Atlanta agrees to terms with Japanese pitcher Kenshin Kawakami | braves.com: Official Info
No jersey picture yet, but I’ll take a press release. Reports are also that the Braves have signed Derek Lowe, but he could still change his mind and go back to the Dodgers. It’s not like that never happens.
Freakin’ awesome.
Kawakami and Lowe almost at once…pretty cool day to be a Braves’ fan….
Andruw is not a bad bet at a $500k one year salary as a backup plan, or at least if we have a backup plan in place.
The reason he’s no where near being a good bet at any cost is because of his past 2 seasons. Just because he is determined to prove himself doesn’t mean he is going to be any better at laying off breaking balls down and away. He was abysmal last year before getting hurt. He was abysmal the year before as well.
The lost weight to me shows that he’ll be improved defensively and motivated to improve offensively. He’s been in baseball a very long time and has a very exploitable weakness at the plate. The gamble you take with him is that he becomes decent as opposed to horrendous.
Decent Andruw is better than what other options we have. Horrendous Andruw is worse. By decent I mean the only hitter worse than him would be Francoeur. By horrendous I mean equal to or worse than Francoeur.Hoping for more than decent hitting from Andruw is hoping for a lot.
You’re just not going to get .260 and 40 HR out of Andruw. If you get .250 and 25 with plus defense though, you’ve got yourself a nice bargain at $500k for the back end of the batting order.
Go get Adam Dunn.
I think somebody posted a link to the picture on the last thread… but Uggghhh… http://tinyurl.com/6tks9c He says he wants to pitch more than one last year… I think he should move to Chicago for ’10, and then retire after a short season in Detroit for ’11… that way he’s got the A,B,C, and D baseball caps. Hope he wins every game he plays that’s not against the Braves. Hell, I hope he wins the AL Cy Young.
If Dunn’s asking price is above 3/36 I’d prefer to avoid him, but not if the alternative is trading prospects for someone who’s not significantly better. I wouldn’t want to go 4 years on him.
To change the subject, signing Lowe may even suggest that the Braves will have more luck with Boras and his clients in the future. Maybe JS would have gotten the deal done, but after a string of frustations, it has to be said that Wren was able to succeed with Boras and in so doing broken new ground. This may be expensive, but given the number of clients that Boras has locked up, it is probably a necessary evil.
In the simulations of the 2009 Amatuer draft–where the Braves have the #7 pick–a high percentage of top players are Boras’s clients.
I can almost forget my rage over Smotlz….
If we can get a righthanded bat, we should be competitive in 2009….
good job Wren, now lets make Lowe official.
MLBTR…we are interested in Nady and Swisher
#6 – if we have $40 mil to spend, I dont see us having enough for Dunn.
$15 – Lowe
$7-10 – Kawakami (havent heard his contract)
$11 – Vasquez
+ money for arb players + Ross + Ohman possibility??
All I ask is that the Braves field a competitive team. (If you suffered with the Braves through the ’70s and ’80s, you know what I mean.)
What I don’t understand is why the Phillies haven’t been in the hunt for more pitching?
If Dunn’s asking price is above 3/36 I’d prefer to avoid him, but not if the alternative is trading prospects for someone who’s not significantly better. I wouldn’t want to go 4 years on him.
I’d be hesitant to give him a fourth year too. I think he’s signable for three years, $12-13 mil per. He’s worth that. The only drawback to such a deal would be figuring out budget to re-sign Chipper in 2010. Of course, the Braves have a player option on Tim Hudson for 2010 and could easily drop Hudson and resign Chipper.
if we have $40 mil to spend, I dont see us having enough for Dunn
It depends on the math. If the Braves’ stated budget of $92 million is accurate they should have the room for Dunn. With Lowe (15), Kawakami (8) and Vasquez (11.5) added into my spreadsheet (and assuming insurance pays 1/3 of Hudson’s DL stint) I’ve got the current payroll just at $74 mil. That assumes my arbitration assumptions are correct, of course.
Sam, we’ll thats good news. I havent calculated anything, I was just going off the $40m number. If we are only at $74 and have $18 more to spend, go for short term deal with Dunn and Sheets.
Adam Dunn is good, but we need a right-handed bat.
And hallelujah for Lowe and Kawakami. Battousai is a decent nickname. It’s better than Kenny, which is almost certainly what Bobby will call him.
To quote Ron Burgundy, “That is good news! Super duper gang!” Lowe and Kawakami on the team, and he doesn’t seem to be done yet. And to quote Harry Dunn, referring to Wren, “Just when I thought you couldn’t possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this… and totally redeem yourself!”
You’re missing some money in your spreadsheet, Sam. As I noted in the last thread, we’ve got roughly an $89 million payroll right now, although we should be getting $5 or $6 million of that back in Hudson insurance money.
assuming assumptions are correct…very funny way to cover your ass.
I think we can afford to bring in another player at around $12mil based on my understanding of the payroll. I look at it as Stated Budget minus total commitments, rather than $40million minus offseason acquisitions to date.
I’m not sure whether Abreu has 2 decent years left in the tank, but I could live with him. I’d be pleased with 3 years to Dunn. I’d be ok with trading some pitching depth for an OF, but really I dont see the point trading for an OF who isn’t better than Dunn, unless that player comes with a 2 year deal or less.
Mr. Thomason,
Getting back to the last thread’s discussion on Hall of Fame voting. I was thinking later, that perhaps the metaphor works better to compare voters who voted for 10 guys not including Rickey, to a voter who voted for one of the “major” party candidates in the election, despite not thinking either was qualified. In other words, choosing to use their vote to attempt and affect the outcome, rather than casting it for a candidate they may prefer, but whose fate is already sealed. Then again, maybe I’m just making it murkier.
For my last attempt at this: I would agree with you that anyone not voting for someone simply to keep them from being a unanimous selection is pretty petty. However, I’m not certain that that’s the rationale being employed, and I’m quite certain that wasn’t the case in the beginnings when guys like Ruth, and Cobb weren’t unanimous, and guys like Walter Johnson got 83.6% and Tris Speaker 82.1% on his second ballot. In those cases it was simply because the ballot included so many players that the voters deemed worthy of consideration, and thus, why throw away your vote on a Ruth, or Johnson, when they were clearly shoe-ins, and you had a chance to advocate for other deserving greats that may not have had the same level of ego, and/or media attention. (I’m not as sure as the Mays/Aaron era, as I wonder if there might have been a racial element to keeping them from unanimity, though that argument wouldn’t hold for a DiMaggio, Williams, Mantle, etc.)
Today’s game is much different from yesteryear’s, and I think many voters have a different criteria for enshrinement in the Hall.
As I’ve said, if a voter is under the opinion that the Hall should be more inclusive I don’t think there is anyone here who would argue that these 6 aren’t without a doubt worthy of a vote: Rice, Mattingly, Dawson, Blyleven, McGwire, and Raines. Now, if this voter believes, as I do, that the Hall needs to include some of the finest transition-era relievers because they laid the groundwork for the reliever revolution in the ’80s, then I don’t think votes for Lee Smith or Jesse Orosco would be completely off base. That leaves us with two more spots, and with an inclusive criteria, I don’t think it is too hard to fill them with the remaining candidates: the likes of Jack Morris, Tommy John, Dave Parker, Don Mattingly, or Alan Trammell, and this is assuming you don’t want to write-in the most deserving snub of all-time, Pete Rose.
As I said, I would have voted likely for Henderson, but I can see why someone might not. If the Hall wants to setup the possibility of unanimous selections then all they have to do is limit the ballot, or increase the number of votes allowed to each writer. Removing the secrecy of the ballot would also likely increase the chances, especially in conjunction with either of the above ideas. Ultimately, I don’t really think it matters though, and I’m sure Rickey doesn’t care… well Rickey’s ego might, but he shouldn’t…
They need a bat. Handedness is secondary.
I get 70 miles to the gallon on this hog.
Brian McCann, 3.5
David Ross, 1.5
Casey Kotchman, 3.5
Kelly Johnson, 1.5
Yunel Escobar, 0.5
Chipper Jones, 10
Brandon Jones, 0.39
Gregor Blanco, 0.4
Jeff Francoeur, 2
Matt Diaz, 2
Martin Prado, 0.45
Ruben Gotay, 1
Omar Infante, 2
Derek Lowe, 15
Javier Vasquez, 11.75
Ken Kawakami, 8
Jair Jurrjens, 0.45
Jorge Campillo, 0.45
Tim Hudson (DL), 13
Mike Gonzalez, 2.5
Rafeal Soriano, 6.1
Manny Acosta, 0.4
Jeff Bennett, 0.45
Blaine Boyer, 0.45
Buddy Carlyle, 0.4
Pete Moylan (DL), 0.45
Wow, I suddently like our rotation.
Dunn at 3/36 sounds like a bargain, and I would definitely want to go four years on him. He’s kind of a pipe dream, though. I would think with our first base and outfield situations, he would be more valuable to us than almost any other club, though.
I’m excited by the idea of Swisher. He was pretty unlucky last year, and the idea of upgrading Kotchman with Swisher make me salivate. If we pull Lowe and Swisher, I’m pretty sure we make the playoffs.
