Here’s something to think about… It is possible that Danny Kolb and Chris Reitsma could keep John Smoltz out of the Hall of Fame. Smoltz very easily could have won a Cy Young Award either of the last two seasons with any decent bullpen support. He still led the league in wins last season (with only 16) but had several leads blown for him, and stayed in other games too long because of the well-grounded fear of the bullpen. If the relief had been decent, he probably would have won 19, maybe 20.
John’s ERA went up from 3.06 to 3.49, but that is largely luck. He struck out 211 men, 42 more than in 2005, but more balls landed fair on him this time. He did allow a few more homers, nothing to be concerned about, and his control was steady. There is no reason for short-term concern about Smoltz; long-term, he’s about to turn 40 and he can’t last forever. Presumably.
Only one of John’s top ten most-comparable pitchers through age 39 is in the Hall, and since that’s Phil Niekro he’s not really a fit comparison. However, two pitchers with similar stats to him now are in, Dazzy Vance and Don Drysdale. I feel pretty comfortable in saying that he’s better than either, but neither is really up to Hall of Fame standards.
I am confident that Smoltz will continue to pitch impressively (possibly in multiple roles) for the forseeable future. I also see him in the HOF even if he doesn’t…
I have to believe Smoltz will be in the Hall, too. Keep in mind that his postseason numbers should put him ahead of all of those guys on his “Most Similar” list.
I agree. As long as the arm holds up there is no reason to expect anything less from Smoltz. Now, the rest of the staff…….
Not to mention that no one on his list of comparables has his save totals, and the memory of his being a truly fearsome closer will also help tip the scales in his favor, I think. But it is truly a disturbing thought that Reitsma and Kolb could be what prevents him from getting over the hump and into the Hall… Lord have mercy…
I think that most writers will copare him to Eck, find that while his closing career wasn’t as impressive as Eck’s overall, he was just as dominant in his short time at the position, and that his starting career was far more impressive than Eck’s. Add in the post-season considerations, the fact that he was one of the Big Three for the great Braves teams — and the last one in a Braves uniform to boot — and he will make it fairly comfortably.
The thing about Smoltz is that there aren’t really any good “comps” except maybe Eckersly, but Eck spent way more time as a reliever, so even that one doesn’t work….
I dunno. IMO, his uniqueness is one of the reasons I think Smoltz is qualified for the Hall. No other player (well, maybe one other, kinda) dominated the game both as a starter and as a closer.
No other player pitched well as a starter after being a top-notch reliever and a sometimes top-notch starter.
Starter-reliever-starter. No one in baseball has done that to any degree of success like Smoltz has.
He will get in. Maybe not on the first ballot, but it shouldn’t take too many years. His combined body of work as a starter, closer, and in the playoffs is just too strong to ignore.
smoltzie is a lock for the hall- gonna get 200 wins, over 150 saves, big game pitcher-big part of one of the best rotations in the past 40 years of baseball. reporters (voters) also love the guy. that will help.
Anyone want Smoltz extended now so he can play his final two or three years as a Brave and retire here? It would really hurt to see him finish as a Yankee.
It’s February. You can just feel the pitchers and catchers reporting now.
Dan,
Who says he’ll finish as a Yankee? That’ll mean he’s just pitching for the money.
In a way, I feel sorry for the guy. Throughout the nineties he was our #3 starter, completely overshadowed by Mad Dog and Glavine. Many other clubs would have taken him as their Ace.
Then, when Maddux and Glavine leave and he gets his time to shine, the bullpen can’t help him out. The guy just can’t get a break.
Makes me wonder, if he would have remained a closer would his HOF chances increase? Just a thought. Still, I like him and feel he helps the team out more as a starter.
If it was my call, which obviously it isn’t, then I put him in the Hall. Smoltz has one of the better postseason resumes out there. Besides his Postseason stats, here is something interesting for you:
from 2001-2005 (Smoltz was out 2000) the Braves postseason is record is 11-16. During that same time span Smoltz’ postseason record is 3-0. He also logged 3 saves. Of those 11 games the Braves won during those 5 years, Smoltz pitched in 10 of them.
Somebody may want to recheck those numbers for me but I think they are right.
The fact that Smoltz pitched in 10 of the 11 wins I don’t think means too incredibly much (he was a closer for part of the time and is only “supposed” to pitch when the team is up) but I think this reveals something to us about what Smoltz means to this team.
