I was of the opinion, early in 2005, that Hampton had turned the corner and was about to become a good pitcher again, probably for several years. He wasn’t striking anyone out, but his control had gotten much better, walking fewer men and pitching more efficiently (the lowest pitches per inning of his career) and he was getting a bunch of ground balls, metamorphosing into a “Tommy John-type pitcher”. So, ironically enough, he goes down and needs Tommy John surgery.
What usually happens to players coming off TJ surgery is that their velocity is up but they have control problems in their first season back, but are back to themselves (if they ever will be) in their second season. Hampton is an unusual case, because he could have pitched late in the season last year but the Braves left him on the DL (to collect a full insurance payment). So, will Hampton be like a pitcher in his first season back, or in his second season? I’ve no idea. If I had to guess, he’ll start off wild but his progress will be accelerated. Don’t forget that Hampton also needed knee surgery, which he had put off for a couple of years but was able to have during his time off.
So, there are lots of projections out there. Here is a WAG: 27 G, 158 IP, 88 K, 65 BB, 10-6, 4.15 ERA.
If Hampton pitches anywhere as near as well as your projection, it is going to be a special year for the Braves. I’d take any era under 5 and a non-losing record from Mike. Smoltz, James, Hudson, Hampton could be a new fab 4 if all goes right. I can’t wait for the season to start, so we can find out.
The thing that scares me about the rotation is what happens if someone is injured or just can’t cut it. Hampton worries me. Davies really worries me. And though I like James, young guys can struggle before they finally hit their stride. There is no one ready to step onto the big-league club as a starter. I guess Lerew is the closest candidate, but he hasn’t shown he’s anywhere close to ready. So, I guess the back-up plan is Strurtze, Vulture, and Cormier. At least the pen is stronger.
We could try and get Cory Lidel. Oh wait…
JC–I completely agree. Hampton will probably be OK, but our starters are awfully thin. Since Lerew seems to have a confidence problem (and with some reason), I would not bring him until the second half of the season–no matter how well he pitches. A few injuries could produce some dramatic effects: it would not surprise me to see the Braves finding themselves trying to get by with Kevn Barry and the bullpen….
JC,
you can add Matt Harrison to the list of potential call ups, although i doubt he’ll see any action until after the all-star break
Smiity,
We could get him but i hear his velocity, after reaching an all time high at the end of his last season, is gone…it may be terminal.
😉
That’s a pretty optimistic projection for Hampton. His K rate was all the way down to 4.0 in 2004, which is dangerous terrain, and was only at 3.2 in 2005. PECOTA’s got him at 4.2 K/9, which I’d say is fair. You’ve got him at 5.0. You’ve also got his K/BB staying the same.
I’d say we should be hoping for 130+ IP of 4.8-5 ERA ball. That would certainly have value(it’s 130 innings that we don’t have to give to Jorge Sosa or Lance Cormier).
Also, I could write paragraphs on the perception that Kyle Davies is an inferior pitcher to Chuck James. That’s just absurd.
Bad taste.
guys, that’s really not that cool to be talking about…
Harrison could be there by mid-summer and I really hope that he does not get `devined’ by the Braves rushing him before he is ready…
sorry, i agree.
It must be time for pitchers & catchers, because I’ve run out of things to say…
Sorry to be shameless, but it’s always struck me that the day pitchers and catchers report to mini-camp for most teams is the same day as Valentine’s Day–so I wrote a post on my blog about it. If you click on my name you can read it. It’s at the top of the page.
Personally, I think JS did a good job this offseason by FINALLY address the bullpen issue. This rotation cries out for help from a great bullpen. On the other hand, this year’s rotation is better than last year’s one…wait, did the Braves even had a rotation last year?
Last year, the Braves had neither a good rotation not a good bullpen. At least this year the Braves will have a good bullpen. Also, a pitching staff without Reitsma, HoRom, Sosa, and Kolb is already a great improvement!!!
Guys, a little sensitivity, please.
JC, I agree. As jazzed as I am about the the lineup and the bullpen I am as concerned about the rotation. Lots of question marks, no sure things. The best thing that John Schuerholz did this winter was build the bullpen from the back end. We have a chance now because we may be asking our starters to go only 6 innings.
I’m terrified of Hampton, and it has nothing to do with the injury. Losing Furcal is going to hurt him just as much (actually, probably more) than it hurt Hudson. If he gets lucky with the GIDPs, he might be effective, but I actually think TPJ might net us more runs with Hampton in than Renteria. TPJ being off the 25 for Woodward is probably going to end up being my only complaint about this year’s roster.
