This was a solidly won game against a future playoff team. What’s not to love? The Nationals, suffering from injuries, threw their best lineup against our best lefty. And their starting pitcher, Tanner Roark, pitched well enough to keep the Nationals in the game. But we out-pitched them, out-hit them, and played good defense.
Sean Newcomb delivered one of his best games: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 S. He threw 93 pitches, and he might have come back out for the 8th if he wasn’t due up in the bottom of the 7th. He finishes the month of May 5-1 with a 1.54 ERA in 35 IP. We may look back on the month of May as the time he turned the corner.
Dan Winkler and Arodys Vizcaino did their jobs by pitching scoreless innings each. Winkler had 2 K’s, and Vizzy struck out the side. And more importantly, this keeps the pen sort of rested for the rest of the series.
Newcomb has joined Folty to form what has turned into a strong 1-2, lefty-righty duo. Both of them are striking out over 10 per 9, and while they need to improve their walk rates (both over 4 per 9), they have been stingy on hits, both limiting hits to around 7 per 9. FIP likes them too; Newcomb is 13th in MLB with Folty 26th.
Maybe we’re not bad.
Nice tidy little win. In your face, Nats!
Newk is awesome.
The hit rates for both guys are currently really shiny and low, but pitchers don’t typically keep their hit rates this low. The biggest thing I’ve seen from both Folty and Newcomb is that both appear a lot more open to taking a few miles off their fastball than they used to, and their command has gone up and their hittability has gone down. That’s what makes me think that some of this is for real.
But they both throw the ball real hard, and their homer rates are way below their career averages, and when that floats back upward their ERAs are probably going to climb by about a run. I think they’ll both have the best years of their respective careers in 2018, but there’s a shoe that’s going to drop.
I want to believe. I want to imagine Newcomb and Folty as co-aces. At this point, I agree, what’s not to love??
We are one-third into the season already. I am definitely believing.
This front office regime is much more advanced than the previous couple. They seems to have a much better idea on how to handle prospects, and the philosophical alignment between them and Snit/coaches seem to be much more in sync. This is something we have not seen since the JS/BC days. Personally, I think Snit is doing a great job despite his obvious deficiency in some areas but, hell, Bobby was far from perfect.
Not allowing JS and JH picking their buddies was definitely the right thing to do. I am so happy with the direction the team is heading.
…and AA rules. In AA I trust. I like how he doesn’t rush prospects, which is the exact opposite of what the past three regimes did including JS. I honestly think Andruw/Frenchy/Heyward and a whole bunch of pitching prospects would be much better if they had more minor league seasoning.
I also think they are deliberately limiting the innings of Gohara this year. I have read articles that AA doesn’t like the high total inning jump of Gohara from 2016 to 2017.
@5 and @6 I think you hit the nail on the head. The apparent alignment from the front office to the field has made a big difference. And being that we are more than 1/3 into the season, I think we are what we are and that we will stick in this for the long haul. I trust AA to make the best decisions balancing the present and the future
Made an error in calculating Newk’s performance in May. It’s been corrected.
Is this the first year for Hernandez as pitching coach?
No, this is his second year, but probably his first year with a staff talented enough to make a dent with. I’d also say that holds true for Seitzer and the lineup he gets to work with this year.
Harper being offered at auction midnight last night…
Do I hear $400 MM?
No you don’t.
More like 238 then?
raises hand.
As a followup to my post yesterday concerning Austin Riley’s readiness -or not- for the major leagues… he struck out 4 times yesterday and has K’ed 9 times in the last 3 games (and 40 in his last 20 games, if you prefer a longer time line). My point is, that’s too many strikeouts.
Please note that I am *not* casting doubt on Riley’s future promise on the basis of his less-than-1-month-tenure at AAA, but I am definitely saying that his performance for the Gwinnett Strip(p)ers to date reflects a need for him to get additional work on his game in the minors.
Intelligible post of the year.
TC 8.33 this morning…ITG
Some guy had just written in, apologetically,asking if he still felt the same way about his pre-season treatise on Newcombe’s whiff rates.
