We had a total of 39 guesses, so these numbers have a pretty wide body of possibilities here. With thanks to Jay’s spreadsheet, I’ll provide the average, min, max, and standard deviation for each of these. (I’ll round to the nearest whole number.)
1. Braves wins
Average: 69 wins
Min: 54, Max: 92
Standard deviation: 6.8 wins
2. Francoeur home runs
Average: 5 homers
Min: 0, Max: 13
Standard deviation: 3.3 homers
3. Dansby Swanson plate appearances
Average: 70 PAs
Min: 0, Max: 229
Standard deviation: 47.3 PAs
4. Olivera runs batted in
Average: 63 RBI
Min: 37, Max: 80
Standard deviation: 12.4 RBI
5. Wisler wins
Average: 9 wins
Min: 4, Max: 14
Standard deviation: 2.2 wins
6. Freeman intentional walks
Average: 17 IBB
Min: 2, Max: 58
Standard deviation: 9.7 IBB
7. Garcia unintentional walks
Average: 17 UIBB
Min: 0, Max: 40
Standard deviation: 9.3 UIBB
8. Foltynewicz games started
Average: 12 GS
Min: 0, Max: 24
Standard deviation: 6.0 GS
9. Team home runs
Average: 105 team HR
Min: 80, Max: 135
Standard deviation: 13.6 HR
10. Number of players on 25-man roster on August 15 who weren’t on it Opening Day
Average: 12 players
Min: 7, Max: 19
Standard deviation: 3.2 players
Thanks to all for providing a guess. This method, famously, has been shown to be remarkably accurate when it comes to things like counting the number of jellybeans in a jar. The only one of these guesses that I have trouble believing is the number of wins. If we pull 69 wins out of our behinds, I’ll never complain about Mark Lemke’s radio voice again.
I am remarkably near the mean in everything except DAnsby. And that was pure wishcasting on my part.
Very interesting survey. I also wonder how many starts we’ll get from Aaron Blair and how many starts we’ll see from Kelly Johnson. If Garcia regresses to what was expected of him pre-2015 (very little), I have a feeling Fredi will have him on a pretty short leash.
The issue with just going out and getting the stud outfielder to replace Markakis (from the last thread) is: Who? There aren’t any on the free agent market next year, unless you want to roll the dice on Jose Bautista’s decline phase. You kind of have to hope that some team has a bad season and decides to sell off their parts, and if that happens you’ve got lots of competition. You could maybe nab the last year of Carlos Gonzalez’s contract if he hasn’t been dealt to someone else by then.
I’m all for dumping Markakis, but you don’t do it just to do it. If it just means you have to go out and find some other random guy who isn’t any better, it doesn’t really help you. You need to get a real return.
Well, yeah, there’s no point in dumping him. We won’t have to, though — even at his power-sapped level of output last year, he’s a perfect second-tier high floor acquisition for a contender looking to stabilize a corner OF position.
@3
If Todd Frazier had become available next offseason, then I think we would have been all over it. So that would be the example of the player that the Braves should pursue. Of course, he’s a 3B, and not a RF. Plus, there may not be a fire sale like the Braves’ did next offseason, but in that offseason, teams had the option of acquiring Evan Gattis, Justin Upton, and Jason Heyward. Those options may not all come from one team, but they’ll come from the marketplace. If there wasn’t insurmountable competition for a guy like Heyward (and Walden, don’t forget) to where the deal got done for a rebounding young pitcher and a B pitching prospect, then we should be just fine. And take it down the line for Gattis and Upton. The D-Back’s Miller trade isn’t the market setter for trades, but even if it was, our staff was on the winning side of it, so I trust that we’ll know when to hold ’em and know when to fold ’em.
We need 7 months of average to above average appreciation for about 12-14 prospects, which will significantly change things quickly. The interesting thing about baseball is the vast majority of your assets are depreciating, but so much of our value is going up. 7 months of aggregate improvement of our top 20 prospects is going to make someone like Frazier/Upton/Heyward/Gattis very attainable.
And the market for Markakis is clear: a team that can take on around $11M to fill their right field void, don’t want to deal prospects, and can’t find an acceptable alternative at that price on the free agent market. You only need one trade partner.
“We need 7 months of average to above average appreciation for about 12-14 prospects”
This is wishcasting in the extreme. I’m not trying to be intentionally negative just to stir the pot on this one. This is just not how prospects work. If even a third of them turn out to be useful we’ll be doing well.