#20
Add Norton to the bench.
Sam youre missing Norton and I dont remember his deal
@11: What? Are you really saying we should drop Tim Hudson so that we can sign a donkey? Dunn wouldn’t be worth dropping Campillo for, but if we were really going to go down that road we should’ve just signed him instead of Lowe.
I’d say we sign Andruw, try and get Chipper to negotiate an extension during/before Spring Training, maybe re-sign Ohman, maybe make a run at the two recent Cuban defectors, call that good, and invest any leftover money in scouting, or hold onto it to give us salary flexibility if we are actually still competing come June-July. If Andruw doesn’t pan out we can always find a steal of a deal for another OFer on the tail-end of a contract to fill out the year before the stable of youngsters are ready in 2010.
we dont lose any picks for Lowe do we?
About the fourth year on Dunn…
Extending a fourth year to Lowe is reportedly (si.com) what put us over the Mets. If we can commit to a 35 year old pitcher for four, I can’t imagine what would keep us extending that length to a 30 year old position player.
Added Norton and corrected a error in the summations. New total of 84.5 mil, so you’re looking at something closer to 7-9 mil left to spend.
Brian McCann, 3.5
David Ross, 1.5
Casey Kotchman, 3.5
Kelly Johnson, 1.5
Yunel Escobar, 0.5
Chipper Jones, 10
Brandon Jones, 0.39
Gregor Blanco, 0.4
Jeff Francoeur, 2
Greg Norton, 0.8
Matt Diaz, 2
Martin Prado, 0.45
Ruben Gotay, 1
Omar Infante, 2
Derek Lowe, 15
Javier Vasquez, 11.75
Ken Kawakami, 8
Jair Jurrjens, 0.45
Jorge Campillo, 0.45
Tim Hudson (DL), 13
Mike Gonzalez, 2.5
Rafeal Soriano, 6.1
Manny Acosta, 0.4
Jeff Bennett, 0.45
Blaine Boyer, 0.45
Buddy Carlyle, 0.4
Pete Moylan (DL), 0.45
Hudson $13.00
Lowe $15.00
Vazquez $11.50
Jurrjens $0.50
Kawakami $8.00
Campillo $0.50
Moylan $0.50
Gonzalez $4.00
Soriano $6.10
Boyer $0.50
Bennett $0.50
Logan $0.50
C
McCann $3.50
Ross $1.40
1B
Kotchman $2.75
Norton $0.80
2B
Johnson $1.75
Prado $0.50
SS
Escobar $0.50
Infante $1.85
3B
C. Jones $11.00
LF
Diaz $2.00
CF
Anderson $0.50
Blanco $0.50
RF
Francoeur $2.00
I overestimate on the pre-arb guys a little.
EDIT: I see you corrected yourself, Sam.
He was pretty unlucky last year, and the idea of upgrading Kotchman with Swisher make me salivate.
Swisher would play OF for us.
Dunn is more likely than Lowe to become totally useless by year 4 of a contract though.
If Lowe declines, he still may be a good 3 or 4 pitcher, albeit an expensive one.
If Dunn declines at the end of his deal, the chances are he’ll be blocking a prospect like Heyward who is ready to step in. Heyward may be ready by 2011 for all I know, and for that reason I’d avoid signing any OF to deals longer than 3 years. We have some legit prospects in line to come up around the end of that.
If Heyward is ready in 2011, great, that gives us a tradable asset in Dunn’s expiring contract should we get him at a 3 year deal. If Heyward isn’t ready by 2011, we still have Dunn. If we sign Dunn to a 4th year, then we’ve got less flexibility to promote the youngsters.
You can always slot Lowe down the rotation if he gets worse, but there’s no where for Dunn to go if other players prove more valuable.
csg – we lose a second rounder, I think.
Sam – obviously handedness is secondary, but it is a real concern. If we can trade Reyes/Prado (or something close) for someone like Dye, we need to do it. Especially if it comes out to be cheaper than whatever Dunn wants. Wren says he has deals on his desk. Now would be a great time to make one.
no offense, but nick swisher? thanks all the same, but i’d rather not. between the two, i’d rather have xavier nady.
csg, I heard that Kawakami’s contract is 3 years, 24 million.
anyone know if with Kawakami and Lowe in place if the Braves are still taking a look at Ben Sheets? make it so. please.
Rosenthal said we offered the 4th year on the condition that Lowe would make a quick decision. I like that.
DOB:
Interesting. I think I like that, too.
From the previous thread – Adam Dunn does not hit sac flies b/c they go over the fence. This has really hurt his sacrifice totals.
lol Stu, i think the Braves learned their lesson about guaranteeing an extra year only to have it shopped around from an earlier botched transaction. *cough* Furcal *cough*
I’d rather have Nady myself, a real RH power hitter. Yeah, Swisher was unlucky last year, but Nady has been steady. Nady for Prado/Reyes seems like a fair deal to me….
@30: Very well put Dix, there is a huge difference between the flexibility of Lowe, and Dunn.
I’m not sure I would want Dunn at all for his asking price, but if we even thought of going four years, it would be the worst move of the offseason by far.
Signing Dunn would pretty much make Andruw unsignable, unless he’s willing to sign a minor league deal, so we aren’t stuck with no room for our stable of soft-hitting outfielders. Blanco, Brandon Jones, and Josh Anderson aren’t going to benefit from anymore time in AAA, unless we can trade them, or we’re ready to give up on them, we’re going to have to get them out on the field and see what they’ve got.
I’d much rather pay Andruw $400K on a one-year gamble, than pay Dunn >$36 million on a three-year gamble.
Handedness matters. If we signed Dunn, the only RH batters in the lineup would be Yunel (not enough power) and Frenchy (not enough).
Look at how badly we struggled against left handers last year, and imagine that increased, coupled with about 15 games against AL East instead of the Central and the Teixeira / Kotchman delta.
@33 & 34: I love it… and I’m amazed at how quickly Frank Wren’s reputation turned from idiot to mastermind around here all by overpaying for one guy… Of course I’d rather have Lowe at 4/$60 than Burnett at 4/$68+(?)
This guy knows what he’s doing. Scheurholz didn’t just pick his name out of a hat.
@32 – It would be near lunacy for us to “look at” Sheets. There’s a reason we signed Lowe instead of Sheets. We need to worry about left field now.
@30 – That’s an excellent point.
I actually think Kotchman will be pretty good next year. Not Albert Pujols, but also not Scott Thorman. He’s projected a line of .286 .365 .450 on fangraphs and I think most would be pretty pleased with that.
Dunn doesn’t hit sac flies because he can’t hit for contact. Looking at Abreu’s B-ref page, unless you think he can’t come close to duplicating his last 2 offensive seasons, I’d say he’s worth a 2 year deal.
not saying he’s a mastermind, but something had to get done, and he acquired two good starting pitchers. i think we can all agree that we’re more pleasantly surprised than worshiping the ground Frank Wren walks on
.289/.370/.455
OPS+ of 117
20 SBs
100 RBI
16 HR
110Ks
80 BB
That’s worth something and it’s better than what we’ve got.
@44: Haha, okay, maybe I stretched it a little bit. I’m just feeling cocky, because I actually had faith that there was a plan in place… Now, if we can get Andruw signed once he’s officially dropped, and avoid throwing money at Dunn then I’ll be very happy.
@ #34: A very smart move especially after all the rumblings around the Smoltz debacle. Wren’s a smart one.
I like Dunn but not for 4 years. He has old-player skills and they tend to decline rapidly.
I’m OK with giving Andruw the Javy treatment: a spring training invite. As long as we are just as willing to give the quick hook if he is obviously toast. I see zero risk with this move. I’m not optimistic just because he lost weight. The guy was just cut in WINTER BALL. Last month. He didn’t drop 30 pounds since then.
Frank Wren has done a pretty good job and I was one of the ones who quickly blasted him over Smoltzgate. Currently we have 8-9 million to go LF shopping. That looks a whole lot better than 3-4.
Doesn’t St. Louis have a glut of OF? Is a Ludwick/Morton swap possible? Even if last year’s 299/375/592 (good lord!!!) was a fluke, his career line of 273/345/512 would still be the best (by far) in our OF.
Here’s how I envision that meeting going:
Wren: “I called you all here to discuss what happened with Smoltz and the situation going forward. I realize it came as a surprise to many of you and therefore I’ve decided it best that we have this meeting. I don’t want to hear any public comments or complaints when I do the same thing to Chipper. Any questions?”
I never thought I’d say this but it appears Scott Borass was the “reasonable” agent to dealw ith this time, vs. Furcal’s agents. Go figure.
Random thought:
I’d put kamikaze in the five spot in the rotation. One of the main benefits of acquiring Vasquez/Lowe is that they never miss a start. Kamikaze will be substantially upping his pitching frequency. IMO, it would be beneficial to give him the extra rest whenever possible.
The outfielder will come via trade and I am afraid KJ may still be on the block.
I would much rather the Bravos trade from their actual surplus of pitching depth than their perceived surplus of second basemen.
One must consider that subtracting KJ’s first year arbitration salary would give us a little more flexibility on what we pay the outfielder coming the other way. I guess I would be okay if it allowed us to fit Maggs onto our payroll.
