OK – time to play Guess that Stat.
The game is simple: Predict the 2016 Braves statistic in each of the following categories:
- Braves wins
- Francoeur HRs
- Dansby Swanson PAs
- Olivera RBIs
- Wisler Ws
- Freeman IBBs
- Garcia unintentional BBs
- Foltynewicz GS
- Team HRs
- Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day
This is AS A BRAVE. (When Freddie is traded at the break to the Yankees for some magic beans , his Yankee stats won’t count. ) I will be posting my (winning) entries shortly. So y’all are playing for second place.
The winner in each category will receive a free one-year subscription to Braves Journal. The overall winner will be awarded something from my rather dusty and unexciting collection of Braves souvenirs.
Entries must be received before first pitch Opening Day.
May the best man or woman win.
Okay, I’ll go first.
1. Braves wins 65
2. Francoeur HRs 4
3. Dansby Swanson PAs 20
4. Olivera RBIs 55
5. Wisler Ws 9
6. Freeman IBBs 20
7. Garcia unintentional BBs 19
8. Foltynewicz GS 15
9. Team HRs 100
10. Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day 12
1. Braves wins 70
2. Francoeur HRs 2
3. Dansby Swanson PAs 36
4. Olivera RBIs 60
5. Wisler Ws 12
6. Freeman IBBs 7
7. Garcia unintentional BBs 29
8. Foltynewicz GS 10
9. Team HRs 102
10. Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day 9
1. Braves wins 59
2. Francouer HRs 0
3. Swanson PAs 50
4. Olivera RBIs 46
5. Wisler Ws 6
6. Freeman IBBs 15
7. Garcia BBs 20
8. Folty GS 8
9. Team HRs 96
10. Players not on opening day roster 10
1. Braves wins 69
2. Francoeur HRs 1
3. Dansby Swanson PAs 112 🙂
4. Olivera RBIs 66
5. Wisler Ws 7
6. Freeman IBBs 20
7. Garcia unintentional BBs 15
8. Foltynewicz GS 6
9. Team HRs 99
10. Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day 10
My hope does spring eternal.
1. Braves wins 81
2. Francoeur HRs 3
3. Dansby Swanson PAs 120
4. Olivera RBIs 75
5. Wisler Ws 14
6. Freeman IBBs 32
7. Garcia unintentional BBs 27
8. Foltynewicz GS 18
9. Team HRs 90
10. Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day 9
1, Braves wins….73
2, Frenchy HRs….11
3, Swanson PAs….106
4, Olivera RBIs….79
5, Wisler wins…..11
6, Freeman IBB…..19
7, Garcia UBBs…..26
8, Folty GS……..10
9, Team HRs……..106
10,Aug 15th……..12
Braves wins: 68
Francoeur HRs: 2
Swanson PAs: 229
Olivera RBIs: 37
Wisler Ws: 10
Freeman IBBs: 19
Garcia UIBBs: 12
Foltynewicz GS: 0
Team HRs: 84
Players on 8/15 25-man roster but not Opening Day roster: 11
For what its worth:
1. Braves wins: 62
2. Francoeur HR 7
3. Dansby Swanson PA’s 100
4. Olivera’s RBI’s 61
5. Wisler’s W’s 8
6. Freeman’s IBB’s 30
7. Garcia’s unintential BB’s 35
8. Foltynewicz GS 10
9. Team HR 135
10. Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day: 13
Braves wins: 72
Francoeur HRs: 7
Swanson PAs: 63
Olivera RBIs: 71
Wisler Ws: 9
Freeman IBBs: 18
Garcia UIBBs: 8
Foltynewicz GS: 13
Team HRs: 97
Players on 8/15 25-man roster but not Opening Day roster: 13
Braves wins: 72
Francoeur HRs: 12
Swanson PAs: 112
Olivera RBIs: 67
Wisler Ws: 11
Freeman IBBs: 15
Garcia UIBBs: 4
Foltynewicz GS: 10
Team HRs: 105
Players on 8/15 25-man roster but not Opening Day roster: 19
I did this without looking at anyone else’s and I’m both im- and de- pressed at the degree of consensus.
