Somebody get this man some Pictures, please. All he did last year was hit .327, including hits in ten consecutive at-bats at one point. For his pains, he is apparently going to be relegated to pinch-hit duties. Sure, he doesn’t have a great deal of power, and he doesn’t walk much, and he strikes out four times as often as he walks, and he doesn’t run or field all that well, but the man hit .327 and that covers for a lot of ills.
That .327 is not a fluke. His averages in AAA the last three seasons are .371 in 2005, .332 in 2004, and .328 in 2003. I think it’s pretty safe to say that he is a legitimate .320-.330 range hitter. Awful walk rate, about the same as Francoeur, but was hit by pitches nine times last year (tied with Francoeur for second on the team) which combined with his batting average — .327, if I didn’t mention it — produced a .364 OBP. Only hit seven homers, but fifteen doubles and four triples produced a respectable .475 SLG. He has no future to speak of, since he turns 29 in March, but for right now is the Braves’ best corner outfield option.
Diaz’s range factors in left field are very good, even though he looked lost. Kelly Johnson’s 2005 factors were also very good. I suspect that there is some sort of context situation here, but if you’re going to have a bad defender I’d rather he be in left than anywhere else. Diaz is not one of the five worst Atlanta Braves left fielders defensively… Stole five bases, but was caught five times. Nothing new, the Braves stole the fewest bases in the league last year. Interestingly, the only Braves last year to beat 70 percent on SBs were the two Joneses — and McCann.
Little known fact: Diaz hit .327 last year. You ought to have mentioned that somewhere in your writeup.
Yeah I was wondering what his batting average was last year, I wish Mac would have said something
His first couple of cups of coffee at the major league level were before his vision improvement (Braves optomestrist diagnosed awful depth perception and prescribed new contacts). These earlier stints were plagued by bad fielding and by a terrible split against right handers.
However, as of spring 06, we have the “can see” version of Diaz. He seemed to hit line drives every time he hit the ball. He commented during his streak that a lot of guys that he played minor league ball with were surprised that he wasn’t hitting more home runs. I know why. Nobody but Hank Aaron ever hit many home runs off of screaming liners.
I expect his ISO and ISO OBP to rise a little, batting average to drop a little. PECOTA probably has him about right, but maybe low on SLG.
My thought is for money reasons, JS will want to hold him and play him enough to protect his value. IF Diaz and Langerhans both get it together, then roster problems may abound. if we are out of the race, Wilson will be traded. If we are in it, Cox would shoot JS for letting any of these guys get away without something more important coming back.
I don’t think the range factor is off. I think Diaz is somewhat of an outfield version, light (or heavy) of the early Furcal (without the cannon arm). That is, he is going to miss some easy ones, but get to a lot of balls nonetheless (not as many as Langerhans, but more than Wilson). He runs hard and kid of fast for a big guy.
From Ken Rosenthal’s latest on FoxSports.com:
A National League G.M. says of the Braves, “People jumped off the bandwagon too soon. Even before the (LaRoche) trade, they were underestimated. They were a very good run-scoring team last year. They fixed their glaring weakness – the bullpen. And the rotation is OK. They’ll have Chucky James the whole year. (Tim) Hudson should be better. And Smoltz is Smoltz. There really isn’t any weakness.”
Well we all know that there is a weakness, and that it’s infield defense. However, the strengths are more than enough to outshadow it. I’m really looking forward to the season.
Diaz is less an outfielder than the sort of guy who’s really just a bat for the bench who can occasionally pick up a glove. There was a time, before 12-man pitching staffs, when every good team had someone like him on the bench for pinch-hitting and backing up 1B or LF.
Given our options, I’d just go ahead and give him the LF job until he does something to lose it.
I would give it to Langy instead, but thats just me
At least Bobby has a lot of options. Diaz/Langerhans, Wilson/Langerhans, Wilson/Thorman or maybe one of Wilson, Langerhans, or Diaz wins the LF job outright. Given his ability to put the ball in play I guess that I can live with Diaz’ lack of walks but his power or lack there of is a concern. Shoot who knows maybe Bobby will come to his senses and play someone else in right field.
Two guys that I’m really pulling for to make it are Langerhans and KJ. Kelly for obvious reasons but Langerhans because he just may be our 2008 CF.
Here is hoping we keep Diaz,Wilson and Langerhans on the 25 man roster!
And somehow I can’t see Bobby going only with Woodward and Aybar as IF backups. or a 12 man pitching roster. This is going to be an interesting decision come ST ( which can’t come soon enough ).
From the prev thread, I find Bobby’s comment very pessimistic, as he doesn’t think Frenchy is going to significantly improve his value. He is positing that Frenchy’s value lies in his power, and while he might strikeout/first pitch groundout less with time, he is never going to be a reasonably patient hitter with power. Think about that, he just put a cap on Frenchy’s potential, and given who is saying it, it is depressing
Diaz playing the field is like driving in Afganistan.
