This bar is now closed. Someone come get Jonathan F. He fell asleep in his Glenfiddich again.
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Pieces Discussed in the Bar:
The Bar, 8/16-9/5
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Looking at the numbers, it seems like Soroka’s time in AAA via option (this is his last option year), instead of being down on injury rehab (as he was in 2020, 2021, and 2022) has delayed his service time accrual, and might actually yield us an extra year of control?
Specifically, he’s at 4.122 years of service time. Since 4.172 constitutes 5 years, that means he should finish 2023 with less than 5 years service, as there’s less than 50 days left in the season.
So while all publications indicate he’d be a FA after 2024, I think that’s not true, as he’d be less than 6 years service at the end of 2024. So he’d still be a Brave in 2025.
Am I wrong? If that’s true, it potentially explains the numerous demotions in favor of options like Chirinos, and seems like a shrewd move, given Soroka’s drawn $2M+ for the last three years simply to rehab. Thoughts?
My Boy “Boggy” over at Knockahoma Nation (via X or Twitter, whichever you prefer) has the date as 9/13 and I’d bet my house that he’s right.
That’s interesting, because it seems like it should already be impossible for him to get to 4.172 this year. Fangraphs says the MLB schedule is like 183 days long, but if you eclipse 172, you still only get 172 days of credit. Which means that even if he’s active for all of 2024, he’d still finish short of 5.172 by the end of next season, and thus not qualify for Free Agency.
Can’t say I disagree with your friend, just trying to understand the math of it.
Here’s a great article that explains the relevancy of 13 Sept. It’s all predicated on the idea that the service-time calculators online (4.122) don’t update real-time, so with the days Soroka already spent in MLB this year, he’s actually at more like 4.152, only 20 days away from a full 5 years. Hence waiting longer.
If I’m AA, I’d just roll the below until Wright comes back. At the end.of the day, the body of Soroka’s MiLB and MLB stats don’t compare to Winan’s 2023. It feels like bringing Acuna back last year, he’s only capable of being a shadow of his old self. Probably the best thing for Soroka is to finish in AAA, and prepare to be in our rotation next year, full time. Hopefully with a year of rehab under his belt, his 2024 catapults him right back to where he was, similar to Acuna’s 2023 bounce back.
1) Fried
2) Strider
3) Morton
4) Elder
5) Winans
https://www.si.com/mlb/braves/analysis/explaining-the-michael-soroka-service-time-manipulation-thing
Lugbauer’s turning 27 in a week, so he’s as strong as he’ll ever be, and he’s struck out 311 times in his last 841 plate appearances. To me, his success this year appears largely driven by a BABIP spike – he has a BABIP of .370 this year, which is 55 points higher than his career minor league BABIP of .315.
That goes a long way toward explaining why his batting average this year is .283, which is exactly 56 points higher than his career minor league batting average of .227.
Now, it could be that he really has figured something out. But he has his work cut out for him. Because they don’t put the ball in play that often, three true outcomes guys often have a pretty low BABIP. (Gallo’s is .256.)
Even with his solid walk rate, he’s going to have a tough time getting on base enough to stay above the Mendoza line.
I think this is where I am too.
I could see a very small handful of minor league players being able and willing to make an adjustment towards more contact as a result of their career stalling and the recent rules changes. The question is whether he’s barreling balls more than he has in the past, and we don’t have that data do we? If we don’t, the scouts know if he’s getting lucky or he’s barreling balls. But I could certainly see a guy saying that his desire to be Dave Kingman ain’t working out too well and the rules are telling him he oughta hit a few more line drives. And we’re a good enough org to help a player make that happen.
I have faith that although the 21 yr old Ryan may not have rounded the bases all the way home very often, due to his persistence and stellar personality, he made consistent quality contact.
Quality contact! So many interpretations! LOL!
If you haven’t read JF’s MVP Race article (got buried a bit), I think that many voters would have a hard time putting Matt Olson 2nd on the MVP ballot should he surpass 60 HRs.
