We’re going to WAR, so B or F Off, and Cubs @Braves Game Thread

Our team is back where they belong, tied for first place in the NL East. It hasn’t been pretty, but the offense and starting pitching seem to be rounding into form. The bullpen still needs some tinkering, but we’ve already received news that Sean Newcomb will be back on Friday and Chris Martin is not far behind. While not bullpen related, Mike Soroka has also been cleared to throw and will essentially restart his Spring Training. He’s expected to be out until mid-June. We should all be celebrating, as no structural shoulder damage is is remarkable news for his career.

So, the team has battled back to .500 and is looking like the team we were promised they’d be when the season began. Let’s take a look at some early season WAR rankings.

Braves fWAR and bWAR Rankings: Offense

Ronald Acuna Jr.: 1.8 fWAR/1.6 bWAR
Freddie Freeman: 0.8 fWAR/0.7 bWAR
Marcell Ozuna: -0.4 fWAR/-0.2 bWAR
Ozzie Albies: 0.3 fWAR/0.2 bWAR
Travis d’Arnaud: -0.2 fWAR/-0.2 fWAR
Dansby Swanson: 0.1 fWAR/-0.1 bWAR
Austin Riley: 0.6 fWAR/0.9 bWAR
Guillermo Heredia: 0.8 fWAR/0.7 bWAR
Pablo Sandoval: 0.4 fWAR/0.3 bWAR
Ehire Adrianza: 0.2 fWAR/0.1 bWAR
Ender Inciarte: 0.0 fWAR/0.0 bWAR
Alex Jackson: -0.2 fWAR/-0.2 bWAR

Breakdown: Acuna Jr. is leading the NL in fWAR and is likely the leading MVP candidate. His combination of above average defense with elite baserunning and hitting will keep him in this conversation all year, if he can stay healthy. Freddie Freeman is still having remarkably poor luck with a BABIP of .219, yet is still carrying a .919 OPS. Freddie isn’t alone in the bad luck department as Ozzie Albies (.206 BABIP), Travis d’Arnaud (.235 BABIP), Marcell Ozuna (.247 BABIP), Ehire Adrianza (.222 BABIP), Alex Jackson (.111 BABIP) have also been hit unlucky. Imagine being in first place with 3 key members of the offensive cog being the victim of rotten luck.

Braves fWAR and bWAR Rankings: Pitching

Ian Anderson: 0.4 fWAR vs. 1.2 bWAR
Huascar Ynoa: 0.5 fWAR vs. 0.8 bWAR
Luke Jackson: 0.0 fWAR vs. 0.4 bWAR
Charlie Morton: 0.6 fWAR vs. 0.3 bWAR
Nate Jones: -0.3 fWAR vs. 0.3 bWAR
Will Smith: 0.3 fWAR vs. 0.2 bWAR
Sean Newcomb: 0.1 fWAR vs. 0.1 bWAR
A.J. Minter: 0.3 fWAR vs. 0.1 bWAR
Tyler Matzek: 0.1 fWAR vs. 0.0 bWAR
Josh Tomlin: 0.3 fWAR vs. 0.0 bWAR
Jacob Webb: 0.0 fWAR vs. -0.1 bWAR
Bryse Wilson:-0.3 fWAR vs. -0.1 bWAR
Jesse Biddle: -0.1 fWAR vs. -0.1 bWAR
Grant Dayton: 0.0 fWAR vs. -0.1 bWAR
Drew Smyly: -0.3 fWAR vs. -0.5 bWAR
Max Fried: -0.1 fWAR vs. -0.7 bWAR
Kyle Wright: -0.1 fWAR vs. -0.1 bWAR

Breakdown: Alright, B. Alright, F. I’ve got a problem with both of you people. First, B…how is is that you rate Will Smith, who’s carrying a 13.5 K/9 with a 6.3 BB/9 at 0.2 WAR, yet have both Luke Jackson and Nate Jones with 0.3 WAR? Luke carries a 1.615 WHIP and walks 7.3/9, while Nate walks 6.5/9. Not to mention that Ian has pitched 3 times as many innings. And now for you, fWAR. Ian Anderson at 0.5? ARE YOU HIGH? You’ve got A.J. Minter, who has 38% of the innings and an ERA a full run higher than Ian at 0.3.

Braves Lineup

It’s the day to put it away. Let’s get above .500 and never look back.

.@BryseWilson takes the mound tonight vs. the Cubs!

Presented by @TruistNews | #ForTheA pic.twitter.com/kwDL5EcLB9
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) April 29, 2021

13 Comments

ububba on April 29, 2021 at 5:35 pm

From last thread…

If Austin Riley even had one post-season like Troy Glaus had wearing an Angels uni…

Td on April 29, 2021 at 5:45 pm

From last thread
So Iâ€™m beginning to think that the new Money ball is finding non distinct players that the Mets gave up on. Heredia and dâ€™Arnaud are great examples for the Braves. Steven Matz may be coming back down to earth in Toronto after his last start but he was lights out in his 1st 4 games after posting an era of almost 10 last year with the Mets

Roger on April 29, 2021 at 6:07 pm

@33 from prior thread. Everyone should take a look at the Braves fielding stats on FG. Heredia stands out. From my eye test, he is doing a great job in the field and the stats seem to bear that out. Can’t say if it will last but he’s not just performing at the plate. Right now, Heredia seems to be what we hope Pache will become.

I have no idea why but Freddie’s fielding stats are trailing the bunch. Behind even the expected performance of Marcel.

Roger on April 29, 2021 at 6:09 pm

Win tonight and April will be no worse than .500.

Rob Copenhaver on April 29, 2021 at 6:15 pm

I don’t think Austin Riley needs to get even to a Troy Glaus comp to be a success as a prospect. Glaus had 8.2, 5.3, and 4.7 fWAR seasons. He had six seasons over 3 fWAR. With that said, 1/6 of the way through the season, Riley is on a 3.6 fWAR pace, so who knows. But I think asking any prospect to have a career that accumulates 34 fWAR the way Glaus did is unfair. What percentage of even first round picks like Riley accumulate 34 fWAR? Feel like that’s a question for JonathanF.