To expand on my prev post, Bobby is saying Frenchy is Russ Branyan with better defence and less patience.
Or as an old timer on Primer called him, he is the second coming of
Link didn’t work last time!
I hear Afganistan is nice this time of year…..
fine. i am not trying again.
i meant Cory Snyder. look his stats up on b-ref
I think a platoon is the best way to go. It will give both players a chance to develop, and it will let Cox play the hot hand. I like both players, and I think they can both be valuable but, for instance, it might be better to start Langerhans on days that James is pitching, where it won’t be as important when Hudson goes.
Maybe one will emerge, maybe not. Either way, starting out with a platoon seems like the right plan.
I think both Langy and Diaz are going to be very important to our success in 07. They will probably platoon, but even if one wins the outright job the other will still have an important role for our team. Yes, it will be very interesting to see how Bobby selects his players for the 25 man roster. I do see a 12 man pitching staff
@ 9. Bobby is “New Old School”. Really Old School (Ty Cobb era) was walk, bunt over, drive in. Walks were good AS A RESULT. Take signs were given with 3 balls and less than 2 strikes.
From the 20’s through the 60’s most conventional wisdom (New Old School) seemed to be “Don’t swing at bad pitches, but if you get something to hit, drive it hard.” Walks were not valued for themselves UNLESS they were obtained by a futile hitter (pitcher, bad hitting catcher or middle infielder). This is the era of the “green light.” Bobby is known as the manager that gives the green light more than anybody.
The “Bill James Era” brought about wider recognition of the value of the walk as a two edged offensive weapon, The New School. “in and of itself, it was good, PLUS if you swung at better pitches, you could hit them harder and that’s good, too” With this approach, it might not be a traditional “take sign”, but you better believe that every player knows playing time and major league roster spots are dependent on obtaining walks. Cox just doesn’t live there.
Cox is extremely positive and gets more out of everybody than seems possible. He is not going to try to “make” Francoeur change his approach. He is going to let reality sink in and see how far that goes. Besides, Cox himself doesn’t really value the walk as an offensive weapon as much as other managers. He values it as evidence that the hitter didn’t swing at something bad.
Picking up Diaz was among the least acknowledged accomplishments made by JS in recent years. Matt Diaz for Ricardo Rodriguez–that deal said as much about the Braves as did the Royals.
Diaz can really rake the ball; I would not be surprised to see him show a little more power at this stage of his career. In any case, Diaz gives Cox a good deal of flexibility at two positions. Even though Langerhans as a good glove, it would not surprise me to see Diaz win the starting LF job….
Here is hoping we keep Diaz,Wilson and Langerhans on the 25 man roster!
I think that’s basically a given.
Line-up:
KJ
Renteria
Chipper
Andruw
McCann
Francoeur
Thorman
Diaz
Bench:
Wilson, 1B/LF
Langerhans, OF
Pena, C
Aybar, 3B/2B
Pena/Woodward, SS
That is exactly how the lineup should look, Stu.
Y’know, I didn’t realize it until now when I saw Stu’s post, but the addition of Wilson means we don’t really need the uber-versatility of Woodward anymore, maybe keeping TPJ and his slick glove instead. Wilson can back up 1B, Aybar 2B and 3B, and Pena SS. He’s got no bat, but neither does Woodward. Maybe if we had traded LaRoche and not signed Wilson, we would “need” Woodward, but not now.
Big D,
Yeah, that’s basically the argument I’ve made more than once in previous threads. I’d prefer Pena’s glove and speed to Woodward’s versatility. If only we hadn’t invested $850K in Woodward…
Pirates to honor LaRoche with his own bobble-head despite currently never playing a single game with them:
http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/stories/2007/01/25/0125laroche.html
Did we really “invest” $850K in Woodward? Is the money totally guaranteed, even if, like, he doesn’t suit up for the Braves?
Chris Woodward deal –
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2704070
Tanyon Sturtze deal –
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2685240
Chris Woodward deal –
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2704070
Tanyon Sturtze deal –
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2685240
A lot off-topic, but in the ESPN.com chats they have today from the Senior Bowl David Irons from Auburn has just become my favorite non-Tennessee SEC player. He basically just spent about half of his chat cracking on his brother. It’s not lol hilarious, but it’s pretty funny nonetheless.
According to Mobile television station WALA-TV, Jacksonville has hired Mike Shula as its new quarterbacks coach. Shula was considered a candidate for a Dolphins’ staff position after interviewing for the team’s head coaching position.
Diaz’s slugging numbers in the minors were much better than I’d expected. I think he could top 20HR with plenty of extra base hits to boot.