Anyhow, here’s hoping Hampton gets the ball to bounce his way. Who knows. Some added velocity might make a big difference as well.
Another Alex – Excellent writing!!
Trey Hodges, who is at Camp Roger right now, would be a reasonable candidate to be an emergency fifth starter. He spent last season in Japan.
—
Anyone else read Chipper’s comments in the AJC last weekend? He basically said “I worked out hard last winter and ate right, and still got hurt. I don’t need to work out or eat right any more.” I guess no one ever told Chipper that correlation does not equal causation. Uh oh…
The reality is that Hampton is 34 years old, coming back from major injuries, doesn’t have Leo Mazzone around anymore, and will have a crappy infield defense behind him. If he does well it’ll be quite the miracle, though I’ll be pulling for him to be effective.
The Braves are in their rebuilding years now. It’ll be a great accident if we can compete this year, thought hey can do so if everything breaks their way. But we need to be ready for mediocrity, and unfortunately I think our defense will be a large part of that.
I don’t I am not a big Hampton fan. His lack of strikeouts since joining the Braves has always bothered me. Even though he has had periods of effectiveness, I always thought he had very little margin for error, especially since he has shown less than pinpoint control. Obviously, he has shown an ability to be an effective pitcher in the past, I tend to be skeptical about him at best, especially with this infield.
Sheeeeeeesh, all you mopey Mirandas out there need to lighten up about Hampton. All we need is an average year from him. The defense should be good enough to give him average.
Mike Hampton = The Great Unknown.
AAR;
Great elephant picture!
I’m even beginning to associate Speed Week in Daytona with both Spring Training and Valentine’s Day. With the Braves centered in Orlando, it can make a great vacation week to visit that area.
Thanks, Kevin and MGL!
The way I feel about Mike Hampton is the way I felt about John Thomson for large parts of the last few years. Occasionally brilliant, usually mediocre, occasionally appalling. At his best, Hampton OUGHT to be better than Thomson, but generally they were both groundball pitchers without a strikeout pitch and who had a tendency to leave balls up in the zone, and then to get discouraged and pitch worse whenever something bad happened.
I think Hampton could have a good year if he gets insane amounts of run support and doesn’t feel so bad about himself every time something goes wrong. But our infield defense sure won’t help much, unless we bring back Glenn Hubbard as a late-inning defensive replacement.
John Thomson has never had the Cy Young-quality years Mike Hampton has had. I would have to say Mike Hampton is much better than John Thomson.
I think Mike Hampton can be a great pitcher again. It’s not like it’s someone like John Thomson coming back who had no previous great seasons. Hopefully it will be this year, but I don’t know.
I think it’s way too early to expect much from Matt Harrison, especially for the upcoming season. I hope that the Braves have learned their lesson about rushing pitching prospects (which strangely seemed not to apply to Chuck James) and that he stays down for the whole year.
I would like to add that overall I don’t dislike the Braves team. But I do tend to worry about, and therefore discuss, what can go wrong. We haven’t had a starting corps this thin in some time.
Umm.. what about last year? I mean, don’t get me wrong, Lance Cormier is a top-tier starter and everything…
I discuss Harrison in the “Other Starting Possibilities” entry coming on Thursday. It wouldn’t totally surprise me if he wound up in the rotation, but there’s no reason to rush a guy just to be a fifth starter.
Mmmmh
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article_perspectives.jsp?ymd=20070204&content_id=1794149&vkey=perspectives&fext=.jsp
You read it here first …
3) Hampton will resurface in Atlanta as the first dual winner of the Comeback Player of the Year and Cy Young awards.
that’s aiming a little high. I’d be happy with just the comeback award.
BTW, considering that Smoltz will most likely pitch better than Hampton, how does that guy predicts us 3rd place with a rotation of 2 cy young caliber pitchers ?
Wow…A writer for mlb.com goes on the record predicting Mike Hampton to win the 2007 NL Cy Young award? That is one of the most foolish things I have read in a long time.
I think a lot of people will pick Atlanta 3rd, but that Hampton thing…someone spiked that writer’s orange juice with microdots. That’s like picking a Browns-Cardinals Super Bowl.
Nats: 1%
Marlins: 9%
Braves: 28%
Phillies: 28%
Mets: 34%
So yeah. It should be close. But I’ll believe Philly’s got decent pitching (outside of Hamels) when I see it.
oh, yeah, the above are %chance of winning the NL east, IMO.