I absolutely agree. I’m not saying 12-14 prospects are going to become major league baseball players. What I’m saying is that 12-14 of our 20 prospects need to take one step forward. That means Ricardo Sanchez needs to get to single-A. It means Austin Riley needs to be successful in single-A. Chris Ellis needs to have a good season at double-A. But it also compensates for Max Fried not returning from TJ, Dustin Peterson continuing to suck and shift down the defensive spectrum, etc. I’m saying the values of 2/3 of these players need to increase to where today a trade of Tyrell Jenkins, Rio Ruiz, and Jason Hursh doesn’t get you a Todd Frazier, but next year it does. I’m not saying they need to have major league value; they just need to have an acceptable level of risk for another team. And when you have a #1 farm system in baseball, expecting some steps forward is very reasonable.
@5
Rob Cope
is certainly not one to sit around and mope
intensely numerical
he somehow maintains an outlook not entirely hysterical.
don’t know how you do it, so consistently, so often but the total effect is strangely positive in these woebegotten times. Thanks.
@7, we’ll have to do some digging to see who is potentially available for a deal like that. We know the FA class is pretty skimpy next year, but not sure about the guys on the last year of deals that are probably going to be tough for their teams to re-sign.
I tend to think that we really aren’t in a position to be trading away tons of young players. We need a lot of them on the big club and soon. The current MLB roster is going to have to see near 90% turnover in order for this team to compete.
Stop being hyperbolic. This team does not need 90% roster turnover…unless you think only 2-3 players on our roster have any place in the big leagues.
You keep Freeman, Teheran, and a pitcher or two…who else?
According to him, Inciarte, Olivera, Garcia (as a bench player), Wisler, Folty, and Grilli (let alone the arguments to be made for Peterson, Gant, and Perez in certain roles) have no place on a 91 win team , which would have won you our division.
Inciarte won’t be on the team past the deadline. Olivera/Garcia…ok maybe one, but not both. I’d keep Wisler and Vizcaino. That’s about it.
Bless your heart.
Bless us all.
Happy Opening Day everyone!
The good news is that the Rome Braves roster looks pretty awesome. The bad news is that they might take a best of seven against the Atlanta Braves.
Whether Inciarte will be traded is immaterial to whether we “need 90% roster turnover”. We could also trade Freeman, Olivera, Vizcaino, and Teheran, etc. but that doesn’t mean they need to be gotten rid of in order for us to compete.
Good morning from Oahu. I am looking for the season to start. Like last year, it will be a relaxing season to watch for Braves fans. Looking forward to watching Teheran get back on track and hopefully Folty in not too long time. Go Braves!
@15
Ed Ward
is he Ordained, the thought has occurred?
if not ’tis still a sweet gesture
else deep in our cups we are destined to fester.
When we are competitive again we will have new 2B, SS, 3B, RF, CF, and C…three or four new starting pitchers and a very different looking bullpen. Would 68.7% turnover make y’all happier? I’ll try to be more exact going forward.
Happy opening day everyone!!
Here’s to the Braves getting the first of 69 wins today!
*66
@20, If you haven’t noticed, most of the arguments people have with you on here involve whether things are nearly so catastrophically bad as you say. You can’t still be totally surprised by it each time.
@20
k russell
an extraordinary degree of hustle
but could he soon be seeking rapprochement?
indeed he is, two thirds are all he now insists be gone.
@18
timo…
Barcelona and Oahu both in almost the same breath…what’s the secret?
John Oliver hilariously takes on the Evil Empire:
http://tinyurl.com/j2a4l8t
I’ll be at Bronx games 1 & 2, so I’ll certainly be looking for these people, especially this guy:
http://tinyurl.com/js3enx6
#18
Timo, are you at all on the North Shore?
@23, if the current team isn’t as bad as it gets then I really don’t want to see what’s worse. I don’t understand what’s so hyperbolic about stating that the vast majority of today’s opening day roster is not going to be around in 2018 when we start to compete again.
Most people here predicted that nearly half of it won’t be around before 2016 season end.
On first draft pick news, my home town boy Robert Tyler pitched 6 innings of perfect ball Friday against Alabama (ranked 21 coming in). Then, he pitched no hitter until 2 outs in the ninth and gave up a solo home run. Got named a co SEC pitcher of the week and a Louisville Slugger honoree.
http://www.georgiadogs.com/sports/m-basebl/spec-rel/040416aab.html
Someone guessed 58 IBB for Freeman? LOL.
And someone guessed 92 wins? Gotta be a typo.
@27, “I don’t understand what’s so hyperbolic about stating that the vast majority of today’s opening day roster is not going to be around in 2018 when we start to compete again.”
