I guess that’s about the best we could have hoped for. Lowe went out every fifth day and gave the Braves league-average pitching, which with the Braves’ offense and relief pitching was enough to win more than they lost. It wasn’t worth $15 million, but in the current market, it was worth $10 million, maybe. He saw a rebound in his strikeout rate, from a very borderline 5.1 per nine in 2009 to 6.3, which is about what he averaged in 2007-08, and helped him go from allowing a .301 batting average to .271.
Unlike Hanson, Lowe got a lot of support, at least early in the season before Chipper and Prado got hurt and the offense went to pot, and went 16-12. He might have won twenty if Bobby had gotten him out of there sooner; he had a 9.00 ERA in the sixth inning, and several times lost leads, or saw baserunners he allowed score off of relievers to lose them.
And then, as the team was collapsing, he pitched much better, going 5-0 with a 1.12 ERA in September and October, plus two strong starts with nothing to show for it against the Giants in postseason. He basically metamorphosed into Greg Maddux and stopped walking anyone, allowing just three bases on balls in 30 2/3 innings, while striking out 29. They probably would have missed the playoffs without him. I don’t really have any explanation for it, as this goes beyond getting your sinker working to being a different person. Suffice it to say, I don’t think that it’s sustainable.
Derek Lowe Statistics
Just an observation, but D-Lowe has a career 3.23 era in Sept/Oct and a 4.86 in July. I think Derek might be a cooler-weather pitcher. His career era is also 1/2 a run higher during the day than at night.
I want to avoid talking bad about him because of how well he pitched at the end.
The biggest change I noticed last year was that he finally started throwing something other then sinkers.
His slider is quite good. Why the hell he hardly ever used it after getting pounded by hitters waiting for an ill-thrown sinker is beyond me, but perhaps he’s learned.
The guy that pitched in August and September earned his money.
Kentucky signed a pretty good class! For us. That means we finished, uh, eleventh again. Wonder if the ACC would like some hillbillies.
The thing about Lowe, however, is that we all knew he wasn’t a true ace when he signed but he was supposed to be an innings eater. He really hasn’t been, even when he has been pitching better. He rarely gets beyond the sixth.
194 and 193 IP over two seasons isn’t too bad at all, look at what we had before he came.
The most important thing Lowe does is take the mound every fifth day. Even if he’s just going 5 1/3, that has a lot of value.
I’m surprised at how much good will Lowe earned with me for his performance during the last few months of the season. I’m optimistic he will be better this year, though obviously not amazing.
He’s a winner!
The Braves obviously overpaid but they accidentally ended up with the right guy. Look how former targets Jake Peavy and AJ Burnett turned out.
@10
good point, and at the time, i was super pissed we didnt get either.
Interesting. I’ve never thought much of his slider. If anything, I usually wish Brian would call more sinkers.
interesting observation, ryan c. at 1,
Lowe sweats so bad in July and August in home games you wonder if he is going to have a stroke.
Does anybody know if “The Glove” has been banned / approved for MLB use? That could be the thing to turn Lowe into a killer.
Yeah, sweaty Lowe is the reason I think I may watch baseball games in lo-def this season even though I finally bought an HD TV… I don’t want to see all that much detail.
I am getting really silly now. Actually, are any of those names really more ridiculous than the young lady who graduated from here last year whose parents named her “Jazzmen” [sic]?
I hope you didn’t get too many Bowdoin fans’ hopes up when you told them they were getting Thorin Oakenshield Markham.
Apparently Raven’s LOI to Ole Miss was voided because his mom forged his signature.
lol.
I think it was last week that we were discussing a 6-man bench. Look at this twist on a 6-man bench from the guys at CAC. I wish some manager out there was ballsy enough to do something like this…
http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=3449
#15
Love the names on twitter. Reminds me of Monty Python’s better ones, like “Norman St. John Polevaulter.”
White Stripes officially break up. We’ll miss you, Meg.
The immediate Twitter joke was that she was starting a band with Andrew Ridgley and Art Garfunkel.
So… I got a call from my wife a bit ago, to tell me she just found out/realized that she’s met and spoken with a certain new first base coach a few times this school year as she teaches one of his kids.