1. Braves wins: 71
2. Francoeur home runs: 8
3. Dansby Swanson PAs: 66
4. Olivera’s RBIs: 80
5. Wisler’s W’s: 10
6. Freeman’s IBBs: 10
7. Garcia’s unintentional BBs: 15
8. Foltynewicz GS: 15
9. Team HR: 130
10. Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day: 11
@11, the wisdom of crowds!
@11, I did try to buck the consensus where I thought it’d make sense, but in most cases it just doesn’t. Francoeur still hits like he’s got a bat made of pine or some other softwood, and there’s a lot of obvious injury and waiver wire bait on this roster.
1) Wins: 75
2) Frenchy HR: 3
3) Swanson PA: 45
4) Olivera RBI: 65
5) Wisler W: 12
6) Freeman IBB: 18
7) Garcia unIBB: 25
8) Folty GS: 24
9) Team HR: 105
10) 8/15 Newbies: 9
Peanut says Sean Burnett is now on our radar. Sure, he’d probably be our #2 right now
The Swanson PA number is kind of intriguing.
1. Braves wins 77
2. Francoeur HRs 3
3. Dansby Swanson PAs 93
4. Olivera RBIs 74
5. Wisler Ws 5 (but lots of no decisions)
6. Freeman IBBs 31
7. Garcia unintentional BBs 12
8. Foltynewicz GS 2
9. Team HRs 121
10. Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day 14
Now for the winning entries:
Braves wins 70
Francoeur HRs 3
Dansby Swanson PAs 128
Olivera RBIs 59
Wisler Ws 10
Freeman IBBs 18
Garcia unintentional BBs 9
Foltynewicz GS 11
Team HRs 121
Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 11
358 total.
Bonifacio has been cut
DFA’d Michael Bourn
I guess they gave him an ultimatum.
The Bourn Inferiority
Stubbs and Bourn are pretty similar players, except there doesn’t seem to be the perception that Stubbs is physically done. For the 25th spot on the roster, you might as well go with someone who could surprise you. Eury, Cunningham, Bourn, those guys can’t do anything. Plus, the lefty/righty thing.
Being terrible is being terrible, and while it’s possible to go from a 65-win team to a contender in a year (’91 Braves, ’08 Rays, ’15 Rangers), I’d really like us to get into the 70’s in wins, especially with known help on the way. I’m sick of hearing “95 loss team”. Say what you want, but losing in the 80’s sounds a heck of a lot better than losing in the 90’s. You never hear, “Man, this is a 92 loss team right there.” It’s always 100.
1. Braves wins 64 (sigh)
2. Francoeur HRs 2
3. Dansby Swanson PAs 30
4. Olivera RBIs 80
5. Wisler Ws 6
6. Freeman IBBs 10
7. Garcia unintentional BBs 35
8. Foltynewicz GS 7
9. Team HRs 90
10. Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day 13
18Hap Says:
1. Braves wins 69
2. Francoeur HRs 9
3. Dansby Swanson PAs 0
4. Olivera RBIs 53
5. Wisler Ws 9
6. Freeman IBBs 28
7. Garcia unintentional BBs 17
8. Foltynewicz GS 13
9. Team HRs 111
10. Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day 18
If you rostered Stubbs on your fantasy team in ’14 and put him in the lineup only against LH starters at Coors, it was like having Babe Ruth on your team for 20 games. He OPS’ed 911 vs LHP and 999 at Coors, and when you combined the two it was something like 1300.
1. Braves wins 73
2. Francoeur HRs 3
3. Dansby Swanson PAs 50
4. Olivera RBIs 68
5. Wisler Ws 11
6. Freeman IBBs 12
7. Garcia unintentional BBs 15
8. Foltynewicz GS 17
9. Team HRs 112
10. Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day 8
Braves wins 66
Francoeur HRs 4
Dansby Swanson PAs 0
Olivera RBIs 44
Wisler Ws 7
Freeman IBBs 20
Garcia unintentional BBs 16
Foltynewicz GS 8
Team HRs 115
Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day
Braves wins – 63
Francoeur HRs – 4
Dansby Swanson PAs – 75
Olivera RBIs – 65
Wisler Ws – 8
Freeman IBBs – 13
Garcia unintentional BBs – 18
Foltynewicz GS – 20
Team HRs – 84
Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day – 12
Braves win 70 games
Frenchy HR’s 6
Frenchy K’s 114 (oh, that’s not a category?)