Apologetically because he knew what was coming. It came 23 minutes later and was worthy of a Doctorate. Wish i could understand it but there’ll maybe a couple here who can.
AA. Go get this guy. He has some other measly job in Boston for pete’s sake. He is Russian which gives the whole thing a gloriously exotic flavor. Some are already saying he made a cameo appearance on The Americans finale Wednesday night.
Me, I’m just happy the North Koreans never got him when the Wall came down.
Alex, it’s pretty early on for Newk to be talking about career averages and career years, no? Not even a year since he was called up. Also, if you look at his minor league numbers, he’s been pretty stingy with HRs since A ball.
In 2017, the lowest HR/9 was 0.67 (Stephen Strasburg) and the lowest HR/FB was 8.6% (Andrew Cashner). Newcomb today is at 0.43 and 5.5%. Those numbers are not sustainable.
It should be noted that Homer Bailey has the highest qualifying HR/9. Excellent.
Newcomb is 4th in MLB in HR/9. Folty is 21st. They are 82nd and 84th, respectively, out of 91 qualifiers in BB rate. Might we see an improvement in BB rate to offset a probable increase in HR rate?
Their HR/9 may rise some, but it’s equally important to note that Newcomb’s is a short sample size (only pitched 100 IP last year). Exactly how much should we expect it to rise?
In general, assume his home run rate will rise to league average until he establishes that he has a special skill to keep it lower. We know that Newcomb’s control has always been his nuclear A-1 concern, and so we can’t assume that it will decrease.
Newk’s periphs have all been pretty different than last year. His K’s are down a little, but his H, BB, and HRs are all down. I agree that we should see an decrease in his overall performance because he’s probably not talented or polished enough to keep his HRs down that far, but I wouldn’t necessarily be using last year’s numbers to form an opinion.
Folty is very different. K’s are up a full 2 per 9, H and HR are down, but walks are up a full walk per 9. He’s more wild, but much less hittable.
Newk was actually one of the better starters in the league as far as HR/9 last year.
Even so, his HR/9 was literally twice as high last year as it is this year.
He barely gives up any hits, let alone HRs. He’s been truly great in 2018 so far.
I’m surprised more fans don’t moan and groan about Brandon McCarthy. His FIP (4.36) is much better than his ERA, but we’re a 1/3 of the way through the season, and he’s on pace to be barely above replacement level.
There weren’t really high expectations for the guys that we got in the Kemp salary dump. I didn’t think he make this many starts. I think he’s been a pleasant surprise.
We just like AMANDA.
My expectations were that he’d be an effective starter but would inevitably miss time to injury. I suppose value is value, so if he stays healthy, he can just be mediocre. But considering he’s still bound to miss time, he needs to miss bats before he does.
McCarthy has had a couple of really bad starts that ballooned his ERA, but his FIP is passable for a BOR type. He isn’t really expected to be more than that. He’s basically the #4 he was expected to be.
Even if Sean Newcomb’s ERA regresses closer to his xFIP of 3.93 (his FIP is an excellent 3.14 but that doesn’t take into account his HR/FB ratio) it would still have to be considered a successful year with his walk rate improvements. He leads the staff in fWAR, which is based primarily on FIP and xFIP.
Both Newk and Folty could be league average/BOR-types for the rest of the year and still end up with 3+ WAR seasons. That’s how good they’ve been this deep into the season.
At the 1/3 point of the season, I think it’s safe to say you’re at least past the SSS point of the season. Flaherty has a 104 OPS+. Ozzie is almost out of the top 10 in MLB HRs. Acuna has a .779 OPS. Carle has a 2.10 ERA, not the nice 0.69 ERA he had. A lot of guys have come back to earth, and I’d say only one guy is flukey on the downside (Ender’s 88 OPS+, but that’s not far off). Maybe Minter, but he’s still a rookie, so is it fair to say he’s under-performing?
