Projections can be a funny thing. I find it absolutely fascinating that someone or something can look at a data set and spit out numbers that can change the way I think and feel about a certain player. ZiPS projects Spencer Strider to rack up 168 K’s next season. Why so few? I can’t shed any light on that. However I would like to walk you through some projections for a couple of Braves that had down years due to injury in 2022. What can we expect for them this season and how does that impact the team that we watch night in and night out. Come along, let’s chat about Ozzie Albies and Eddie Rosario.
Ozzie Albies is the longest tenured Brave on the roster coming into the 2023 season. Yes, you read that correctly. Since his debut on August 1st of 2017, Albies has accumulated 15.2 Fangraphs WAR, two Silver Sluggers, two All-Star appearances, oh and a World Series Ring. Not bad for a $350,000 international free agent signing. Ozzie is clearly a favorite amongst fans and teammates. While Grissom and Arcia held down second base in his absence last year, having a full season of a healthy Albies could provide a tremendous boost to the club. So what does a bounce back season for Ozzie look like?
Fangraphs ZiPS projects Albies to finish the year something like this: .270/.321/.471 while serving up 22 homers, driving in 81 runs and swiping 11 bags. This would be his highest recorded batting average and OBP since the shortened 2020 season. His slugging is projected to be almost exactly what he as put up over his seven seasons in the majors. In fact the entire projected slash-line is nearly identical to is career production. How should we look at this? I look at it as, people who are a lot smarter than me, think that we will get 133 games of prime Ozzie Albies. I’ll take that eight days a week. The number that really stand out to me is his projected WRC+ (117). This would be his career high in this metric. You can brush up on that formula here!
I’m generally an optimist and these ZiPS projections make me feel like we’re going to get an above average season from our beloved second baseman from Curacao. After a foot surgery and an off season shoulder surgery, Ozzie had a nice spring training and seems to be having a good start to the season. Hell, he’s slashing .400/.400/.400 in 2023. Can he keep up this pace? That’s debatable, but he’s swinging a good bat from the left side and nothing gets me much more excited than that. I think a lot of fans may have forgotten what all Ozzie brings to this team on and off the dirt. He’s a very special player and I’ve got my tickets to the comeback tour.
Eddie Rosario. You may know him as the father of Dodgers left hander Julio Urias. At least that’s the version of Eddie that I like to harken back to. That NLCS was a masterful performance. The greatest week of baseball ever played if you ask my friend John after a few gold tops. .560/.607/1.040 in case you might have forgotten. I haven’t. I’m sure Eddie would like to forget his 2022 season in Atlanta though. It was a dreadful campaign. We all know that he couldn’t see the ball due to a hole in his retina, but a 64 OPS+ makes me wish I would have seen less of it myself.
But that’s not who Eddie Rosario is. So, who is he? Career 105 OPS+ and 102 WRC+. Right around league average. But Eddie is valuable. Why? Call me old fashioned but Eddie passes the eye test, no pun intended. He puts the ball in play from the left side and flashes power. I love that in this line up. I remember looking at his spray chart after we acquired him in 2021 and it was beautiful. Singles and doubles all over the field and that’s why I like Rosario. Fangraphs has his walk rate decreasing, K rate increasing from average, in fact it shows almost no hopes of positive regression what so ever. Why is the optimism warranted? Frankly, because we’ve been witness to what he can do. Before 2022, Rosario had never hit below. 255 in his career. He’s never struck out 120 times in a season. I don’t expect him to turn into 2006 Carlos Lee again but if he can post a 2/3/4 slash-line and league average + stats, this team can live with Eddie at the bottom of this line up. Thrive, even. Do I think we resign Rosario? Probably not. He does have a club option so if he plays well, AA will likely pick it up. He can lengthen and turn over a line up as well as anyone in baseball and that’s all we need him to do. ZiPS has him posting -0.1 WAR this year. I will go on record and say if Eddie Rosario posts a negative WAR in 2023, I will eat my hat. I could probably use a new one anyway.
There are a lot of story lines to be excited about this upcoming season and these are two of my favorites. If these two guys can get back to anything resembling normal, we may never lose again, until we play the Athletics of course, because baseball is weird.
In case you’re curious, links to this information and more can be found here:
Ready to chat? Join the Bar by clicking on the image!
Recent Comments