As calls from your wife that begin, “So, I’ve met this guy…” go, that one went pretty well!
NRIorama!
@19
I had just assumed they broke up years ago. Around the time Jack White started acting and playing in other bands. Their first three albums were great though, and Elephant wasn’t too bad either. Great band to check out live… if they were still together.
I did not realize KK had been taken off the 40 man.
Recruiting is just about prospects, not unlike the minor leagues. Sometimes highly ranked players do not pan out, sometimes sleeper prospects end up being indespensible.
@26, yeah, but the blue chips pan out more often than the no-names, so it never hurts to have your share.
Speaking of, what a great day for Auburn, with just the one flaw….come back, CK! The thought of him, Westerman, Dismukes, O’Reilly, Fulse, and Robinson terrorizing SEC d-lines for 3 years was a sweet one.
There is no truth to the rumor that Cyrus Kouandjio backed out of his commitment to Auburn after receiving a photo message of Nick Saban holding a gun to his brother’s head.
Clay Travis is saying that UT is about to get hammered by the NCAA.
Best VU NSD in many moons!
In his article Clay talks about how they will get the letter form the NCAA and something will come of it. He has said basically things everyone has known already. I know he used the term “major violations” but that doesn’t mean it will stick. It also doesn’t mean there will be major punishments. The letter will probably come in the next few weeks, there wouldn’t be any sort of ruling before June or July at the earliest. About to get hammered isn’t really accurate.
In other news, I hate Lane Kiffin.
Everyone hates Lane Kiffin. It’s one of the things that binds us together as a people.
ha ha ha
About to get hammered isn’t really accurate.
Well, Clay’s not winning any Pulitzers, but he’s certainly more connected than you are, and he says otherwise. I’m hopeful!
Clay is just spouting the same thing everyone knows. He really has lost a lot creditability. He says lots of things.
Don’t get too hopeful, I don’t for see Vandy beating Tennessee in football for another 10 years.
Clay Travis is a wiener.
I liked Clay until he started trying to become “the voice of the SEC fan” and then he got hooked up with Fan House and it seems like he write outrageous things to try and get attention.
There are a lot of better writers that are a lot more connected that haven’t put anything recent out about this. I expect it will start getting more press when the letter comes from the NCAA, but most of the focus will be on basketball.
I reject Clay Travis as the voice of the SEC fan. Voice of the collapsing SEC program fan, maybe.
We’re on our way back.
34—I know Clay personally, and he’s definitely got that obnoxious (fake) radio personality down to a T, but he wouldn’t break a story like this if he didn’t know. He could have a bum source, but he’s not making it up.
Also, it’s hard to take anything you “for see” too seriously.
The story doesn’t contain anything that wasn’t already known, except that David Reeves might get a slap on the hand from the NCAA. It isn’t like Clay broke any news.
He added to his story in a radio spot. Also, the urgency — that it’s happening soon — is new.
There is going to be a letter coming from the NCAA, the thought was it would be here early January. I am thinking the letter may have come in today and that is what Clay is hitting on.
Brent Hubbs (Rivals) and Wes Rucker are the only two UT writers I read regularly. Hubbs has gone quiet and Rucker is saying the main worry is still on basketball, or at least that is what the athletic department is saying.
D-Lowe April-August, September-October.
44 – Those are the numbers, I believe, a few keen observers cited last Fall. Lowe went from throwing his slider 13-14% of the time to 33% of the time. Let’s hope he keeps throwing it.
I should add that he threw the slider at that same higher rate–1/3 of the time–during the 2007 and 2008 seasons, when he pitched more like an ace. Thanks for that link Carpool!
Happy National Signing day, or as you SEC fans call it: the first day of free agency.
Renardo Sidney is like a homeless man’s Glen Davis.
Alabama basketball has reached official “You do not want to play us” status. Amazing turnaround since the Virgin Islands debacle.
@48,
I agree. I think they are in the tournament and they are hot right as they get ready to play the Vols. Ugh
New poll.
“You do not want to play us”…esp at home
Re: Renardo Sidney
He might end up eating his way out of the NBA before he ever gets there. He could become the greatest waste of bigman talent since Dwayne Schintzius.
