At last – Back to a timezone where baseball happens at a reasonable hour… ignoring the 2nd game on Monday. Though to be perfectly honest, my Yale Bulldogs won the NCAA Lacrosse Championship on Monday and I’m not going to care much about baseball until my elation subsides a little bit.
Set the Wayback Machine, Sherman, for June 8th, 1966. For the first time in this nostalgia tour, the same teams are playing today as 50 years ago. Game 55 saw the 24-30 Atlanta Braves taking on the 17-27 IWOTMs. Whereas last week we saw the Braves in the midst of a 7 game losing streak, they were now in the middle of a 7 game winning streak, and beat the Mets by the same score as last night’s 2018 game: 7-6. The game was played in the Urinal Known As Shea. Hank Aaron had 2 homers, a double and 6 RBI and raised his OPS to a cool 1.023. The starting pitchers were Hank Fischer and Jack Fisher. Unfortunately, both ended their careers before the Marlins and Rays started up. Jack took the loss and Clay Carroll picked up a win in a 4 inning long relief stint.
Eddie Mathews led off. He only has 231 plate appearances as a leadoff batter in a career of just over 10,000 plate appearances. And if he was ever speedy, he certainly wasn’t by 1966. Never think that old time managers filled up lineup cards by rote. They had theories just as much as Joe Maddon or Tony LaRussa does. OK, not quite as much as they do.
The Mets fielded no HOFers that day, but Ken Boyer came pretty close to getting in: his B-REF comparables are almost a who’s who of near misses and posthumous re-evaluations: Fred Lynn, Ron Santo, Reggie Smith, Paul O’Neill, Robin Ventura, and a guy the Mets are still paying every year – Bobby Bonilla. Paying him right out of that Madoff account.
Back to the Present. I attended a game three weeks ago in Citi Field in which Teheran bested Syndegaard. In order to avoid a repeat, the Mets DL’ed Syndegaard to allow Teheran to face Jason Vargas instead. Thor wasn’t injured, just scared…
Julio pitched well against the Mets, as he always does, even at home. But the carcass of Jason Vargas outpitched him, though he was slightly mysteriously lifted after 65 pitches and two hits surrendered. At this point Tim Peterson made his MLB debut and gave up a run in two innings on a Camargo dinger that was the doppelganger of the game winner the night before.
Shane Carle, which is, by the way an anagram of anal cheers, gave up another run and the Braves were in the position of being 2 down in the bottom of the 8th. This is when the Braves traditionally start playing against the Mets. Against Jeurys Familia, (anagram of mafia jury lies) the Braves got two on but Neck hit into a really well-turned double play/dagger. Another run surrendered by Socolovich put our boys in a hole we’ve been used to lately: down 3 late.
So we face Robert Gsellman (Grab Troll Semen) and… fail.
We’ve fallen from first but are hanging in there. It’s a long season…. Longer than NCAA Lacrosse. Did I mention that the Bulldogs are Champs?
At least Santo finally got in the Hall of Fame, thank goodness.
Good point, AAR. Modified…
Riley with another HR (3RBI) and a 2-hit game.
@3…timo
Your middle of the night missives from far away bring cheer to us locals suffering after a silly loss. The breakfast table not so bare. Please continue, win/lose.
Austin Riley
of whom we once thought highly
we still do
but time this egg still fresh, if i were you.
Rhys Hopkins
broken jaw, what’s the optins?
LIKELY DL bound??
your empathy and common sense confound.
Philly bizarro
idiocy raro
foul a pitch off your jaw?
a day off? PR fiasco, sticks in the craw.
there was an old Trainer in Philly
who said this is bound to sound silly
your boner intacto
is not now exacto
we’ll wrap though you’ll sound a bit shrilly.
We should call Riley up and move Camargo to short
Be careful, Smitty. The Commodores will align against you.
@8 I’d like to see some evidence that Riley has solved AAA before calling him up. So far, he has 31 Ks in 22 games in AAA (compare to last season, where Riley had about one strikeout per game in A+/AA). He’s very young to be in the high minors (by typical baseball standards at least) and has shown an ability to adjust to new levels pretty quickly. Another month or two in the minors would give Riley more exposure to advanced pitching without putting the bill for that learning curve on the Braves’ MLB tab (so to speak).
Also – I would think the Braves would only call up Riley when they have an opening for him to play more or less full-time. At present, with Swanson and Camargo healthy, playing Riley would mean benching Swanson or Camargo much of the time. Swanson’s been mostly bad recently but I doubt the Braves are ready to relegate him to the bench.