For Freddie, I think old schoolers won’t vote for him because his stats are extraordinary, but the counting stats are the eye catchers.
Prediction: RAJ wins it unless Olson hits 62.
RAJ and Freddie’s stats are indistinguishable other than the 40 extra stolen bases. Those 40 extra steals are really important, but RAJ also has 9 caught stealings to Freddie’s 1. (Interesting note: in LA, Freddie has 29 steals with 4 caught stealing. In 12 years in Atlanta, he had 53 steals with 24 caught stealing, essentially a minus stat. He’s obviously being coached by the ghost of Maury Wills. I would credit his manager instead, but… nahhh.)
In any case, Ryan, I’d say that RAJ leads Freddie by a reasonable margin barring a September swoon. But I wouldn’t count Freddie out yet. As to Matt, I’m not even sure 62 homers does it if RAJ ends up with 70 steals or more…. particularly if RAJ can reach 100 RBIs, which is far from out of reach. The last guy to have 70 steals and 100 RBIs was Ty Cobb,
JonathonF makes a good point. If Ronald gets to 70 steals and 100 RBI it will be tough…but Olson at 60+ and 150+ is pretty damn valuable.
Yes, Olson’s having one of those years where, in the past, the top HR/RBI combo usually took the award… but, unless there’s an injury or offensive freefall, I can’t imagine RAJ’s accumulation of impressive numbers across the board won’t win him the MVP.
Also, fwiw, Freddie is 16 for 17 stealing bases this year. Great player. Reminds me of that 2-year stretch where Johnny Bench was 24 for 26 on the bases.
See my note above.
I assume RAJ’s steals success this year is in part the result of the new rules – the throwover limit and the larger bases – as he doesn’t look any faster to me than he was pre-injury, maybe a bit slower. (Don’t know what BaseballSavant says about his sprint speed.). I don’t know why so few other players are running, though. If everyone else was running successfully and often too, his numbers would be less impressive.
Freddie was not a successful base stealer early in his career, but he was 26-9 on steal attempts in his last four years in Atlanta. 29-4 in LA is better than that, but, depending on how much of a difference you think the new rules are making, it may not be dramatically better.
https://www.mlb.com/news/ronald-acuna-jr-s-historic-stolen-base-season
Here’s a great article by David Adler detailing how Ronald has been so successful in the stolen base department this year.
You’re correct in saying that his speed actually hasn’t been a huge factor. Per Adler, his 50th percentile sprint speed is 28.5 ft/sec., which is good not but not great. Essentially, he’s running more frequently, taking bigger primary and secondary leads, and is inducing plenty of disengagements.
Christian: Let me grant the premise that the Braves would have a much worse record without either of them. That doesn’t help answer the question. That’s a tie! So what’s the tiebreaker?
To me, doing something no one has ever done before breaks the tie. Unless Olson gets 191 RBI he’s not going to do anything that hasn’t been done before. To be sure, the company he’s in is the company of a whole lot of MVPs. But Ronald’s 2023 stands alone statistically at the same time he is invaluable to the team. That’s the tiebreaker for me.
Nah. Just watch the difference between when Acuna gets on base and when he doesn’t. That spark makes him deserving of the MVP.
Hear me out…I’ve tracked back to 1949. Nobody (save the juiced Sammy Sosa) has done both – hit for 60 and 150. Roger Maris was close in 1961 (61, 142).
Granted, Ronald has already hit some numbers nobody ever has, but driving the ball AND eclipsing 150 RBI is MVP worthy.
First, steroid-era records count for me. YMMV.
Second, even if he manages 60/150, a lot of the 150 comes from… RAJ.
Third, if RAJ manages 70/100, last done by Ty frickin’ Cobb in 1915, then how do you compare that with 60/150? (which Babe frickin’ Ruth just missed: (59/168 in 1921, 60/165 in 1927 … and the 165 didn’t lead the AL))
PS: both would be fantastic, and I’m rooting for both.