I’d much rather pay Andruw $400K on a one-year gamble, than pay Dunn >$36 million on a three-year gamble.
I love Andruw as much as anyone. Really. But he’s not anything close to the impact player Adam Dunn would be. At his peak, factoring in defense, Andruw, was about the impact of Dunn right now.
If the Tigers would take Soriano in a deal, Maggs could be in play.
@34
I got an invite to a “town hall” meeting for season ticket holders on Thursday at 12:00 where Wren is apparently going to answer our questions as well. Both seem like good moves to me. Good to allow the team to vent a bit and also the fans plus a chance to maybe correct/clarify some rumors.
At his peak, factoring in defense, Andruw, was about the impact of Dunn right now.
No way, not if you’re factoring in both guys’ defense. It’s not close.
But Dunn is worth significantly more right now, for sure.
I’ve not done the math, but would it have to be something like KJ plus Soriano plus Morton for Maggs?
I’d go three years max on Dunn. I agree with Sam (just like old times on asbab), and have been saying all offseason: we need outfielders who can hit the ball. Handedness is a bonus.
Soriano for Maggs would be awesome if we have the budget. No way Dombrowski goes for it.
I disagree. Let’s see what Andruw brings to the table after a year to heal before we judge him too harshly. Before the last two years, Andruw put up some pretty impressive power numbers himself. I will concede the difference in walks, however, if you concede the difference in defense.
Edit: Maggs would fit better than either, however.
I would not do KJ/Morton/Soriano for Maggs. It’s too much to pay. Besides, we do not want Prado behind Lowe for 162 games.
Didn’t the Tigers already sign a guy to be their “closer”? Fuentes I think.
EDIT: I’m thinking of the Angels.
The Tigers have Zumaya back though right?
Brian Fuentes signed with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
I would rather protect Jurrjen’s innings than Kami’s
Soriano, Morton and Francoeur for Maggs. Make it happen!
Stu’s lips to Wren’s ears!
On Sam’s numbers (payroll),
You should add back Hudson’s insurance. Probably not less than 5. Therefore, the available number is around 15 million. That covers Dye or Dunn (and Nady and Swisher).
I would rather have Swisher and Dunn. If you move some salary in the deal for Swisher (maybe Soriano, maybe Gonzo, although I really don’t want to trade either of them) then you have enough for Dunn as well.
On 4 years for Dunn. If you did 12, 12, 11, 10 that would be 45 over 4 years. If you need to trade him in year 3, there is less owing. You should be able to move him ot AL to be a DH / 5th outfielder / 2nd 1B.
With two year deal for Abreu (or remaining 2 on Dye) they would possibly be toast (completely burned variety) to move next year.
Ilike 2 for Dye if Kenny Williams understands that2 for 8 per year on Burrell is the best comp on Dye and he can only hope to move the contract.
Before the last two years, Andruw put up some pretty impressive power numbers himself.
Yes, and Dale Murphy put up some impressive power numbers in his late 20s too. Don’t mean Murph’s a better option for the team right now. I’m a supporter of the “invite him to Florida and see what he’s got” theory of Andruw, but let’s not kid ourselves. He hasn’t had a couple of iffy seasons at the plate. He’s been one of the worst players in the league for two years running. The only reason I’m not *certain* he’d be the worst OF on the club is because of the putrid state of the current OF.
On Ludwick,
I don’t think he is as good as last year, but he is credible. He has a wierd problem for his career in that he has a reverse platoon split. IF he figures out how to hit lefties or gets a more normal distribution, then he really may be an elite hitter. But, if he doesn’t get lefties, then Braves might as well get Dunn, Abreu, Ankiel, whoever.
Kawakami gets 3 years/ 25 million…
http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/braves/entries/2009/01/11/t_hanson_d_lowe.html#comment-230482103
I don’t want to think of Druw as following the Murph path, but, yeah, you could be right, Sam H. I’d rather you be wrong, however; but that’s just wishful thinking.
On the other hand, Dunn’s never met a fly ball he couldn’t botch.
wonder if the yanks would take jeffy and prospects for Nady and swisher.. ( dream sequence begins)
Maggs is under contract for $18M in 2009, the last guaranteed year of his contract. What is nice about his contract is that it has 2 club options for ’10 and ’11 at $15M. The 2011 option does not even include a buyout.
It seems like the Tigers would have to take on all of Soriano’s contract to make it work for us. That means the other players in the deal would have to make it worth their while. Morton would have the potential to make them think about it. A $2M+ arb salary from KJ going the other way would further help to balance our payroll and might entice the Tigers to do the deal.
Am I just dreaming?
I wouldn’t trade KJ for Maggs. I’d rather sign one of the FAs and not lose such a valuable piece.
Good Q&A with Heap on the official site.
Cliff,
Yeah, Ludwick has a reverse platoon split, but I can live with 266/353/576 vs LHP.
And 316/386/598 vs Northpaws isn’t too shabby either.
He’s hitting his first arb year this winter. I think this is the guy you take your chances with. Look at those numbers again.
Prado/Morton for Ludwick?
What do the Cards need?
LUdwick would be okay. Maggs would be okay. Nady would be okay. I’m not a Dunn fan, but i could live with him too.
I guess I’ll just have to trust Wren. He obviously knows what he’s doing.
(Ain’t it fun being positive again?)
Interesting tidbit from somebody on DOB’s blog, that of the 8 players to ever play for one team for 20 years and then go elsewhere… half of them were Braves (Smoltz, Spahn, Neikro, Aaron).
I love Maggs, but don’t think he’s now in our budget (he’s getting $17M a year isn’t he? and it’s not a 2 year deal if I recall).
What sort of deal do you guys see on the table for Chipper extension (if it happens)? I would think something incentivized to run through ’12 with them paying something to the tune of $12M base and an extra $3-8M per year based on not going on the DL or missing too many games… though I’ve not really crunched any numbers (so yes, that’s just pulled out of thin air).
Even if we traded Soriano and they took on all of his contract, I don’t think we have enough money to pay for all of Orodnez’ 18 million. I could be wrong, and Wren has always said he’s flexible, but that would be awful expensive.
Does anyone have a link that says the Tigers are willing to trade Ordonez?
At this point, it seems the die is cast for 2009 and we will go get a LF.
Should we have a poll on who it will be? Or are there just too many options?
Dunn?
Maggs??
Nady?
Swisher?
Ludwick?
Dye?
Wren totally screwing it up and leaving us empty-handed would have to be an option. That’s mainly to avoid a jinx, but let’s not forget, he was fired by this board a few days ago.
One of the reasons I want Dunn is that we have lefty-killer Diaz back and healthy.
Diaz would be great in that role. Everyday left-fielder? Not so much …
Maggs $18M would have to equal payroll coming the other way plus our remaining budget. Soriano ($6.1M) plus KJ ($2.*M) plus our remaining budget (~$9M) seems close enough.
I would not trade him if I were the Tigers. That’s a sweet contract with 2 club options.
Morton or Reyes + Francoeur = Dye
Prado + Boyer = Nady
Me = Happy
In reality, probably only one would happen and the Dye deal wouldn’t include the Outs Electromagnet, but:
Blanco (L)
Escobar (R)
C. Jones (S)
Dye (R)
McCann (L)
Nady (R)
Kotchman (L)
Johnson (L)
would be very nice.
Weldon, I don’t have a link, but it was an early off-season topic because they were looking to clear some payroll.
My concern with Ludwick is twofold. One, he just ain’t gonna stay healthy. It’s not a thing he does. Two, his OBP is nowhere near as sweet as Dunn’s or Abreu’s — his BA isn’t going to be nearly as nice next year, after he comes down from his .342 BABIP, and his minor league OBP was .345. He’ll be alright, but Abreu and Dunn both push .400 OBPs, and Ludwick won’t even come close.
How about… KJ, Frenchy,+(Morton or Reyes) for Guillen, Taehan and Mahay. Maybe they’d take Soriano instead of a starter.
That would be a terrible trade. You know it’s bad when even getting rid of Francoeur doesn’t excite me.
I’m surprised Kawakami got as much as he did. Still a decent deal, but that’s a decent-sized commitment for a guy who could be anything between Hiroki Kuroda and Kei Igawa.
I’d be surprised if Dunn gets 3/36. Let’s not forget: Pat Burrell got 2/16, and Milton Bradley got 3/30. These players are not significantly worse than Dunn, and the argument could be made that they’re better. Who else is in on the Dunn discussion? The Angles? Maybe. The Giants? Perhaps, but I doubt it. The Nationals? Seriously? They’ve got 17 OFs and three 1B already. And with Manny around, Dunn’s not even the best player at his position. And if you miss on Dunn, there’s always Bobby Abreu who, though a shell of his former self defensively, can still hit.
If I’m looking at Dunn right now, it’s for a deal somewhere between Bradley’s and Burrell’s. Say, 3/24? 2/18?
I think Grogan meant Greinke instead of Guillen. At least I really hope he did.
And I’m calling for a 2/$20 deal for either Dunn or Abreu. If we had to go to 3/$30 for Dunn — Ibanez money, but he’s probably not gonna get more — I’d be all for it.
