That’s the other side of the coin. Jurrjens’ ERA went from 2.60 to 4.64, while his strikeouts and walks stayed almost exactly the same as in his two previous campaigns. So a lot of that was “luck”, balls finding holes that they didn’t before or runs getting scored “earned” instead of “unearned”. But not all of it. His homers allowed went from .6 per 9 IP to 1.0, and that was a lot of it. But still not all of it.
It’s a good idea to look at the breakdowns. Now, most pitchers are going to pitch better in wins than in losses, obviously. But Jurrjens took it to an extreme. In his seven wins, his ERA was 1.83. In six losses, it was 10.25. (In no decisions, it was 4.14.) Jurrjens oscillated between pitching as well, or better, than he ever has (his good starts included some of the best of his career) to not being able to get anyone out.
Jurrjens had a variety of injuries; a shoulder problem that popped up during offseasons workouts caused him to miss most of spring training, and he aggravated it when he tried to pitch early in the season anyway and went back on the DL. He then hurt his knee after coming back, and required surgery on a torn meniscus after the season.
Jurrjens isn’t as good as he looked in 2009 or as bad as he looked in 2010. He’s a good pitcher. He’s also about to get very expensive, and the Braves might have traded him if he’d been healthy in 2010. They might trade him this offseason, if they don’t manage to unload Lowe instead.
With Andy Pettitte’s retirement, you can’t help but think how Lowe might work into the Yankees’ plans.
But it has to be something more than a salary dump for the Braves doesn’t it?
And please, not another Melky incident.
I am expecting a big 2011 season from JJ. After a year of “rest”, I think he is ready to go. I am going to draft JJ in the coming fantasy draft.
This is where it sucks that he’s a Boras client… because I think another agent might have considered an offer (assuming the Braves made one) to lock up his Arb years at a more reasonable rate.
I just bought a ticket to a Cardinals-Braves spring training game in Jupiter on the 14th of March! Looking forward to seeing another game at Roger Dean. Anyone else checking out ST?
I like JJ, but I agree his long-term future with the Braves is murky.
So no one thinks that Jurrjens is good enough to pay to remain as a franchise corner stone?
Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, Lowe, Medlen – MLB ready. Beachy, Minor – maybe MLB ready
Teheran – as sure a thing as a pitching prospect ca be?
Vizcaino, Delgado – tnstaapp
Jair, even when healthy, isnt a good fantasy pitcher. You need guys with low whip/high K:BB
@5 Yes, I agree. I think he will have a great season and he will be traded in the next offseason.
JJ will net us our mext CF and/or short stop.
Re Lowe, I agree with Mac. Trying to save money now is pointless because there is no one out there and the team has already been constructed within the parameters of the budget. So, the only issue for this year is whether having Lowe helps the team more than some theoretical replacement. At this point, trading him simply to dump salary makes no sense, especially since there’s no guarantee that Wren could actually spend the money productively anyway. Yes, it’s possible that, come July, someone might be on the market that would be worth using the money for, but there is no guarantee of that and if you run out of pitching before then due to injuries or something, what have you accomplished? I’m not crazy about Lowe, but he does bring some value, even if not as much as his salary. If you could trade him for some value, that’s a different story.
Re teams on TV: When I was a kid in Chattanooga, the Falcons were an expansion team, which in those days meant they were really dreadful. Apparently, a lot of people complained about them being the local team on CBS, so we started getting a lot of Baltimore Colt games, during the Johnny Unitas era and I became a huge Colts fan for several years. Meanwhile, no one I knew was ever a Falcons fan.
I would trade Lowe for nothing, if the Braves could dump that salary. It’d be worth a short-term loss of production (which I’m not convinced would even occur) for the extra $30 million of flexibility. As you may have heard, we’re not short on pitching in this organization.
I think that much like TINSTAAPP, TINSTAAPS as well. If we weren’t already positioned very well to make the WC (and be reasonably able to keep up in the division) I think then you’d gamble and try and trade Lowe for the financial flexibility… you hope your young guys all work out and you’re no worse off, but if you have a hiccup it’s not season changing. BUT, because that isn’t the case I don’t think there is much value, at this point, in dumping his salary when there isn’t a way to use it just yet (sure, if there was a FA CF we really wanted but couldn’t afford then you can maybe gamble, but as it stands that doesn’t seem to be out there).
If you’re writing off ’11 and just focusing on ’12, then it makes sense to get rid of his contract as he’s less likely to be useful in ’12 and the money would certainly be more useful at that point.
Freeman article from Sickels….