I agree on all fronts, JonathanF. Stirring the pot, bro…cheering them both on.
In the 1991 analogy, wouldn’t Acuna and Olson be more similar to Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonilla? Same with Freeman and Betts, for that matter. Under that scenario, this year’s Terry Pendleton is likely to be somebody who single-handedly lifts a team into a wild card spot or something. Because you could easily argue that neither Olson nor Acuna are singularly responsible for winning the division if we continue to cruise to it.
To me:
Acuna Jr.
Freeman
Olson
I can’t have an MVP that hits in the .270s but that’s just me. The Braves would miss RAJ more than Olson, IMO.
As far as the stealing, if you’re fast, given the current rules and pitch clock and throw over rules, you should be stealing 2nd or trying every time. And this from someone who was incredibly fast in HS and whose game was built on speed, but who now loves the 3 run HR.
And the answer to Drew Lugbauer is, no.
Christian, I appreciate your stirring up a debate, but I want to challenge a number of your arguments.
What’s the case that Ronald is a better player than Ohtani? I think Ronald has been the best player in the National League, but as others have pointed out, he’s not a lock to win; Betts and Freeman have been very good, too, and Freeman’s offensive line is roughly identical to Ronald’s apart from the stolen bases.
But Ohtani is genuinely doing things that no one in the history of major league baseball has done: he is simultaneously one of the top few pitchers in baseball and also one of the top few hitters in baseball, while doing both full time. Babe Ruth couldn’t even manage to do that. Shohei’s in GOAT territory. I love Ronald, but while his power-speed combination makes him one of the best players of his generation, his accomplishments are not nearly as unfathomable.
On the WAR side, Ohtani’s 6.1 offensive WAR are nearly identical to Acuña’s 6.2, (and to Betts’s 6.1 and Freeman’s 6.0); he’s also contributed 2.3 pitching WAR. That’s 8.4 to 6.2; they’re just not in the same stratosphere.
This sentence pretty much concedes that Olson has been the second-best player on his own team. So how could he be the best in the league?
Matt Olson’s got about as good an MVP case as Ha-Seong Kim, I think. He’s pretty clearly in the top five, particularly as Corbin Carroll and his Diamondbacks have dramatically tailed off. Of course, if the Diamondbacks are able to make the playoffs, Carroll still has the best chance at a Pendleton-esque candidacy. But I just don’t see any argument that Olson’s been the Most Valuable Player, aside from the fact that he leads the league in RBIs, but of course that’s largely due to the fact that he hits behind the best player in the league, who also happens to lead the league in getting on base!
On Babe Ruth: His 1918 and 1919 seasons suggest that he was able to do it both ways at same time at the level that Ohtani is playing now, and let’s not forget that there was no DH. When Ohtani is playing RF on days he is not pitching, and when he can’t hit after he comes off the mound — then we can make a comparison.
No knock on Ohtani – he is one among two. But probably not the better of the two. I mean, half as many teams back then, to be sure, no international players, and especially no African-Americans…. Still, Ruth was three times a World Series champion as a pitcher with the Red Sox, and throughout my youth he was still remembered as the (former) recordholder for the longest scoreless innings streak in the World Series, for over 40 years.
Ruth only started 19 games as a pitcher in 1918, and 15 games in 1919; he only played 95 games in the field in 1918, and 130 in 1919. He was more of a part-time starter and most-of-the-time fielder. Ohtani’s a full-time pitcher and full-time hitter.
Now, Ruth’s offensive performance was still the greatest that anyone has ever mustered in the history of anything, but while his performance may “suggest” he could do it at the same time at the same level that Ohtani is doing it now, he didn’t actually do it.
I guess it depends on the antecedent of “it.” To me, “it” means hitting, pitching, and playing in the field. Ruth was doing all three in 1918 and 1919 (note that his IP in those years are the same as those for Ohtani in 2022 and 2023, respectively). Alas, because of rule changes, we’ll never get to see Ohtani do all three. Just N. Lopez.
