Philly Phun game thread: May 8, Braves at Phillies

Weren’t we just here?

Hibernation Mode, illustrated… I don’t know if that’s a normal distribution or not. I would guess not. The Braves are worse in high-leverage situations than in medium-leverage, which probably is normal, since the best pitchers pitch more in high-leverage situations. But I’m guessing that it’s not normal to be worse, far worse, in low-leverage situations (when the Klinger Parrs of the world pitch) than in high-leverage situations. Last year, they were basically the same in all three situations, a little better in low-leverage.

A lot of this is probably just the Braves hitting much better in the early innings. Maybe they need a nap during the game or something. A nap would explain Anderson’s defense… BTW, I keep going back and forth, but I think his nickname should be ACHE, which stands for Anderson, Cleanup Hitter Extraordinaire.

71 thoughts on “Philly Phun game thread: May 8, Braves at Phillies”

  1. 2009 Plus/Minus are now being posted on Bill James Online. I don’t think they will mind if I post a few. I certainly won’t do it with regularity. It’s only $3 a month so get a subscription.

    Note, these are runs saved above average

    Jeffy: -1
    Schafer: -1
    Kelly: -1
    Chipper: -4

  2. If I managed Cannibal Corpse, I’d have them cover “Afternoon Delight.”

    Hope they keep us winning, though…

  3. Chipper cost his team 4 more runs than the average third baseman would have made on the plays he saw.

    Jeff, Kelly, and Schaefer all were one run below average on defense.

  4. Last season, Escobar spent most of the year rated as the top shortstop in the majors, before he got hurt and missed time. KJ and both first basemen (Douche and Kotchman) were in the top ten, and Chipper was most of the year before he got hurt. And yet, the pitching has been a lot better this year so far.

  5. I think the most explicit Hibernation mode stat is listed just down the page: OPS vs. RP: .606

    Or look at the OPS by Inning:

    1: .843
    2: .825
    3: .787
    4: .884
    5: .793

    and then…

    6: .589
    7: .727
    8: .673
    9: .494

  6. I recall George Lindsey’s paper on the subject of scoring by inning found scoring was typically highest in the first inning and then was pretty much random after that. Though, it’s been a while since I read through it.

  7. Poor Kelly. You can’t bust a slump if you’re not playing, Bobby. Thanks.

    1. Infante, 2B
    2. Escobar, SS
    3. Chipper, 3B
    4. ACHE, LF
    5. McCann, C
    6. Francoeur, RF
    7. Kotchman, 1B
    8. Schafer, CF
    9. Reyes, LHP

  8. JC, clearly, you know more about Plus/Minus than I do, but I thought it wasn’t scaled to runs. I thought it just measured plays made or not made by a particular fielder, compared to what the average fielder would get.

  9. I’ve only read summaries, but my understanding was that it was highest in the first, and lowest in the second, and basically random after that. The idea being that a lot of second innings are led off by low-average (and hence low-OBP) power (and hence, slow) hitters.

  10. My favorite nickname for Anderson is Thumper. It’s not good when your clean up hitter is a character from Bambi.

  11. Reyes has pitched ok his last few starts but pitching him in Philly’s bandbox could be ugly.

  12. Why is ACHE even playing with the LH Hamels starting? Not that Diaz has been anything special.

  13. He’s no good and he said “no” to rehab. I’m not sure a more perfect nickname—for anyone—is even possible. As good as most of the suggestions are, “Amy” wins in a landslide.

  14. Alex R.,
    You are correct. The +/- stats are how many plays above or below average a player makes. If you’re looking for a run-based metric try FRAA (fielding runs above average), UZR translations, or enhanced +/- translations.

  15. Diaz is a great, not good, great hitter against lefties and a plus leftfielder so Grandpa Anderson gets the start against Hamels?

    Bobby has completely lost his mind. His perception of reality is scaring me. He’s starting to remind me of Al Davis.

    “Afternoon Delight” by Cannibal Corpse – I giggled hysterically which means I have to become Catholic so that I can go to confession to get my soul back.

  16. Hey, can Ross play 3B?

    Or better yet – can McCann play 1B?

    I’d love to get them both in the lineup and I think I think Ross is a better receiver than McCann. The more I see of Ross, the better that signing looks.

  17. The raw +/- is denominated in plays, but they now provide the runs translation which is what I reported.

  18. I find it odd that Johnson has a higher OBP than Francoeur and an OPS near the same and yet Johnson hasn’t started in something like eight of the past twelve games and Francoeur hasn’t missed a start.

