, but it’s quite a feat when you’re pitching the fifth and sixth innings.
There was a Marcell Ozuna two-run homer that seemed to maybe get the Braves back in the game, but McHugh allowed two more runs in the next half-inning and that was pretty much that.
So not a great game, but I’d have said that winning the series in San Francisco and Denver and splitting the one in LA (or most other results with the equivalent 6-4 overall record) would constitute a successful road trip, and we’re on the road to doing just that so far.
I don’t have a whole lot to add to the conversation about what to do with McHugh going forward. I kind of think it unlikely that the front office would DFA him and I continue to be queasy about the “fake IL” talk. But he did take a somewhat nasty-looking spill on his way to backup a play during this outing, so maybe he tweaked an ankle or something… If you’re wondering about next year, he’s got a $6 million club option with a $1 million buyout. I do believe I might take the buyout at this point.
I was fully on board with McHugh coming back, but his K-rate, which has always been solid, is down to 7.11 while his BB-rate is 3.56. It’s the lowest K rate of his career and the 2nd highest walk rate.
Thanks Nick.
I thought from the first base dugout angle that Bailey nicked Arcia. I’m not sure I’d have overturned it, but I’m not entirely objective.
It’s frustrating for anyone who’s invested time in watching a game when a manager doesn’t pull out all the stops to win it, but Snitker has a bigger picture in mind than the results of August 27th.
I couldn’t tell for certain whether he touched him or not from the video. To me that’s exactly the kind of call that should be left to stand, particularly since the ump was in perfect position and had the best view of the play.
I think we have enough evidence to know that it’s a losing proposition to bring in McHugh in a high leverage situation.
ballard.jim@yahoo.com
I think Snit kept McHugh in as an audition for the playoff roster.
From the postgame interview, Snit made it clear that he was resting his key bullpen arms for the upcoming series against the Dodgers and Rockies; it was McHugh’s turn up, and he failed to get it done. Now the ball’s in AA’s court. But Snit made it clear he wasn’t going to manage to win that game at all costs. In my view, that’s appropriate, even if from a fan’s perspective it feels like McHugh is awfully hard to trust right now.
https://theathletic.com/4811549/2023/08/27/braves-bullpen-strength-collin-mchugh/
Having dug into some of the numbers, I’m going to have to write the comment that Fun Police would have made.
In August, McHugh has made 8 appearances and pitched 12 2/3 innings, with a 3.55 ERA and a 3.90 FIP. He’s struck out 13, walked 7, and allowed an opponents’ triple slash of .225/.321/.327. His BABIP this month is .286, which is low, but it’s also basically just a regression from his overall BABIP this year of .343; his career mark is .305.
Overall this year, his ERA is 3.88 and FIP is 4.03. However you fractally slice his performance over the course of the year, he’s been somewhere between mediocre and slightly above average. Decidedly worse than he was last year, when he was a true weapon in our bullpen, but also decidedly Not A Problem.
His velocity across all his pitches is indistinguishable from last season; the worst things about his performance this year are that his strikeout rate has noticeably fallen while his walk rate has risen. So his control has slipped a bit, he’s getting slightly fewer swinging strikes and inducing many fewer swings outside the strike zone, which is exactly what happened last night.
All in all, though, he’s been exactly the pitcher Snit has used him as: a mediocre-to-average long reliever who’s just barely this side of above average. While he has the occasional Episode, he has generally provided value to the team. Snitker’s refusal to bring a high-leverage reliever into the game in the middle of the fifth inning before the team heads to the thin air of Coors Field is entirely defensible on the merits. It sucks that McHugh had a terrible game, but Snit has used him appropriately this year and he actually hasn’t been awful this year. He has been, essentially, a better version of Josh Tomlin.
Yes, McHugh is not a disaster but I’ll repeat my comment from last night. What would be the difference with DFA’ing McHugh, activating Lee, and giving McHugh’s innings to Tonkin?
I think it’s pretty clear at this point that either their plans for Dylan Lee don’t align with yours or that he’s suffered a setback. He hasn’t pitched for Gwinnett in a week. I saw something where they asked Snit about it and he said that was part of the plan, and that he threw a simulated game this weekend. So believe that or don’t, but either way, that doesn’t seem like the appearance schedule for somebody who’s about to be activated off the IL.
At one point, it sounded like the team was trying to stretch out Lee. Do we still think that’s the plan?
It seems to me that he must have had a setback, otherwise not pitching for 8 days when the rosters are about to expand makes no sense.
As much as it pains me to say this, Mookie Betts is the MVP. fWAR has him much higher because he’s out-slugging Acuna and is much better defensively. I do think the truly incredible 30/60 fact might push Acuna over the top considering a lot of the voters love counting stats and Acuna has the more compelling counting stats.
I’m really struggling with fully appreciating just how great this run has been and not just getting bored with winning. Anybody struggling with the same thing? If you’re a Georgia sports fan and therefore also love the Dawgs, are you struggling to fully take in just how incredible the Braves/Dawgs conglomerate has become?
I think what I’m most interested right now is understand how those last 5 roster spots will take shape. I think if a playoff-quality 4th starter emerges and the bullpen has a clear pecking order, then all of my questions are quelled. This might be the most complete Braves team going into a playoff run in my lifetime if those take shape.
I do think 99% of teams would be thrilled with Elder as a 4th starter.
I guess I’m just irrationally holding out hope that Soroka or Wright can establish himself as a 4th option. I know I probably shouldn’t, but I would prefer not to have Elder starting a playoff game if we can avoid it.
Albies is back. Vines is up. Shuster and Grissom back down.
RIP, Pat Corrales.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/08/charlie-mortons-continued-late-career-success.html
So, the Braves need to decide about that option. I think it’s a slam dunk to pick it up.
Number of guys spending enough time on the mound to qualify for the ERA title last 3 years:
2021 – 39
2022 – 45
2023 – 57 (and that number will probably go down as guys fall off in September)
So if I want to value, say, per WAR what a veteran SP is worth on the FA market, I need to probably start you off at 1 or 1.5 WAR if you’re on those lists. Just having a guy good enough and healthy enough to make 30 starts is its own value. And he’s earned 2.4 fWAR with his performance. So however you want to weight and quantify that, he’s worth more than your typical 2.4 fWAR FA. I would just keep handing him $20M installments until he proves he can’t do it anymore. We’ve paid him $60M to give us 8.4 fWAR and counting. So if he ends up becoming a guy who is league average, has a couple IL stints, and puts in a disappointing year, we’ve gotten full squeeze. And not to be cliche, but he’s clearly a “coach on the field and in the dugout” kinda guy.
Apparently this is what the other d’Arnaud boy is up to nowadays.