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/2/3/1973507/prospect-smackdown-brandon-belt-vs-freddie-freeman
@11,
I agree, but I think we are going to be in a possition to make a run in 2011. We might even be in a better possition in 2011 than in 2012.
11—I think it makes sense to do it, even if you’re going for it in 2011. I think Lowe’s production can be produced for a lot less than $15 million, with guys we already have.
We were supposed to be deep in pitching last year too. A reliable 100 ERA+/200ip starter is not just something you find on the side of the road. I am all for trading him, don’t get me wrong, but I think there is some undervaluation of what Lowe provides and it’s replaceability.
Whoever posted the Sleepy LaBeef tune a while back, you have my hearty thanks. I just shared it with a couple of Japanese guys at a 50’s rock bar and they loved it.
9 – Marc, true Lowe does bring ‘some value, even if it’s not worth his salary,’ but who is that not true of ? If the Braves traded him tomorrow, somebody or more likely a group of replacements would replace the ‘value’ lost from Lowe, and it’s doubtful that group would have a negative value, this having ‘some value.’ It’s not like they would go with a four man rotation if Lowe were traded.
To me, JJ and Lowe are tied together this year and next. The ’11 and ’12 Braves probably want to have one of the two around for insurance but likely don’t want or need or potentially won’t be able to afford payroll wise (especially next year) to have both around as rotation insurance.
As Mac mentions in JJ’s writeup regardless of how JJ pitches this year, his pricetag is going to be higher next year, which factors into both his salary from a Braves standpoint, or his value as an asset if he’s going to be traded for the next CF or SS as Smitty says. If I’m going to choose to keep one around for insurance this year and next I’d rather pay an age 26 JJ his arb bump due in ’12 from the $3.25MM he’s making this year, than a 39 year old Lowe $15MM.
This is another other reason why I’d advocate dumping Lowe now because this may actually be a chance to choose to do this versus being forced to trade JJ at the end of the season because Lowe is too expensive and they don’t have the money in ’12 to keep both.
Melky.
And you thought I was going to say Francoeur.
@16, which one was it? He’s a fave of mine, but just for the 50’s sides (which are spectacular).
Savage cover of Let’s Play House – incredible slap-bass playing.
16—I don’t think I’m undervaluing it. I’m not posting several-paragraph analysis, so that may not come across, but I don’t disagree that Lowe is very valuable. I just think $30 million over the next two years is more valuable, and if there’s anywhere we can afford to just dump a guy, it’s the starting rotation.
To me, JJ’s ’11 performance is one of the most important storylines for the Braves as an organization. If he pitches well, he becomes a intriguing tradeable asset that could be used to fill potential needs for future teams and if he doesn’t pitch well, he still becomes more expensive next year. Also if he doesn’t pitch well or is injured this year, the options become : 1) Paying him his ’12 arb bump and keeping him 2) Trading him when his trade value isn’t likely to be high or 3) Non-tendering him and getting nothing in a worst case scenario.
What’s great about Mac @19 is that my page had it loaded just to the end of the quote and not his response… and I thought “he’s going to say Francoeur… no wait, he’s going to say Melky” and then I scrolled down. Fantastic.
21 — I understand your point and am not against it, but I would be nervous breaking in 2 rookies into the rotation while trying to make another playoff push.
You’re forgetting about Rodrigo Lopez!
It would also be nice if the organization were willing to let KK pitch … but, I know that’s a pipe dream.
The difference between 2011 and 2010 is that Delgado and Teheran could be viable options by year’s end. Counting on rookies to fill multiple rotation spots is risky, but counting on a redundancy of very good rookies to fill limited rotation spots is less risky, plus we should have a Medlen infusion at some point. 2011 pitching surplus > 2010 pitching surplus.
And if there’s nothing you want to spend Lowe’s money on in the FA market this year, then offer to pay more of his salary to whichever team wants him in exchange for some actually valuable player in return. There are agents other than free agents.
Problems for the Mets.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/two-ny-mets-owners-benefited-from-madoff-scam-wsj-2011-02-04-1241390
26 – Exactly my point from last post, options to replace Lowe both this year and next are legitimately available in house and cheaper.
If the ’12 Braves are stuck with a declining 39 year old Lowe at $15MM and an ineffective or injured JJ then that does majorly impact the ’12/’13/’14 Braves as well. If outside the organization players are needed for SS and CF and possibly LF as soon as ’12, the money that would have to be paid to Lowe and JJ certainly is going to be a factor.
If the Braves believe that Lowe can be effectively replaced, I’m sure they’d listen to offers. But I can’t see the Yankees offering Gardner in return. And they’re out of Melkys.