The Braves aren’t getting Magglio Ordonez. I’d like Dunn, but they’ll probably end up with Nady or Swisher…for something like Prado and a prospect or two.
Handedness matters.
No it doesn’t. Enough of the lefty-righty obsession. Good hitters will hit and good pitchers will get hitters out…handedness be damned.
Dan, the platoon differential is very real and nearly universal. It’s one of the primary reasons that the Braves failed last year. Ignoring it is a terrible idea, almost as much as KJ for the Low OBP Twins and a supernumerary LOOGY.
I guess Wren is willing to deal with Boras
Digging the increased use of “supernumerary”.
I’m with you 100% on 89, AAR.
So handedness only matters when the platoon split is real. The main issue is not how he hits, but how he hits left-handed pitching.
The platoon split is real. It is not significant enough to make Xavier Nady more useful than Adam Dunn.
I truly believe Dunn, who hit 40 homers for five straight years, sees more pitches than anyone else, and is only 28, will ultimately sign a bigger contract somewhere. I’m not saying I agree with it, but he will probably not be as cheap as some here are predicting. I hope I’m wrong and I hope the Braves sign him to a 3-year deal, during which time we’d get three really good seasons out of him. But I’m not counting on it.
The Braves don’t need another right handed bat. This is Francoeur’s year, I can feel it. He’ll hit .290/.350/.500 with 30 homeruns. He is not going to be anywhere near his career numbers, otherwise the Braves wouldn’t start him, right?
@ 95
When you consider that you’ll only have to pay Nady for one year and that you’ll have to pay Dunn for three (probably four), I’d much rather have Nady provided it doesn’t cost us anything of great significance in terms of players.
@53: No way! I’m sorry, but there is no way Adam Dunn is anywhere near Andruw’s 2005-6 impact level. But that wasn’t really my point. I’m not saying that Andruw will be better than Dunn this year, only that I’d rather not commit a ton of money to Dunn, and I think Andruw is a reasonable gamble for such a low cost. If Andruw flops then we’ve lost next to nothing. If we were a surefire contender I might be willing to add Dunn, but with the number of question marks already on this season I’d rather set ourselves up for the long-term, and hope to catch lightning in a bottle this season, rather than commit that much money to a declining player who is going to prevent us from providing the playing time that we should to Blanco, Anderson, B. Jones, et al. so we can get a real evaluation on where they stand… and still not put us clearly over the top.
Handedness really doesn’t matter if the left-handed hitter is Ted Williams. Can we trade French Lick for some of the Splinter’s DNA?
I hope the Braves sent the term sheet to Boras in a form that will blow up if he tries to show it to anyone else. Maybe contain a destruct device that Wren can activate based on any movement towards New York.
Adam-
He’s also hit about .250 each year and seems to be disliked amongst baseball GMs. He’s got a reputation (earned or no) for not really wanting to play the game.
And he’s really not significantly better than Burrell or Bradely (who’ve signed for cheap) nor Abreu (who will be signed for cheap).
Quick thoughts on the platoon thingy: Platoon splits exist and are nearly universal, although they vary in size from player to player. Even the best hitters in the game have them. The reason you don’t platoon elite hitters is that their “bad” side is usually better (or as good as) the backup “good” side. Diaz is a better hitter vs. LHP than Nady is, although Nady is better (mean “a bit above replacement level”) vs. RHP. If you have faith that Diaz will play for your next year, Nady is very close to useless. Nick Swisher has a very small platoon split and would be a better every-day guy than either Nady or Diaz, especially considering his positional flexibility.
Of course, Adam Dunn would far outshine any of these guys, posting a much better (200+ points of OPS) line against RHP and an only slightly-worse line against LHP. How you construct a lineup featuring KJ, Dunn, and BMac is, of course, another issue. 🙂
@91
Man, every time we faced Cole Hamels last year (which seemed to be an inordinate number of times) you knew before the game even started that he was going to take us behind the woodshed.
While that was the extreme, these splits:
vs RHP: .273 .350 .421
vs LHP: .264 .335 .381
should be addressed.
@97: Dan, I’m loving the optimism! Keep up the good work. Though I’d put the split more like .310/.350/.500 with 25 HRs, 120 RBIs, and 85 RS.
Jeff Francoeur, 2010 NL MVP!!!
Kenshin “The Dragon” Kawakami 2010 World Series MVP… Better reserve your seats now to Ride the Dragon!
On outifielders.
All other things being equal, if we trade for or sign someone, I would rather they have the ability to play center credibly (Edmonds, Ankiel, Ludwick, Swisher). That gives you a lot of options.
Next, I prefer somebody with some degree of fielding skill over the stiffs (as in, Ludwick, Swisher, maybe Nady over Dunn, Abreu, Dye). Ludwick’s and Swisher’s fielding difference probably overshoots any of those three.
I prefer a right handed bat. That makes Dye, Ludwick, and Swisher.
On Maggs, his next two option years (age 38 and 39) vest if he makes something like 500 PA’s this year. He costs an extra year and 4 million more the first two than Dye (who is probably less of a health risk). No go for Maggs even if it is “take the contract”. “I would take the contract” on an 8 year younger and, at this point, more athletic, Dunn (Dunn was an all world high school QB).
the american pacific
I am tempted to just leave that up there and confuse people, but I accidentally had that in my clipboard instead of something I wanted to post, and before I noticed it, I hit send. Sorry.
When you consider that you’ll only have to pay Nady for one year and that you’ll have to pay Dunn for three (probably four), I’d much rather have Nady provided it doesn’t cost us anything of great significance in terms of players.
You’d rather have to worry about LF all over again in at least 2010 than possibly have a logjam in 2011? I don’t really understand that. I don’t really want Nady specifically because he’d only be here for 1 year.
Well I was being sarcastic. I mean, can anyone think of a player who has no good track record who has gotten as many chances as Francoeur? I hate to seemingly pile on the guy, I really do I don’t hate Francoeur, but what other non-established Braves player could play like Francoeur has for the past three full years and still be coronated an everyday starter? If, say, Yunel Escobar or Kelly Johnson hit exactly like Francoeur did in 2008 in as many at-bats, would they still be starters for this team? Why does Francoeur get so many more chances than so many others?
Somewhere, a deserving 25 year-old minor leaguer who has yet to get the call or any chance at all in the majors is looking at Francoeur, shaking his head and cursing how life isn’t fair.
I think KLaw likes the signings…
I read somewhere that Smoltz is going to hold a press conference in Atlanta tomorrow. What do you all think is up with that? Is this more public relations warfare, or is it perhaps the opposite, the result of an agreement between The Braves and Smoltz to make their parting look more amicable? Or is it common for someone to hold a press conference in the city of his new team, and THEN hold one in his old team’s city?!
His entrance music could be Lalo Schifrin’s theme music to “Enter the Dragon” — or, more likely, since it’s Atlanta, “Unleash the Dragon” by Sisqo.
DOB:
Even better.
Ethan-
It’s worth noting that Dunn’s line is better than both of those. So he’d help vs. LHP and vs. RHP.
@53: No way! I’m sorry, but there is no way Adam Dunn is anywhere near Andruw’s 2005-6 impact level
regrettably, Andruw Jones certainly isn’t.
And for the record Andruw 05-06 RC/G 6.5,6.9
Adam Dunn 7.8, 6.6
Hunh. Whaddaya know?
Kawakami should enter to this:
http://blogfiles.wfmu.org/KF/0506/takeshi/Takeshi_Terauchi_and_Bunnys_-_Track_1.mp3
The greatest japanese surf record of all time (seriously, you should all click on this – it’s just stunning)
Cliff @ 105: Abreu can play LF. He’s below avg in RF at this point, which is where he’s played his whole career, but he’d be an above-league-avg LF (the league avg for left fielders is terrible).
Spike-
Andruw’s value as a premier CF vs. Dunn’s (lack of) value as a very bad defensive player at 1B/LF more than makes up any of that difference. Dunn was (and still is) the better player offensively, but Andruw Jones was by far the more valuable player.
Didn’t say Dunn was better – I just thought the assertion “nowhere near” was a trifle overstating the case.
prevent us from providing the playing time that we should to Blanco, Anderson, B. Jones, et al. so we can get a real evaluation on where they stand
There is only one reason to play Blanco or Anderson; you don’t have a real major league center fielder. I’ll give Brandon Jones another year to bounce back and become something useful at the ML level but Blanco and Anderson are the very definition of replacement level players. Neither should have at bats wasted on them to see how they “develop” if there is a better alternative.
If we can get a bat and hang in there till the all-star break, we will be in a place to make a move or two
If we can get a bat and hang in there till the all-star break, we will be in a place to make a move or two
Getting Tim Hudson back in August wouldn’t suck for a playoff push. Go get Adam Dunn.
Smitty,
Your barber said the Indians might be looking to deal Sizemore at the break, and that they love Morton, Schafer and Freeman.
Mac, here is the jersey picture:
http://i44.tinypic.com/16h4yuo.jpg
I would soil myself if he came out to Unleash the Dragon.
wait a sec — is his jersey number 11?
Yup.
Didn’t wikipedia supposedly report that well before an official deal was reached?
