Scene: Anthopoulos sits at the head of a table that seats 12. 11 of his constituents eagerly await the plan to address the nightmare that was the 2022 Braves left field position.
AA: “Alright crew. What happens when you throw velcroed balls at a wall that has also been covered with velcro?”
Advanced Analytics Guy: “That depends on the exit velocity from the thrower’s arm”.
Non-Analytics Guy: “And it depends on if you applied the male part of the velcro to the ball and the female part of the velcro to the wall, because if you threw it at a wall and both the ball and the wall had been covered with the male…”
Brian Snitker: “Can you both just shut the hell up? You know what he means.”
AA: “When you throw a ball that has been covered with the male part of the velcro..Aw never mind. We are going to sign a bunch of players for very little to play left field in spring training in hopes that they stick. We are also going to send Marcell Ozuna on the bus for every road spring training game in hopes that he quits or gets desperate enough to do something stupid again. Thoughts? Never mind. I don’t need your thoughts. I’m the GM.”
The Battle for Left Field
When Eddie Rosario nearly went blind, Marcell Ozuna did something stupid again, and Adam Duvall got hurt, the Braves traded for Robbie Grossman and tried a soft platoon of Gross Eddie and it went poorly. While Rosario has looked better this spring, his numbers are still not promising and left field for the Braves has been projected to be 1 slot above the bottom. That’s the opposite of good. If the team was truly out of “Opening Day” money and did the best they could to give the position a fighting chance, I get it. If not, this is a big risk for a team capable of winning it all.
In today’s piece, we will lay out all of the candidates that are fighting for a spot and, like our last piece, will try to determine who has the leg up in the battle. While I’d hoped for an Ozuna trade or DFA, it’s yet to happen and both he and Rosario are not in this discussion because Brian Snitker said they’d both be on the roster.
The Outfield Candidates
JOrdan Luplow
Still out with a sore oblique, Luplow will have to get in a game before the end of next week if he’s to be considered for the roster. With a MILB option, I think it’s more likely that he gets the Adam Duvall of 2019 treatment and hangs out at Gwinnett until something breaks in LF or he breaks through.
Eli white
White is having one heck of a camp thus far, and while he’s never been known for his power, he’s hit 1 HR and has had a lot of loud contact. With elite speed and defense, he could get some time in the bigs, but 2 MILB options might deter him from getting an OD look. That is…unless he just forces his way on the roster by smashing in spring.
Sam hilliard
Like White, Hilliard has also impressed in spring with loud contact and a .938 OPS in 16 PA. And word on the streets is that Kevin Seitzer has worked with Sam to deter him from wrapping his hands and it’s made a difference. Gosh, I hope so. Of the candidates here, he’s the one with the most potential. Look for Sam to continue getting regular PAs, because he’s shown he deserves them AND because he’s completely out of options.
Kevin pillar
It would be of no surprise to anyone that Pillar has the best stats of all the OF candidates, because of course he does. He’s a veteran player that was probably well prepared to beat up on young pitchers. In all seriousness, he’s looked good and it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if Pillar’s contract was selected.
magneuris sierra
Sierra was supposed to be a DUDE, but somewhere along the way he lost the “e”. His one true gift is his legs, but even so, it’s never made him an elite base thief or fielder. He is carrying a .749 OPS in spring, but it only comes with 1 XBH of the 2-bagger variety. Of this list, I expect him to be sent to MiLB camp first and likely by the end of next week.
In Where I Make Predictions that I Probably Shouldn’t
I think it’s possible that the Braves break camp with 2 of the above listed guys in hopes they catch lightning in a bottle with at least 1.
Jordan Luplow: 20%. This next week will be the tell-tale sign, and if Luplow returns soon, hits, and can stay healthy, next week’s predictions could look very different.
Eli White: 20%. For now, I choose to believe that Eli, who’s never been much of a hitter, has been a case of ST fastball feasting and not a remade career as a slugger.