I think the Braves would welcome a power reinforcement at 3B and have Camargo take over some of both SS and even 2B, but not necessarily just because Dansby has underperformed (since when is a 96 wRC+ and 3 WAR pace underperforming?). If you have the prorated equivalent of 700 PAs to provide to 3B, 2B, and SS for the remainder of the season, they could let Albies get around 600 PAs and let Camargo, Riley, and Swanson get around 400 PAs each. And that’s probably going to happen anyway since someone is bound to get hurt in the post-Joey/Flaherty era where they don’t necessarily have Camargo to slide in somewhere if he’s your full-time 3B.
The K-rate with Riley is definitely worrisome. But the season is still young, and he could fix that by July and set themselves up for a stretch run where we don’t have to acquire a 3B and they could easily spell a slump or injury because of Camargo’s versatility. We’re in a really good spot.
The big question today on calling up Riley is what is Camargo, really?
I am convinced that Camargo is a player whose offense will play higher at MLB level than his minor league career justified. This morning ESPN had him at 220 / 360 / 420. I did a rough recalculation assuming a .300 BAPIP and that bumped him 40 points across the board to 260 / 400 / 460. I realize that is a small sample size, but he has now outhit his projections steadily since his call up. His frame says the ISO should be real (that could cost him a step or 2 at SS). If the ISO is real, the walk rate gain won’t disappear. He may be more like a 280 / 360 / 460 guy. But still, if he is that, he is an above average offensive 3B and well above average offensive SS.
Although I do think Dansby will still be an o.k. player, in 3 weeks or so if he is still not hitting, then bringing up Riley for 3B and moving Camargo to SS might be a good move.
The thing about trading for a 3B this early is that if Riley ends up deserving a promotion, the deal can look bad before the first prospect ever has a chance to become Adam Wainwright. At the end of the day, we’re still trying to “see what we have”, or as Chief would say, “not trying to win”.
I’m bearish on Camargo, more so than Swanson. If he’s our everyday 3B for the rest of the year, then we’re not trying to win.
Addressing Chief’s “Get a starting pitcher.”
Chief’s pick: Blake Snell.
Issues:
1. He has this year and next at Major League minimum and then 3 arb years. Which means COST will be high.
2. Tampa Bay FO is player savvy. They won’t let him go unless they get at least a fair deal. This is no Dave Stewart organization.
3. The ONLY motivation Tampa Bay has to move Snell is if the bundle of things they get back exceed his value to them. They can cover his salary easily.
4. Specifically, to look at a trade to the Braves requires projection and assumption about how those 4.5 years play out. Snell’s career stats at Major League level so far make him about an average pitcher against righthanded hitters (750 OPS against) and a 1 – 2 against lefthanded hitters. (550 OPS). We have Gohara and Newcombe in house now who both look that good on proven Major League innings. We also have Fried with a chance to be that good and some Major League innings and Allard with a chance, but somewhat iffy unless either velocity spikes or he proves it at ML level. I have tried to find some scouting reports to see if Snell’s performance this year is exceeding projections or in line with them. Most of that is behind pay walls If it is exceeding projections and there is no reason to say why suddenly for one third of a season he has a sub 3 (barely) ERA, then I would treat him as a #3 for trade purposes. Tampa Bay has no reason to treat him as less than a #1.
So, chief, are you willing to give up a package equal to 4.5 cost controlled years of a #1 starter (60 million or more of excess value)? I am not.
So chief, if you think he is really a 3, then how does getting him really help the Braves who are top heavy in lots of high ceiling young pitching?
Chief, if you think Snell is really a 1, but Tampa Bay could end up accepting a package for a 3, then explain how that strange occurrence could happen?
I think that’s cliff’s way of saying, “try again”.
@11 Dansby “hit” to the tune of .217/.308/.348 in May. If he doesn’t pick it up at the plate the Braves will have to consider giving some SS starts to Johan Camargo, who has handily outproduced Cap’n Dan at the plate since Camargo hit the scene last season.
As to the “what is Camargo, really?” question – simple to answer on defense (plays multiple positions at a slightly above-average level, has a great throwing arm), harder to pin down on offense considering his underwhelming minor league track record plus the *very* different offensive profiles he’s shown at MLB level between 2017 and 2018.
Using sortable 2018 WAR (qualified players only meaning sufficient innings pace to qualify as ERA title winner at end of year and why would you want to add a starter that WASN’T on that pace except maybe Bumgarner) as the basis for possible pitchers (per ESPN’s listings) and eliminating teams considering themselves in contention, these are the best available down to 32 (some of them I have never heard of and would have to look up).
14.Matthew Berry, Tigers
15. Johnny Cueto, Giants (they want to contend, but really?)
18. Snell
21. Bartolo Colon, Rangers (does anybody want to go there?
27. Jakob Junis, Royals
32. Cole Hamels, Rangers
Any of those catch your fancy, Chief?
I could go for Hamels if the price was right. His stats now make him look more like a good 3, but he has a good postseason experience level and the changeup is still letting him get better results against righthanders than lefthanders. I will find out more about Junis and Berry and see if they fit.