Wikipedia just used his number from when he played for the Chunichi Dragons. He was #11 there too.
No way. Wikipedia knows. I shall now turn to wikipedia to prepare for my exam tomorrow.
Or just create a Wikipedia entry saying that you already got a perfect score.
Headed to an industry trade show in Anaheim tomorrow.
Each year at this exhibition, when I hook up with the Japanese R&D guys from the various gear manufacturers, our conversation eventually squirms toward baseball.
Nice to know that this year I’ll have more to discuss than Hideki Matsui, Kei Igawa or Bobby Freakin’ Valentine.
So, to Kawakami-san, I raise my glass of saki.
131 — Maybe my professors will check and just grant me a PhD no questions asked.
@ 108
Stu, if the LF is Adam Dunn, yeah I’d rather take my chances with Nady this year, find another stopgap next year and wait for the kids in 2011. I’m just not a big Dunn guy, and don’t want to have to pay $12 million in 2011 and possibly 2012 for an overweight aging slugger who may or may not give a crap about baseball. Let’s get Nady and take the draft picks (again provided he doesn’t cost anything exorbitant in terms of players).
Is it me or is Xavier Nady a pretty average player who played out of his skin for half a season?
I think he’s an above average player. Maybe only slightly above average. Overall I feel the same way about Dunn, though I realize I’m probably in the minority there.
The word “average” doesn’t apply to Dunn in any way. He’s either really good or really bad at everything.
I’m with you, NickC. Nady doesn’t excite me at all. Last year was a career year.
Dunn’s been exactly the same (great) hitter for the past 4 years.
Ill take a really average outfielder.
@137…but doesn’t extreme good plus extreme bad give you an overall impression of…average?
At the end of the day if we get Dunn I’ll be excited because he’s a clear #4 hitter, which we need more than anything. He’s just such an ugly player. When other GM’s float “doesn’t like baseball” and you talk about signing him for 3 and possibly 4 years…that makes me nervous.
I like Dunn.
I’d love Dunn if we didn’t have KJ, Kotchman, McCann and our 4th outfielders with Heyward, Freeman and Schafer to come. I’d never give him more of than three year deal though.
I think we’ll pick up Andruw for Spring Training and hopefully hitting with McCann and Chipper at the moment will help him fix some flaws.
After that I think either we’ll sign someone at rock bottom prices off the free agent market like the Cardinals did with Kyle Lohse, we’ll wait until the season starts and the Yankees realise that they have too many outfielders and DHs to fit on their 25 man roster, or we’ll do the classic wait until the deadline and hope that we can get Dye, Holliday or someone if we’re in contention.
I don’t like Dunn.
I like Dunn’s power, thats it. 40+ homers 5 years in a row is damned impressive though.
We’ll be watching a lot of whiffery this season with Francouer, Andruw, and Dunn in the line-up.
Have there been Dunn rumors anywhere else other than from Rosenthal?
The Astros seem to be collecting Braves’ rejects; signing Russ Ortiz.
Maybe the Astros will get Leo.
To be fair, at least they didn’t pay anything for Ortiz. Unlike Hampton.
Fly Ball Russ in the Juice Box? I’m watching that.
That ought to be entertaining to say the least!
They could trade for Horacio and sign Chuckie when he gets healthy to complete the set.
Yeah, we have a rotation for once. Now let’s work on the offense. Then when we thought everything is set, the bullpen will be a problem because nobody can stay healthy.
Peanut has a new article up. Among other things it speculates that the Braves have more interest in Swisher than Nady — and that they’re not interested in paying Dunn or other FA outfielders (Abreu) big bucks.
Cool pic here.
what’s the sign say, billy-jay?
Actually, I didn’t notice until it was too late to edit, but there are 4 pics of Kawakami there. Click on the pic and then click on the arrows. I’ll have to ask the wife what the kanji says.
Can means the soul, the mind, or the spirit.
Okay, the wife says that it’s é‚　(tamashii), which means soul.
Solid. He’s got soul.
Okay, the caption for the one where he’s wearing the suit says Major League Kawakami (Throw with great spirit).
I can dig it.
Dunn walks alot. Maybe he could get hot when KJ cools off and vice versa
I like this signing a lot. Now I’ll actually get to see the Braves in the local news.
“I would say that my style is that I put all of my soul into all of my pitches,” Kawakami said. “I hope to show that while I’m pitching in Atlanta.”
I think the Vols should put someone on Meeks
It’s great to see a player who is excited to come here, and I really Hope Kami pans out.
Now let’s get a bat and be done with this offseason.
You gotta like someone who comes to Atlanta and goes to the Varsity….I am envious as its been too many years….
Stephen,
I missed The Varsity so much from my law school days (which only ended in 2007) that I insisted on stopping by the newer one in Kennesaw when we were down with my parents for Thanksgiving weekend.
Stu–There is one in Kennesaw? I think that the last time I actually ate in the Varsity Gerald Ford was President.
That said, I once knew of a Vandy student who missed the Varsity so bad that one night he took some of his buddies (Northerners who had no clue of its existence) for a drive to Atlanta so that they could all partake in the pleasure….
Sounds like a pretty good man.
Has Lowe’s wife been mentioned? She should take over the Mrs. Kotsay role: http://www.sprstar.com/twwl/pho/c/carhug/cap/061904a/index.html
I like Dunn, and I think the Braves need two bats. Hell, I think they needed two bats last season, when they had Teixeira. Now they’ve replaced Teixeira with Kotchman and are saying they only need a LF? Whatever. I guess it depends on what the goal is.
We need two corner outfielders. IF we had two productive corner outfielders, we could easily live with Kotchman and Blanco. I think we will only get the LF….
But he went to the Varsity and had a hamburger. That seems wrong.
“I would say that my style is that I put all of my soul into all of my pitches,â€
Now THAT’S what I’m talkin’ ’bout.
Good moves, Birdman. Now let’s get a bat.
Good point, Mac. How about ‘Varsity Ken’?
Actually my wife suggests “Kendo Kenshin”–‘Kendo’ is the art of the sword–which is a distinctly Japanese way of fighting with the sword….
Nekkid steak!
How about Derek “Shawty” Lowe?
No?
Well, at least he realizes there is no sushi being offered at the Varsity. I think he will be fine, ha.
From DOB: “And remember, the Braves might have overpaid for Lowe, but they avoided giving him a no-trade clause.”
I certainly like that a lot. I personally think Wren has a fine offseason, but he completely underestimated the market for Smoltzie and handled it very poorly.
Up to now, I will give him a “B/B+”. If not for the Smoltzie incident, I would give him a straight “A”.
I apologize if this has already been posted, but it’s worth reading.
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/12/the-murph/
I was wondering how long before somebody mentioned ‘journalist’ Carolyn Hughes. Anyway, in that link that Ethan had earlier KLaw says “Like all pitchers coming from Japan, he’ll also have to adjust to the larger baseball used here.” Um, what ? I have never heard that before.
If Smoltz can’t pitch at all, maybe he gets an A?
Naw – you still can’t let Smoltz leave town. You just can’t.
I think he will be extra motivated up in Boston, FWIW. He will pitch for them in the 2nd half, and pitch great.
braves14, you can’t make assessment like that with hindsight judgement. Wren tried to lowball Smoltzie all along and he was blind-sided by the Red Sox. The lower grade reflects his mistake in reading the market wrong.
Maybe I am a bit harsh, but I love Smoltzie.
@181
Though one would be remiss in not pointing out that Mac has made the argument just as (if not more) convincingly over the years.
I think that a B is an appropriate grade–of course the offseason has a way to go and the grade could improve.
Smoltz is the main thing, but also I think that he overpaid for Lowe (a minor issue) and Ross. In fact, I wish that we could have just stayed with Sammons, but adding Ross was probably Bobby’s call.
In any event, the Vazquez deal might have demonstrated greater foresight: it would have been better to do it earlier and add a prospect and then get Swisher (or Dye) and instead of Boone Logan. Of course, this is easier to see in retrospect, but I still wonder about the Logan part of the exchange.
I also wish that he had gone after Burrell–I am afraid we are left with a position in which more prospects need to be traded or we will overpay for Dunn.
The Smoltz issue is not just about Braves’ heritage; I believe that he could have been a great asset coming out of the pen.
Now, all of that said, a B grade is a good grade and one which I expect will improve….
It was a good day, but I’m still holding off on any grade for Wren until this picture is finished.
Oh Hello, Mrs. Lowe!!
Stephen, Wren actually wants “Logan Boone”. I read somewhere that the whole discussion of Vazquez trade started with Wren asking for “Logan Boone”. I guess Wren wants Boone as a cover in case he does not sign Ohman back.
In respect of Swisher, DOB said Wren was too engaged in the Peavy trade that Wren wants to keep all his trading cards at that time.
No matter how I look at it, I still want none of Burrell or Dunn.
Do we still have money (we certainly have the prospects) to trade for Dye?
Then why as he been talking to Ohman? Logan might be a credible loogy, but he smacks of Ridgeway to me–that is, a bad pitcher that someone in the Braves’ organization has the hots for.