#27
According to the newly unsealed suit, Wilpon/Katz were warned repeatedly by other fund managers (and as far back as 2002) that Madoff’s scheme was probably not legit—but they were in too deep with him (and the money was too good) that they couldn’t or wouldn’t extricate themselves from Madoff.
The suit says that over the years Wilpon/Katz found ways to exploit the returns & ended up with hundreds of millions in bogus profits.
Wilpon/Katz deny they knew about the Ponzi scheme or that their fortunes were closely tied with Madoff.
@25
Haven’t we seen enough of KK yet? Admittedly, he was treated less than fairly last year, but that doesn’t mean I want to see him pitch for us ever again. The backlash from locking him in a closet for half the year has caused people to actually massively underrate how awful he was. He was not OK. He was not mediocre. He sucked.
Also, there’s nothing that says we can’t trade Lowe midseason and then trade for something else with the cash that’s freed up. Also, by that point, Medlen will be closer to back and Minor will have had half a year under his belt.
I think the Mets should bring back Francouer to run the team. He couldn’t do any worse than the Wilpons.
Yeah, the problem with dealing Lowe to the Yankees is that any money you try to throw in with which to buy some useful player in return is going to mean a lot less to them than it would to a poorer team. Buying Gardner from the Padres might cost 7mill, but it might cost 20mil to get him from the Yankees.
Also, it seems like we’re playing the odds that either Lowe or Jurrjens (if not both) will have a good year this year and will get good value in a trade next offseason. And while it’s certainly possible that neither of them will, it seems likely that one of them will, based on past performance.
Haven’t we seen enough of KK yet? Admittedly, he was treated less than fairly last year, but that doesn’t mean I want to see him pitch for us ever again. The backlash from locking him in a closet for half the year has caused people to actually massively underrate how awful he was. He was not OK. He was not mediocre. He sucked.
No, you badly overstate how bad his performance was. But, there’s no point in rehashing all of that stuff, since he won’t be here and folks like you can’t be convinced, anyway.
34 – Other than Lowe’s September and October from last season, DLowe’s results in a Braves uniform haven’t been much different from KK in ’09 or Rodrigo Lopez from ’10 for that matter and they have been a lot more expensive. Let me be clear that I’m not advocating either of those options as a single replacement for Lowe.
No, you badly overstate how bad his performance was.
No, this badly overstates how bad his performance was: KAWWKAIMMI WAS TEH WRST BRAVES PITCHER EVER. 10 X WORSE THAN OMG ALBIE LOPEZ.
(By the way, Kawakami’s rate stats are similar to Lowe’s, but Lowe has been better at the all-important art of inning eating. In a Braves uniform, Kawakami has pitched 228 innings in 41 starts, an average of 5.56 innings per start. Lowe has pitched 388 1/3 innings in 67 starts, an average of 5.80 innings per start. No, it’s not good, but it’s better.)
KK was just not a winner
Ha ha ha
You guys are so dumb. If Kawakami didn’t suck then why didn’t he ever win any games? Huh?
Right, Nick?
If wins are so important, why don’t they show it on the scoreboard?
See, this is why I went ahead and posted the Francoeur thing instead of waiting two months. By April 1, the Mets will probably have been seized by the SEC or something.
The Southeastern Conference wants to run the Mets? I know the SEC is ambitious but . . .
Yeah, either SEC. Mike Slive is powerful.
I guess the Mets would be in the SEC East?
Vanderbilt will transition to the National League.
Well, it is the weaker league.
Cardinals sign Jim Edmonds to a minor-league deal. Time to fire up the Rasmus speculation engine again!
Rasmus and 12 cases of Budweiser for Lowe and some HGH for Big Mac!
Get it done Wren!
Well I can assure you Auburn isn’t a part of this. They are at max payroll after Wednesday.
Anybody out there a pharmacologist?
What replaced andro at your local GNC?
Also, what happened to all the “Girls Gone Wild” infomercials?
Lopez and KK may be showcased at ST. KK for a deal and Lopez to see if he can pitch and keep Minor & Beachy in AAA for a while. If Lowe pitches in April & May like he did in Sept/Oct he will be great trade bait & Beachy & Minor will get seasoning.
Is there any way that the news about Edmonds will make it more likely that the Pirates trade us McCutchen?
Get it done, Wren.
The more and more I think about it, JJ having a good and healthy ’11 may be the single most important ’11 storyline for the organization.
If he pitches well and is put on the trade market after the season, he really should be able to fetch a nice haul in return for the ’12 club and future years. In ’12, JJ would be put on the market at 26 and two years of arb control, if I have my numbers correct. If he has a good and healthy ’11, who would be a good trade comp that has been put on the market lately ? I’m not sure what the return would be in comparison to the returns for guys like Garza, Marcum, or Greinke this offseason, but it should be something that could fill a much needed (and likely) position player hole.