Nothing. But that’s not what you were saying. If you’re trolling, it is quite well done.
#20 – Why would we need a new CF when we are competitive?
@32, I’m assuming Inciarte is a short-term flip. Unless you think Mallex Smith will play LF or something (in which case we probably aren’t competitive).
all right, let’s get the SS Lusitania underway.
28—Tyler’s good, but I admit that I will be highly disappointed if that’s the Braves’ selection at #3 overall.
Sigh. I knew we would have to actually start playing real games at some point in time. Did Frenchy have a good ST? Is just being Frenchy enough to secure a spot on the Braves? I only half assed looked for ST stats so there is that.
Well like some of the other older guys here at Braves Journal, I’ve been through this before. Hopefully Cappy and company know what the hell they are doing. Another decade would be a terrible thing for a guy my age to waste.
It’s weird to see these guys from the ’97 Braves with gray hair and beards.
@25 blazon, Barcelona was for business and now I am on vacation.
I have a good feeling about the game today. Usually, as far as I remember the past years, the Braves are winning Game 1 of the season.
Booing Bryce Harper is one of the stupidist things Atlanta fans do.
Well, we’ll be seeing a lot of that.
Timely pickoff, do you think?
Can’t watch the game right now but following score at work. I looked up and it was 1-0, and I knew exactly how the run scored.
I don’t think Aybar is quite as strong as Simmons defensively. Not sure if we’ve discussed that…
I miss Andrelton.
Wherefore art thou, Andrelton?
How poetic. In the first inning of the season, Teheran gives up a gopher and Aybar commits an error. We didn’t even make it one half inning before we missed Andrelton.
Guess who would have made that play?
@39
Who’s stupider? The fans who boo Bryce Harper or the fans who don’t understand why he’s booed? I know what my money’s on.
Hello again everyone, BTW. Happy Opening Day!
Thank goodness for Dusty Baker
@47 I think every major-league quality shortstop would make that play. Not a great way to introduce yourself there, Aybar.
Every Major League quality shortstop should make that play, anyway. That’s kind of the definition of an error in the rule book.
Aybar is not making a good first impression.
FREDDIE!!! Man, that carried!
So there.
Fredward!
I RETRACT EVERYTHING.
They should have issued him an IBB…
Aybar is wearing flip-down shades at SS; first off, that’s strange, right? Second of all, I seem to recall Andruw Jones wearing a very similar pair – anyone confirm this? In any event, it appears the sunglasses have not gifted Aybar with any defensive merit.
Go Braves! Prove that krussell wrong!
Neck’s taking it the other way, I see.
If they make the playoffs I want at least a partial share
Julio’s throwing a lot of pitches, but so far he’s hanging in there. Barely.
Could we please score a couple of more off this bum?
Chip’s in midseason form, and so am I. I’ve already told him to shut up five time, and I’m still counting.
It the Braves make the playoffs, it will be due to the motivation inspired by the constant deriding of krussell. This man has the rare combination of Facebook commenter negativity and Braves Journal intelligence. He’s a two-way player.
Poor Julio. He’s just a ROOGY.
Julio hasn’t changed
Lefties not named Ben Revere have a 5000 OPS against Julio.
If Julio could cut his gopherball rate he’d be a heck of a pitcher.
The Greek God of Opening Day homers!
Adonis, nice swing
Seems like any ball hit in the air has a good chance of going out.
Adonis with the one-handed dinger! I hope he turns into this year’s Gattis.
Scherzer can give up some dingers too. If you don’t walk guys it’s an acceptable trade-off.
Yup.
I like Rendon a bunch.
@71, “some” is A-OK. But last year, Teheran’s HR/9 was 1.2, 7th-worst in the National League. If he even gets that down to 1.0, he’ll be alright.
I believe that our boy and their bum have thrown the same number of pitches through five. Whodathunkit?
So Fredi let Teheran bat there in the bottom of the inning. What are the chances he pulls Teheran in the top of the 6th?
Good six innings, Julio. Take a shower.
102 pitches of constant tightrope. Slap him on the butt and take the ball from his hand.
Edit: what coop said.
Yeah, I concur. That’s gotta be it for Julio, but nice job keeping us in it.
Wow-wow Winkler.
Not bad, new guy.
Damn, Daniel.
I’d forgotten they’d instituted that stupid rule.
Markakis continuing to produce very little positive with his needless take out slide
Chase Utley is the gift that keeps on giving.