I think he gets an extension before the season starts
different topic, but WOW…
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,249326,00.html
I think Smoltz will gain extra HOF support due to pitching in the greatest rotation in history, sort of the same way a marginal guy like Tony Perez got in because he was an integral part of such a legendary lineup.
I also think pitching for the Braves his entire career will help. I remember Bill James, when writing about Darrell Evans, listed factors that make a player overrated or underrated, and according to this list one of the things that inflates our memory of a player is when they play their whole career with one team.
I think Smoltz will get in, but if he’s not there yet, two things would help:
1) more time as a closer. If he finishes with 150 wins and 300 saves, he’s automatic.
2) pitching in New York (for the Yankees) or Boston. Big media cities push him over the top even if he finishes with 175 wins and 150 saves.
That said, I still think he gets in as a combined threat–starter, reliever, and big game pitcher. And I hope he stays in Atlanta.
2) pitching in New York (for the Yankees) or Boston. Big media cities push him over the top even if he finishes with 175 wins and 150 saves.
I’ve read this or a variation all the time. But is it remotely true? Since the 1950s, who are the players who wouldn’t have been in the Hall but were because they played in New York or Boston? Don Mattingly is every bit as qualified as Kirby Puckett. Jim Rice a darn good comp for Tony Perez. And it certainly hasn’t been a help in MVP / Cy Young voting or Justin Morneau wouldn’t be carrying Derek Jeter’s trophy around. Just because ESPN shows a lot of Yanks / Sox games on the TV doesn’t mean that their players have done well in awards.
Maybe ExxonMobil can buy the Braves. We could then easily have a payroll of about $450 million.
Marc,
Yeah, but then we’d get people boycotting the Braves because they’re now an associate of Big Oil.
So Sam, we can’t sell out a playoff game. If that happened we would have an excuse.
I hate to repeat the canard about Atlanta being a bad baseball town because we don’t always sell out the stadium for playoff games, but… well… what’s the difference between being boycotted because you’re owned by Big Oil, and having fans just not show up at the ballpark because not enough people in the city care as much as the people on this blog?
At least if we had a $450 million payroll we might make it out of the division series.
Smitty, sorry I didn’t read your post first. I just said exactly what you said. Anyway, yeah. You’re right.
csg,
On a related note…
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0489037/
Fantastic movie.
I think if Smoltz ever left, he’d be more likely to end up in Detroit. The Tigers will be competitive for the next few years, and they don’t appear to fear spending money (Sheffield, Ordonez, etc.).
Dale Murphy is not in the HOF. Does that make him any less of a player? I couldn’t care less what a bunch of brain dead sportswriters think about my favorite players. I’m sure making the Hall would matter alot to John though so I hope he gets there.
for any basketball guru’s…
would you trade…
Gordon, Carter, and Boozer (out 4-6)
for
Kevin Martin, Stoudamire, and Caron Butler?
csg, yes
You’re getting the Martin combo?
Stoudamire (Damon) or Stoudemire (Amare)? If it’s the latter, yes….if it’s the former, heaven have mercy on the poor doofus who offered you that trade.
Sorry, its Amare Stoudemire
speaking of Basketball, try 7’9
http://msn.foxsports.com/other/story/6429134
Can we skip over the remaining pitchers and move to the bullpen? I don’t want to avoid this place for a while…
from Mlb rumors…
Pirates Sign Tony Armas Jr.
Pirates GM Dave Littlefield announced today that the team has signed righty Tony Armas Jr. to a one-year deal with a club option for ’08. The move should thankfully push Shawn Chacon out of the rotation.
It’s hard to believe Armas would represent an improvement in anyone’s rotation after posting a 5.03 ERA in 154 innings last year in a National League pitchers’ park. Basically the one thing Armas has going for him is that he’s on the right side of 30. And he was traded for Pedro once. I can’t imagine this cost more than $3MM.
CSG,
I wouldn’t…but then again…Ben Gordon is probably my favorite Huskie of all-time and Vince Carter is my favorite NBA player and has been for many years…so yeah…don’t take my advice 😉
Well, gee, the Braves could be boycotted both for Big Oil and for having an offensive nickname. But ExxonMobil could get fans to go the games by giving away gasoline.
Jay, yeah, I cant take your advice on this one…
Marc, you’re on to something
Was Smoltz injured in 1994? His innings were low that year….Would you say his best year was 96,98, or 02?
Smoltz had some injuries but the main problem that year was the strike.