Re: Hoop Dogs
Looks like UGA might’ve gotten a bit of a break at the end of the Arkansas game. (TV never showed a replay, so I couldn’t quite tell if Thompkins walked or not on the last possession.)
But at this point, we’ll certainly take a road win. At least Trey finally made a big free throw.
All told, though, pretty good day for UGA.
Lane Kiffin is enough for me to forget that Petrino is still in the SEC….
Yeah, I still can’t figure out why Petrino didn’t get more interest from programs looking for a coach.
It’s like what the said about Bonds – he’s a jerk, but he’s a jerk that can hit.
Really hate to say it, but there’s no doubt he can win big at the collegiate level.
@44 – that is truly extraordinary data.
How do they compile? Is the methodology unquestionably sound?
And, if so, why the hell wasn’t McCann calling more sliders? We could have used a few more wins in DLowe’s earlier starts.
@52
Looked like he might have. I’m starting to notice a lack of “home cooking” at crunch time in some of these SEC games — almost as if the officials read the early reviews of their work….
AAG looks like he isn’t going to let a lower seed give him a tough time. That is why is one of the favorites.
@55, I think they just use the data from MLB, so it’s as good as you think MLB is.
You can get the data yourself. For example, if you want pitch data from the first inning of the August 9th Orioles game, you can grab:
http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2010/month_08/day_09/gid_2010_08_09_chamlb_balmlb_1/inning/inning_1.xml
You get stuff like
<pitch des=”Ball” id=”3″ type=”B” x=”84.98″ y=”107.07″ sv_id=”100809_190449″ start_speed=”85.7″ end_speed=”78.9″ sz_top=”3.2″ sz_bot=”1.33″ pfx_x=”5.47″ pfx_z=”9.15″ px=”0.453″ pz=”4.075″ x0=”2.153″ y0=”50.0″ z0=”6.565″ vx0=”-5.974″ vy0=”-125.541″ vz0=”-2.638″ ax=”8.73″ ay=”25.454″ az=”-17.505″ break_y=”23.8″ break_angle=”-22.7″ break_length=”5.0″ pitch_type=”CH” type_confidence=”.817″ zone=”12″ nasty=”50″ spin_dir=”149.243″ spin_rate=”1972.676″ cc=””/>
4,
You guys got a couple of really good running backs in Caffey and Clemons. Had we not gotten Crowell, I would have been very disappointed to not keep at least one of those two in state.
Les Miles quote of the day…
“This class gives us a nice balance of speed, ball skills, strength, ball size.”
So they compare ball size when evaluating recruits at LSU? interesting…
There was a thread last season in one of D Lowe’s awful starts where we were counting how many pitches he was throwing in the same spot. He or BMAC called for something like 15 straight sinkers on the outside of the plate. All were 87-89 mph with no movement. They didnt mix in any change ups or sliders. Thats one of the main reasons why he struggled all of last year. It was frustrating, but as soon as he started throwing that slider and pitching inside a little bit it became a drastic improvement. I think he’s in line for a better year next year. Props to Roger, Lowe, or BMAC for helping him change a bit.
Need big balls when trying fake field goals, I guess.
@61,
Whose fault is it for the poor early pitch selection, Lowe’s, McCann’s, or McDowell’s?
#63 – it had to be Lowe. I remember something about Roger talking to Lowe and trying to get him to change at some point. Lowe refused to change how he’d been pitching for the last few years and wanted to stick with the sinkers. I dont remember him calling off any signs either though.
Alot of local media folks are talking about the Dolphins taking Mark Ingram in the 1st round of the draft. Thoughts?
Good fit. I hate the Dolphins. Tony Nathan wore 22, didn’t he?
I believe so. With Ricky not returning, and Ronnie Brown not the back he once was, it makes sense. I really had hoped they would pick up a QB, but some of the lower tier QB’s may last till later rounds. The buzz is they may take Christian Ponder, if Jake Locker is no longer on the board.
here is where Lowe asked for help
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/sep/13/lowe-fans-12-braves-blank-nationals/
#66
Bob Baumhower & Don McNeal were pretty good Bama Dolphins, too.