Did anybody hear where chip was arguing that AJP is a hall of fame candidate? His top stat: 186 career HR is 5th all time among LH hitting catchers. At some point you have to think about insulting the intelligence of your viewership
Winkvizilli?
Well, Vizcaino certainly looked good.
Why do Joe and Chip think Vizciano is throwing a change up? It’s clearly his breaking ball, but anytime it doesn’t have a ton of horizontal movement it becomes a change up..?
They’ve both been in and/or around baseball their entire lives… I just don’t get it.
Plate appearances for Francoeur’s first walk in his first tenure with the Braves: 131.
With his second tenure: 1.
Frenchy busts out the walking stick!
Francoeur walks. LOL.
I see Jeffy still has his OBP skills.
Andrelton would GIDP here.
Ender Oppy = Joe getting aroused
I’m not really looking forward to another Hatfield-McCoy headhunting battle between the Nats and Braves this year. I don’t think they were throwing at Freddie, but this had better stop.
GameDay’s being weird again. Ball 1 in the dirt is shown in the middle of the strike zone.
I could get used to this scoring runs without effort thing.
Feeling pretty good about my 2016 unintentional walk total for Adonis.
Nats bullpen looks like their weak spot.
Wow. Walks by Garcia and Francoeur.
Dusty Baker, Manager Extraordinaire
In fairness, it did bounce into the middle of the strike zone.
Sweet merciful crap, Francoeur and Adonis walked in the same half-inning.
@97
LOL…were you the one who said zero?
My dog is really enjoying this inning so far..
@103, I was on the high side. “High” being mid- to high-20s. (Too lazy to go check. 27?)
Grilli getting squeezed
Drama. Already.
Lame.
Almost had ’em, so let’s win it now.
I hope this doesn’t become a trend. That would be annoying. As in I’ll need to start a “replacing smashed monitors” fund.
Listening on the radio. Sounds like Inciarte made a bad throw to the plate
Trend? You mean, blowing leads & losing games? This year, I’ll guess that’ll be what defines us.
Still, let’s win this right here.
A bad throw that could’ve been handled by AJ, yes.
GameDay says Fredi inserted Grilli into the game in the position that was ABOUT to hit, not the one that just hit. That can’t be, right?
Inciarte’s throw was on-target and beat Werth to the plate but the ball short-hopped AJP a little bit. He was unable to corral it and Werth knocked the ball out at home plate.
To paraphrase Skip, free bad baseball!
I’m at the game. No replays on the scoreboard.
Chip: Free baseball on Opening Day! Does it get any better than that?
Uh…yeah. Like, we could’ve won the game five minutes ago.
Bad dawg.
Could be a long season.
Very rarely do I say that my out of shape self could have made a play. I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t have tried to throw it to my buddy in the stands instead of Freddie.
Eric O’Flaherty: You Can’t Go Home Again, Because Our Fielders Will Screw You Over.
Beckham fits right in with the clown show
Beckham is crap
I will say that at least the game has been entertaining.
2016 games lost because of Simmons trade: 1
@124
Thanks, Chip!
Grilli delenda est.
At least Beckham can hit. On second thought, what exactly can Gordon do?
Win some. Lose some. Give some away.
I don’t want 161 more like this. And no, that doesn’t mean I don’t want the Braves to lose them because they couldn’t hit pollution if they fell into the Chattahoochee.
Oh well, I’m still confident the Braves will win 100…. over the next 2 years.
On pace for 0-162
Fart.
bah…at least Norris vs. Strasburg is pretty even on paper
2016 Braves: Mellon Collie and the Infinite Sadness, Part Deux.
On pace to our 69 wins predictions!
If this was a good team that was supposed to win I would be upset. Oh well.
Nothing to really say except that the script played out…but…damn Winkler looked freaking great. Good thing we didn’t have him pitch to too many batters.
I feel numb.
@63
I heard they have a cardboard krussell cutout in the clubhouse from which they will remove one scrap of clothing every time the magic number goes down.
Here is my report from the Ted:
-They were not ready for the crowd. The consession lines were massive. They ran out of dogs and beer.
-No replays on the Jumbotron
-They didn’t hire enough game staff
Apparently Fredi is using Vizcaino in higher leverage situations, thus using him in the 8th vs. the heart of the order. Innovative.
Fredi was pretty good today. He didn’t order Beckham to throw it 20 yards off target. Or did he? hmmm.
Inciarte threw a two hopper from deep SS, otherwise we steal a win.
@142, And it depresses his arb salaries too.
I blame Beckham for the UNC loss
Jay Wright had quite a game tonight.
Recap up.