I was expecting league average from McCarthy and I’m still holding out hope that he’ll rise to that level. If he puts together a few more bad starts in a row my patience will run out. I don’t think my thought process is much different than the front office at least on this subject.
@29 – Given the time he missed and some improving peripherals, I think Camargo is still firmly in the SSS camp.
Flaherty didn’t hit much in May and his playing time diminished accordingly.
NICK!! That was a 4-star catch.
We need to work Strasburg more…making it too easy for him to go deep in the game
Yikes. Hard to beat Strasburg if they give him Glavine’s strike zone.
Wow, who is this Mike Foltynewicz guy?
Dansby’s consistent.
Chip just said that Folty has retired 17 in a row, so I expect that to be jinxed.
He is thisclose to having a perfect game right now.
This is the best Folty we’ve seen since the near no-no against Oaktown, right?
Make that 20 in a row.
Best Folty start ever. The kid’s chunking.
Perfect hit and run.
Big City!
There is no doubt about it. Foltynewicz has put it together this year. The kid’s a ballplayer.
Dansby sucks.
Dansby always hits better with men on – especially in critical situations.
Chief was right.
Folty has the funniest swing ever.
Swanson being Swan song for Strasburg.
Dans. By.
Oh Chip…
I love it. Give up a 3-run HR and all of a sudden….. OW, I hurt something…. ooh, I have a cramp.
Oh Chip, indeed. They had some fun with it.
Do other teams’ announcers do that stuff too? Genuinely wondering. I only listen to other teams’ feeds about 10% of the time.
I saw CB Bucknor call a guy out on strike 2.
That *might* be a fractured ulna. I’m afraid you forfeit.
Joe is basically calling Strasburg a P—.
Braves keep scoring 4+ runs no matter how big a pitching duel it is.
Strasburg does have a laundry list of these type of situations, but to be fair, I think this is the first time we’ve seen it in awhile.
@53 – I was just thinking positive thoughts about him too as the way he layered in Markakis scoring his 1000th run was masterful…and then that.
I watch the Royals on occasion and not really from their play-by-play guy. Rex Hudler is the color guy though and some of his comments make me question his recreational activities prior to game time…
http://articles.latimes.com/2003/sep/05/sports/sp-hudler5
I say let him go for the shutout. Anyone who disagrees is allergic to fun.
Mike Foltynewicz is good at this game of baseball.
@56 – In all honesty, I’ve always thought of him that way as well. Fully admit it’s probably not fair, but I don’t care
Yeah, the players will be pissed at Snitker if he doesn’t let him try.
I think it’s been close to 2 years since we’ve had a complete game shutout.
Soroka had a good rehab stint at Rome.
@63
I was looking, and the most recent one I can find so far is Teheran vs. the Mets on June 19, 2016. I think that’s it.
65 — That has been confirmed.
Foltzie.
One more out. Good for Folty.
3 straight fastballs, then finished him off off-speed. You go, Folty.
I endorse this nickname. Foltzie it is.
Touching 99 MPH in the 9th inning over 100 pitches is quite something.
Wow, what a game! Best pitching performance by a Brave this year by far. Also, almost certainly our two best back-to-back pitching performances this season came last night and tonight.
Highest Game Score since Maddux ‘01.
A two hit shutout is probably best start by a Brave in several years.
Edit: Wow, more like 17 years.
This team is for real
Pretty good for an 80 win team. Foltzie was great, and Dansby found his clutch. A win tomorrow would be icing on the cake.
I’ll take more 9 inning shutouts, please. Thanks.
Re: Strasburg. I would only want that guy on my team long enough to fleece another team out of some players who will actually play for me. He’s undeniably talented, but in his 9-year career he’s only started 30 games twice. The Nationals have made four playoff appearances; Strasburg has only pitched in two. He has won a single game in the postseason so far.
He’s earned $72m so far in his career and has almost double that laid out for him through 2024. Good for him.
@33 The catch
let’s not forget it…Turner on 3rd, no outs, top of the first.
We would have been playing catch up all evening.
Recapped.