Ladies and gentlemen, your Cincinnati Reds:
“Right-hander Aaron Harang agreed to a four-year, $36.5 million deal Tuesday, making him the Cincinnati Reds’ highest-paid pitcher.” Here’s the full details. The depressing part of this story is that even though I nearly spit out my coffee when I saw Harang is about to be paid $9 million a year, he’ll still probably be better than Tim Hudson this year, and he’s a relative bargain in this market.
I think everyone except for the Nationals has a decent shot at the NL East this year.
Bobby Cox seems to really like Matt Harrison. And O’Brien says in his most recent blog entry that the Braves think Harrison is the real deal and he could easily be on the team sometime this year, though unlikely on the team to start the season.
Somebody correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t Harrison pretty much just like Chuck James?
I think Hampton is the key to this season. I feel good about Smoltz as a #1 and Hudson and James as the 3/4 starters. If Hampton is our #2 starter we’ll be in good shape. If he is our number 4 we’ve got problems.
As to what happens, I figure the mlb.com writers prediction is as good as any, who knows…
Nope. Harrison is more of a control artist. His K rate spiked up late last year, as he added some velocity, but he gets by on control and getting lots of groundballs. sounds familiar?
Hampton might be a canidate for the come back award, but Cy Young?
I doubt it.
There is a great history of pitchers who have been average at best throughout their career coming off knee and elbow surgery at the age of 33 and winning the Cy Young. Don’t be so negative. GO BRAVES!!! WOOO!!!OUR RIGHTFIELDER SELLS LOTS OF JEANS!!
I don’t wanna go out in a limb that far, but I think I’m gonna go ahead and guess Mr. Swings @ Everything isn’t too fond of Mr. Francouer.
Oh, and just so you know, I just bought a pair of 34-30 loose fit boot cuts from Francouer’s line of jeans. Cost me $125. It was so worth it!!
What is it with irration Francoeur hatred? I know his OBP sucks, but sheesh.
Francouer has a line of jeans? WTF?! I’m guessing that this is an Atlanta area advertisement cause I haven’t seen anything like it in the DC area . . ..
It’s a Moneyball reference.
BILLY BEANE: We’re not selling jeans here.
They were, I believe, discussing Jeremy Brown at the time. The scouts were, in fact, right — Brown (who is still very fat) can’t play Major League Baseball. The point, however, is valid; too many players are judged not on what they do but on what they look like in a uniform.
Sale near done?
Word among baseball officials in recent days is that the sale is moving closer to completion, maybe reaching that point in the next month or so. Opening day is April 1. To paraphrase Yogi Berra, it’s not done until it’s done, but both seller and buyer want to do it and expect to do it.
The primary reason the deal has taken so long to consummate is its tax ramifications and the necessary involvement of the Internal Revenue Service, which never seems to do anything quickly. The chairman of Liberty Media, John Malone, doesn’t like to pay taxes. No, make that he won’t pay taxes, capital gains taxes. He calls his policy tax efficiency, though it’s really tax avoidance.
In that regard, Malone isn’t much different from any other citizen, but unlike most, Malone can avoid paying taxes because he has so much money at his disposal. His tax avoidance is entirely legal and, in fact, has I.R.S. sanction.
That part of Moneyball was really cool. They’re about to start the draft and they’re talking about these players that are now studs. Of course Jeremy Brown was not, but I believe they were talking about Mark Teahan, Nick Swisher, etc. Do I have that right? I read the book five years ago, so I may have the names mixed up.
But still, if Jeff had jeans, I’d buy them. Especially if he had already worn them. Oh my goodness, he looks so good.
KIDDING!!!
But yeah, I don’t hate Jeff Francouer. His hack-away attitude is frustrating, but he’s REALLY fun to watch. He may be a league average player at this point, but he brings in a lot of revenue dollars which influences our payroll, so there’s an intangible plus that he brings.
The same goes for how I used to like Otis Nixon. Uglier than crap, almost totally one-dimensional, but he was really fun to watch. Same with Juan Pierre, Eric Byrnes, and John Rocker. Fun to watch.
I agree with others. If we got that line out of Hampton, I’d be overwhelmingly ecstatic.
I will tell you when Francouer crossed the line for me. I was at a home game against Milwaukee last year. Some guy was on the mound making Charlie Sheen look like Greg Maddux. Two Braves had already walked including the previous batter to Francouer who walked on 4 pitches (the details are a bit fuzzy now but I remember that for sure). Our Jordache (rhymes with Gord Ash OMGLOL) model steps up and strikes out swinging on 3 pitches, the last two of which were in the LEFT HANDED BATTERS BOX. It is one thing to suck, it is another thing entirely to give me an aneurysm in the process of doing it.