#56
It’s weird. In some of the games I’ve seen, the refs have swallowed the whistle on some fairly obvious calls in the last few seconds.
Good thing for the Dogs last night because they did their best to blow a 6-point lead with 2 minutes left. They didn’t score for 4 straight possessions & lost their will to stop the Arkansas backcourt when they drove to the hoop. If that game went to OT, I didn’t like our chances. We’d really quit defending.
#59
If Crowell is as good as advertised, he’s a job-saving signing. Hard to really tell from the highlights, of course. I mean, Caleb King looked unstoppable, too. Let’s just hope he shows a little more dedication to the program (and himself).
The guy who did look amazing from his highlight reel was Ray Drew, this super-quick DE from Thomas County.
55,
I’m pretty sure the pitch f/x data from that tool is taken directly from the MLB gameday database.
The pitch types are classified via algorithm I believe, so it’s almost certainly not 100% correct. Though Lowe’s pitches aren’t really that tough to classify. Some pitchers, especially pitchers that throw a lot of cutters or just throw the kitchen sink at you, are close to impossible to classify with an algorithm.
Gotta agree with csg that it’s Lowe’s fault. Pitching coaches design a game plan, catchers throw down the signs, it’s up to the pitcher to nod yes and throw what was called. Not that BMac and Roger are completely off the hook, but the responsibility is ultimately on Derek.
Actually, the greatest Crimson Dolphin of them all was Dwight Stephenson. I still hate the Dolphins.
The “Les Miles Quote of the Day” is one of the funniest things I’ve seen in awhile.
Btw, Mac has been en fuego lately, hasn’t he. Must be getting close to Spring Training.
Peanut has a new piece up saying that there’s going to be “fierce competition” for the 5th starter spot between 3 guys: Minor, Beachy, and Lopez. This proves one of 2 things:
1. Peanut is an idiot.
2. Peanut is the mouthpiece of the organization, and therefore speaking like an idiot to make Rodrigo Lopez feel all warm and fuzzy inside thinking he actually has a shot at the 5th starter spot.
fangraphs has something insteresting to say about Lopez, Im skeptical, but dont mind a little competition for the spot.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/rodrigo-lopez-better-than-you-think/
@60
csg, where did you get that quote? some of my LSU friends are in denial about how dumb Les actually is.
God, I’d love a vacation in Egypt right now.
ryanc, here you go sir.
http://forum.gatorsports.com/viewtopic.php?t=9301&p=149189
they’ve also been playing it on Jox radio all morning
#71
Speaking of bad sports double-entendres…
Funniest one I ever read was about Dwight Stephenson, in SI, back in the ’80s. I think it was from Paul Zimmerman (an NFL writer I really loved & really miss).
He was doing his “all-Dr. Z team” and he wrote (I swear): “Dwight Stephenson has given the Dolphins that muscle up the middle that Don Shula so dearly loves.”
I remember almost spitting up my coffee.
ryan c,
Peanut is no longer the mouthpiece of the team. DOB has taken that role.
I bet Beachy pushes Minor some.
So Pettite retires. Does Lowe now become a target for the Yankees? Are the Braves that inclined to move him at this point?
@79
well, he’s just dumb then.
I wouldnt pay much of DLowe’s salary at this point just to move him. I would next year when Teheran/Delgado/Medlen are all available options. You could hope that he bounces back along with Jair and have some great trade pieces around the all star break too.
1. Hanson 2. Hudson 3. Jurrjens 4. Lowe 5. Minor 6. Beachy 7. Medlen 8. Delgado 9. Vizcaino 10. Teheran
yup, i think it’s safe to say that we might have a few pieces to trade around all-star break or next offseason.
Lowe and McLouth for Garder and someone else? Would the Yanks do that?
Can’t see that, no.
I see them getting relative scrapheap folks (like Freddie Garcia) or straight mid-season salary dumps.
If I’m the Yankees, I’d keep an eye on Johan Santana’s comeback.
If it’s the Yankees, I’m not paying them a dime of Lowe’s money. They’re paying a statue $15 million in 3 or 4 years.