It is not Berry, but Boyd. And he is a turnip. 3.00 ERA but 20 walks and 45 strikeouts in 60 innings and a 3 year career ERA of 5.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=prado-002mar
While this comparison has certainly been overused, if you look at Prado’s minor league numbers, career track, career numbers, and versatility, then Johan is pretty much on pace for a Martin Prado-type career.
And since Omar Infante was compared to Martin Prado, I would like to clarify that I think Johan ends up having a better career than Infante:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/infanom01.shtml
Wednesday recaps have been a tour de force all year. Thank you, JohnathanF, for “anal cheers” and let’s hope (I think??) that Carle doesn’t provoke too many more of those going forward.
Yunel Escobar is another comp.
I loved the anagrams.
I think it’s safe to say that the book is out on attacking LH hitting Albies. He’s not going to touch anything hard at the top of the strike zone. Interested in seeing how he adjusts, since he’s going to get more ABs lefty than righty.
Junis is a late bloomer (25 and 2nd ML season) with no reason to expect better performance than who we have and no postseason or pennant race experience. A lesser version of Snell, except Snell is lefthanded and the Braves are loaded with lefthanders.
krussell@25,
But aren’t the pitches at the top of the zone Albies is missing actually out of the zone? I think Ozzie’s fundamental problem is he needs to take all of his walks and then it will work.
Back to Chief’s starting pitchers.
Cot’s has Cueto owed 21 mill per year 19, 20, 21 and 6 mill on option for 22 (probably the minimum buyout, but I could not find the details).
Hamels is owed 23.5 this year and 6 mill on option for next year which I again take as a buyout.
Based on that, can Chief agree that Cueto doesn’t meet Chief’s standards?
I would sign up for Cole Hamels. We have three starters at the moment.
@27, I think you’re right but it’s hard to tell how umps will call it since he pretty much never takes that pitch.
I have no problems with his aggressive approach…but if there’s a pitch you literally cannot hit, then you have to learn to take it.
Kudos to Jonathan F. Wednesday recaps have been wonderful for many reasons, but I for one especially enjoy the look back at 1966. Since I was 11 that year and obsessed with baseball—and my hometown had a big league team!—I’ll always remember that season fondly (even if the team’s on the field performance was disappointing). I have a clear memory of every player you’ve mentioned so far. In fact, I could probably name more players from that season than last year. Memory is a big part of most baseball fans’ love of the game.
One more tip if the cap to Jonathan F: I do Thursday recaps, and this week I happen to be in London. Since he’s been posting from Europe, I figured how hard could it be—I’ll plan to do it from here. Now that I’m here, I’m throwing in the towel and getting Rob to do tonight’s recap for me. I’m going to bed soon and I’ll read about the game in the morning.
As to Camargo, I’ve become a believer that he will be a valuable major league hitter. I thought his good numbers last year were a BABIP fluke, and that his underwhelming minor league stats were a better predictor of what he will do.
But his tremendous jump in walk rate convinces me that he’s for real, and the kind of player who may continue to develop. In fact, I love Martin Prado, but he never walked enough to be a really good ML hitter. I don’t know if Johan will, but he’s got a chance.
But don’t give the SS job to Camargo yet!! Cap’n Dans still has the chance to be a well above average offensive shortstop. Leave Dansby alone!!
(At least for another month or two. If his next month is like this past month I may join Coop et al in the Swanson skepticism)
@29 I wouldn’t offer much for Hamels.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/05/braves-select-peter-bourjos-release-aaron-blair.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook
Bourjos up
Peterson down
Aaron Blair released. Interested to see how the rest of his career goes.
Strange move. What was the point of bringing Peterson up for such a short stint? Blair is never going to be anything, but theoretically could have brought something back in a trade, or been a throw in as part of a larger deal. Now he’s gone for nothing. Seems like this was mis-played a bit. But obviously no great loss.
FWIW, here’s Keith Law:
I wonder if Acuna’s injury is more than they originally thought.
Aaron Blair just had shoulder surgery a year after putting up a 5.00 ERA as a 25-year-old in Triple-A. There is no way, theoretic or otherwise, that he could have brought something back.
Keep trotting out Matt Wisler, Lucas Sims, and Max Fried the rest of this season and see where that gets you.
Nowhere.
People act like the Braves are loaded with SP prospects. They’re loaded with a bunch of unproven AAAA types that may never be anything. Soroka is good but even he is an unknown. Get a proven veteran in here that can pitch more than 4.5/5 innings and stabilize the staff.
If this team doesn’t trade for a SP and a proven bullpen arm and more than likely a 3B, its going nowhere in a year that it could. Which is a shame.
One assumes Peterson will get more at bats in Gwinnett than he would as the 25th guy in Atlanta.