  19. Hibernation mode be damned! Let’s kick some Philly arse!

    Come on Braves…let’s win 3 in a row.

  20. Rufino, it generally takes about 10 runs added or subtracted from any source to be worth a game won or lost.

  21. Mr. Escobar and Mr. Reyes have illustrated the Minus part of Plus/Minus.

  22. Smoltz was the king of that situation.

    He’d just throw it into the runner’s back.

  23. JoJo sucks big time. I am honestly through with the kid. Whatever “makeup” the Braves have been talking about, he has been showing none of that.

  24. Yup, hit them in the back and they are out on that play.
    crap call and crap plays and just like that this game is toast.

  25. C’mon, guys. Jo-Jo was fine against St. Louis two starts ago (1 R, 1 BB, 7 K in 7 IP).

  26. Once again, we can’t score from first on a two-out double.

    Morning recap. I have to go to boring commencement tomorrow. I don’t think that the students realize how boring it is to see the same damned thing every year.

  27. Don’t know about you guys, but I felt so much better when I remembered McCann was up next.

  28. But those are “unearned” runs…

    Doesn’t that mean that they don’t count and that JoJo is really good?

  29. One excellent start against over a dozen hideous ones … ugh. Reyes just doesn’t have it. Time to move on … or bump him to middle relief and see if he can contribute there.

  30. Yeah, whoever said we should make him a LOOGY was probably on the right track. He’d be our fourth or fifth starter in Gwinnett, anyway.

  31. Roger McDowell should’ve gone to the mound before Reyes pitched to Hamels with bases loaded, 0-0.

    Or maybe even when he went 2-0 to Chris Coste the first time around, with runners on 1st and 2nd.

    Man, I don’t care how offensive of a park it is…they let this one get away from us in a hurry.

    JoJo, where’s the mojo?

  32. Okay, nevermind…JoJo ain’t bringing anything tonight anyway.

    Let’s see if he can save the pen and go another inning or two.

    Game over.

  33. another brilliant nugget of thought from the chief.

    reyes, unlike other braves pitchers, has been given ample opportunity to prove his worth. i would bet it’s hanson time next week. MMM BOP, anyone?

  34. One more start from the #5 spot and we’re past 42 days on the season. Then I think we may see Hanson and maybe Medlin into the pen too.

    I like the idea of three long men in Medlin, Carlyle and Campillo, a LOOGY and Moylan, Soriano and Gonzalez. Not least because I actually like those pitchers and don’t feel the imminent doom I do with guys like Bennett.

    A little snippet from the Baseball America Hot Sheet about Hanson:
    “His numbers this year—48 strikeouts and 11 walks in 32 2/3 innings—look remarkably similar to another pitching prospect who breezed though Triple-A in 2007 with 46 strikeouts and 11 walks in 31 innings: Tim Lincecum.”

  35. Glad I missed this one. Instead I saw the Rome Braves beat Lexington 4-0; Spruill went 8, gave up 3 hits, and struck out 7. I don’t think there were more than 2 hard hit balls off him all night.

  36. Loved Chipper’s reaction to the on-the-field fan.

    Bobby Cox. And Joe Simpson. Not amused.

  37. At least Chipper Jones doesn’t have a corn cob rammed up his rectum like Bobby and Joe. It’s funny to everyone, really. I love a drunk fan leading a hundred Rent-A-Cops on a wild goose chase through the outfield.

  38. what was Chippers reaction?

    I’m starting to think the Braves like Medlen as a starter. His numbers are ridiculous at AAA. Dont know if he’ll just be another Reyes or not, but seems like he should be a starter.

    Jo Jo, Vasquez, and KK – the three worst pitchers to face the phils in this ball park. We need to score 10 at least in every game to have a chance.

  39. Chipper was laughing pretty hard. It happened as he got a walk. He was laughing…taking off his helmet…and taking a knee.

    To be honest, I was kinda surprised by his reaction.

    It reminded me of one of my favorite Braves moments: when Chipper approached the mound and surprised Bob Wickman…LOL…now that was funny. Chipper couldn’t get it back together that inning.

  40. I’m beginning to agree with those that think the Braves should try Reyes as a reliever. This whole starting thing isn’t working out for him.

  41. Bad game–great poll!!…I like ACHE, but I would rather forget about him….

    Jo Jo is now walking the finest of lines–especially with both Medlen and Hanson pitching ‘lights out’ at AAA. I also hope that the Braves don’t forget Morton….

  42. csg @ 64, yeah, we should have juggled the rotation a bit here, this could be ugly.

    Ross has been excellent, to bad, DiAnderson stink so bad.

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