Dansby Swanson plate apps 0
Olivera RBI’s 77
Wisler wins 10
Freeman IBB’s (where’s the symbol for infinity?) OK 22
Garcia un-IBB’s. 2
28
Folty starts 12
Team HR’s 88 (about as many as Aaron & Mathews in a good year together)
# players not here OD 10
Braves wins – 74
Francoeur HRs – 8
Swanson PAs – 85
Olivera RBIs – 62
Wisler W’s – 9
Freeman IBBs – 9
Garcia unIBBs – 7
Foltynewicz GS – 16
Team HRs – 102
Players on roster August 15th who weren’t on it OD – 11
If the team really wanted to get rid of Chris Johnson, why not just release him? Why end up eating two stupid contracts where you end up cutting both guys anyway?
Made a spreadsheet to make tracking a little easier. And to better judge the wisdom of the crowd.
Let me know if I have your numbers wrong. Timo, didn’t see your Aug 15 roster prediction.
#33 – even $$ deal. Apparently the braves thought one of those 2 might be able to rebuild some trade value. Didn’t work out but at least Atlanta clears all of the salary off the books this year. Johnson was through 2017
@35, and that’s the logical answer, which is true, but these are real people, and I bet you they got sick of dealing with CJ and wanted someone knew to look at. And Swish and Bourn are good clubhouse guys, and CJ is not.
I’m definitely gunning for one of those one-year subscriptions to Braves Journal. That’s a hot commodity item right there!
Braves wins: 69
Francoeur HRs: 1
Dansby Swanson PAs: 24
Olivera RBIs: 43
Wisler Ws: 9
Freeman IBBs: 21
Garcia unintentional BBs: -1
Foltynewicz GS: 5
Team HRs: 98 over the fence, 1 inside the park HR
Number of players on 25 man on 8/15 not on OD: 18 (and three new bat boys)
Braves Wins: 67
Francoeur HRs: 3
Dansby Swanson PAs: 39
Olivera RBIs: 55
Wisler Wins: 4
Freeman IBBs: 20
Garcia unintentional BBs: 5
Foltynewicz GS: 6
Team HRs: 100
Number of players on 25 man on 8/15 not on opening day roster: 13
1. Braves wins: 60
2. Francouer HR: 3
3. Swanson PA: 110
4. Olivera RBI: 40
5. Wisler W: 8
6. Freeman IBB: 9
7. Garcia UiBB: 7
8. Folty GS: 18
9. Team HR: 98
10. Players not on Opening Day 25 on Aug 15: 15
Based on roster construction, it seems Gant would be the odd man out if we add a lefty. Everyone else seems to be productive, out of options, or Rule 5.
Braves Wins: 68
Francoeur HRs: 3
Dansby Swanson PAs: 65
Olivera RBIs: 61
Wisler Wins: 9
Freeman IBBs: 12
Garcia unintentional BBs: 12
Foltynewicz GS: 10
Team HRs: 100
Number of players on 25 man on 8/15 not on opening day roster: 9
Braves Wins: 64
Francoeur HRs: 2
Dansby Swanson PAs: 81
Olivera RBIs: 49
Wisler Wins: 6
Freeman IBBs: 8
Garcia unintentional BBs: 17
Foltynewicz GS: 13
Team HRs: 107
Number of players on 25 man on 8/15 not on opening day roster: 10
@34, ja sorry… 15
Braves Wins: 76
Francoeur HRs: 8
Dansby Swanson PAs: 52
Olivera RBIs: 74
Wisler Wins: 11
Freeman IBBs: 10
Garcia unintentional BBs: 24
Foltynewicz GS: 14
Team HRs: 122
Number of players on 25 man on 8/15 not on opening day roster: 8
Fredi has some options, there is no doubt. Here are my hopes of 2016…
1. Williams Perez is up for 1 start, then Chacin moves to the 4th spot, and Gant leaves long relief for the 5th rotation spot.