@40. Less than a bucket of balls or a mess of catfish.
Our journalists have come to believe that every minor league player has value. IT. DOES. NOT.
There are about ~20 players in any miLB system that have any value, both fuVAL or in a trade scenario. The rest are organizational filler. Aaron Blair barely qualified as filler.
You can find 5,000 guys to put up a 5+ ERA in AAA.
I hope they really err on the side of caution with Acuna. Let Tucker, Culberson, and Bourjos man LF for a little longer than necessary. Give Inciarte some much-needed time off. I read where Acuna, Ozzie, Ender, Markakis, and Freddie have played almost every inning since Acuna was called up.
I’m excited about this team, and regardless of what happens with this series with the Nats, I think we’ll be in it late in the season. I wouldn’t be avoiding putting the best team on the field, but I think getting some of these guys in and out of there is a good idea.
@43…Chief
The feeding of the five thousand
the needing to have that many to choose from
the filler – bread, fish, wine.
the result- we’re still standing in the same place in line.
People act like the Braves are loaded with SP prospects. They’re loaded with a bunch of unproven AAAA types that may never be anything.
We have 4-5 legitimate starting pitching prospects and a lot of, to use Sickels’ grades, B- to B+/B prospects, which most don’t think are players you build around.
If this team doesn’t trade for a SP and a proven bullpen arm and more than likely a 3B, its going nowhere in a year that it could. Which is a shame.
If we don’t have any prospects… what are we going to trade?
Our journalists have come to believe that every minor league player has value. IT. DOES. NOT.
Literally no one has ever said this. Of the 400 or so minor leaguers in the system, maybe a combination of 25-30 could be traded to acquire significant major league talent. You speak in maxims to the point where nothing you say can be taken seriously.
Listen, agree to disagree about Matt Wisler. He is probably the only person that has created a healthy debate on whether or not he has trade value. If he has any, it’s minimal, so it’s really easy to agree to disagree. People are mostly on the same page about the rest of the Braves’ minor leaguers and prospects.
You seem to think that there’s a collection of Braves fans that think we’re going to trade Huscar Ynoa for Mike Trout, and no one thinks that.
Peterson’s call up might have just been a reward for the many months of hard work coming back from injury. If he’s got nowhere to play everyday then he needs to be in AAA.
But, that said, I’d rather see him in LF than any of the other options that we have. We are really limping into this Nats series.
Hot dog!
So I didn’t realize Bourjos couldn’t be called up until he was in the minors for 30 days. I wonder what we’ll do when Acuna is off the DL. Will he have to be released again?
BTW, I’m watching the game on TV in Virginia on the Nats broadcast. Their announcers almost make me miss Chip. They are serious homers.
Another great outing by Newcomb so far. Odd to see only 1 K through 6, though.
No way I pull Newcomb here
They really need a run. Only problem is Flaherty has turned back into Flaherty.
Ender really has to take second here. If he gets nailed, you have 2-3-4 next inning.
Ozhaino!
The Nats announcers are horrendous. As bad as they come.
Former Braves farmhand Tim Collins!
He was with Blanco in the Farnsworth-Ankiel trade, right? Or am I wrongly combining multiple trades? I suppose I could google…
Yep. The Nats announcers remind me of high school announcers. No wonder Sutton left them.
Not that these guys were there when Sutton was there, but them having jobs with the Nats says something about the organization’s priorities.
Actually, I think he and Carpenter may have overlapped, no? If I recall correctly, though, the Nats also had Rob Dibble back then.
Winkler is DEALING…… He just made Bryce look silly for strike 3.
And, yes, I agree that the Nats announcers are very annoying and big homers. I love it when the Braves play the gNats because I get to see on TV even if I have to mute it.
Winkler may be the best Rule 5 I have ever seen.
He’s definitely the best recent Braves Rule 5, after Andrew McKirahan got busted for PEDs. But the best overall recent Rule 5s are Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, and Odubel Herrera, and the best ever is Roberto Clemente.
Vizcaino should be very appreciative of the ump for those last two calls. It looks like he was ready for the game to be over.
Uh…can we get this umpire behind home plate the rest of the series?
Wasn’t Inciarte a Rule 5 pick?
He was, but he didn’t stick. He was returned to his original team.
https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2013/4/5/4187008/phillies-ender-inciarte-diamondbacks-rule-5-draft
Was worried after that first inning. Newk wasn’t.
Man, I hate the Nats. Love to see a win like this when the team’s been scuffling.
@61 Jose Bautista was a Rule 5 too but not by TOR. Which of those Rule 5s became stars with the team that drafted them as a Rule 5. Rule 5s are usually not ready even though they have been in pro ball for a long time (usually because they were signed as teenagers).
Recapped, folks.
Newk is awesome.