I am not as negative about Dunn as you are–but I can live with him for a couple of years. What I would really like to see happen is sign Dunn and then trade for Nady AND Swisher. Put Swisher at 1B and Nady in RF and Dunn in LF.
Now, we would have to give up a good bit–but I wonder if Kotchman, Prado, Soriano, a well-regarded prospect (Reyes or Locke) and maybe throw in Frenchy (who the Yanks could then deal to a small market team) to get the job done.
Of course, I doubt that it will ever happen….
I don’t mind to have Dunn if we don’t have Frenchy on our team. If you put Dunn, Andruw, and Frenchy in the same outfield, then no base running skill will ever be required. I am sure you can understand my logic. I am not DOWN on individual player, but Dunn and Burrell don’t fit well into this offense…mainly because of Frenchy’s, and possibly Andruw’s, existence.
I don’t think we need super-power guy, and I prefer a power guy with less power but higher batting average so he can move runners on base with singles or doubles.
We can trade both Morton and JoJo away now in my opinion.
I don’t really think the danger of Andruw returning is all that great–but your comparison with Brian Jordan (yesterday) has merit. I think the better parallel in terms of output is Nate Colbert, but Bobby likes veterans.
I would trade either Morton or Jo Jo and keep one at AAA in case the injury bug bites….
I just don’t like to have too many HR-BB-K guys in the lineup…heck…Andruw is HR-K and Frenchy is purely K…I love our outfield.
I like Morton, but seems like Wren has no plan for him.
I am not big on Three Outcome hitters either and I would certainly welcome alternatives to what has been mooted in the press. The bottom line is that we need at least one more right hand bat and we do have some holes in our lineup.
Morton presents an interesting case: here we have a pitcher with great stuff and a confidence problem. Since much of pitching involves confidence, this is quite critical.
I think that he will do well where he is not in the spotlight. One of the things I like about this week’s developments is that idea that Morton could be our #5 starter and get some time to develop. If he can believe in himself, he might become a very useful pitcher.
I will be very curious to see what the Braves do with him….
Andruw is HR-K
Really? The guy hit all of three homeruns in 2008.
Adam Dunn is NOT comparable to Jeff Francoeur or the current Andruw Jones.
Wren tried to lowball Smoltzie all along and he was blind-sided by the Red Sox. The lower grade reflects his mistake in reading the market wrong.
Did you guys actually watch/read Smoltz’ press conference in Boston? The Red Sox expect him to return *in June.* The Red Sox are paying him $5.5 million to rehab until June. All he is is a potential post-season wild-card for them.
The Braves just signed Ken Kawakami for $7 million per year. Now ask yourself, is the thrill of waiting and hoping for John Smoltz to rehab worth 4/5’s of Kawakami’s expected year? Unless you’re judging based on fond memories of the drunken orgy that ensued after the 1992 NLCS – and don’t get me wrong, I remember that drunken orgy as fondly as anyone – the answer is clearly NO. Frank Wren made the correct call on Smoltz. At $2.5 mil guaranteed and some performance/roster bonuses, he’s a nice-to-have coming back as a fifth starter after the All-Star break. At $5.5 mil guaranteed he’s a 42 year old drag on your budget taking up the roster spot of a guy that could be helping you compete rather than taping his shoulder back together.
Get past the nostalgia and analyze the situation and you’ll see that Wren made the right call there. Boston has the budget and roster to take a five and a half million dollar flyer on John Smoltz, super-ace in the playoffs. Atlanta does not.
As for the outfield, I can’t stress enough that Adam Dunn is the only premiere offensive contributor left on the market. Xavier Nady is a league average journeyman coming off of a career year. Nick Swisher is a nice player, especially in center, but he doesn’t impact and offense the way Dunn does. Adam Dunn is the anti-Francoeur. He does, almost perfectly, the one thing that Francoeur fails miserably at. He controls the plate. He gets on base. He makes pitchers work. He doesn’t make outs nearly 40% of the time. THAT is an offensive player’s job. Not hitting for average or moving runners over or whatever other clap trap years of listening to Joe Simpson natter on incessantly might have convinced you is the case. When a the plate, a player’s job is to make the pitcher work, see pitches, and when a good pitch is there, hit the crap out of it. If no good pitch is present, the offensive player should not offer at it. Adam Dunn is one of the best in baseball at doing that. Forget batting average (look at OBP); forget strikeouts (look at total outs recorded.)
And for God’s sake, get over the handedness thing. If you’re in a situation where you have two reasonably useful options and one of them offers you a better “lineup balance” for handedness, you take that into consideration. If you’re in a situation where you could either spend money on an A-level offensive threat like Adam Dunn or spend prospects on a B/C-level player like Xavier Nady you go get the guy that scares the shit out of opposing pitchers. Handedness doesn’t even enter into the equation.
I think John used a little Just for Men for his press conference.
My biggest issue with losing Smoltz was that it came in what was at the time a wretched off season. Now that we’ve made some solid moves I’m very much ok with seeing him go.
Dunn is at least a good three outcome guy. Frenchy is Strikeout, DP, and fluke singles.
Stephen in the UAE: You’re posting at all hours of the day! Don’t you sleep, dude? Or are you two people?
Rob Cope: Base stealing question. Ricky Be Ricky on the Hot Stove show last night on the MLB Network. Talking about stealing thrid. He said he paid no attention to the infielders, only watching the pitcher’s elbow on his throwing arm.
Took a walk out seven steps and stood quiet, watching that elbow.
What do you think of that technique ( other than it worked)?
Speculating on outfield prospects.
Money:
Dye 2 at 12
Dunn 4 at 12
Swisher 3 at 6 (avg)
Abreu
Speculating on outfield prospects.
Money:
Swisher 3 at 6 (avg)
Nady 1 @ 9.5
Abreu 2 @ 10
Dye 2 at 12
Dunn 4 at 12
versatility / general athletic ability (1-10)
Swisher 8
Nady 6
Abreu 4
Dye 2
Dunn 2
Offensive perf. (OPS)
Dunn 900
Dye 900
Abreu 840
Nady 800
Swisher 800
Cost in players:
Dunn 0
Abreu 0
Dye not much
Nady not much
Swisher a little more
3 year averages on Jermaine Dye make him an almost equal offensive player to Dunn (slightly lower OBP on same OPS give the nod to Dunn). If the players aren’t important to us, then Dye makes sense because of “handedness” on a team that we KNOW has had struggles against lefties.
With Swisher, his last three years offense is almost exactly as good as Nady’s and he is two years younger and cheaper and (an advantage as far as I am concerned) cost controlled for two more years. Neither is as good of an offensive player as the other guys, although adjusting for age decline and age improvement and “handedness” Swisher may be a fair bet to equal Abreu.
So, I say get Swisher. Then, you might still have a 2 year and 10 per year you can offer to Dunn or Abreu (maybe go 3 with Dunn).
Dye is really only 1/$11.5M, if you assume the mutual option will be voided by one side or the other, as almost always happens.
Dunn won’t get more than 3 years.
Swisher actually averages $7M per season over the next 3.
Abreu, I would guess, will get something like 2/$20M.
Agree almost entirely with Sam but I do think handedness makes a difference, especially right handedness vs. lefties. Left handed hitters, except for the very best, almost always have more problems hitting lefties than righties do hitting righties, probably because they don’t see them as much. With the kind of lefthanders you face in the NL East, I do think it makes a big difference. Plus, whatever you think about them, those LOOGYs can be really tough on lefties in key situations. On the other hand, if the choice is a good lefthanded hitter or a mediocre right handed hitter, you are obviously better off with the leftie. Same with the pitching staff; I think it is somewhat of a problem to not have a leftie because there are going to be some teams especially susceptible to lefthanded pitching, although it’s probably more important to have lefties in the bullpen for match up purposes.
Cliff-
Why are Abreu and Dunn (4@12?!)going to cost way, way more than Burrell (2@8) and Bradley (3@10)?
I really, REALLY don’t understand your reasoning there.
Moreover, the best reason to get Dunn is that he costs neither players (in a trade) or draft picks.
To me, the analysis of outfielders above makes it look like the preference should be:
1. Dye
2. Swisher
3. Dunn
Of course, it could all depend on cost. If Dunn gets 4/56, he drops off the list. If the Yanks or Chi-Sox wants too much in return, Swisher and Dye drop.
As for the outfield, I can’t stress enough that Adam Dunn is the only premiere offensive contributor left on the market.
That’s true Sam; however, an outfielder’s contribution isn’t only offensive. And the point that you (all almost all other Dunn proponents) leave out, is that Adam Dunn is, by far, one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball.
How bad? His UZR/150 last year was -22.4. (meaning he gave up 22.4 more runs than the average outfielder over 150 games) This is abysmal to the point that it mitigates much of the offensive prowess that you speak so highly of.
As a point of comparison, Nady has been about average defensively as an corner outfielder over his career and Swisher has been outstanding in that role.
To be fair to Dunn, that’s putrid beyond even his norm. Some of that can be attributed to the fact that he spent significant time in RF last year (where he was a mind blowing -71.5 run liability over 150 game. However, over the past 4 years he has averaged being a -16.5 run liability as a defensive player. This is neither insubstantial nor inconsequential. Adam Dunn hurts your team defensively.