I know exactly what game you’re talking about. Here is part of the recap of that game written by Mac Thomason:
Can Dan Kolb throw a pitch so bad that Jeff Francoeur won’t swing at it?
Cordero may not have thrown a strike in the inning and a third he pitched. He walked Andruw to load them up and then McCann to score a run. Then Francoeur ejected Barry from the doghouse with, possibly, the worst at-bat anyone has ever had. As time goes on, it becomes more and more likely that Jeff Francoeur is just plain stupid. Quotes from the game thread:
“That was the WORST Frenchy at bat I have seen all year and that’s saying a LOT.” — Alex R.
“I thought I was exaggerating, but that really could have been 6 1/2 feet off the plate. Like, really.” — Rob Cope
“[I]t’s not surprising, but it’s definitely frustrating. Doesn’t seem like there’s any thought at all going into those at bats by him.” — Jonathan
Here is what happened. After a four-pitch walk to Andruw, and a bases-loaded walk to McCann, Cordero clearly was struggling. Do you think that maybe, just maybe, you might want to take a pitch or two? Not if you’re Francoeur. The first pitch was around the ankles; Francoeur popped it up out of play. The next two pitches were sliders in the lefthanded batters box. He swung and missed both.
http://www.braves.net/bravesjournal/?p=2583
I had somehow managed to block out that the previous 4 pitch walk WALKED IN A RUN!!!!! Pardon me while I go on a tri-state killing spree now. I just hope they lock me up somewhere that I can get the Braves on the radio.
Hampton! A thousand emotions crowded on my mind. But I want to thank C.James, wasn’t brilliant , who helped the braves every time they need a time.
I won’t make a hasty conclusion about them. Just I’d like to watch to the end.
Wow, I remember that game really well. Haha, and yeah, it really could have been 6 1/2 feet off the plate. Just the work from the catcher just to glove it said it all.
That may be the epitome of Francouer’s inability to control the strike zone, but everyone can have a terrible at bat, I say. Let’s see what he does this year. I’d have to say that even if his defense improves slightly and his walk rate increases at the rate it did in the second half, I’d take it.
Heh. I actually remember listening to that on the radio. Frenchy comes up and I’m like, “Awsome, they’re going to give the game back to us! Surely Francoeur will recognize that Cordero is struggling and will make him throw a strike or two. I mean, that’s what any reasonable person would do, right?”
He proceeds to strike out on three straight and the Braves lose. That one really hurt.
Hey, I’ll take any sign of improvement from Frenchy. The problem is, I figure he’s going to become a very good player right at the end of his arbitration time, meaning we’ll have had him cheap while he sucked and have to shell out the big bucks (perhaps we’ll have big bucks to shell out 2 or 3 years from now? :-D) to keep him around while he’s good. ‘Course, at that point, nearly every current contract will be off the books, and the team will likely look somewhat different.
If a 1-4 starter were to go down, I would hope Soriano gets a shot. If Davies is really hurting you in the 5th spot, go with Cormier or another shlub who can eat innings.
I get the sense that we were generally happy when Mac went through the offense, but now that we’re looking at the pitchers, there is a sense the proposed infield defense is a problem.
Of topic: The wikipedia.org entry fro Mark Lemke introduces the wonderful fact that the internet cartoon character Homestar Runner is named after a unknowing friend’s nickname for the Lemmer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Lemke
Braves’ Hall of Famer, Lew Burdette died today. He was 80 years old.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2756553
Lew had three big wins in Milwaukee’s 1957 WS over the Yankees. RIP, Mr. Burdette.
I know a guy who went to high school with Lemke & said he was a helluva basketball player, too. Said he could dunk.
Great Burdette quote:
“I exploit the greed of all hitters.”
Maddux and Glavine could have said the same thing.
Mark Gordon,
You are correct. There is some truth to it, but I choose not to worry about it, because one, there’s no point to it, and two, it could be just pulling our hair out for nothing. Then what? We’d be stupid and bald.
My condolences to the Burdette family as well.
What a great piece of trivia, Nevin. Nice catch!
Three complete game wins in the ’57 Series, the last two shutouts over Whitey Ford and Don Larsen. You won’t see that again anytime soon. (The thing is, Lew actually hadn’t had a great season- his ERA was above league average despite a shiny 17-9 record- but he chose a great time to have the week of his life.)
Ah, for the days when pitchers actually could go more than six innings and games didn’t last 4 hours.