JJ’s ’11 performance becomes even more important if Lowe regresses at all.
The guy from Girls Gone Wild has been indicted on federal charges, I cant recall for what though.
Also, there have been a number of new supplements to replace HGH, I’m not sure what they are, but I have a few juiced friends and they are constantly ordering crap off the internet from Mexico.
Joe Francis is one of the worse human beings around, and I’m glad he’s been indicted. I hope he serves every second of the time he owes to society.
Spike,
That’s the one. That tune rocks.
There’s only a handful, but they are terrific.
If everyone in the SEC finishes .500, does anyone go to the Tournament?
————-
I think we hang on to DLowe until we see how the season (and Chipper and JJ) is (are) progressing.
If the RedSox start hot and the Yankees do not they will squeal like a pig for pitching. If the Braves’ staff looks strong, that’s the time to take advantage of the Yankees.
—————
McCutchen, McCutchen, my kingdom for McCutchen.
Fantasy time:
So if Chipper comes off the books next year and we manage to trade DLowe, is that enough to sign Albert?
PooHoles will never come here. He’ll either stay in STL or go to the Yankmees or somewhere else where he can be in the limelight.
@59
Adding to what’s there already for 2012, that’d give about 36 million to work with…that’s some fun rosterbation you got on your hands there….here goes nothing:
josh willingham: 3/30 million
cody ross: 2/18 million
omar infante:3/15 million
jose reyes: 4/48 million
lineup:
reyes-SS
prado-3b
heyward-rf
uggla-2b
bmac-c
willingham-lf
freeman-1b
ross-cf
rotation: hanson, hudson, teheran, delgado, minor
bullpen: medlen, kimbrel, venters, marek, beachy, o’flaherty, gearrin
bench: young, infante, ross, lucas, conrad
notable trade: jurrjens for OF prospect
@58,
Yes, there is an automatic qualifier. I think Kentucky, Tennessee, UGA, Vandy, Florida and Bama are headed to the tournament. I still don’t have an idea who the best team is yet.
I wouldn’t sleep on Carolina or Ole Miss either. I think both of those teams could make a conference tournament run. Probably not, but you never know.
Kentucky, Tennessee, Vandy and Florida can play with anyone in the country.
Bama and UT play today, Tennessee is without Hopson though, so it will be tough.
Infante’s a bench player; we don’t need to give him a 3 year contract. And if Reyes could possibly be had for $48 million, that would mean his legs were so damaged that I wouldn’t want him. He’ll be looking for a much, much bigger payout.
The problem with WIllingham is that he’s always injured. He has never played more than 144 games in a season, and he has averaged 116 games a year the last three years. Great bat when healthy, but not that great, considering he only plays two-thirds of a season.
Interesting fact: Vladimir Guerrero and Andruw Jones, who were signed as amateurs at the same time, who went through the minors and battled for the status of #1 prospect at the same time, and who debuted at the same time, have a virtually identical number of WAR according to Baseball-Reference: Andruw has 59.9, and Vladi has 59.2. In other words, the two guys whose value was seen as virtually identical when they were 19 have had an almost exactly identical career value.
Both will have very interesting Hall of Fame cases, because both broke down as defensive players around the same time, but Guerrero managed to keep an effective bat for longer — though his bat was always better, so the two have probably degraded offensively by about the same degree, too.
(By Fangraphs’ WAR, Jones has been decidedly better than Guerrero: 70.5 WAR compared to 61.7 WAR. Much of the discrepancy appears to be due to replacement and positional value.)
New poll.
Re: Vlad/AJ
Forgetting for a minute the Anabolic Era in which they played, I’d guess that Vlady (career OPS+ 143) will be a pretty easy HoF choice. Wish I could say the same for Andruw (career OPS+ 111).
Re: SEC Hoops
Dawgs tried to blow it today, but hung on in OT. Luckily, while Robinson had a tough game, Jeremy Price was a beast. Gotta give Auburn some credit for coming back twice & forcing OT, but UGA got really careless, especially at the end of regulation. That was really a must-win for any future tournament hopes.
Re: Mets Madoff Mess
Another tough George Vecsey column in the NY Times.
http://tinyurl.com/4wf4lk8
A thought: The longer this goes on (and the longer Wilpon/Katz hang onto the team) the better it is for the rest of the NL East.
Of course, if they sell (and it now it appears they may have to), it seems that somebody could acquire a New York NL franchise, plus its lucrative TV network, for a relatively affordable sum.