Is it enough to completely marginalize his offensive contributions? Obviously, no, but it is definitely something to factor in along with the gaudy OBP and HR totals when considering a multi-year, eight digit price tag.
I like all of them but Nady, honestly. And I still like the Ludwick idea, too, although not for KJ or Mike Gonzalez.
Maggs remains the dreamiest of pipe dreams.
If the Chi-Sox want to trade Maggs, we better be talking to them.
Somebody on here said those options for Maggs were vesting options. Cots says they are pure team options. Is there a link to the contrary?
mraver,
Bradley was an injury case. Offensively, he was better than any of the other DH / corner outfield types in this year’s market (slightly) but he has played more than 120 games once in 7 or 8 years. And, last year he had a nagging quadricep problem and couldn’t play the field. Being able to take the field and make a minimal or poor performance is better than no performance. NL teams (including the one to sign Bradley) can’t DH him.
Specifically, the Cubs needed to get lefthanded and with Bradley’s switch hitting, he may have been a better option than Abreu or Dunn. If Bradley averages 100 games a year (his career average) then they got took.
I feel Burrell sold himself low (I may be wrong). The Bradley signing suggests that he did sell himself low. (Burrell has been a lesser injury risk and more likely to be able to take the field than Bradley). Plus the Ibanez signing is the high outlier and further suggest that Burrell was too low. Juan Rivera is a low outlier (almost as good as Ibanez, but health issues like Bradley and , to a lesser extent, Burrell).
It may be possible to get either Dunn or Abreu lower than I projected. Burrell’s contract is a big negative to the market. Plus, I don’t see many other teams in on Dunn or Abreu (Sox are feeling out Dunn on a 1 year deal). But, I feel confident that, by spring training, one of those 2 can be had for those numbers. So, to compare (like I was trying to do), I think you need to start where you have a realistic chance of signing somebody.
I felt the Braves should have gotten in on Burrell at 8 for 2 or on Kapler at 1 for 1. If they had gotten Kapler, then I would have less of a problem with “handedness” on Abreu and Dunn. To me, with this team’s 2008 790 ops against right handers and 720 ops against left handers, we need righties or switchhitters that can handle lefties as good or better.
Part of the handedness thing is making it too easy for opposing managers. We need Chipper and McCann separated by a credible right handed hitter (like Esco 2, Chipper 3, new guy 4, McCann 5). Chipper has never produced the power right handed that he has left handed. McCann is amazingly good against lefties, but you need somebody to stop the lineup from being “loogy’d” in the 6th and again in the 8th. This thing absolutely killed the Braves in 07 with Chipper, Crime Dog, Klesko.
That’s true Sam; however, an outfielder’s contribution isn’t only offensive. And the point that you (all almost all other Dunn proponents) leave out, is that Adam Dunn is, by far, one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball.
I don’t leave out Dunn’s defensive shortcomings at all. In most of my posts here I have made some point to the effect of “Go get Dunn and tell Josh Anderson to be ready to defend in th 7th, 8th and 9th.” While I’m not completely sold on UZR’s run calcs I certainly recognize the fact that Dunn is a bad defender. But I don’t think he’s so bad a defender that he makes up the difference between his gaudy offense and Nady’s rather pedestrian bat. I would have supported the Furcal-to-2B, KJ to LF move because you’d have been improving defense at both positions, adding Furcal’s offense (over Blanco/Anderson). That would be roughly equivalent to Dunn’s OPS advantage. But without the Furcal defensive advantage and the Furcal offensive bump, you’re left with Xavier Nady, and he’s just not going to close that gap at all. He’s just not that good. He’s this year’s model of BJ Surhoff.
mags plays for the tigers.. right ?
I wouldn’t trade any of our non-pitchers, either in the farm or on the MLB roster at this point. We need hitters and we have a lot of pitchers. Seems like the thing to do would be to buy a hitter or trade pitchers for one.
MEEKSMEEKSMEEKSMEEKS!!!!
Sorry, had to do that.
Back to the Braves:
One reason I like Dunn on next year’s team is that I think we will need to win games 6-5 about ninety times to make the playoffs. And I think Dunn helps us do that.
I also think it’s possible to ultimately move him to 1B when the more prototypical LF candidate emerges.
And, again, don’t forget about Diaz against lefties. Dude has one remarkable skill and that’s hitting lefties.
And for all that is holy, don’t let Bobby put a lineup out there that includes Andruw AND Francouer. Talk about saltpeter on the food …
Another lineup thing may be to move Chipper down. I know he doesn’t like that, but what about
4. Chipper
5. New guy
6. McCann
Everybody else would sort like this, maybe.
Lefthander:
1. Diaz/ Esco
2. KJ
3. Esco/ Diaz
7. Frency(if not replaced)
8. Kotchman
Righthander:
1. Blanco
2. Esco
3. KJ
7. Kotchamn
8. Frenchy
After doing this it kind of seems obvious that this would only work if Swisher is “new guy” because you can’t platoon Diaz into center.
If “new guy” effectively replaced Francoeur (Dye or Abreu), and if Diaz/ Blanco covered left and if Schafer covered center, then that wouldn’t be so bad.
But, you get back to the fact that we need 2 new guys in the outfield (unless 2007 or better Francoeur shows up, which I doubt).
That MLB Network is very addictive, even if it seems that the “Hot Stove” show is on 12 hours a day. But yeah, that bit with Rickey (and Barry Larkin/Harold Reynolds) was pretty cool.
I second pretty much everything Sam said, including the handedness thing.
Also, Adam Dunn is a LF. LFs are supposed to be awful defensively. That’s where you’re supposed to stick your good offensive player that you have no defensive place for. So will he be bad, yes. But if he’s in left field, it’s really not gonna make that much of a difference. Plus, since our problem is offensive, shouldn’t we be looking more at that anyway and not really worrying so much about defense? This obsession with getting a good defensive LF is, I must admit, beginning to perplex me.
ububba you’re not kidding. I’m going to have to come up with some way to forget about it or I’ll never leave the sofa/chair/somewhere with a TV. I don’t actually watch any TV shows regularly now, and last year all I watched was baseball games. But if allowed I’d be watching MLB Network all the dang time.
Take anyone on the team from the MLB down to the AA level and drop them at first base and they defend it better than Adam Dunn does.
Sorry – Yes Maggs plays for the Tigers.
I must have thinking about Dye when I typed that.
Kevin,
Watching infielders can only hurt you. In a bunt situation, a lot of defenses put on a wheel play. You’ll see a lot of pick-offs on the bunt wheel play defense because a runner on second gets distracted by the shortstop cutting in front of him, and then you’re picked.
If you’re on second, and there’s a runner at first with less than two outs, then the middle infielders are going to most likely be at double-play depth anyway, which won’t tell you whether or not they’re trying to cheat to break to the bag. I’ve always been taught to look at the pitcher’s elbow or his hips, and there’s advantages and disadvantages to both. I like his hips because his hips are going to tell you where he’s going before his elbow will. Either way, you’re getting a better read on the pitcher than if you’re checking out the middle infielders.
Also, Adam Dunn is a LF.
I’d take this one step further. Dunn is a LF/1B. While the gaping chest wounds in this offense are on the outfield corners that doesn’t mean there aren’t other serious wounds to address elsewhere. Due to the severity of the former everyone looks past the bullet holes at first base and just sort of hopes Kotchman puts up something useful. While that’s more likely than Jeff Francoer ever being a productive major leaguer (or Andruw Jones rebounding to 2005 form and saving us all) it’s not a given. And if he doesn’t it sure would be nice to have Adam Dunn banging around LF and Jason Heyward asking “what else is there to prove down here” than being stuck with Rico Brogna revisited and the prayer than Freeman progresses faster than he will.
@182
I’ve heard the smaller ball thing quite a bit too. I don’t know how that relates to transitioning from Japanese baseball to American baseball. For pitchers, obviously a smaller ball is tougher to get good wood on, but it would also hinder breaking pitches that he throws. For a hitter, obviously a smaller ball is tougher to hit, but I’d imagine it’d carry better.
Does anyone else know about the ball Japanese baseball uses?
@217 – FJM would have loved that post
So will he be bad, yes. But if he’s in left field, it’s really not gonna make that much of a difference
So if we follow your line of reasoning, Tampa Bay receives no utility for Carl Crawford’s defense simply because he’s in left field? Just because most left fielders aren’t great defenders doesn’t mean that their teams aren’t affected by that poor defense.
You make my point. That is what makes Dunn’s defensive metrics so appalling. He isn’t being compared to Ichiro, Beltran, and Sizemore. He is being compared to Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, and Jack Cust.
shouldn’t we be looking more at that anyway and not really worrying so much about defense?
No. Defense has been undervalued. This is why Burrell signed for 8 MM, Philly was bashed for the Ibanez signing, and Dunn is still without a job. If the pendulum swing too far the other way, (as some said it did with Burrell) then it would be smart to jump in. But ignoring defense is stupid.
I’m not sure why we’re so concerned with Dunn’s defense when we’ve been regularly trotting out Infante and Norton in LF, and before that we had Diaz, who went through some early rough patches. And Thorman. Yeesh.