I’ve become a DLowe fan and would hate to lose him. But if we can package him and McLouth, ya gotta do it.
Why all the Dolphin hate, Mac?
@85, why would the Mets look to move one of their few good players? They ain’t that broke.
/besides, I thought the Yanks going to look at Millwood – I guess they can afford both though.
I don’t think they would either, but I am not sure who else we would want that we could afford. So I guess we keep him.
Same reason I hate the Jets. When I was a kid, the NFL games were on NBC (AFC) and CBS (NFC) and the CBS affiliate in Birmingham was channel 42 (still is) and the signal was lousy. So really the AFC games were what you got. Which for me was a constant parade of Don Criqui and Bob Trumpy covering the seemingly nine Jets-Dolphins games a year. One or the other was always on.
If we could move Lowe and get a fair return, it would be a chance worth taking. We could let the young pitchers develop and might be no worse off in 2011. Given their development and the absence of Lowe’s salary, we might be much better in 2012….
@90 — I am a Braves fan largely because they were always on.
@92, although I was a Braves fan before my family got cable, which gave me access to TBS, it’s pretty reasonable to think that the ability to watch nearly every game for a number of years dramatically strengthened my passion for the team.
I might not be a Braves fan because they were always on, but I’m probably as much of a Braves fan as I am because they were always on.
I mean, I’m not a Cubs fan, and they were always on, too.
The Wilpon/Katz Mets might really be that financially stressed.
Aside from the Madoff-related lawsuit, the details of which remain under seal (requested by Wilpon/Katz), there’s also the matter of a borrowed $450 M from last year to repay investors of SNY, their sports channel. The idea being that they have been re-financing an ongoing debt. According to reports, they had to put up more personal collateral than they wanted.
The other day Alderson made it sound like they could be interested in shedding salary. Also, they’ve been entertaining offers for Beltran. (The Angels were interested, but determined he wasn’t healthy enough to play CF, so they went for Wells instead.)
The attendance at Citi Field was off dramatically last year & they expect it to be off again this year, despite lowering ticket prices in some sections. As the 2010 season quickly went down the drain, so did TV ratings (and ad bucks for 2011).
Wilpon/Katz are seeking an infusion of cash (20- to 25% stake in the club), and that’s apparently been going on for a year now. If that’s true, going public with it now makes it seem as if they need that strategic partner’s cash sooner than later.
They certainly appear to have genuine money troubles & it’s very possible that they’re just trying to retain ownership of the team, not so much field a winning ballclub in 2011.
Good, so those effigies I burned are working.
So Lastings Milledge signed with the White Sox. I can’t wait to see the fallout on Ozzie Guillen’s son’s Twitter feed.
If the most you can expect from Beachy or Minor is say 150 innings, maybe it is smart to see what Lopez can do, pamper them in Gwinnett and bring them up in mid season. If it keeps them under control for extra year, so much the better. Lopez and/or Lowe could bring something big then from contender/pretender in need of pitching.
Did I dream this? I thought I saw a brief crawl that MLK III was interested in buying a portion of the Mets.
But I haven’t heard anything about it since.
Rosenthal says that there are still some Japanese teams interested in Kawakami and that they’re willing to pay more than 1/2 of his remaining salary, however the Braves will get nothing in return.
“This class gives us a nice balance of speed, ball skills, strength, ball size.”
If ball size matters, then why don’t they put it on the scoreboard?
93 — True. Dale Murphy is the main reason I’m a Braves fan. The fact that he was on tv everyday really made a difference, though.
By the way, it’s been Peter Hjort day over at SweetSpot. Nice work, man. I hope you get to do much more of it!
102 — I meant to mention that at lunch as well. Kudos, Peter.
Yes, MLK III is thinking about bidding on a piece of the Mets. So I immediately tweeted that “I have a dream… and a lot of money to burn,” and “I’ve been to the mountaintop, but not since 1986”. I may be a bad person.
If Peter gets that gig I’ll have to re-bookmark the SweetSpot (that’s what she said). Nice work!