Hard to say right now, until the suit is settled or adjudicated, but it’s been reported that the Mets have an aggregate negative book value of $225M. That’s minus $225M, due mostly to the $695M tied to the new ballpark. The club owes $40M a year in debt service and it’s tied to the bonds used to finance the new park. (They are now rated as junk bonds.)
Essentially, the moment Madoff got arrested in December 2008, the suit contends, Wilpon/Katz were saddled with immediate & considerable liquidity issues. They had over 300 accounts with Madoff—poof!—and they couldn’t pay all their debts.
Of course, if there’s a sale, it shouldn’t be a secret that a well-run NY NL franchise is a potentially scary proposition for us, unlike the father/son act that seems to have been tethered to a financial house of cards.
Much more than providing a delicious plate of schadenfreude, this lawsuit could strategically cripple the club for the near term. But, again, it could trigger the entry of a new jack to the scene, and perhaps one that actually knows how to run a baseball club.
As a Braves fan, I’d root for the Dolans, another family act, and one that somehow managed walk into MSG & muck up those 2 teams for awhile.
Re: SB XLV
I’ll go Pittsburgh, 23-20.
20-10 Pittsburgh.
Deion made it into the football hall of fame. First Falcon, I believe.
Go Packers! 27-24 Green Bay.
I saw Chad Gibbs in Hastings tonight.
#54 – different types of pro hormones are the big thing now. Hdrol and Mdrol are two of those that have hit the market. Both put ridiculous amounts of testosterone in your body. You better make sure you know what to follow them up with.
welcome to Bama Cyrus K
I’ve only caught parts of Big Ben’s SportsCenter commercial, but I’m confused. Does he run back into the sirens-blaring ESPN campus because he thinks Erin Andrews is passed out in one of the bathrooms? Nothing else makes sense.
Is Deion also the first two-sport player ever inducted into the Hall of Fame of any professional sport?
wat? Jim Thorpe.
I googled. There have been eight pro football hall of fame inductees that played Major League Baseball. Jim Thorpe, Ernie Nevers, Red Badgro, George Halas, Paddy Driscoll, Ace Parker and Greasy Neale. Source: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110204&content_id=16568972
It’s hard to forget Thorpe, though. When I think multi-sport athletes, it’s him, then Bo.
This is a fun question, so I googled a bit more.
Dave DeBusschere is in the NBA hall of fame, and he pitched for the White Sox.
24-21 Pittsburgh.
31-16 Pack
27-21 Packers. First overtime Super Bowl.
Mac,
Went to the UT-Bama game yesterday. I was very impressed with how physical Bama was. They are a very good team.
Thanks, Joey. I’m obviously an idiot. I actually just read a book about Thorpe, Lars Anderson’s terrific Carlisle vs. Army, about the day in 1912 that Jim Thorpe and Dwight Eisenhower played each other in college football. Great read.
276-2 Packers.
I just can’t get into NFL the way I can NCAAF and MLB. I’ll watch tonight, but only out of a sense of duty of being a male. I’ll secretly be using it as an excuse to eat a lot of food and watch commercials.
Steelers 24-14
I can only imagine how excited Mac is to hear that Bon Jovi might become a part owner of the Falcons.
#79
Remember, if the game does go to OT, the rules are different this year.
27-14 GB
What a stud.
What are the overtime rules now?
If the first OT possession results in a FG, the other team gets a chance to match or better the result. If the first possession results in a TD, game over.
Of course, a big strategic difference is that the team with the first possession may go for a TD, instead of settling for a sudden-death FG.
BTW, caught “The King’s Speech” last night. Really outstanding flick.
24-17 Packers
#89 I concur, an excellent movie.
Packers because Aaron Rogers has class.
I really liked The King’s Speech too. The same director made an even better movie, in my opinion: The Damned United, about the brilliant and difficult ’70s British football manager Brian Clough. I don’t care about soccer at all, but I absolutely loved the movie. The Sports Guy named it one of the best recent sports movies, and I think he’s totally right.
What was UK movie that Fever Pitch was based on? Sox screw it up by winning WS.
It’s also “Fever Pitch” and it was a book first.
DUH. with award winning Colin Firth
I don’t even LIKE hip-hop and I find the Black Eyed Peas disgusting and despicable.
Why are people cheering the halftime show?
I like BEP, but this is awful. Did nobody do a sound check or anything?
Also Usher got stuck in his harness. Lol.
Who cares about the running game. Let’s keep throwing!!!
Amazing Aaron Rodgers.
Wait until you see his brother!
New post.