Ah, good point…always forget about that
@ 23
is it just me or does Mel Gibson look like Sadam in one of the photos on that page?
good film
It’s worth noting that Tony Armas’s line from last year was better than the “average” #5 MLB starter. I think the signing was a good one by the Pirates. The NL Central might be pretty competitive (well, at least amongst itself…) next year.
beedee,
Yes, or else an old testament Angry God (with sinners in hand or something like that).
It was absolutely hilarious when Gibson popped up on the big screen, as it was completely unexpected. I also saw it just after he had the drunken traffic stop debacle, so everyone in the theater started laughing. He’s just sort of an intensely psychotic dude. Really amusing.
Ouch, how can you forget about the strike?
Smoltz is a future Hall of Famer.
Not that it would necessarily impact voters, but for some reason Maddux & Glavine were always hated by non-Brave fans, but people always went out of their way to offer respect to Smoltz. And that came from his post-season performances.
What can you say? The guy is one of the greatest Braves of all time. We’re lucky he’s still taking the field for Atlanta.
Regarding #35:
’96 was easily the best year Smoltz had. As Leo Mazzone said in his book, Tales from the Braves mound, Smoltz almost won 30 games in 1996. 24 during the regular season. He also won 4 in the postseason and he won the Allstar game, thats 29.
Not that wins mean a whole lot as a pitcher but to me thats incredible.
I told my mother this spring that I had John Smoltz in my fantasy league. She said, “Yeah – so do I.”
I don’t think we were talking about the same thing…
There’s a sad “story in today’s NY Times about former Pats LB Ted Johnson, who’s only been out of the game for two years and seems headed for post-concussion Alzheimer’s.
Whoops, here’s the link, I hope.
So, I met Brett Myer’s wife today. They’re from Jacksonville, and his wife was at my Best Buy purchasing a laptop and potentially a camera (must be pretty easy when her husband had signed a $25M extension hours before). It was weird because her ring was HUGE, and when I asked what her husband did for a living, she said that he was a professional baseball player. After she told me it was Brett Myers, you can imagine what ran through my head: “Oh yeah, Brett Myers. He was facing charges for domestic battery… uh oh.”
I think she kinda knew what I was thinking, so I asked how things are going (I mean, what the heck do you say when that’s really the only thing you know about the guy?). She of course knew EXACTLY what I was talking about (apparently this is something she has to deal with a lot), and she said that the whole thing was just some nosy cameramen (her exact words) and that it was nothing. I surely hope she was telling the truth because that is much more pleasant. It was cool because I had already been talking to her for a while, so we were cool enough that I talked a little trash about Brett. And when he called her, I had the opportunity to tell him to ask to be traded to the Braves so he could win a World Series. 🙂
I don’t think I’ll ever talk trash like that to a professional baseball player. Good thing he was in Philadelphia.
Oh, and she was a sharp girl when it came to baseball. She was happy they unloaded Bobby Abreu (she really knew the economics of the Phillies), realized that her husband was probably a third starter at this point, but surprised me when she said Brett actually LIKES pitching in the Phillie’s ballpark. She was also glad that Ed Wade was gone. All in all, she was fun to talk to during the hour I was selling her her computer, ringing it out, and waiting for Geek Squad to install her software.
One would think they could afford better than Geek Squad..
I have to think that despite the Kolb/Reitsma explosions the last 2 seasons, Smoltzie will get in.
I am also still hopeful that when Glavine and Maddux go in, they do so with Braves uniforms. I am more confident these days on Mad Dog because his return to the Cubs was shortened and he’s now been a Dodger and will be a Padre in 2007 (which I am happy for him considering he now lives in San Diego).
Rob Cope…wow, cool story about Myers’ wife. Now this is only my assumption since you were there and none of the rest of us were, but I think even if Brett did hit his wife (and that’s what was reported), I don’t think she’s going to talk about it to any stranger (as nice as you may have been at the time and sounds like you two had a fun chat) she’s probably going to deny it to strangers who aren’t best friends or close family members.
If John pitches 5 more years averaging 15 wins a season, he’ll have over 260 wins and with his save total that will put him in the hall of fame for sure. Heck if he pitches 4 more years and gets close to 250 wins, he’ll be a lock for the HOF.
People resented the perception that Maddux and Glavine got under benefits from umpires calling outside strikes. Smotz’s dominance was more obvious and power pitchers have more prestige anyway.
The story about Ted Johnson just shows what tools a lot of these coaches are and just how little the NFL cares about the players. The NFL gets away with murder (almost literally maybe) while baseball gets bashed for anything that happens.