2 Norris and Chacin keep their ERAs in the low-4s, are traded late June, and Braves go with a young rotation of Teheran, Wisler, Folty, Gant, and Blair.
3. Albies, Mallex and Dansby show they are ready for the show and get callups in September, hyping excitement for the 2017 season.
4. Newcomb gets the BB-rate under control and dazzles as a callup in September
5. Winkler establishes himself as a late-inning reliever.
6. Olivera takes a step forward, hits north of .300 with an OPS around .800, but in the middle of the year is moved back to 3b due to Adonis Garcia’s inability to field grounders.
7. In a trade that sends one of our surplus SPers and a variety of veterans to a contending team, the Braves acquire their catcher of the future.
1) Wins: 57
2) Frenchy HR: 1
3) Swanson PA: 32
4) Olivera RBI: 52
5) Wisler W: 7
6) Freeman IBB: 21
7) Garcia unIBB: 11
8) Folty GS: 18
9) Team HR: 80
10) 8/15 Newbies: 19
Braves wins: 70
Francoeur HRs: 7
Swanson PAs: 90
Olivera RBIs: 57
Wisler Ws: 9
Freeman IBBs: 11
Garcia unintentional BBs: 24
Foltynewicz GS: 14
Team HRs: 121
25-man: 12
@46
I’m just not sure if the Braves plan on moving Olivera back to 3B, but that would really help the rebuild. So much easier to find LF offense.
Other than that, I’d love to see at least 5 of those things happen, which is very doable. I would also add trading some excess starting pitching for a young lefty reliever. There’s just nothing on the farm that could work, but we have plenty of right-handed starting pitching and reliever prospects.
Also wouldn’t surprise me if we traded Markakis is Mallex turns in a strong first half.
Braves Wins: 69
Francoeur HRs: 9
Dansby Swanson PAs: 65
Olivera RBIs: 68
Wisler Wins: 10
Freeman IBBs: 14
Garcia unintentional BBs: 22
Foltynewicz GS: 15
Team HRs: 102
Number of players on 25 man on 8/15 not on opening day roster: 9
Also wouldn’t surprise me if we traded Markakis is Mallex turns in a strong first half.
I’m still assuming nobody wants Markakis. Many want Inciarte, and Mallex is a CF. I imagine as soon as Mallex shows he’s ready, Inciarte is out the door for whatever damaged-goods/control-problems pitching prospect Coppolella has been salivating over. I am resigning myself to enjoying this in-between time that’ll represent the high water mark of the return on Heyward/Shelby/however you want to think of it.
@34 — It’s the same amount of money either way; the question is whether you’d rather have some in 2016 and some in 2017, or all of it in 2016. If you plan to spend in 2017, it obviously makes more sense to clear all of your bad money before then. Plus, there was an outside chance that Bourn or Swisher could rebound and either help the team or become a trade asset — not a great one, but at their best they were better players than Chris Johnson, and I’d pick either of them to have a bounceback season before I’d pick Chris Johnson to do the same.
Obviously it didn’t work out in the end, but it was a calculated risk, and if (if) the Braves do something useful with the freed-up money during the offseason or next year, it will have been a good move regardless of what any of the three players involved ended up doing.
@51 — The Orioles wanted Markakis in the offseason, apparently. The Braves refused to sell him, which baffles me, but there you go. Maybe some team has a gaping outfield hole during the summer and needs an average-ish performer to fill in the gap. He’s not a dead asset.
Also, you’re giving up on Swanson and Blair pretty early, there.
I think a team with a RF need would give us a Luis Avilan-type, slightly-unreliable-from-year-to-year reliever, which we would probably go for if we were trying to free up payroll and still need a need in the pen.
1.Braves wins – 63
2.Francoeur HRs – 2
3.Dansby Swanson PAs – 150
4.Olivera RBIs – 57
5.Wisler Ws – 7
6.Freeman IBBs – 17
7.Garcia unintentional BBs – 13
8.Foltynewicz GS – 10
9.Team HRs – 105
10.Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day – 7
Note: “-” Does NOT indicate a minus sign. In most cases.