Think of the games where Ohtani has a blister, leaves the mound, never goes back in the field, and hits a HR later… Never available to Ruth. Conversely, how many ABs would Ohtani be getting if the day before a start he would have to be playing RF in order to get them? Ohtani is a fantastic physical specimen with a great work ethic. I think he could pull it off. But we’ll never know.
I guess the other way to think about it — for me at least — is that with today’s rules, Ruth would probably have pitched more and longer. But we’ll never know that, either.
Just clicked through to this, at https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/Babe-Ruth/ (and now I promise to give it a rest!)
““I don’t think a man can pitch in his regular turn, and play every other game at some other position, and keep that pace year after year,” Ruth said. “I can do it this season all right, and not feel it, for I am young and strong and don’t mind the work. But I wouldn’t guarantee to do it for many seasons.”11 Ruth then began what is likely the greatest nine- or ten-week stretch of play in baseball history. From mid-July to early September 1918, Ruth pitched every fourth day, and played either left field, center field, or first base on the other days. Ruth’s double duty was not unique during the Deadball Era — a handful of players had done both — but his level of success was (and remains) unprecedented.12
“In one 10-game stretch at Fenway, Ruth hit .469 (15-for-32) and slugged .969 with four singles, six doubles, and five triples. He was remarkably adept at first base, his favorite position. On the mound, he allowed more than two runs only once in his last ten starts. The Colossus, as Babe was known in Boston, maintained his status as a top pitcher while simultaneously becoming the game’s greatest hitter.
“Ruth’s performance led the Red Sox to the American League pennant, in a season cut short by the owners, partially because of dwindling attendance. All draft-age men were under government order to either enlist or take war-related employment — in shipyards or munitions factories, for example — which led to paltry turnouts of less than 1,000 for many afternoon games that summer.
“Ruth opened the World Series on September 5 against the Chicago Cubs with a 1-0 shutout. He pitched well in Game Four, despite having bruised his left hand during some horseplay on the train back to Boston, and his double drove in what turned out to be the winning runs. Those performances, together with his extra-inning outing in 1916, gave Ruth a record of 29⅔ consecutive scoreless World Series innings, one of the records Ruth always said he was most proud of.13 His streak was finally broken by Whitey Ford of the Yankees in the 1960s.”
I’m curious as to how much expected statistics should factor into MVP voting. Expected stats (like xwOBA and xSLG for hitters, xFIP and xERA for pitchers) are often some of the first stats I look at when evaluating a player because they generally focus on things like contact quality and remove the external factors that are outside of the player’s control (BABIP luck, HR/FB variance, etc.).
Per Fangraphs, RAJ leads MLB in xwOBA (.455), meaning his contact quality (exit velocity, launch angle, etc.) has been better than anyone else’s. In fact, it’s head and shoulders above the rest of the league. Freeman is 3rd in MLB at .416, Betts is at .407, and Olson is at .401. However, Ronald has been on the receiving end of some bad luck, as his actual wOBA is only .423. The other main MVP candidates – Freeman, Betts, Olson, Ohtani – have all been luckier while not producing the inputs that Ronald has.
I’m certainly not suggesting that expected stats are the end-all, be-all. Ultimately, the idea of the MVP Award is to acknowledge the player who has done the most to help his team win games. One has to wonder, though, just how much MORE valuable Ronald could be if that wOBA-xwOBA gap weren’t so big.
We’ve had some interesting fights on this board over expected stats when it comes to postseason awards before. I continue to believe that expected stats should all be completely thrown in the trash when evaluating a season that actually happened on the field. You should use the stats that the player actually produced. Thinking too hard about what “should” have happened as opposed to focusing on what did is the opposite of what we should be doing when evaluating a season or a career or something that actually happened.
I still value the spark that Ronald gives the offense. To me, he is a singular motivator for the offense and deserving of league MVP. It’s not really because of Olson that the Braves lead the world in 1st inning runs.