Sam Hilliard: 80%. Combine the ideas that Hilliard is LH, hitting the ball well, is out of options, and has a history of hard contact, I think he’s one of the 2 that breaks camp in the bigs.
Kevin Pillar: 80%. I’m guessing Pillar will be coveted by Snitker as a veteran and clubhouse leader and I cannot blame him. With LF being the dumpster fire that it is, one can squint and see at least average production from a Pillar/Eddie Rosario platoon.
Magneuris Sierra: 0%. Jordan Peele titled a movie “Nope”, and while it doesn’t star Sierra, it tells the same tale.
I literally just realized that’s a photo of Kevin Pillar, not of Nick Markakis.
Ryan, you are so much more confident in Sam Hilliard than I am that I can’t help hoping that you’re right!
It’s probably too soon for me to point out that Forrest Wall has played a fair amount of left field (OK 3 games, but over 50 games in CF), and he’s OPSing .879.
The article from the Athletic on Strider that got posted last thread, on his being a two-pitch starter, is fantastic. There’s a lot of quotes from Strider in it, and he’s so thoughtful and purposeful. He describes designing his fastball and slider mechanics on his comeback from Tommy John in a way that makes me a fan.
@2 He’s never had a cup of coffee and he’s not on the 40-man so he’s definitely going to AAA but could be called up at a later date. He does not have a great track record regardless of his Spring, so I’m sure the Braves will want to see something at AAA before calling him up. If he does get called, he’ll still have three options so he’s not likely to stick unless he does a Michael Harris imitation.
Of course, I also think Kevin Pillar is a likely Heredia imitator…..
I think I agree with Ryan on this one – Hilliard and Pillar. But if Luplow does a Duvall imitation at Gwinnett. Pillar might go away quickly.
On the other hand Dylan Dodd did himself no favors today…. woof…..
@3–yes, the Athletic article on Strider is fascinating. I’ve been a Soroka since his first year in the system in large part because of his intelligence in his approach to pitching. Strider’s explanation of his mechanics and approach puts him in that same ballpark.
Having said that, in the long run he’ll be better off with a reliable third pitch. But he’s right that he’s better off sticking to the heater and slider than throwing an unreliable change.
My belated response to JonathanF’s post yesterday:
I comment here a lot more during the season than offseason. That’s partly because of my work. I’m blessed to have a job on the academic calendar; I’ve got more time in the summer than the rest of the year (the opposite of bravesword in that regard).
I’m like coop in that my fandom has narrowed greatly as I age. I pretty much care only about the Braves, but I follow them more intensely than ever. I read everything I can, I watch every game, and I attend a lot of them.
https://youtu.be/Zv9E_bxb-PA
Matzek is one of my favorite players.
Especially interesting him talking to Ian Anderson towards 8:30 min.
Fifth starter is Bryce Elder’s to lose at this point.
@8 Idunno – I think Ian is looking a lot better recently.
Went to the game today. Ian looked good. Commanded the strike zone for the most part. He looks improved.
Ian > Lee > Anderson was a welcomed sight. Nick Anderson looks healthy and ready to go.
Harris definitely looks as big as people said he got. Was good to finally see Vaughn Grissom in person. Just weird seeing a SS/2B combo that tall with him and Shewmake today.
Air conditioned baseball at The Trop. Don’t ask me to hate it.
Interesting. I didn’t get a chance to watch, but all the social media commentary I saw was sh*tting on Ian, hence my conclusion.
I watched a good bit. I thought he looked rough and he topped out at 92.
Is Harris getting bigger a good thing?
I could be wrong, I often am, but I have a feeling Morton is going to have a solid 3rd/4th starter type of a year. Not as good as 2021 but something like 3 WAR.
Our vaunted bullpen has been pretty awful all the way up and down the line all Spring. I hope it’s better when the season begins.
@13
If it’s his lower half (which it is), that’s a big hell yeah.
So if the corpse of Adam Wainright is the type of pitcher team USA is rolling out there I don’t think a repeat of the WBC title is going to happen.