Fangraphs interviewed Dave Magadan, the Red Sox hitting coach. Loved the answer to this question:
“10) Tim McCarver proposed on a telecast from last season the idea of teams employing two hitting coaches, one for left-handed hitters and one for right-handed hitters. How do you feel about this idea?
DM Ridiculous. I’m capable of breaking down a righthanders swing as well as a lefthanders swing. That’s like saying you need two pitching coaches for lefties and righties, or two infield coaches for lefty throwers and righty throwers.”
need some help. Gotta 2006 Mazda6 that we are about to sell. Mazda’s full size car just isnt very family friendly, great car just need something bigger. Anyone here got an 08 Camry, Altima, or Accord? Just wondering if you got any feedback on any of those.
I have an ’05 Altima and I love it, if that helps at all.
Good for DeSean Jackson
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Video-DeSean-Jackson-s-emotional-surprise-visi?urn=nfl-316576
csg,
You can never go wrong with a Honda.
83- This is the main reason why I cannot understand for the life of me why anybody wants to hold onto Lowe. Ship him out and free up the money (any money) whenever it’s possible, now, in season, whenever. A straight salary dump is fine with me. I understand he takes the ball when called upon, and I understand the value in those innings, but as I’ve said numerous times this offseason, those innings are easily, and I mean easily replaceable with what is on hand within the organization.
It’s also the main reason why I’m not too worried about the potential CF or LF (if Chipper can’t play) holes in the lineup this year or next. JJ or whatever prospects ought to be able to get something worthwhile via trade to fill those holes if needed.
Lowe’s innings are easily replaceable the funds can certainly be better allocated this year or next.
@110
Couldn’t of said it better. The part that has me scratching my head is that with the status of their rotation, the Yanks seem to be a perfect fit.
Would Wren pull the trigger on a straight up salary dump of Lowe’s contract if he could? I get the impression no, (based simply on a gut feeling) but am curious what everyone here thinks.
Ethan, I don’t think Wren would pull the trigger on a straight salary dump and that’s what baffles me. The only ‘value’ that I think Wren sees in Lowe is some combination of his ‘postseason/big game pitcher’ reputation and the insurance he provides in a worst case scenario of 2 of Hudson/Hanson/JJ getting injured. Either that or he simply thinks Lowe is going to pitch better in his age 38 & 39 seasons than he did in the first two years of his four year deal, which is even more baffling to me. I’d like to see some examples throughout baseball history where that has happened.
In ’11, let’s assume Minor has a rotation spot. I can’t be convinced that there would be much of a dropoff performance wise (if any at all) from Lowe to:
Beachy
Lopez
KK (even though we know he’s not really an option)
2nd half Medlen
2nd half Teheran/Delgado/whatever prospect already in the system
That’s not even accounting for the $$$ saved that if everything else fails could be reallocated via trade for a pitcher.
I can see a big difference — like I mentioned above, Lowe goes out every fifth day and gives you five or six innings. And you can’t rely upon any of those guys to do that. Two of the last three seasons, the Braves essentially ran out of pitching in September. If you trade Lowe now, you greatly increase the chance of that happening again.
Mac, what’s the difference between the likelihood that a 38 or 39 year old starting pitcher can still provide those innings and the likelihood that the other options can’t ? It’s simply not worth $15MM a year in savings for the next two years when the money saved could fill bigger potential holes.
What $10-15 million? Next year, sure, but getting rid of him now won’t do anything for this year unless you get a player back. They aren’t going to sign anyone, not that there’s anyone of real quality left to sign who can play center, the only potentially open spot on the field. Age is important, in the long term. In the short term, the most important thing to know about a pitcher going forward is how he has pitched recently. Lowe was okay last year; the odds are he will be okay this year.
Moreover, you put a lot of stress on a bullpen built around a rookie, a second-year guy, and a guy whose arm is held on by scotch tape and chewing gum. A baseball team is a system; this team is built upon having at least three starting pitchers (Lowe, Hudson, and Hanson) who will go out there and pitch and usually get about six innings. You take that out and go with another rookie, together with Minor and with Jurrjens, who had two separate crippling injuries last year. Again, I’ll remind you of what happened a couple of years ago when Hudson got hurt; suddenly, the Braves had only two reliable starters (Jurrjens and Campillo). The starting pitching, already troublesome, fell apart, and the bullpen, which had been great, did likewise. 200 innings is hard to replace. That’s the whole reason why the Yankees might want Lowe.