Braves wins – 73
Francoeur HRs – 7
Dansby Swanson PAs – 70
Olivera RBIs – 80
Wisler Ws – 12
Freeman IBBs – 13
Garcia unintentional BBs – 13
Foltynewicz GS – 19
Team HRs – 112
Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day – 9
@52, That makes me feel better. Perhaps we just didn’t like the Orioles’ offer. Or we probably asked for Hunter Harvey.
I’m less giving up on Swanson/Blair and more saying that Swanson/Blair/Inciarte > Swanson/Blair/let’s just say Tyler Kolek as a placeholder, even though the Marlins don’t need Inciarte.
Braves wins – 67
Francoeur HRs – 4
Dansby Swanson PAs – 75
Olivera RBIs – 75
Wisler Ws – 12
Freeman IBBs – 24
Garcia unintentional BBs – 14
Foltynewicz GS – 11
Team HRs – 100
Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day – 9
Wonder what the D’backs would be willing to give up for Inciarte now that Pollock is on the shelf?
Dare we ask for Shelby Miller – straight up?
BW – 54
FHR – 3
DSPA – 13
ORBI – 63
WW – 9
FIBB – 11
GUBB – 6
FGS – 0
THR – 96
# non-25 -14
Closest comp – 1988 Braves
Braves wins 75
Francoeur HRs 1
Dansby Swanson PAs 120
Olivera RBIs 75
Wisler Ws 6
Freeman IBBs 2
Garcia unintentional BBs 12
Foltynewicz GS 0
Team HRs 105
New Players: 14
Surely there will be a mid-season market for Markakis if he’s healthy. He’s a little past his prime, but he’s no Swisher or Bourn. He was ninth in NL OBP last year. Ninth!
I don’t see Markakis as an albatross, but I also don’t see him as being worth significantly more than the price of his contract. If we traded him and didn’t send any money with him, I find it hard to believe we’d get more than a marginal return in prospects.
@62- And 61st in slugging. Among qualified players. Of whom there were 65.
Braves wins: 72
Francoeur HRs: 5
Dansby Swanson PAs: 40
Olivera RBIs: 80
Wisler Ws: 10
Freeman IBBs: 14
Garcia unintentional BBs: 14
Foltynewicz GS: 22
Team HRs: 89
Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day: 8
Braves wins = 92
Francoeur HRs = 13
Dansby Swanson PAs = 110
Olivera RBIs = 76
Wisler Ws = 9
Freeman IBBs = 58
Garcia unintentional BBs = 40
Foltynewicz GS = 14
Team HRs = 134
Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day = 9
With suboptimal power at so many positions, you have to upgrade RF, especially when the player isn’t below market value. With so many below market positions projected for 2017, you need to just go market value and get that $25M a year RF. One could argue that a $6M per, .800 OPS left fielder in Olivera is below market value nowadays.
Braves wins: 66
Francoeur HRs: 6
Dansby Swanson PAs: 0
Olivera RBIs: 57
Wisler Ws: 11
Freeman IBBs: 14
Garcia unintentional BBs: 23
Foltynewicz GS: 19
Team HRs: 121
Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day: 12
I guess it’s bad that I initially thought “Foltynewicz GS” was asking how many grand slams Folty would allow.
VU scored two runs on a bunt this weekend. That was pretty awesome. (Don’t tell Fredi.)
Braves wins: 66
Fancoeur HRs: 5
Swanson PAs: 65
Olivera RBIs: 63
Wisler Ws: 8
Freeman IBBs: 11
Garcia unintentional BBs: 12
Foltynewicz GS: 13
Team HRs: 110
Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day: 9
New thread — all predictions have been averaged and posted!
Braves wins: 72
Fancoeur HRs: 7
Swanson PAs: 105
Olivera RBIs: 67
Wisler Ws: 11
Freeman IBBs: 21
Garcia unintentional BBs: 21
Foltynewicz GS: 11
Team HRs: 114
Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day: 11