I still think he could hit lead-off, in case KJ happens to revert back to his granite statue approach to hitting.
ermoore, that David Irons chat was outrageous. he is my new favorite player. I pray my nfl squad picks him up in the draft and his brother too. If you haven’t read the chat, you are missing out. he is too funny.
@ POST 3: “nobody but Hank Aaron hit many line drive homers”.
I know we didn’t have him long but how could you forget Gary Sheffield? I loved watching that guy hit. Freakin’ ridiculous line drive home runs with tons of backlift that oftentimes were still rising as they cleared the wall.
My feeling is that Woodward gives us an additional backup for 2B and 3B, and that’s why we’ll have him instead of TPJ. As for speed, Woodward won’t be as fast as TPJ, but I’m sure he’d be a useful guy to run for Chipper or McCann. And it’s worth noting that he’s only had one year of what you could call “successful” base-stealing, and that was still just 12 of 15 in 81 games at AAA.
Maybe it’ll be worth it if TPJ’s glove is just head and shoulders above Woodward’s (to the point where it would be useful most games to bring him in at SS with a lead), but I’m not sure he’s that awsome.
I will just mention that Hudson’s best game of the year (and probably the Braves’ high point of the season) against the Mets, April 19 when he took a no-hitter to the sixth, came with these starters:
2B PTG Orr
3B Wilson Betemit
SS L’il Tony Pena
Pena in particular was key. Hudson needs good defense, and all three of these guys showed better range than the regulars last year.
Our infield defense is a reason for concern, but I think we should give it a month or two into the season to really decide (can Hubbard do to Johnson what he did to Giles? How will Thorman play when he gets to play everyday?)
If someone had told me after the ’05 season that our infield would be Thorman, Johnson, Renteria, and Chipper with Aybar backing him up going into the 2007 season, I would have completely laughed. Remember when we were all discussing if it would be better to resign Furcal and let Giles walk a year later or let Furcal walk and resign Giles because we one had the money (and were certianly going to keep) only one? How things change…
I would think two platoons would work best. Unfortunately if it is strictly Righty Lefty, Langerhans is going to get more ABs than two players who are probably better hitters in Wilson and Diaz.
Do Thorman’s numbers in the minors indicate that he’ll struggle against lefties? (His #s from last year do.)
His BA and OBP were basically the same against lefties, but he had less power.
David Irons is one of the funniest people I’ve ever met. The day before the Florida game this year, he was out campaigning around campus for students to bring signs to the game saying “David Irons is the best defensive player ever. Then bring a friend with you and have him hold a sign saying ‘His brother Kenny sucks’
He was being interviewed before the Cotton Bowl:
“David, if you weren’t playing football, where would you be? What would you be doing?”
“I would be working for *reads the shirt of the interviewer* ABC 33/40 out of Birmingham. And I’d be interviewing members of the Auburn football team. And I’d ask the running back, Kenny Irons, why are you the worst football player ever? Do you try to be this bad?..”
Kenny’s pretty funny too – he came into a class I have with AU wideout Courtney Taylor, sat down next to him (Kenny’s not in the class) – and asked the professor for an exam “so I can see what I made, Courtney can see what he made, and it’ll settle it once and for all I’m smarter than he is”
I’d change Stu’s lineup by moving Diaz up to 6th, then Frenchy and Thorman. Otherwise, that should be the Braves’ position-player side of the roster.
Schuerholz reminded us all this offseason that his ability to work with Bobby gives the Braves a roster they can work with. Even if he signs too many books.
Brian J.,
I’d change my line-up, too, but I was giving what the line-up will be, not what I want it to be.
Anyone see the news about the MLB extrainnings being moved to Directv? See Jayson Stark’s blog on the baseball page at espn.com. This sucks, especially with TBS scaling back it’s coverage of Braves games. Anyone have a phone number or an email address we can use to register a complaint?
I’m of the opinion that infield defense at the major league level is negligible between teams, IOW the difference between the best team and the worst is much much much less than the difference in batting or pitching in the way it costs you or wins you games.
If they’re at the MLB level, they should be able to field well enough to not noticeably cost their team games in multiples.
I basically think all defense is slightly overrated because the variation between the teams ranked first and last is not that great.
Wryn,
HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAAHHAAHAHHAHA! That is HILARIOUS! Great stories!
This has nothing to with the Braves or sports at all, so I’m going to post it…;)
The Enforcer
Sudden Impact
Dirty Harry at Night
Dirty Harry “Do You Feel Lucky”
Watch this closely, loud, its funny, look at the guy in the blue shirt….