Greetings from Hollywood, Calif…
Gonna get an upfront view of the 2 Dodger MVP candidates tonight vs. Miami’s Sandy Alcantara.
Go Marlins, I guess…
Yo Alex… Comments not enableď on your recap.
So I’ll say here that Bill James once speculated that some part of the lengthy Cubs absence from the WS (this was a piece in the 80s) could be attributed to the Cubs uniquely playing day games in hot weather down the stretch and getting worn down.
Maybe night-time outdoors in Atlanta is the new daytime in Wrigleyville.
Thank you – fixed!
Also, interesting. If I remember correctly, Henry Aaron wrote in his autobiography that he gave advice to young players like Dusty Baker that he believed that they owed about 155-160 games a year to the team, and being able to play nearly every day meant taking the occasional off day just to stay fresh.
The A’s celebrate their elimination from playoff contention by bringing up Sean Newcomb.
The Ohtani news is awful for baseball and, I hate to admit, probably good for the Braves.
The link to the Bar on Christian’s post has been fixed.
I think the larger base is certainly a factor in the large increase in stolen bases, but the strict rules limiting the number of pickoffs seems bigger. As the announcers have pointed out, we’ve hardly seen any violations – meaning that basically no pitcher is even maxing out their pickoff throws, meaning that the number of throws has been hugely reduced and the chances of getting picked off have hugely fallen.
Actually… JonathanF, are you tracking pickoffs as a discrete event, or just CS generally?
Also, looks like Donaldson’s available:
https://theathletic.com/4816184/2023/08/29/josh-donaldson-released-yankees/
In the Retrosheet database, which won’t be out until November for this season, you can tell the difference between a pickoff and a CS by the catcher’s assist on the play. The Stathead database allows me to see both, so maybe I’ll try to put together a 2023 vs 2022 comparison by pitcher
If I’ve read Stathead correctly, pickoffs are actually up this year, roughly equalling pickoffs for the last two seasons with a month left to go. To an economist, this makes sense, since the extra aggression on the bases ought to lead to more pickoffs as well.
Ryan’s tweet projected 2023 MLB steals to be the third most ever at around 3,350. From what I can tell from BRef, that total would be the fifth most, behind 1987, 1999, 1911, and 1912, and also behind 1914 & 1915 if you include the Federal League teams as major league, as BRef does. Steals per game, however, were equal to or higher than 2023’s 0.71 every year from 1976-1997 and every year before 1922 (it looks like the 1920-21 averages include Negro League games and 1914-15 include Federal League games). Success rates were much lower in both of those time periods than they are now, though.
Yup, I think the pickoff rule is the biggest factor.
Also, the game is just a helluva lot more watchable when guys like Acuna & Harris are let loose on the basepaths. As much as blatant baserunning mistakes can make me crazy, I’d still prefer to see these guys try to take the extra bases (within baseball reason) and, occasionally, draw the errant throw. This HR/K/BB, station-to-station game… I mean, it was getting really tough to watch.
Speaking of which… On Donaldson, here’s the money quote that I’ll surely relay to my Yankee buddies:
“The Yankees will have paid Donaldson a total of $56 million for a slash line of .207/.293/.385 with 25 home runs in 666 plate appearances. The Yankees would have been better off if they had just designated Sánchez for assignment and kept Gio Urshela, who they also traded in the deal. Instead, Donaldson’s salary hampered the Yankees’ financial flexibility and allowed Minnesota to sign Carlos Correa with their newfound room. There’s no other way to describe this deal for the Yankees other than a failure of epic proportions.” — Kirschner
No team overpays for their mistakes like the team in The Bronx. Just tells you how flush that bunch really is.
FWIW, I always liked Urshela. He could play all 4 IF positions well & had some pop. Even though he was another RH hitter on a team that still has too many of them, he was the perfect guy to fill in wherever the Yanks needed him. Donaldson just gummed up the works.