White Sox apparently want a deal of Chone Figgins for Dye. Angels aren’t interested.
What about Blanco / Anderson with Prado. That gets “speed guy in outfield” and “utility around the infield.” Maybe throw in a live arm and get back a low minors guy.
If we don’t give up much in players, Dye looks good. I wasn’t aware that his contract was mutual option after this year until somebody posted that earlier.
If we could get Dye without giving up Blanco that would be better. I really feel Blanco can 300 380 400 (or better) against righthanders pretty easily. I don’t think he is credible against leffties. That is why Swisher and Kapler make and made sense for us.
Our two speed guys in the outfield are less than mediocre lefthanded hitters (Blanco / Anderson). Our next plan for center, after those 2, is Schafer who is a better offensive player than Blanco or Anderson, but hasn’t yet proved he can hit lefties either (and probably needs to stay down a while until he does that). So, we can’t stand the center field suckitude of Blanco and / or Anderson / and / or Schafer against lefties.
Swisher would let us play him in center against lefties, play Blanco against righties and move Swisher to right (because Francoeur will probably revert to 280 / 325/ 430 against lefties and 250/ 290 / 350 against righties).
And, with Swisher at 5.5 this year, increasing for two years, we “might” be able to add Dye if we move payroll in the Swisher deal (and the only way to do that would be to move Soriano or Gonzo and I don’t really want to do that). Or maybe with an extra player, the White Sox would eat some salary.
The idea of Dunn and Andruw huffing around the same outfield sorta makes me laugh.
@227… the difference being that Andruw would likely get to the ball.
Of course the wind from both of their Ks would cause weather problems… the difference being that Dunn would end up on base regularly.
Kevin Lee–the UAE is 9 hours ahead of the East Coast–I can post in the morning and late at night (EST). However, I miss the middle of day discussion which all of you guys have.
Fortunately, KC is in Hong Kong and 4 hours ahead of me, which enables me to enjoy his postings. At times last summer if felt as if KC and I were the Braves Journal night shift….
Anyway, given the above discussion, I am guessing that the Braves will go with Nady. I think after the Lowe deal, Wren is not afraid to do business with Boras so even though we would only control Nady for a year, I don’t think it will bother Wren…
Alright, then. If I’m vastly undervaluing defense, then you’re vastly undervaluing power. This team had absolutely no power last year after Tex left, and as currently constituted, will not again. Jermaine Dye is not going to provide that power. Adam Dunn will. We have got to have a legitimate 30-40 HR threat in our lineup. Last year without that was disastrous on a variety of levels. Not the least of which is that Bobby cannot manage when he’s not managing for the three-run homer. When he tries to delve into small ball, it’s pretty awful, as we’ve seen. But outside of that, we cannot operate without a legitimate power threat in our lineup, and we don’t have one right now. If it takes bad defense in a position where you can expect bad defense, I think I can probably live with that. Dye would be better than what we have now, but a) not nearly as good as everyone thinks he is…he never has been, and b) we would still have no power threat in our lineup whatsoever. That is a problem. A far bigger problem than decreased defense at a position where everyone has no defense.
Why Swisher over Abreu?
And incidentally, Xavier Nady sucks. I’ve yet to figure out why anybody wants to trade for him.
And also, we already have an excellent defensive 1B, which is the other position people stick crappy defensive players, so we can afford to have a crappy LF even more than most teams, really.
Gosh, Adam Dunn hit 40 homers and 23 doubles last year, and slugged .513. Jermaine Dye hit 34 homers and 41 doubles and slugged .541. I can’t quite see how Dunn would add power and Dye wouldn’t.
If Nady sucks, then the rest of our OF is near death.
Well part of that equation is easy….
If Nady sucks, then the rest of our OF is near death.
Is this even a debate? A major problem with Atlanta’s 2008 team and their current lineup in 2009 is that they’re starting three fifth outfielders (at best.) There isn’t a single outfielder on the Braves roster who would play every day on a legitimate playoff contender. NOT A SINGLE ONE. When Jeff Francoeur and the blind hope that he’ll “bounce back” to an OPS just approaching 800 is your BEST OPTION you suck. You are not good. You absolutely suck. Our options in center make Ryan Langerhans look like an All-Star. Josh Anderson might deserve a middling career as a defensive backup, and Gregor Blanco could be useful as a fifth OF/pinch runner on a good team, but those guys are STARTING. Is Xavier Nady better than Josh Anderson? Yeah. Sure. Pry the corpse of Jim Edmonds off the frying pan and he’d out play Anderson too. That doesn’t mean either of those guys is *GOOD*. Better than horrible doesn’t equal good.
What do you really think, Sam?
Sam- Anderson and Blanco are good enough to be quality 4th OFs or 8-hole everyday CFs for winning teams. I’m not saying that makes them great shakes starting in LF and hitting leadoff. I’m just saying they’re not worthless.
With a power bat in LF and a willingness to bench Frenchy, this OF could be decent enough to be carried by the infield and pitching staff (<– now the strength of the team).
Just signed on to say that there is a new addition to the Braves Nation. My daughter was born at 10:30 last night at 6 1bs 12 oz.
And just to add to my excitement, I find that we have signed both Kawakami and Lowe. Go Braves!
Congrats Joshua!
A grumpy Sam is better than no Sam.
Hey Joshua, congrats!! Good to know there is another new father here. I hope everything goes well for you guys.
Congratulations Joshua!! It is good to know that Braves Nation has a new member.
An old friend sent my 6 month old son a gift–Braves’ baby clothes….its never too young!
Congratulations again!
Dix at 231,
You didn’t say who, but because I have advocated Swisher over Abreu, I will now explain.
Swisher’s 3 year average OPS is 800. Abreu’s is around 850. Swisher’s 3 year includes an extremely unlucky 2008. (incidentally, Swisher is about 1 or 2 OPS points HIGHER than Nady over the last three years). With normal aging patterns, Swisher at 28 should gain, Abreu at 34 should drop. Overall, offense goes to Abreu, but by a surprisingly thin thread.
Abreu is noted as one of the worst right fielders in all of MLB by most of the defensive metrics. Swisher is “so so” in center, plus in left and right. The ability to play center gives us options to cover up how bad Blanco and Anderson hit against lefties. Abreu CANNOT play center (he can’t play right and he would probably be bad in left on all tools other than throwing arm).
Swisher is better against lefthanded pitching, which is the second biggest problem with this team’s offense (after Cox’s mismangement by bunt and AHEAD of general lack of power BECAUSE IT IS POWER AGAINST LEFTIES, that is the power problem). Abreu has almost no ISO against lefties.
Swisher will cost 21 million over the next 3 years on a slightly increasing scale. You don’t want to go 3 years on Abreu and I don’t believe he will be signed for less than 10 a year, 2 year minimum. Also on cost, I am pretty sure this year Swisher is 5.5. That means if we get Swisher, we “might” have enough room to get an Abreu or Dunn, too (particularly if the market continues to stall).
Swisher is as good offensively as Nady at a lower cost and better defensively. He is better defensively than Abreu, Dunn, or Dye and far more versatile. Swisher is the cheapest of all of these prospective outfielders and at numbers that aren’t scary out to his whole contract (when I found out about “mutual option” on Dye, I had to swallow a little. Basically, if you get good Dye, he is here for one year. If you get bad Dye, you can get rid of him, but then you have to find somebody.)
As an alternative to Swisher, I propose Ludwick. Or, maybe signing Dunn or Abreu and going after Nelson Cruz. Texas wants and needs pitching. Morton or Reyes ought to have a shot at bringing back Cruz (who is blocked over there).
Is there a convenient tool or site that shows who must be on a 25 man roster at the end of spring training or else be waived? I am curious about the Braves (I think we have several, maybe Stockman, Lerew, Boyer) and also about these other guys (like the Rangers with Cruz). I really think we need to deal some of that secondary talent anyway.
Congrats, Joshua! Welcome to the club!
That’s awesome Joshua. Congratulations
Olney has a new link up about the offseason. Says we should have signed Cabrera and traded for Peavy because (in a nutshell) Peavy is better than Lowe and Lowe is actually costing more.
I usually like Olney’s writing, but for him to ignore the cost to the farm in the potential Peavy deal and the additional cost (plus opportunity cost) of signing Cabrera seems like an unusual oversight. Granted he make some points, but I don’t feel that anything we’ve done is indefensible. Plus, I’m feeling semi-confident we can get 750 IP from our top 4 starters, and there’s something to be said for that.
Congrats to the new dads.
And put me down as glad we still have Escobar. So is Derek Lowe.
Is Cruz really blocked? I thought losing Bradley meant there was room for Cruz.
I usually like Buster Olney, but I think he gets it all wrong in this piece: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3831815&name=olney_buster
First, I don’t think the Peavy talks were much more complex (and never as close) as he makes them out to be. And the difference between Boyer and Locke is not the trifling matter he makes it out to be.
Plus, he notes that the Braves outbid other teams on Lowe and Kawakami. Really, Buster, is that the way free agency works? Players take the highest offer? Huh.
Edit: Ethan, great minds . . .
Not to mention that the Padres wanted the Braves’ starting shortstop in the deal.