I think you’re totally wrong, Chief. What is not generally realized is that a lot of what is traditionally described as “pitching” is in fact defense; maybe as much as a third of the variation, though I doubt it’s that great. The biggest difference between the Tim Hudson of 2005 and the Tim Hudson of 2006 is the difference between Rafael Furcal’s range and Edgar Renteria’s. Chuck James would not have done nearly as well without the league’s best defensive outfield behind him.
Defense in left field is probably not so important.
Defense isn’t as important as starting pitching, Great defense can withstand a bit of shelling the ball through some great plays, but better pitching which leads to routine grounders, and flys etc. along with strikeouts and betetr situations is what helps you to win….
Having AJ back there saved us 1 runs every 3-4 games, but let me tell you allowing 6 runs per game is better than 6.5, but not exactly quality pitching if you get my drift…Seriously, this is the Braves, anything over 3.7 per 9 is unacceptable.
I’m of the old, new, old chool of thinking, Score as many runs as possible, however a way that needs to be done…situations require different applications, get the talent to do it, use it….etc.
A Bunch of 5 tool players, a big slugger, solid defense, lockdown bullpen, 2 great starters, 3 others who just have stuff that is at least above {Name Redacted}’s level…and are mentally superior to Dan “The Blwon Save Man” Kolb…In Short Two A to A+ Starters and some B- guys who done wilher under pressure but give up 3-4 runs consistently every outing and 6-7 innings…You’ll win, big….
Yeah, I can’t see Hudson’s crappiness being attributed to bad infield defense. It sounds like a cop-out to me. There’s no way the difference in Furcal’s and Renteria’s range made that much difference in his ERA. Everybody else was the same if you think about it. LaRoche was worse but Giles was better. Chipper was Chipper for his 100 games. The other 3Bs couldn’t have made THAT much of a difference. I just don’t see it. And even then, if outfield defense is so important, then why isn’t 1/3 of it (left field) as important as center and especially right? If you have a roughly equal proportion on your spray chart, a crappy right fielder is just as bad as a crappy left fielder, and vice versa.
@47
Hudson had 2.22 gound balls for every fly ball. I think Mac has a point.
Guess who had 2.50 ground balls for every fly in 2005? 😛
Furcal made 5.23 plays per nine innings in 2005.
Renteria made 4.15 plays per nine innings in 2006.
That’s more than a play per game; a huge difference, and more likely to come into play (ha!) when Hudson is pitching. Hudson had to get an extra out a game — more than that, really — in 2006.
I’m not saying that this is all the difference; I’m saying that it’s the biggest difference. He allowed a few more homers (25 in 218 innings, versus 20 in 192) and a few more walks. (On the other hand, his strikeouts were up.) The second-biggest difference is probably also defense — Marcus played somewhat worse in the field in 2006 than in 2005, though not nearly as big of a difference as at short.
Wryn, great irons’ stories. did you read the chat?
Ernie Johnson, Skip Caray, Pete Van Wieren, circa 1970
http://photos-071.ak.facebook.com/ip002/v56/120/38/12619154/n12619154_32426071_771.jpg
Cutting edge, eh?
94.9 The Bull and the Braves Radio Network will carry 12 pre-season Braves games, including two exhibition games vs. the Chicago White Sox at Turner Field. Legendary Braves announcers Skip Caray and Pete Van Wieren will call the action.
3/3 vs. Houston Astros (1:05pm)
3/4 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (1:10pm)
3/10 vs. Toronto Blue Jays (1:05pm)
3/11 vs. St. Louis Cardinals (1:05pm)
3/15 vs. New York Yankees (7:15pm)
3/16 vs. St. Louis Cardinals (7:05pm)
3/17 vs. St. Louis Cardinals (1:05pm)
3/21 vs. Washington Nationals (7:05pm)
3/25 vs. Washington Nationals (1:05pm)
3/27 vs. Detroit Tigers (7:05pm)
3/30 vs. Chicago White Sox (7:05pm) @ Turner Field
3/31 vs. Chicago White Sox (1:05pm) @ Turner Field
* I accidentally posted this in the last thread*
Yes, I read some of the chat, great stuff, eh?
“I will just mention that Hudson’s best game of the year…”
What about that complete game, one-hit shutout against the Rockies in early May?
I think I read somewhere the Braves will have a spring training game against the Pirates on ESPN on March 2.
I totally agree with Mac; good pitching goes along with good defense unless you have someone like Randy Johnson in his prime. The more games I go to in person (at RFK), the more I realize how dependent pitchers are on their defense and, frankly, on luck. If you have a lousy defense, balls are going to go through that might not, and then, you have a snowball effect. I don’t think Hudson’s bad year can be explained entirely by bad defense because he made lots of bad pitches, but the mor ehitters a pitcher has to face (because the defense couldn’t get to a ball), the better the chance that he will make a mistake and get hurt. A Smoltz might be able to overcome that; but most of the Braves pitchers are going to be hurt a lot.