Urshela was in a long line of guys who came from nowhere and were terrific – Luke Voit, certainly, but Mike Tauchman to a lesser extent, too. Jordan Montgomery was way better than anyone expected.
But they have completely screwed up in figuring out who to keep and who to get rid of. Beyond the terrible contracts they’ve given out or absorbed – Stanton, Hicks, Donaldson, Rodon – the trouble with the Yankees the last few years is that they’ve traded away a lot of the guys who have done unexpectedly well for them, but the performance of the guys they kept simply cratered: Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino, of course; Miguel Andujar, even more so. Deivi Garcia, most of all. Gleyber Torres has finally returned to effectiveness, after completely falling apart.
It’s astonishing how teams that have spent as much money as the Mets and Yankees can have as little depth as they have. It’s entirely the result of bad decisionmaking.
The Angels just threw a bunch of meat to the wolves. Should the Braves jump into the fray and try to absorb any? Giolito, Moore, Lopez, Renfroe, Grichuk? Moore might be better than Hand and Giolito couldn’t be worse than any of our other #5s. Just have to be willing to pay the price.
I wasn’t crazy about the Montgomery-for-Bader deal. Although Bader did have a terrific post-season in ’22, the Yanks haven’t been able to keep him on the field much this year. (Bader’s kinda funny to watch in-person, though; he preens a bit like A-Rod.)
But yeah, there was a time not that long ago when Cashman looked smart for acquiring some of these guys, who performed well out of the gate. But… he’s not a very popular man in YankeeLand these days.
And the club just upped its season-ticket prices another 10%. We’ll see if the fanbase turns — I tend to doubt it. The Yanks’ll make some kinda splash in the off-season.
FYI — Braves visit The Bronx June 21-23, 2024. I’ve made inquiries about Group Tickets, if anyone’s interested.
Pat Corrales, RIP
Hurston Waldrep promoted to AA already. I propose calling him either, “the Millionaire” or “Bacchus” once he gets to the show. Any chance he sees the bullpen this year?
Recap is up! Sorry for the delay.
Moore is the only one of the waivers guys who will likely get picked up as the contracts of the others are prohibitive reletive to their value. That said, Lucas Giolito would look good in a Braves uni. He would also be a playoff starter in Philly, Texas and Milwaukee so maybe somebody claims him?
And… I forgot to turn on comments till now. Comments are open on the recap. Sorry about that!
Do the Braves add anyone to the 40-man roster today? If so, who and who is the casualty?
I suppose this is the “eligible for postseason without having to be for an injury” move, right?
Yep
I would assume they wouldn’t. The guys recently released all suck.
Jesus Aguillar would be the one to watch I imagine as the other contenders (Soroka, Wall, etc) are already playoff qualified. We might just want some thump on the bench come October
So do my eyes deceive me or is the “worst” money AA has spent:
1) $16.25M to a DH with a 2.1 fWAR, 31 HRs, and a 131 wRC+.
2) $9M to a LF with 1.4 fWAR, 20 HRs, and a 114 wRC+
3) $5M to a RP with 0.3 fWAR, 3.88 ERA, and 55 IP in 40 appearances.
That’s it. That’s the “bad” money. Am I missing somebody? This has to be some of the best use of resources we’ve seen since, what, the late 90’s Yankees? This is really incredible.
He may as well have set the 2.55M for Adrianza and Luetge on fire but that is picking nits
That’s a good point, snowshine. That was some bad money.
Cole Hammels?
OK, so who comes up tomorrow? I think Lee and Tromp will come back. If not Lee, then Kolarek and Tromp.
I guess we have the answer. Lee and Wall. To me that means no DH for either TdA or Murphy.
Soroka to be called up and will start tonight – Heller sent back down. Hopefully this is the last trip back and forth for Soroka and he establishes himself for some kind of post-season role.
Seems like Soroka is consistently at the top of the zone with his fastball, and I’m not sure it’s intentional. Anybody more knowledgeable than me got any insight on that? Is he just throwing a four-seam now? When I think Soroka I think sinker down in the zone.