@15–here’s how to look at spring training stats (at least, here’s how I do):
Iglesias, Minter, Luetge, and Jimenez all had rough outings, but it’s early, the games don’t count, and they are working on different stuff.
On the other hand, the fact that Olson and Acuna are crushing the ball and that Ozzie just smashed a long homer convinces me that they are ready for strong comeback seasons.
While I like the optimistic mindset of “if a guy is struggling in ST it’s because he’s working on something and will be fine in time for the season, while if he’s performing in ST it means he’s locked in and will have a monster season,” I’m not sure how accurate it is.
Jimenez, in particular, is showing reduced velocity, and he’s not exactly a guy with tons of margin for error. Minter needs to speed up his delivery in order to comply with the clock, so he needs to find a way to do that while maintaining his effectiveness. The others, eh, it’s spring. Spring stats are sheep entrails and the throwing of bones.
Hey, I never claimed my view of ST performance is accurate!
I just don’t like that there seems to not be a single effective late inning pitcher. Count or not, the Braves have leaped out to big leads and lost a whole lot of them. Not to mention giving up 16 runs yesterday. That’s not “working on something” – ever.
As much as the new rules are good for our hitters, I hope they’re not a disaster for our pitchers.
@21 – I can’t say that I agree with you on being concerned about our relievers based on spring training results. 12 of the 16 runs yesterday were allowed by pitchers who won’t sniff the OD roster. Many of the other late inning runs have been given up by players who are not even on the roster now.
I will agree, as someone pointed out earlier, that some of the runs given up by AA/ AAA players may be indicative of the lack of depth in our minor league system. But other than that, I just have to repeat spring training is meaningless. The only thing that has any real meaning is injury status.
I see the “Spring training is meaningless, BUT…” folks are out in full force. You guys just can’t help yourselves. Outside of injury, spring training is meaningless…full stop. It’s honestly not even worth watching except in the vaguest possible “It’s a baseball game and I haven’t seen one of those in several months, leave me alone” sort of way. Even for the fifth starter position, it’s true they’ll be basing that decision on something that’s happening in spring training, but it won’t be the actual box score results of their outings.
@23 Thank you.
Some people can’t be happy unless they can find some reason to gnash their teeth.
The start of ST is an exciting time of year, but once it starts, I kind of tune it out. Just isn’t very exciting from afar. I’m ready for March 31.
@23
https://twitter.com/DOBrienATL/status/1635334695876436070?s=20
Perhaps not everything is meaningless, señor.
I saw a graphic that if the percentage increase of stolen bases in the minor leagues from 2021 to 2022 occurred in the major leagues this year, we’d have 1970’s level stolen base totals. So, uhh, yes, friends, if Eli White is doing well in Spring Training games, you bet your balls they want that speed on the roster and will look at his ST performance.
When I was at the game the other day, I was watching how well Ian was hitting where the catcher setup. There are definitely things I’m watching in ST, albeit not the statlines and boxscores.
I agree that ST is meaningless…for the most part. However, for guys like Eli White, Dylan Dodd, Sam Hilliard, Vaughn Grissom, and Braden Shewmake, it’s anything but. It’s a difference of getting paid next to nothing to getting $750K. Those guys are treating every AB like it’s the World Series.
I don’t think anyone is implying that ST is meaningless because guys aren’t trying. (Maybe veterans who have safe roster spots and just want to get their work in.) It’s more that ST is meaningless because it’s not very predictive of success during the games that count. White or Dodd or Hilliard can play out of their minds in ST, but that doesn’t make them useful major leaguers, or even make it more likely.
Adam Duvall murdered the crap out of the ball in ST last year. When the season started, though, he was who he had always been. The combination of weak competition and small sample sizes make it pretty much impossible to distinguish a real improvement from random noise.
New thread
https://bravesjournal.mystagingwebsite.com/2023/03/13/braves-spring-training-updates-braden-shewmake-eli-white-and-jordan-luplow/