On point, Mac
Mac, you’re ignoring the availability of picking up anybody during the ’11 season if it needs to be done. Any one of Chipper not being healthy, Gonzalez completely sucking, Freeman completely sucking, McLouth or Schafer completely sucking is going to require somebody to be added, almost certainly from outside the organization, which is going to cost money.
$30 million over the next two years can be better used to patch one of the aforementioned offensive holes, or even reused for the bullpen if it’s needed.
So what you’re basically doing is weakening the team now and making a systems collapse more likely just in case something happens (admittedly, something fairly likely in the Chipper and CF situations) down the road? Hell, if you could just get the Yankees to take KK’s money off our hands, that would be enough for a 2/3 month rental.
IF you could get Gardner — which is unlikely — I’d trade Lowe. I wouldn’t trade him just for salary relief.
Last offseason anybody, and I mean anybody could have had Lowe if they simply would have taken his 3/45 contract off the Braves hands, what’s so different this offseason ?
Give me the $30 million to use during the season this year and next. This organization has a lot more pitching depth than it does SS/3B/LF/CF depth.
That’s the thing about long contracts. At the end of the deal, if the player is still useful, they’re actually pretty valuable.
Fangraphs has Lowe’s value the last two years at $11.7MM and $10.9MM. He’s not outperforming his contract. If you could tell me that Lowe would be worth the $30 million the next two years, I would agree with you. I don’t think he’s going to be worth more than $20 million the next two years.
I’d still do it. I doubt Lowe’s trade value will ever be higher. He’ll be 38, and his margin of error is razor thin. All it would take would be losing 1-2 MPH off his fastball for him to be all but useless. Remember, we couldn’t give him away last year.
I agree it’s a relative risk in the short term, but long term it’s a no-brainer. Also, as jj3bagger points out, the chance at injury/suckiness is at least as likely at multiple other positions, and we don’t have nearly the depth anywhere else as we do with the rotation. This would at least give us the financial flexibility to make a move, or worst case, have some extra cash to spend in one of the deepest drafts in memory.
Well, I would take those fangraph values as more useful comparatively than absolutely, but let’s set that aside for the moment. There is typically an opportunity cost involved in acquiring a 10M/yr talent, either through draft picks or traded players that probably gets Lowe to par value, assuming he got over the 20M mark in aggregate.
Ethan brings up a point that I hadn’t considered before, but now may be the only time you can conceivably move him. If he regresses at all this year versus his last two, a likely scenario in my opinion, it becomes awfully hard to move next year’s $15MM without having to eat some, if not most of the money.
The other possible scenario is next year you have 6 or 7 better rotation options, also likely if Teheran, Vizcaino, and Delgado are ready to go along with Hanson, JJ, Hudson, Minor, Beachy, Medlen.
Lowe’s last two seasons ERA+ were 88 & 98. Even 38 & 39 year old Greg Maddux is not somebody you want to be paying $15MM a year for. These innings that Lowe gives you are easily replaceable in house, in my opinion.
I do agree with Mac’s point that a team in theory with unlimited resources like the Yankees would be interested in somebody like Lowe, but a team like the Braves can’t/shouldn’t want to afford to have a guy like Lowe taking up 17% of a $90 million payroll.
even with lowe gone, there is a surplus. make the move if you can, consequences be damned.
@124,
I don’t think there is an in house replacement nearly as good as Lowe right now, when Medlen is ready, then maybe, but not now. I know we have a bunch of young guns, but outside of Beachy and Minor, none of them are ready to pitch 32-36 major league games at the level Lowe is. I am also not sure Minor and Beachy are ready (Minor was toast by October last year)
Whether or not trading Lowe is a good idea (and I can certainly see both sides of the argument)… I’m glad our GM doesn’t seem to have the philosophy of “consequences be damned”…
And thanks to some round-about linking I just ended up on Metsblog and saw a link to Bethany’s Eephus League site… that should lower the quality of the comments for her 😀
New post.